“Subprime Was The Tip Of The Iceberg”.... “Prime Will Be Far Bigger In Its Impact.”

Nothing really new but sometimes it is always good to get an update on the ongoing residential housing bust..... Scary that there are still some bottom callers out there..... I really hope that they have always put their money where their mouth was during their perma-bottom-calls.....

Das nachfolgende Posting liefert nicht wirklich bahnbrechend Neues und soll in erster Linie ein Update in Sachen US Wohnimmobilienmarkt geben. Denke hier werden all diejenigen die schon fast penetrant den Boden ausrufen als Phantasten entlarvt. Wenn man jetzt bedenkt das der Verfall im gewerblichen Sektor gerade erst Fahrt aufnimmt erscheinen einige bullische Kommentare in einem noch fragwürdigerem Licht...... Kein noch so großer Bailout kann die dringend notwendige Bereinigung verhindern.... Bin sogar der Meinung das je länger die Korrektur durch die "Eingriffe" verlängert wird desto größer wird der volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtschaden letztendlich sein. Da aber in der Realität immer irgendwelche Wahlen anstehen muß man wie die aktuellen Beispiele zeigen mit dem Schlimmsten rechnen.....

Housing Lenders Fear Bigger Wave of Loan Defaults NYT
The first wave of Americans to default on their home mortgages appears to be cresting, but a second, far larger one is quickly building

The percentage of mortgages in arrears in the category of loans one rung above subprime, so-called alternative-A mortgages, quadrupled to 12 percent in April from a year earlier. Delinquencies among prime loans, which account for most of the $12 trillion market, doubled to 2.7 percent in that time.

Delinquencies on mortgages tend to peak three to five years after loans are made....

Prime and alt-A borrowers typically had a five- or seven-year grace period before payments toward principal were required. By contrast, subprime loans had a two-to-three-year introductory period. That difference partly explains the lag in delinquencies between the two types of loans, said David Watts, an analyst with CreditSights

> You don´t need to be a genius to figure out will happen during the next few years..... The following quotes from Calculated Risk sums it up

> Denke hier braucht man nun wirklich kein Genie zu sein um zuerkennen das die nächsten Jahre brutal werden. Der nachfolgende Kommentar von Calculated Risk dürfte zutreffen.....

I think the second wave of foreclosures will be smaller in numbers, as compared to the largely subprime first wave, but the price of each home will be much higher. And the second wave will impact prices in the mid-to-high end areas, as opposed to the subprime foreclosures impacting prices in the low end areas.

Barry Ritholtz on "perma-bottom-callers"

Wishful thinking is never a substitute for reviewing the actual data;
thoughtful analysis is better than cheerleading

UPDATE: Click trough pages 61 & 62 from the HSBC Earnings Release to get an up to date picture of their US mortgages, consumer lending, credit card and vehicles credit book.... I also want to highlight page 12 & 13. They are showing the credit trends worldwide ( personal & commercial ) ...... Watch Latin America ( mainly related to Mexico ) ......

UPDATE: Passendweise hat gerade HSBC berichtet. In diesem Report findest man auf den Seiten 61 & 62 Daten nette Charts zu der US Kreditqualität quer durch alle Sektoren ( Kreditkarten , PKW Finanzierungen usw ). Darüberhinaus sollte man einen Blick auf die Seiten 12 & 13 werfen. Hier werden die weltweiten Rsikovorsorgen für den privaten und den gewerblichen Sektor aufgeschlüsselt. Hier sticht besonders und für mich etwas überracshend der starke Anstieg in Süd Amerika hervor ( Lt. Telefonkonferenz überwiegend Mexico )...... Die 200% Aufstockung der Risikovorsorge im gewerblichen US Bereich dürfte erst der Anfang sein.....

Small Banks' Reckoning Day Is Coming

Does anyone believe Bernanke that the economy is on the way to recovery...... I cannot wait for the delinquency rates 12 month from now ( especailly in the condo segment ) . More from Mish Four Dozen Georgia Banks On Problem List , Phoenix Commercial Real Estate Financier Files Bankruptcy & the WSJ BofA, LaSalle Pact Boosts Problem-Loan Load via Calculated Risk

Diese Thematik ist in Deutschland bisher nicht sonderlich behandelt worden. In unsere Schlagzeilen schaffen es meist nur die großen Investmentbanken und die Bankentitel die sich im S&P 500 tummeln. Mindestens ebenso bedeutend ist aber für das volkswirtschaftliche Bild was sich unter dem Radar bei den regionalen Instituten abspielt. Und hier droht die "Auffanggesellschaft" FDIC ( vergleichbar mit dem Bankensicherungsfonds ) eine fast nicht zu meisternde Aufgabe. Kein Wunder das hier seit Monaten verzweifelt Restrukturierungs und Abwicklungsexperten angeheurt werden um mit den Bankenpleiten fertig zu werden. Schon fast mitleidig zu beobachten wie die Fed und Bernanke hier die Wirtschaft schon wieder auf dem aufsteigenden Ast sehen. Ich hoffe eindringlich das dies wider besseren Wissen geschieht. Bin mir nach den bisherigen permanenten Fehleinschätziungen dieser Clowns da nicht so sicher. Mehr zu diesem Thema gibt es mal wieder vom unermüdlichen Mish Four Dozen Georgia Banks On Problem List & Phoenix Commercial Real Estate Financier Files Bankruptcy sowie dem WSJ BofA, LaSalle Pact Boosts Problem-Loan Load via Calculated Risk. Man darf sich schon einmal auf den Chart in 12 Monaten freuen.....

Small Banks' Reckoning Day Is Coming WSJ

Billions in Troubled Construction Loans Promise to Pose Test for Regional Lenders

According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., $45.4 billion of the $631.8 billion in construction loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter were delinquent ....

Scores of banks were already suffering headaches by the end of the first quarter, according to a review by The Wall Street Journal of FDIC-filed reports by 6,919 banks that make construction loans. The smallest banks, those with total assets of less than $5 billion, faced the biggest problems ...

Nearly one in three of the banks analyzed -- or 2,182 -- had construction-loan portfolios that exceeded 100% of their total risk-based capital, a red flag to regulators, although it doesn't mean the bank is in danger of failing. ...

Even more alarming, 73 of those banks had construction-loan delinquency rates of more than 25%. Executives at all of the banks that responded to questions acknowledged the problems but expressed confidence they had the capital to weather the storm. ....

In 2007 and the first quarter of this year, U.S. banks wrote down just 0.7% of their residential construction and land assets as bad debt, according to Zelman & Associates, a research firm. Over the next five years that figure could rise to 10% and 26%, which would amount to about $65 billion to $165 billion, Zelman projects. ....

> Enjoy the must see clip from Asia on how the landscape/skyline can look like after the bubble has burst.....

> Das nachfolgende Video zeigt eindrucksvoll wie es demnächst wohl auch in einigen Teilen der USA aussehen dürfte.....

Here is one hot candidate for a ghost tower Bangkok stlye..... Leaning Tower of Padre

Hier ein ganz heißer Kandidat für die US Version ..... Leaning Tower of Padre

One City Suffers In Silence.....

As i´ve said over and over again..."The Daily Show Rocks!"

Denke das wir hier ebenfalls eine solch geartete Sendung vertragen könnten. Die Politiker liefern momentan mehr als genug Monition um ein stundenlanges Programm zu füllen......

Larry Wilmore travels to Beverly Hills to show how the city of glamour and excess has been hard-hit by the recession.

Bernanke vs Greenspan

Amazing that everybody wants to believe that Ben "Core" Bernanke has become an inflation hawk over night..... The only reason this guy is talking tough is that the $ is crashing further and the ECB is forcing him to act. But so far the Fed din´t act and i refuse to believe it until i see it confirmed from at least three sources.... :-) Especially in the face of the ongoing recession....... Disclosure : I´m with Mish´s definition on Inflation ( see Inflation: What the heck is it? ) . It seems i´m not the only one who is sceptical... Make sure you read the rant from Tim / The Mess That Greenspan Made Fisher: Silly interest rate talk

Überraschend das irgendeiner zumindest auf dieser Welt die Aussagen von Ben "Core" Bernanke in Sachen Inflationsbekämpfung für bare Münze nimmt..... Der einzige Grund warum praktisch über Nacht der Falke in Ihm erwacht zu sein scheint ist wohl der EZB zu verdanken die die Fed zum Handeln zwingen wird um einen totalen Kollaps des $ zu verhindern. Ich glaube aus Erfahrung keinerlei Rethorik die aus den Mündern von US Notenbänkern kommt und bin gespannt ob den hohlen Phrasen ausnahmsweise auch mal Taten folgen werden. Glaube das erst wenn ich das von mindestens drei unabhängigen Quellen bestätigt bekomme..... :-) Besonders dann nicht wenn die Erhöhungen im Angesicht einer üblen Rezession erfolgen. Hinweis : Bekanntermaßen sehe ich die Definition von Inflation wie Mish ( siehe Inflation: What the heck is it? ) . Sieht ganz so aus als wenn nicht nur ich der einzige ist der eine gewisse Skepsis an den Tag legt..... Empfehle hier den Rundumschlag von Tim / The Mess That Greenspan Made Fisher: Silly interest rate talk

via Calculated Risk Tim Duy: Fed Between a Rock and ...

Bottom Line: The Fed has no one to blame for their predicament but themselves. Bernanke & Co. cut rates too deeply, fighting a battle against deflation that never was. Now they are backed into a corner; either raise rates and risk upsetting a very fragile economy, or stay the path and risk the inflationary consequences.

AMEN!

About 1 in 11 Mortgageholders Face Loan Problems

"Contained" :-) ...... No wonder the market was up yesterday......

Kein Wunder das der Markt gestern so freundlich war....... Jeder der denkt das die Krise im US Finanzsektor überstanden ist sollte sich die nachfolgende Grafik sehr genau ansehen. Finanztitel sollte man nach wie vor nicht mal mit der Kneifzange anfassen.

About 1 in 11 Mortgageholders Face Loan Problems NYT


grösser/bigger

US House Prices Falling Faster Than During The Great Depression

Unbelievable that 95 percent of so called "Experts" didn´t see this coming....... These are often the same that are now calling for the bottom and are declaring the recession that never was is already over......

Unfassbar das selbst im Jahr 2006/2007 95% der sogennaten Experten das Unheil nicht haben kommen sehen.... In der Regel sind das dieselben "..............." ( möchte höflich bleiben ) die den Boden gesehen haben und die nicht vorhanden gewesene Rezession als beendet erklären.....

Economist America's house prices are falling even faster than during the Great Depression

AS HOUSE prices in America continue their rapid descent, market-watchers are having to cast back ever further for gloomy comparisons. The latest S&P/Case-Shiller national house-price index, published this week, showed a slump of 14.1% in the year to the first quarter, the worst since the index began 20 years ago. Now Robert Shiller, an economist at Yale University and co-inventor of the index, has compiled a version that stretches back over a century. This shows that the latest fall in nominal prices is already much bigger than the 10.5% drop in 1932, the worst point of the Depression. And things are even worse than they look. In the deflationary 1930s house prices declined less in real terms. Today inflation is running at a brisk pace, so property prices have fallen by a staggering 18% in real terms over the past year.

The Flexible Friend.....Some Credit Card Data

Thank god the credit crisis and the recession that never started are already over.....But i assume it´s hard even for a bull trying to explain the already sky high delinquency rate.... Nice to see that the Fed ( just a few weeks ago ) and other central banks are willing to take the securitized credit card debt as collateral. Lets hope the haircut will be big enough and the way too often toxic waste won´t be rolled over indefintely.......... This post ECB Concerned Over Swap-O-Rama Exit Strategy from Mish is showing that there are already schemes in place to "design" securities to limit the haircut & to make them available as collateral . One more reason to be bullish on gold.... Especially when you take a look at this graph Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

Gottseidank ist die Kreditkrise und die nicht eingetroffenen Rezession bereits vorbei....... Dann aber sollten die bereits jetzt astronomischen Rückstandsraten bei den Kreditkarten selbst für die Daueroptimisten aber für noch mehr Beunruhigung sorgen. Immerhin ist es gut zu wissen das zur Not die Fed ( erst seit einigen Wochen ) und andere Zentralbanken auch die verbrieften Kreditkartenforderungen als Sicherheit akzeptieren. Bleibt nur zu hoffen das die angenommenen Risikoabschläge ausreichend sein werden und das diese oft fragwürdigen Papiere nicht auf alle Ewigkeit prolongiert werden ..... Wie dieses Posting ECB Concerned Over Swap-O-Rama Exit Strategy von Mish zeigt hat es nicht lange gedauert bis die Marktteilnehmer Strategien entwickelt haben um dieses System zu Ihren Gunsten zu nutzen. Wenn man das mit einem Blick auf die grafische Darstellung der FED Bilanz kombiniert hat man leicht einen gewichtigen Grund mehr langfristig eine bullishe Meinung zum Gold zu haben....UPDATE: Das paßt wie die Faust auf Auge.....Zentralbanken können auch bankrottgehen FAZ & Sind Verbraucherkredite der nächste Krisenherd? FT Deutschland
Credit-Card Firms May Look Alluring, But Threats Loom WSJ
The quickest way to pay top dollar for something you don't need is to make an impulse buy on your credit card. Investors eyeing shares in credit-card companies as a quick way to profit from an economic recovery should also resist the temptation to buy right now.

A growing feeling that stand-alone credit-card lenders will weather the economic slowdown has started to lift shares in firms like American Express Co., Discover Financial Services and Capital One Financial Corp.

But recent credit-card data indicate that none of the big card companies -- including the large card units at banks like Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. -- are in the clear. Rising defaults could weigh on earnings for longer than expected.

Since the credit crisis began, investors have expected rising charge-offs -- the term given for losses caused by defaults -- at credit-card companies. Two big negatives were identified: Job losses and, for many borrowers, a sharply reduced ability to use home-equity loans to pay off more expensive card balances.

Credit did deteriorate. Moody's Investors Service reports that, for the card lenders it tracks, the annualized charge-off rate -- which measures defaults as a percentage of loans outstanding -- rose to 6.05% in March from 4.64% a year earlier. The charge-off rate peaked at just over 7% during the 1991 and 2001 recessions, according to Moody's.

Credit-card bulls -- believing that a recession may be avoided -- think charge-offs won't go to recession highs. If so, firms like Capital One could look forward to sharply higher earnings as lower defaults would allow lenders to ease off on the expense of building their loan-loss reserves.

But two key data points indicate defaults climbing higher, not falling fast.

First, card borrowers are starting to pay back less of their outstanding balances each month. Analysts at Oppenheimer & Co. say that a sustained decline in the amount borrowers repay each month, compared with a year-earlier, can be a leading indicator that borrowers will start to fall behind on payments.

Oppenheimer calculates that, for the companies it covers, borrowers paid back 19% of their balance on average in April, down from 19.7% in the year-earlier period. American Express's borrowers paid down 23.8% of their balances in April, down from 25% a year ago, according to Oppenheimer. Conversely, Capital One borrowers paid down 18.5% of their balances last month, up from 17.6% a year earlier.

Also worrisome are data from Moody's suggesting that borrowers are finding it harder to become current on credit-card loans once they fall behind. The ratings firm notes that the amount of loans on which borrowers have skipped three or more payments has started to rise more quickly than loans that have missed one or two. Once borrowers are three payments behind, fewer of them ever catch up.

Federal Reserve data say revolving credit outstanding -- which tracks credit-card balances -- increased 6.7% in the first quarter, compared with the year-earlier period. Borrowers are taking on more debt to support spending through the slowdown.
It's a gamble for card companies to lend more to people who are turning to relatively expensive debt because they're cash strapped.

And it's a bad bet for investors to load up on the card companies taking that gamble.

HUNGER PANGS : Restaurants Feel Sting Of Surging Costs, Debt

Add the latest news from Starbucks to the mix and is getting harder almost on a daily basis even for permabulls to spin things in their favour..... Needless to say that this will put massive pressure on the commercial real estate market.....

Nimmt man noch die gestrige Warnung von Starbucks hinzu wird es selbst für den versiertesten Daueroptimisten immer schwieriger die Dinge in einem positiven Licht erscheinen zu lassen....Da lag ich mit meinem Kommentar aus den Anfängen des Blogs Mitte 2006 wohl doch nicht ganz verkehrt...starbucks / sbux als barometer . Überflüssig zu erwähnen das diese Entwicklung heftigen Druck auf den gewerblichen Immobiliensektor ausüben wird.....

Starbucks
Citing "the sharp weakness in the U.S. consumer environment," ... Starbucks said U.S. comparable-store sales fell by the mid-single digits on a percentage basis amid lower traffic. ...

Thanks to Matt Davies

HUNGER PANGS: Restaurants Feel Sting Of Surging Costs, Debt WSJ - The $558 billion restaurant industry is hitting rough times, squeezed by many of the same woes affecting other sectors of the economy: tightfisted consumers, scarce credit and surging commodity prices. Adding to the pressure is a big jump in the minimum wage starting this summer, which will boost wages by 12% in some states.

That's sent the industry into its worst slump in decades. Many chains have scaled back expansion plans or cut costs by skimping on things like extra sauce and free sour cream. Some are shuttering sites and laying off workers. Private-equity firms, which plunged into the business earlier this decade using gobs of borrowed money, are now especially vulnerable as those debts come due.

This week's earnings results, despite some glimmers of good news, paint a sobering picture. McDonald's Corp., the world's largest restaurant chain, saw U.S. sales at restaurants open at least 13 months fall 0.8% in March, the first decline in monthly same-store sales in five years

The slowdown has broad implications for the economy. The industry employs 13.1 million people, making it the nation's third-largest employer, behind the U.S. government and the health-care industry, according to the National Restaurant Association, a trade group. Many of those jobs are held by the poor and immigrants who have few other options for work.

> Keep this in mind when the BLS will still be reporting job gains in the birth death model .... Heren is more on the BLS Black Box via Mish

> Behaltet das im Hinterkopf wenn in den nächsten Monaten das Bureau of Labor Statistics trotzdem noch immer massive Jobzuwächse in diesem Segment berichten wird.... Kann jedem empfehlen BLS Black Box von Mish zu lesen. Mit dieser Methodik hätten auch wir in Deutschland gute Chancen auf eine Vollbeschäftigung.....

Moody's Investors Service has downgraded seven prominent national and regional chains, including Landry's Restaurants and the parent of Pizzeria Uno, to its lowest liquidity rating -- the most restaurants to be given this rating at once since it was created in 2002.

Restaurants overexpanded in recent years, too. There were 524,286 eating and drinking places in the U.S. in 2006 -- a 45% increase from 1990, according to the National Restaurant Association. The U.S. population rose 20% during that period, according to census figures.

In part because of the glut, overall same-store sales at about 70 restaurant chains were flat or down in the fourth quarter, says Wachovia Capital Markets. Dips are rare in a business that has seen growth in all but two of the past 26 years, according to Wachovia.

> Now to the private equity part with all their "smart" money.........

> Nun zum Teil der sich mit den "smarten" Private Equity Investoren befasst....

At Vicorp -- which owns 400-plus Village Inn and Bakers Square restaurants in cities like Chicago, Denver and Phoenix -- chief executive Ken Keymer is trying to adapt and wring out costs one ounce at a time

Same-store sales at both Village Inn and Bakers Square declined, and a slight profit in 2005 turned to growing losses the next two years. Through the first nine months of 2007, Vicorp had a loss of $20.9 million on sales of $336 million. Vicorp's debt-to-equity level ballooned from four times to 10 times on its $127 million in public debt.

Like many restaurant chains, Vicorp was a target of private-equity investors earlier this decade, which loaded it up with debt the company later couldn't cover. Flush with cash in the past few years, private-equity funds saw restaurants as relatively cheap investments that could potentially be turned around quickly by a management change or new menu concept.

Consumer Spending Break-Down / Hester

Nice quote via William Hester from his piece Consumer Spending Break-Down .

Nettes Zitat via William Hester aus Consumer Spending Break-Down

Following a Bull's game in the 90's where Michael Jordan scored 69 points and the newly acquired Stacey King contributed one point, the rookie quipped, “I'll always remember this as the night Michael Jordan and I combined to score 70 points.” Whether you're handicapping basketball games or the economy, it's always best to figure out how the major producer will perform.

It´s still amazing that some are still in denial.....

Schon erschreceknd das bei den meisten "Experten" der Groschen noch immer nicht gefallen ist.....

A quick look at economist's expectations for the economy this year shows that much is riding on the forecast of a mild slowdown. The level of GDP should be essentially unchanged the first two quarters of this year, and then expand at almost 2 percent in the second half, according to a Bloomberg poll. Underlying those estimates is the forecast for spending to grow at an average rate of one half percent in each of the first two quarters, and at about 2 percent in the second half

But they are probably betting on the never ending story of creative accounting from the government level ( Pre-Revision CPI: 9%, Disappearing Economic Indicators, Unemployment Soars, Jobs Collapse etc ) to mask the real damage. At least the officials haven´t gotten so far as the pentagon ( Behind Analysts, the Pentagon’s Hidden Hand )..... :-)

Wahrscheinlich werden hier schon die "kreativen" Berechnungsmethoden von Staatsseite eingepreist ( Pre-Revision CPI: 9%,Disappearing Economic Indicators, Unemployment Soars, Jobs Collapse usw ) die nur ein Ziel haben die Wirklichkeit in einem besseren Licht erscheinen zu lassen. Das mag kurzfristig sogar funktionieren, mittel bis längerfristig wird hier aber enormer Schaden angerichtet. Immerhin sind Sie noch nicht soweit wie das Pentagon gegangen (Bush kaufte TV-Militärexperten ).... Obwohl ich ir da auch nicht immer ganz sicher bin .... :-)

Workers Get Fewer Hours, Deepening the Downturn

The report from the NYT offers some good hints what is going on beneath the radar. Add to this that the reported jobs numbers are more or less a farce and you know why the recession that already started will be much longer than most people think. Scary that some are still in denial ....

Make sure to read this from Mish about the "Enron" like unemployment data Unemployment Soars, Jobs Collapse. Even i would have thought that this kind of Black Box report is almost impossible to top, but wait...... Martin Hutchinson via Barry Ritholtz Pre-Revision CPI: 9% has made it...... UPDATE: More unbelievable stuff via Barry Disappearing Economic Indicators

Dieser kleine Lagebericht der NYT gibt einen guten Einblick was sich unterhalb der nackten Zahlen so abspielt.Wenn man jetzt noch bedenkt das die monatlich verkündeten Daten zum US Arbeitsmarkt bestenfalls was in der Muppetshow zu suchen haben und Enron in nichts nachstehen kann man sich sehr leicht ausrechnen das die USA für lange lange Zeit in einer bereits begonnenene Rezession stecken werden. Muß jedes mal wieder schmunzeln wenn ich höre das noch über die Möglichkeit einer Rezession gesprochen wird. Immerhin scheint sich bei einigen die Meinung zu verfestigen das diese "mild" sein wird. Sind halt "Permabullen".... :-)

Um zu verstehen wie die US Arbeitsmarktzahlen frisiert werden ist der nachfolgende Link von Mish Unemployment Soars, Jobs Collapse Pflicht! Und immer wenn man denkt man hätte in Scahen US Zahlenakrobatik alles gesehen kommt ein neues "Highlight. Dieses Mal von Martin Hutchinson via Barry Ritholtz Pre-Revision CPI: 9% UPDATE: Mehr selbst für mich kaum fassbares erneut von Barry Disappearing Economic Indicators

Workers Get Fewer Hours, Deepening the Downturn NYT
Not long ago, overtime was a regular feature at the Ludowici Roof Tile factory in eastern Ohio. Not anymore. With orders scarce and crates of unsold tiles piling up across the yard, the company has slowed production and cut working hours, sowing worry and thrift among its workers.

“We don’t just hop in the car and go shopping or get something to eat,” said Kim Baker, whose take-home pay at the plant has recently dropped to $450 a week, from more than $600. “You’ve got to watch everything. If we go to town now, it’s for a reason.”

“We don’t just hop in the car and go shopping or get something to eat,” said Kim Baker, whose take-home pay at the plant has recently dropped to $450 a week, from more than $600. “You’ve got to watch everything. If we go to town now, it’s for a reason.”

The gradual erosion of the paycheck has become a stealth force driving the American economic downturn. Most of the attention has focused on the loss of jobs and the risk of layoffs. But the less-noticeable shrinking of hours and pay for millions of workers around the country appears to be a bigger contributor to the decline, which has already spread from housing and finance to other important areas of the economy.

While official unemployment has risen only modestly, to 5.1 percent, the reduction of wages and working hours for those still employed has become a primary cause of distress, pushing many more Americans into a downward spiral, economists say.

Last month, the hours worked by those on American payrolls dropped, compared with six months earlier, according to an index maintained by the Labor Department. The last time the index moved into negative territory was February 2001, when the economy was on the doorstep of recession. A similar slide emerged in August 1990, one month into what proved an even more severe downturn.

At the end of last month, more than 4.9 million people were working part time either because they could not find full-time jobs or because their companies had cut hours in the face of slack business, according to a Labor Department survey. That represented an increase of 400,000 since November.

Paychecks are diminishing just as millions of Americans are finding their access to credit constricted as well. Borrowing against the value of real estate — a crucial artery of household finance in recent years — has been pared back as home prices have plummeted and as banks have tightened lending standards in the aftermath of the collapse of the housing bubble.

“At this point, those avenues are blocked,” said Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the labor-oriented Economic Policy Institute in Washington. “Consumption going forward is going to be in large part a good old-fashioned function of paychecks and incomes.”

Even before the rollback in working hours, pay was barely keeping up with the rising costs of gas and food. From February to September of last year, the average hourly earnings for workers in the private sector was still growing at a slightly faster clip than the pace of inflation, according to the Labor Department. But from November through March, as employers began to scale back in a variety of ways, wage growth fell below the pace of inflation, meaning that paychecks were effectively shrinking.

> And this even on the base of the "reported" CPI ...

> Und das auf bereits auf Basis der absolut lächerlichen offiziellen CPI Nummer.....

Now, work opportunities are themselves declining, as the downturn snuffs out business

"Absolutely Optimistic...." Colbert Translating Bush

Compared to "Wall Steet Finest" Bush is sounding rather conservative....Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz

Im Vergleich zu "Wall Steet Finest" klingt Bush sogar noch moderat......Dank an Barry Ritholtz

Sustainable?

I must admit that i havn´t heard of this indicator before. I especially like the long time view. The chart is clearly showing that something isn´t working.... Keep this in mind when the spin masters once again point to the "stronger than ever balance sheets" and that companies are awash in cash etc......This is coming from the same guys that said the same thing about the banks balance sheets 12 month ago...... But when you believe the experts news like Capital access: US drops from global top 10 shouldn´t be worrisome.... ;-).......

This graph from the FT Germany is showing the difference from the cashflow minus capital spending, dividends & net equity emissions from non financials vs the national income....

On top of this they are pointing out that the S&P 500 is currently trading at 20.4 time 2008 estimated GAAP earnings.....So much for the "cheap market" spin that is still en vogue....

And we all know that the estimates from Wall Street Finest are still way too high.

Examples like The Great Private Equity Cash Robbery of 2007 from & Big Buybacks Begin to Haunt Firms from Jeff Matthews may explain why the balance is looking so streched......

GAAP tut ganz schön weh FTD Kapital
Tut man es frecherweise doch, schaut man bei der Recherche zunächst mal ziemlich verdutzt aus der Wäsche. Laut S&P notiert der S&P 500 nämlich sage und schreibe mit dem 20,4-Fachen des geschätzten US-GAAP-Gewinns - von 2008. Selbstredend kann man diese Zahlen nicht ernst nehmen, da die Gewinnschätzungen ja durch die - ganz bestimmt nur vorübergehenden - Kalamitäten im Finanzsektor entstellt sind.

> Hier ein Beispiel von Wall Street Finest das zudem zeigt wie abseits aller Realität selbst die Schätzungen für 08 sind.

> Zudem empfehle ich jedem The Great Private Equity Cash Robbery of 2007 & Big Buybacks Begin to Haunt Firms von Jeff Matthews zumindest eine Teilerklärung dafür zu finden warum die Bilanz des Charts so übel aussieht.

Probieren wir es also mit einem anderen herkömmlichen Bewertungsansatz: der Dividendenrendite.

Doch gemessen an Zahlungen über die vergangenen vier Quartale beträgt auch die weiterhin gerade mal zwei Prozent, wobei ironischerweise der Finanzsektor mit einer Rendite von 3,3 Prozent hervorsticht und insofern nur noch vom Telekomsektor überboten wird. Legt man die Dividendenerwartungen für 2008 zugrunde, ergibt sich für den S&P 500 eine Rendite von 2,2 Prozent. Schön, aber wenn in Europa 3,8 Prozent winken, dürfte man von Amerika doch wohl zumindest drei Prozent erwarten. Nur müsste der S&P 500 schon dafür um gut ein Fünftel fallen.

Nicht doch, werden viele nun einwenden. Immerhin kaufen die US-Firmen Aktien zurück wie wild. Doch wie etwa die Citigroup zeigt, kann man sich darauf ebenso wenig verlassen wie auf die verheißenen Dividenden. Und wie lange werden die nichtfinanziellen US-Kapitalgesellschaften in der Kreditkrise wohl noch eine Finanzierungslücke nach Investitionen, Dividenden und Netto-Aktienrückkäufen von acht Prozent des Nationaleinkommens durchstehen? Ein paar Wochen vielleicht.

> Ich muß gestehen das mir dieser Indikator bisher noch nicht untergekommen ist. Was ihn aber besonders aussagekräftig macht ist die Tatsache das er über mehrere Jahrzehnte aufzeigt das besonders in letzter Zeit etwas nicht "gesund" ist. Behaltet das im Hinterkopf wenn mal wieder die Arien auf die so starken Bilanzen und die hohen Cashbestände von "Expertenseite" hingewiesen wird......Das sind oftmals dieselben die vor 12 Monaten identisches zu den Bankenbilanzen zu sagen hatten..... Bleibt zu hoffen das bei Meldungen wie Capital access: US drops from global top 10 die Experten nicht allzuweit daneben liegen.... ;-)

Housing Meltdown / Business Week Cover Story

You gotta give them credit for being one of the first major media outlets that had predicted some kind of trouble brewing in the housing market. Here are some examples of their earlier track record. If you don´t want to digg through the entire 5 page long lead story i suggest to skip through the slide shows ( see one example below ). I think that most of the stuff isn´t really news to reader of this blog but it is at least a good and short summary.

Man muß Business Week mal ausdrücklich ein dickes Lob aussprechen. Sie waren einer der ersten bedeutenden großen Medieninstitutionen die zeitig auf das kommende Unheil hingewiesen haben. Zum Beweis kann man hier einige Beispiele einsehen. Wenn Ihr keine Muße habt Euch durch den langen Leitartikel zu kämpfen empfehle ich alternativ sich durch die Slideshows zu klicken. Exemplarisch habe ich weiter unten ein Beispiel herausgepickt. Obwohl das Meiste dürfte den Lesern des Blogs nicht wirklich neu erscheinen so ergeben sich doch eine schöne Zusammenfassung und wagen einen wie ich finde einigermaßen realistischen Ausblick.

Housing Meltdown / Why home prices could drop 25% more on average before the market finally hits bottom Full Business Week Cover Story

Analyzing the Housing Crisis Slide Show

The 25% Dissolution Slide Show

Housing Prices Shed Gains Slide Show

Coast To Coast
A 20% decline in home prices would wipe out all of the home equity of two-thirds of all people who bought houses in the last year, Zillow.com estimates. The bars show the percentage of recent buyers in each market whose home equity would be wiped out by a further 20% price decline.

The Rise of Pawn Shops and Fringe Banking

This is probably one of the very few sectors in the US financial system with a very bright future.....Hat tip to Minyanville for digging this from the FT

Das Geschäft der Pfandleihhäuser dürfte eines der wenigen Sektoren im US Finanzsystem mit glänzenden Zukunftsperspektiven sein.... Dank geht an Minyanville für das ausgraben dieser Geschichte der FT.

US pawnbrokers benefit from hard times FT
Hard times in the US are benefiting pawnbrokers as beleaguered consumers pledge jewels, electronics and other goods in return for loans with interest rates running as high as 300 per cent a year.

Dave Adelman, president of the National Pawnbrokers Association, said the number of loans at US pawn shops had risen 15-20 per cent since October. He attributed the increase to rising fuel prices and deteriorating economic conditions – an assessment echoed by other industry executives.

“Brief and shallow downturns in the economy may benefit our business model,” said Daniel Feehan, chief executive of Cash America, the biggest US pawnbroker chain, with 942 locations. ( Cash America Presentation )

> Probably no coincident that they have entered the UK market in mid 2007....

> Sicher kein Zufall das die Mitte 2007 in den UK Markt eingetreten sind......

Pawnbrokers offer loans in return for personal items. Customers can buy back their property for the value of the loan plus a fee, which works out to an interest rate that can reach 300 per cent on an annualised basis, according to the NPA. If borrowers do not pay off the loan in a given time, the unredeemed item can be sold.

> Here comes the definition from "Cash Advance " & "Pawn" via Cash America

> Hier die Definition der Begriffe vie Cash America

Cash America said on Thursday its profits had risen 21 per cent to $26.3m in the fourth quarter, reflecting higher sales of pawned goods and more loans.

Alan Fishbein of the Consumer Federation of America said pawnbrokers and other “fringe” banking operations – such as those making loans against future pay cheques or car titles – had grown as banks had withdrawn from poorer areas. About $48bn in payday loans are made every year and the revenues in the whole fringe banking industry are an estimated $12bn-$15bn, according to Dennis Telzrow, a consumer finance analyst at Stephens, an investment bank.

An estimated 10m US households are thought to be outside the banking system, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The NPA estimates there are 12,000 to 14,000 pawnbroker shops in the US.

On Manhattan’s 47th Street, the New York block through which about 90 per cent of US diamonds are sourced, some merchants report a sharp uptick in the amount of jewellery being brought in for sale.

“Its real sad – they don’t want to sell,” said Ruben, a 52-year-old street hawker who buys jewellery from passers-by in the diamond district.

“They might have paid $150,000 for a necklace but they will get back $25,000 or $30,000 at most. But it’s either that or lose their house.”

60 Minutes Legitimizes Walking Away

I have borrowed the headline 60 Minutes Legitimizes Walking Away from Mish. He has also some more thoughts on this topic ( read also The Business of Walking Away ) . Also a hat tip to my friends from Housing Doom for digging the Youtube version. I hope this clip shows especially the European visitors how bleak the reality looks like and why we are still in the beginning of this painful process of the "correction". Lots of Germans ( including Landesbanker like West LB , Sachsen LB, IKB etc.) can´t understand that it is possible to just "walk away" from the house without facing consequences for the rest of their lifetime like here in Germany.

Dank geht an Mish für die "geborgte" Überschrift die eine ganz neue Dynamik in den "Anpassungsprozeß" der US Immobilienkrise bringen wird . Hier weitere Gedanken von Mish The Business of Walking Away . Zudem dank an Housing Doom für das aufstöbern der Youtube Version.

Nur zur Erläuterung muß erklärt werden das anders als in Deutschland die Haftungen in großen Teilen der USA und insbesondere in den Hochburgen wie Kalifornien bei einer Zwangsvollstreckung komplett anders als zum Beispiel in Deutschland gestaltet sind. Dort wird nur mit der Immobilie gehaftet. Das ist gleichbedeutend damit das selbst wenn die Immobile unter den Hammer kommt und die Bank wie momentan üblich gigantische Verluste macht der Schuldner nicht für diesen Verlust einzustehen hat.

Praktisch, oder?

Würde mal tippen, das auch dieses Neuland für die Manager der Landesbanken ist ( siehe Sachsen LB, West LB , IKB usw ) Sinnvollerweise haben die Verantwortlichen oftmals gleich die ganze Bank aufs Spiel gesetzt um auch ja genug US Hypothekenpapiere zu erwerben.....

So kommt es vor das zum Beispiel wenn ein Haus auf der gegenüberliegenden Straßenseite für 300.000 $ zum Verkauf steht und man für sein eigenes Objekt mit 400.000 $ in der Kreide steht ( Eigenkapital war ja zum Glück dank der wahnwitzigen Finanzierungen in den letzten Jahren aus der Mode gekommen ) es nur logisch ist das neue Objekt zu erwerben und das andere in die Zwangsvollstreckung gehen zu lassen. Der damit ruinierte Creditscore sollte bei dieser Ersparniss nicht weiter ins Gewicht fallen. Noch besser wird es wenn man es sogar geschafft hat während Zeiten steigender Immopreise die Refinanzierungskeule zu schwingen und siene Immobilien mit immer neuen Hypotheken zu belasten. Welch gigantische Ausmaße das ganze in der Verganheit angenommen hat zeigt eindrucksvoll dieser Chart.

Schweizer Ansichten von meinen geschätzen Bloggerkollegen gibt es auf Zeitenwende

Have A Nice Weekend

Posting will be light until Monday. I suggest to read The Great Private Equity Cash Robbery of 2007 from one of my favourite bloggers Jeff Matthews and the excellent summary from FT Alphaville on monolines The bond insurers, a $200bn problem and Wilbur Ross

Werde bis Anfang nächster Woche wohl nicht zum bloggen kommen. Kann bis dahin jedem wärmstens The Great Private Equity Cash Robbery of 2007 von einem meiner liebsten Blogger Jeff Matthews empfehlen sowie die erstklassige Zusammenfassung von FT Alphaville zum Thema der Anleiheversicherer The bond insurers, a $200bn problem and Wilbur Ross

Enjoy Cramer vs Santelli ! A must see!!


Here are some thoughts on the "stimulus plan"....

Nachfolgend ein paar Gedanken zum gefeierten Plan zur Stimulierung der US Wirtschaft.....

Thanks to John Darkow

Hat tip to Matt Davis

Time For Another Greenspan Book......

Coming soon......... If you can stand more from Greenspan click here . I assume the only reason why several companies like Pimco, Deutsche & Co have signed him up is to bet against his view..... ;-) . I also suggest to read this very funny piece A possible addition to Greenspan's client list from Caroline Baum via Tim.

Dürfte wohl sehr bald erscheinen..... Wenn Ihr mehr vom angeblich größten Notenbänker aller Zeiten vertragen könnt empfehlen ich diesen Link . Der einzige Grund warum Firmen wie Pimco, Deutsche & Co AG angeheuert haben dürfte wohl die Überlegung sein um gegen seine "Expertenmeinung" zu wetten..... ;-) . Zudem kann ich diesen löstlichen Link A possible addition to Greenspan's client list von Caroline Baum via Tim ans Herz legen.

Have a nice weekend

Allen ein schönes Wochenende

Financial Markets Anticipate Recessions Before They are Obvious / Hussman

I agree with Hussman that the US is very close to a recession. I´m not so sure if the stock market is a good indicator. To my experience the market only reacts when the obvious is no longer to hide and every spin attempt has failed.....

I stimme mit Hussman überein das die USA sich schon nahe einer Rezession befinden. Allerdings glaube ich nach meinen Erfahrungen nicht das der Aktienmarkt irgendeine verläßliche Aussagekraft in diesem Zusammenhang geben kann. Der reagiert erst dann wenn sich die Tatsachen überhaupt nicht mehr kaschieren lassen und jeder erdenliche Spinversuch gescheitert ist. Dann allerdings umso heftiger......

Financial Markets Anticipate Recessions Before They are Obvious
Two weeks ago, for the first time since the 2001-2002 downturn, our measures again signaled an oncoming U.S. recession. This signal is based on four general conditions. They are all well-known to be related to economic weakness (not the result of spurious data-mining), but they do not have great usefulness individually. They become powerful when they are unanimous – these conditions have always occurred together during or just prior to recessions, and they have only occurred together during or just prior to recessions. Apart from the survey measures in the fourth condition (the ISM Purchasing Managers Index and U.S. employment), the most reliable evidence for an oncoming recession is based on financial market indicators. It is the forward-looking aspect of market action that produces a timely risk signal. These measures are:

1: Widening credit spreads: An increase over the past 6 months in either the spread between commercial paper and 3-month Treasury yields, or between the Dow Corporate Bond Index yield and 10-year Treasury yields.

2: Moderate or flat yield curve: 10-year Treasury yield no more than 2.5% above 3-month Treasury yields (this doesn't create a strong risk of recession in and of itself).

3: Falling stock prices: S&P 500 below its level of 6 months earlier. Again, this is not terribly unusual by itself, which is why people say that market declines have called 11 of the past 6 recessions, but falling stock prices are very important as part of the broader syndrome.

4: Moderating ISM and employment growth: PMI in the low 50's or worse (below 54), coupled with either total nonfarm employment growth below 1.3% over the preceding year (this is a figure that Marty Zweig noted in a Barron's piece years ago), or an unemployment rate up 0.4% or more from its 12-month low.

For ease of reference, I've reproduced the chart I presented two weeks ago. The recession signals based on the foregoing criteria are depicted in blue in the chart below. Actual recessions are depicted in red.

Recession Talk Is Making Headlines

Finally the "recession" talk is making headlines. The only think that wonders me is that there is still a discussion that the US will face a recession.... If the US would use a more "realistic" formula ( see this example ) i assume that the recession is already here.... The clearest sign might be that Starbucks reportet the first decline ever in customer visits. :-) . Here is more Coffee Talk via Cutting The Bull

Schön das es die kommende Rezession jetzt auch die Titelseiten schafft. Merkwürdig nur das immer noch diskutiert wird ob die Rezession kommt..... Wenn Die USA eine nicht ganz so kreative Berechnungsformel ( siehe dieses Beispiel ) behaupte ich das die USA schon mitten in der Rezession stecken. Ein sicheres Anzeichen für die aktuellen Probleme liefert Starbucks die zum ersten Mal in der Geschichte einen Kundenrückgang berichten müssen. :-) Hier gibt es mehr zum Thema Coffee Talk von Cutting The Bull

IN 1929, days after the stockmarket crash, the Harvard Economic Society reassured its subscribers: “A severe depression is outside the range of probability”. In a survey in March 2001, 95% of American economists said there would not be a recession, even though one had already started. Today, most economists do not forecast a recession in America, but the profession's pitiful forecasting record offers little comfort

Recession in America / America's vulnerable economy

The Consumer Crunch

Expecting A Recession / Hussman

This is only a smal snippet from Hussman´s latest work Expecting A Recession . Havn´t heard the word "contained" for a long long time.....

Dieses ist nur ein kleiner Ausschnitt von Hussman´s letzten Werk Expecting A Recession . Nebenbei bemerkt habe ich das wort "contained" schon lange nicht mehr gehört.......

Industry groups: rotating disappointments
It's interesting that investors have not yet put the rotating disappointments among various industry groups into a “gestalt.” Rather, investors seem to be looking at various industries as if their problems are each somehow unique and unrelated. Investors recognized early that the housing sector is profoundly vulnerable. More recently, they have recognized that financials face growing loan loss risk. With Caterpillar's disappointing guidance, they suddenly realized that cyclicals and machinery face significant challenges. With Exxon's refining difficulties, they realize that profit growth in the oil sector is unlikely to produce major upside surprises. And last week, technology stocks were clipped when Cisco produced strong earnings but didn't raise guidance. Yet somehow, investors haven't put all of these together to see the larger picture, which is that the market has lost leadership from every important group. This isn't a stock-selection or an industry-selection issue. It is a pervasive indication of oncoming economic risk.

With regard to financials in particular, investors continue to look for a bottom. Aside from periodic short squeezes and spectacular but short-lived rebounds, I don't think it is coming anytime soon. The recent concern about higher loan losses is no surprise (see The Problem with Financials), and this is likely to continue. This is not simply a problem that will go away if various financial companies “come clean” with what their CDOs and so forth are worth. The real problem is that the companies don't know what they're worth because the foreclosures that will determine their value haven't happened yet. The defaults are just starting. The heaviest round of mortgage resets only started in October, so it will probably be months before we observe ma