Thursday, November 15, 2007

Recession Talk Is Making Headlines

Finally the "recession" talk is making headlines. The only think that wonders me is that there is still a discussion that the US will face a recession.... If the US would use a more "realistic" formula ( see this example ) i assume that the recession is already here.... The clearest sign might be that Starbucks reportet the first decline ever in customer visits. :-) . Here is more Coffee Talk via Cutting The Bull

Schön das es die kommende Rezession jetzt auch die Titelseiten schafft. Merkwürdig nur das immer noch diskutiert wird ob die Rezession kommt..... Wenn Die USA eine nicht ganz so kreative Berechnungsformel ( siehe dieses Beispiel ) behaupte ich das die USA schon mitten in der Rezession stecken. Ein sicheres Anzeichen für die aktuellen Probleme liefert Starbucks die zum ersten Mal in der Geschichte einen Kundenrückgang berichten müssen. :-) Hier gibt es mehr zum Thema Coffee Talk von Cutting The Bull

IN 1929, days after the stockmarket crash, the Harvard Economic Society reassured its subscribers: “A severe depression is outside the range of probability”. In a survey in March 2001, 95% of American economists said there would not be a recession, even though one had already started. Today, most economists do not forecast a recession in America, but the profession's pitiful forecasting record offers little comfort

Recession in America / America's vulnerable economy

The Consumer Crunch

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11 Comments:

Blogger jmf said...


Citigroup, Merrill Push Financial Borrowing Costs to Records


Bonds of banks, brokerages and insurance companies yield 1.49 percentage points more than U.S. Treasuries, matching a record high set in October 2002, according to indexes compiled by New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co. The average industrial company bond trades at a yield premium of 1.34 percentage points.

Commerzbank AG, Germany's second-largest bank, sold 750 million euros ($1.1 billion) of 10-year bonds that yielded 1.78 percentage points more than similar maturity government debt. That's triple what the Frankfurt-based lender paid last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

11:44 PM  
Blogger jmf said...


Alltel Banks Cut Loan Sale Size a Second Time, Investors Say



Banks for TPG Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reduced the size of the loan they are selling for the purchase of Alltel Corp. to $3.2 billion, the second cut in as many days, according to investors briefed on the decision.

Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Inc. and RBS Greenwich Capital initially planned to sell $6 billion of the $14.4 billion of loans used to finance the purchase of the Little Rock, Arkansas- based mobile-telephone provider. They cut that to $4.8 billion yesterday and reduced the size again today after failing to find demand, according to the investors who declined to be named because the terms aren't set.

The banks were forced yesterday to deepen the discount on the loan to as low as 96 cents on the dollar from 97.5 cents. The struggle by Alltel's banks to offload the debt demonstrates a renewed reluctance among investors to buy leveraged loans. After appetite returned last month, concerns about losses from subprime mortgages sapped demand.

12:14 AM  
Blogger jmf said...


Jim Rogers Rant


on Bernanke, the $ etc

Very "entertaining"

2:43 AM  
Blogger Edgar said...

Kill Goldman Sachs! They are the devil! They don't have any money and yet the rule US banking policy. It is sick.

6:48 AM  
Blogger jmf said...


FedEx Cuts Profit Outlook on Fuel, Slowing Freight


Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- FedEx Corp., the second-largest U.S. parcel shipper, cut its profit forecast for this quarter and the full year because of rising fuel costs and weak demand for freight shipments. The shares fell as much as 4.6 percent.

Earnings will be $1.45 to $1.55 a share in the second fiscal quarter ending Nov. 30, down from $1.60 to $1.75 earlier, FedEx said in a statement today. The full-year forecast was trimmed to a range of $6.40 to $6.70, down from $6.70 to $7.10. FedEx also pared its fiscal 2008 forecast in September.

FedEx is being pinched by a drop in freight demand from declines in U.S. homebuilding and industrial production and fuel prices that are rising faster than the company's surcharges to cover that expense.

``Our fuel costs have increased more than 8 percent, or $85 million,'' since September, Chief Financial Officer Alan Graf said in the statement.

FedEx is responding by cutting expenses and reviewing planned spending, the Memphis, Tennessee-based company said in a statement. Spokesman Jess Bunn declined to provide specifics.

FedEx declined $4.68, or 4.6 percent, to $96.69 at 9:31 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

6:59 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Edgar,

it really seems that they rule the world.

Way too many former GS managers are now in position in central banks, politics etc.

I can´t wait for them to come clean with their write downs

There is no way they are done

7:04 AM  
Blogger Edgar said...

Good moring jmf,

In this morning's news, GS is worried about the common good:

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- The mortgage wipeout could result in a $2 trillion cutback in lending and have dramatic implications for the U.S. economy, according to Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs.

Good! That's exactly what should happen when they mis-invest $2 trillion in pig man games and crappy construction. I hope they all go belly up.

7:15 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In marketing circles, for trend spotters, there is a rule of thumb: Once it hits magazine covers, you have missed the boat and it is old news.

I have maintained that this recessionstated last May/June.

Barley

7:23 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin again,

i wanted to point out that Jan Hatzius ..... a German :-) was spot on from the beginning.

He was one of the very view voices that already in the 2005 saw this thing comming.

But as you know at that time only the bloggers noticed him.....

7:25 AM  
Blogger Edgar said...

Hi again jmf,

Yes, late 2004, 2005 it became obvious to all except those getting rich from the scam. I harbor a lot of anger towards the criminals who have hijacked my country. We should have listened to Jimmy Carter, instead we have become this imperialistic banana republic. We had some good points up until Bush II took the throne.

8:00 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin,

"I have maintained that this recessionstated last May/June."

Thanks to all the revisions we will find out in 2010.... :-)

10:46 PM  

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