Sunday, June 22, 2008

Chieming Calling....

I´ll be on vacation in Chieming. I´ll be back blogging at the beginning of July.

Ich verabschiedede mich bis Anfang Juli in Richtung des wunderschönen Chieming.


Friday, June 20, 2008

I Want My Buyback Back.....Daimler Is Doubling Down Again

Wow! This adds up to a buyback of € 12 billion within 24 month..... Unfortunately my February post was spot on.... It is amazing that they still call this optimization of their capital structure. Based on todays share price their latest effort to" increase the return to shareholders" amounted in a loss of roughly € 2 billion or 30 % in just 12 month..... And all this in the face of a recession, high fuel prices hurting especially Mercedes, EADS in freefall, their truckbusiness hitting a wall, their financing unit under pressure ( margins, higher risk provision for lease vehicles , rising delinquencies etc....), their 20% Chrysler investment close to insolvency ( don´t know exactly if they are on the hook for more...UPDATE: Chrysler Taps $2 Billion Line of Credit from Daimler ), etc....... On the other hand one has to ask why the sharesholders are voting in favour for this kind of nonsense.... They deserve to pay the price. The free cashflow in Q1 was just over € 1 billion.... If this run rate continues i think that even the slow moving rating agencies will take a look at their "A" rating with a positive outlook. But with their models at work they might reward Daimler with an upgrade (as their outlook is sugesting ).....

Glückwunsch! Insgesamt summiert sich das Aktienrückkaufprogramm auf satte 12 Mrd € binnen 24 Monaten.... Damit bestätigt das was ich im Februar befürchtet habe.... Es grenzt schon an eine gewisse Arroganz den erneuten Rückkauf über 6 Mrd € immer noch als Optimierung der Kapitalstruktur zu vermarkten. Und das nachdem das letzte Rückkaufprogramm binnen 12 Monaten fast 2 Mrd € ( entspricht 30 % ) versenkt hat. Soviel Chuzpe verdient schon fast wieder Respekt...... Besonders wenn man bedenkt das die nächste Zeit besonders für Daimler alles andere als rosig aussehen wird. Eine weltweite Rezession oder zumindest ein deutlich langsameres Wachstum, hohe Spritpreise die nicht gerade die Hersteller großer Wagen bevorzugen, CO2 Diskussion, die wichtige Finanzbeteiligung EADS im freien Fall, Die 20% Beteiligung von Chrysler faktisch insolvent ( bin mir nicht sicher ob hier noch Nachforderungen drohen UPDATE: Chrysler Taps $2 Billion Line of Credit from Daimler ), das Nutzfahrzeuggeschäft bricht gerade massiv ein, die Finanzsparte als Hauptgewinntreiber kommt stark unter Druck ( Margen, Ausfälle, fallende Rückkaufswerte ), usw...... Auf der anderen Seite muß man sich schon Fragen was die Aktionäre geraucht haben um solch wahnwitzige Programme zu befürworten. Den Preis für diese Kurzsichtigkeit werden Sie wohl noch teuer bezahlen müssen...... Der free Cashflow von Daimler in Q1 betrug ca 1 Mrd €........Sollte dieses Missverhältnis noch länger anhalten dürften selbst die nicht immer cleveren Ratingageturen Ihr "A" Rating mit positiven Ausblick eher früher als später überdenken. Obwohl man bei deren Bewertungsmodellen nie genau weiß ob nicht sogar ein nicht wie Ausblick inmpliziert Daimler mit einem Upgrade belohnt wird.....

Daimler For the further optimization of Daimler’s capital structure, the Board of Management of the company decided to carry out a new share buyback program. The Supervisory Board of Daimler AG has approved this decision. In exercise of the authorization granted by the Annual Meeting of April 9, 2008, the decision of the Board of Management allows for the buyback of 10% or approximately 96.4 million of the outstanding shares for a maximum amount of EUR6 billion. In order to optimize the buyback, shares may also be acquired with the use of derivatives.

Daimler’s capital structure is to be further optimized with the goal of reducing the use of equity capital, which is more expensive than debt capital. This will avoid investment decisions being limited by excessively high capital costs. ....

The shares acquired will later be cancelled without any reduction in Daimler’s share capital. It will also be possible to use some of the shares to serve stock option plans.

The company started its first share buyback program at the end of August 2007. By March 28, 2008, 99.8 million shares had been bought back for EUR6.2 billion.

Can anyone see the impact of almost € 6 billion........`

Kann in dem Chart irgendeiner die verpulverten € 6 Mrd ausfindig machen...... ?

Share Buyback based on the Authorization of the 2007 Annual Meeting
No. of Shares Acquired
Average Price (EUR)
Purchased Volume (EUR)
March, 2008
February 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007

I have to repeat myself and point to this brilliant quote from Stuart Rose via the great piece from Jeff Matthews How to Buy Back Stock: Not “Just Because We Can” .

Auch auf die Gefahr das ich mich wiederhole verweise ich auf dieses Zitat von Stuart Rose aus dem extrem lesenswerten Post von Jeff Matthews hat zu diesem How to Buy Back Stock: Not “Just Because We Can” .

"At that point in time, we still have, Doug, correct me if I'm wrong -- about 200,000 shares outstanding on the old buyback. Again, we -- like we buy our stock like we do everything else, if there's an opportunistic place to buy it. We don't just buy it arbitrarily because we can, we buy it to support what we consider basically ridiculously low levels."


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Wednesday, June 18, 2008

"33 Great Ways To Save Money" .... UK Yellow Press On CPI / Credit Crunch

No Kidding! The piece from the SUN ( yellow press ) in the UK is no satire ! Things must be really ugly ....... I´m not sure if this is qualifying for a contrary indicator / cover story indicator ( like this one ) regarding the inflation debate but when you read the follwoing advice in relation with mayonnaise i assume we are nearer the CPI top than most peolple think.... On the other hand i´m very very confident that the same is not true for the credit crunch in the UK !

Kein Witz! Diese Geschichte in der SUN ( britische Gegenstück zur Bildzeitung ) ist in keiner Weise satirisch oder ironisch gemeint. Scheint momentan nicht nur wegen der verpaßten EM ziemlich ungemütlich zu sein.... :-) Ich bin mir nicht sicher ob diese Berichterstattung bereits ausreicht um als Kontraindikator ( siehe dieses Beispiel herzuhalten. Bei Betrachtung des nachfolgenden Vorschlages könnte man alledrings zu dem Schluß kommen das die Konsumentenpreisinflation demnächst Ihren Höhepunkt gesehen hat...... Für den gerade erst angefangegen Credit Crunch in UK gilt das allerdings auf keinen Fall. Hier hat der Spaß sicher gerade erst begonnen......

21. Mayonnaise is a fine hair conditioner, adding shine.

Give hairdressers the brush off if you want blonde highlights — just brush lemon juice into your barnet and let it dry in the sun.

I think it´s difficult for the BOE & other central banks to claim that are still in control over "inflation expectations" ( see Real Cost of Living Index (RCLI) is rising at 9.5 per cent. via Barry Ritholtz ) ........Disclosure : I´m with Mish´s definition on Inflation ( see Inflation: What the heck is it? )

Der ständige Hinweis das die Notenbänker immer noch Kontrolle über die Inflationserwartungen haben klingt allerding von Tat zu tag lächerlicher ( siehe auch Real Cost of Living Index (RCLI) is rising at 9.5 per cent. via Barry Ritholtz ) ..... Hinweis : Bekanntermaßen sehe ich die Definition von Inflation wie Mish ( siehe Inflation: What the heck is it? )

The SUN THE credit crunch is biting but you can ease the squeeze if you take a few simple steps.

Here Sun cheapskate TIM SPANTON shares his expertise, with 33 great ways to save money now that prices are rising at 3.3 per cent, the highest rate for more than ten years.

But be warned – there are some tips here even miserly Ebenezer Scrooge might be ashamed of taking up.

Remember, if you’re feeling the pinch, laughter is the best medicine – and it’s FREE.

1. Use banana skins to clean your shoes. The inside of the skins contains potassium, a key ingredient in commercial polishes.

Finish off with a soft cloth. Oils in the banana will even enrich the leather in your shoes and help them last longer.

2. Collect old slivers of soap and squeeze them together to make a new bar.

3. Never buy the first round in a pub. If you go drinking once a week and always get to the bar first you will end up buying dozens more rounds more a year than a person who always buys the fourth round.

This is because drinking sessions often end after an odd number of rounds. .....

8. Buy postage stamps in bulk, before the prices go up, which we all know they will. .....

14. Mix milk with equal amounts of water to go on your breakfast cereal. You will soon get used to it. The slight difference in taste is very small and soon won’t be detected at all.

15. Watch telly in bed in the dark. You’ll save on heating and lighting costs and if there’s a sexy show on, you might even get a bonus cuddle from your partner.

18. Get off a stop early if you commute by bus or Tube to save cash. ....

24. Buy Christmas presents in the sales after the holidays and keep for a year.

27. Shower instead of bathing. To save even more, shower with a friend.

>If you don´t believe me that this is not an ironic piece from the SUNn click the link and read the entire link... There are lots of suggestions that do make sense and are less "exotic".

> Wer mir nicht glaubt das dieser "Ratgeber" ernst gemeint ist sollte zur Kontrolle den kompletten Link lesen .... Dort finden sich in der Tat etliche Hinweise die hilfreich und weniger "skuril" sind.

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Tuesday, June 17, 2008

One City Suffers In Silence.....

As i´ve said over and over again..."The Daily Show Rocks!"

Denke das wir hier ebenfalls eine solch geartete Sendung vertragen könnten. Die Politiker liefern momentan mehr als genug Monition um ein stundenlanges Programm zu füllen......

Larry Wilmore travels to Beverly Hills to show how the city of glamour and excess has been hard-hit by the recession.

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Sunday, June 15, 2008

Investors Hit $10bn Loss In US Financials

Never catch a falling knife.......It remains to be seen if the Sovereign Wealth Funds won´t double down..... :-) Just watch todays news on Barclays....... It seems like they still havn´t lost enough..... At least they bought into a strong currency..... ;-)

Greife nie in ein fallendes Messer..... Bin wirklich gespannt ob sich die staatlich kontrollierten Fonds wirklich ernsthaft zurückhalten. Das Beispiel Barclays zeigt momentan noch ein anderes Bild. Mann könnte auch sarkastisch sagen das hier der "Anfängerfehler" gemacht wird und die Positionen "verbilligt" werden..... :-). Die Verluste sind anscheinend noch nicht schmerzhaft genug..... Immerhin haben Sie sich dank der "gelungenen" Investment in eine "starke" Währung eingekauft ...... ;-) Investors hit $10bn loss in US financials FT
Investors who backed US financial companies’ drive to raise much-needed capital are sitting on nearly $10bn in paper losses amid a continued slump in the sector’s shares, a Financial Times analysis shows.

The negative returns suffered by investors are likely to make it more difficult and expensive for US financial groups to tap equity markets if, as expected, the credit crunch forces them to raise more capital.

“Raising funds from equity investors is becoming increasingly complicated because the performance of financial stocks during and after the spate of fund-raisings has been so abysmal,” said a Wall Street banker who advises institutions.

The setbacks suffered by equity investors come as sovereign wealth funds – a rich source of capital at the beginning of the crisis – have moved to the sidelines after seeing the value of investments fall in companies such as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley.

Investors who bought the $65bn-plus in common and convertible shares issued by large US financial institutions since last October have seen their total investments fall by more than $9.7bn – a negative return of about 15 per cent – according to an FT analysis of Dealogic data.

> I doubt that all of the SWF were as smart as the following....

> Glaube kaum das alle SWF ähnlich weitsichtig wie der nachfolgende agiert haben.....

FT Abu Dhabi’s Adia, meanwhile, had structured its November investment in Citi in a way that gave it the right to go back and strike better terms on its deal, heightening its downside protection to match the terms GIC and Kia struck with Citi.

> Lets hope for them that this kind of term is still in place during the next few capital raising attempts from Citi.... :-)

> Bleibt zu hoffen das diese Kalusel auch noch nach der 3. und 4. Runde von Kapitalerhöhungen bei Citi in Kraft ist...... :-)

Those who took part in the $1.2bn recapitalisation of the bond insurer Ambac last March are nursing paper losses of more than 70 per cent. And fund managers who backed a $1.2bn capital raising by fellow monoline insurer MBIA have seen their investment shrink by 60 per cent.

Shareholders in Citigroup who thought that the sharp fall in the stock made last month’s $4bn share issuance a buying opportunity face a 24 per cent loss.

Of the 20-plus fund raisings by US banks and insurers since the onset of the crisis, only two – by the student loan provider Sallie Mae and the regional lender Sovereign Bancorp – show a small positive return

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Thursday, June 12, 2008

I Want My Buyback Back....Lehman Edition

As most of the readers know i´m not a fan of stock buybacks ( see label ). To me this is just a desperate way to manage the stock price in the short term. Often enough to unload options or ta mask the dilution of all the option given to employees ( see end of the post ) ... I really urge you to read the entire piece from Floyd Norris. There is much more about the Lehman debacle....

Wie die meisten Leser bereits wissen bin ich überhaupt kein Fan von Aktienrückkäufen. Meiner Meinung nach ist das in erster Linie ein Werkzeg um kurz und maximal mittelfristig den Aktienkurs zu pushen. Fast immer damit vom Management währenddessen Aktienoptionen versilbert werden können oder die Verwässerung durch die mehr als großzügige Vergabe von Aktienoptionen kaschiert werden kann ( siehe letzten Absatz im Posting ) ...... Unter dem Label könnt Ihr einige weiter prominente Beispiele finden wie sinnlos und zum Teil existensgefährendend etliche dieser angeblich dem "Shareholdervalue" dienenden Käufe gewirkt haben...... Ich empfehle zudem dringend den komplette Artikel von Floyd Norris zu lesen. Dort sind etliche zusätzliche Details zum Desaster von Lehman zu lesen.....

Its policy on share buybacks was to avoid the dilution caused by grants of restricted shares and options issued to employees, and that meant it bought back about as any shares as it issued.

It succeeded. The number of shares outstanding at the end of the first uarter was virtually the same as it was at the end of the 2004 fiscal year, after adjusting for a stock split.

In the 13 quarters from the end of that year through this year’s first quarter — that is, before the new $2.8 billion loss — Lehman reported net income of $11.9 billion, and spent $11.8 billion on share repurchases.

It paid an average price of $62.19 for shares that dropped under $23 after the shake-up was announced.

Adding shareholder value at its best.......Needless to say that on almost every conference call i heard "Wall Street Finest" pressed management on more buybacks...... And this in sectors like homebuilders during 2007, retailers, banks, etc......

Ein besonders gelungener Fall dem Aktionär gutes zu tun....... Überflüssig zu erwähnen das während fast aller Anaylstenkonferenzen denen ich in den letzten Jahren beigewohnt habe jedesmal eine Anhebung des Aktienrückkaufes "angemahnt" wurde..... Und das auch noch im Jahr 2007 in Branchen wie den Homebuilders, Banken, Einzelhandel usw......

Compare this with this brilliant quote from Stuart Rose via the great piece from Jeff Matthews How to Buy Back Stock: Not “Just Because We Can” .

Vergleicht das mit diesem Zitat von Stuart Rose aus dem extrem lesenswerten Post von Jeff Matthews hat zu diesem How to Buy Back Stock: Not “Just Because We Can” .

"At that point in time, we still have, Doug, correct me if I'm wrong -- about 200,000 shares outstanding on the old buyback. Again, we -- like we buy our stock like we do everything else, if there's an opportunistic place to buy it. We don't just buy it arbitrarily because we can, we buy it to support what we consider basically ridiculously low levels."

Thanks Stuart/Jeff

This quote comes via Naked Capitalism

Back in the early 1990s, when Sallie Krawchek was an analyst at Sanford Bernstein covering Wall Street, she observed that it was better to be an employee of an investment bank than a shareholder. That if anything has become more true over time.


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Crude politics: Oil policy changes and protests

WOW! The FT has a fantastic interactive map. I think it is a must see! Especially when i´m right and the only positiv catalyst that could prevent the market ( temporarely ) from falling further will be a falling or at least stable oil price......

Genial! Die FT hat sich selbst übertroffen. Sollte man meiner Meinung nach dringend gesehen haben ! Das gilt umso mehr wenn mann wie ich der Meinung ist das der Ölpreis der einzig verbliebene kurzfristige positive Katalysator für die Weltbörsen ist. Nebenbei bemerkt ein ziemlich verzweifeltes und schwaches Argument das von den Bullen ins Feld geführt wird..... Kurzfristig aber immer für eine kleine Bärenrally gut.....

Surging oil prices are forcing governments to reconsider their approach to subsidies and taxation, which may cause more prices rises to be passed on to the consumer. Will higher prices at the pump make a difference to Asia and the Middle East’s relentless increase in fuel demand, eventually tempering oil prices and proving those predicting $200 oil wrong?

Our interactive graphic shows selected protest actions and government policy changes.

interactive map

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Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Bernanke vs Greenspan

Amazing that everybody wants to believe that Ben "Core" Bernanke has become an inflation hawk over night..... The only reason this guy is talking tough is that the $ is crashing further and the ECB is forcing him to act. But so far the Fed din´t act and i refuse to believe it until i see it confirmed from at least three sources.... :-) Especially in the face of the ongoing recession....... Disclosure : I´m with Mish´s definition on Inflation ( see Inflation: What the heck is it? ) . It seems i´m not the only one who is sceptical... Make sure you read the rant from Tim / The Mess That Greenspan Made Fisher: Silly interest rate talk

Überraschend das irgendeiner zumindest auf dieser Welt die Aussagen von Ben "Core" Bernanke in Sachen Inflationsbekämpfung für bare Münze nimmt..... Der einzige Grund warum praktisch über Nacht der Falke in Ihm erwacht zu sein scheint ist wohl der EZB zu verdanken die die Fed zum Handeln zwingen wird um einen totalen Kollaps des $ zu verhindern. Ich glaube aus Erfahrung keinerlei Rethorik die aus den Mündern von US Notenbänkern kommt und bin gespannt ob den hohlen Phrasen ausnahmsweise auch mal Taten folgen werden. Glaube das erst wenn ich das von mindestens drei unabhängigen Quellen bestätigt bekomme..... :-) Besonders dann nicht wenn die Erhöhungen im Angesicht einer üblen Rezession erfolgen. Hinweis : Bekanntermaßen sehe ich die Definition von Inflation wie Mish ( siehe Inflation: What the heck is it? ) . Sieht ganz so aus als wenn nicht nur ich der einzige ist der eine gewisse Skepsis an den Tag legt..... Empfehle hier den Rundumschlag von Tim / The Mess That Greenspan Made Fisher: Silly interest rate talk

via Calculated Risk Tim Duy: Fed Between a Rock and ...

Bottom Line: The Fed has no one to blame for their predicament but themselves. Bernanke & Co. cut rates too deeply, fighting a battle against deflation that never was. Now they are backed into a corner; either raise rates and risk upsetting a very fragile economy, or stay the path and risk the inflationary consequences.


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Monday, June 09, 2008

F.H.A. Faces $4.6 Billion in Losses

"Unexpected losses".......LOL!

"President Bush and leading Democrats in Congress are counting on the F.H.A., which is overseen by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, to help istressed borrowers refinance into stable, government-backed loans."
Got gold.....?

Yves from Naked Capitalsim has much more on this topic FHA Repudiates Housing Rescue Bill including this desperate comment to fend off the latest rescue packages from the FHA chief Brian Montgomery ( also hat tip to Housing Wire) .

Yves von Naked Capitalsim hat mehr deprimierende Details zu diesem verzweifelten Versuch der Politik das Unvermeindliche zu verhindern FHA Repudiates Housing Rescue Bill . Hier ein an Deutlichkeit nicht zu überbietender Hilfeschrei von FHA Boss Brian Montgomery ( Dank auch an Housing Wire) das die von der Politik geplanten Rettungsaktionen für den US Immobilienmarkt unweigerlich in ein Desaster führen werden ..... Unnötig zu erwähnen das letztendlich der Steuerzahler für diesen erneuten Irrsinn geradezustehen hat...... Unnötig ebenfalls zu betonen das sich die Politiker gerade in Wahlkampfzeiten am Ende sicher durchsetzen werden....

"Some of the proposed Congressional actions could actually weaken FHA and endanger the housing market by turning FHA into a less stable, less solvent, more bureaucratic entity.

There are some who want FHA to pick up all the potentially delinquent 2 million subprime loans.This is a worrisome idea.

FHA is designed to help stabilize the economy, operating within manageable, low-risk loans.It is not designed to become the federal lender of last resort, a mega-agency to subsidize bad loans."

He should have been so vocal a litlle bit earlier ( enjoy the rant from Mish )

Hier noch ein netter Rumumschlag von Mish

F.H.A. Faces $4.6 Billion in Losses NYT
WASHINGTON — The Federal Housing Administration expects to lose $4.6 billion because of unexpectedly high default rates on home loans, officials said Monday.

Brian D. Montgomery, the F.H.A. commissioner, attributed the unanticipated losses primarily to the agency’s seller-financed down payment mortgage program, which has suffered from high delinquency and foreclosure rates in recent years.

Housing officials said the agency was also hurt by poor performance in its traditional mortgage portfolio. Deteriorating economic conditions led some of its core clients — first-time buyers, minorities and lower-income owners — to default, they said.

The projected loss is the highest in the home loan program since 2004, and officials said the F.H.A. had to withdraw $4.6 billion from its $21 billion capital reserve fund in May to cover the costs. They said the agency, which is self-sustaining, would not need appropriations from Congress to remain solvent.

But Mr. Montgomery warned that the F.H.A. would have to renew its efforts to end the seller-financed down payment program, which accounted for 35 percent of its loans in 2007.

He said the mortgages had foreclosure rates three times those of traditional loans and would push the F.H.A. to the brink of insolvency.

“Let me repeat: F.H.A. is solvent,” Mr. Montgomery said on Monday in a speech at the National Press Club. “However, no insurance company can sustain that amount of additional costs year after year and still survive. Unless we take action to mitigate these losses, F.H.A. will soon either have to shut down or rely on appropriations to operate.”

F.H.A.’s projected loss, more than four times the shortfall attributed to the home program last year, raised concerns about the agency’s ability to lead the national effort to rescue homeowners facing foreclosure.

President Bush and leading Democrats in Congress are counting on the F.H.A., which is overseen by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, to help distressed borrowers refinance into stable, government-backed loans.

Officials say the agency will help 500,000 people refinance by the end of the year, but a vast majority of those have made their payments on time.

Howard Glaser, a mortgage industry consultant who served as HUD general counsel in the Clinton administration, sees the anticipated loss as a concern. “Congress is relying on F.H.A. to help stabilize the mortgage market, but it’s not clear that F.H.A. is as strong as it could be,” he said.

Mr. Montgomery said the agency planned to reopen the comment period on a proposed rule to the Federal Register that would ban the program. But the F.H.A. has tried to eliminate seller-financed down payment loans for years, and it remains unclear whether it will be successful now.

Under the program, a home seller arranges to cover the buyer’s down payment, using financial help from a nonprofit company, but typically adds that sum or more to the price of the house. The deal has been particularly attractive to financially struggling buyers and to owners in depressed markets, according to Congressional officials.

Critics say the practice puts overpriced houses in the hands of poor and minority homeowners who ultimately cannot cover the mortgage. In recent years, the Government Accountability Office and the Internal Revenue Service have both raised concerns about the program.

But with the subprime market collapsed and mortgage companies tightening lending criteria, seller down payment loans have become increasingly appealing both to sellers in slumping housing markets and to lower-income homebuyers unable to get conventional mortgages.

The program, which accounted for less than 2 percent of F.H.A.-insured loans in 2000, now accounts for more than a third of the agency’s portfolio. Housing officials said that 60 percent of F.H.A.’s anticipated loss was directly attributable to the seller-financed down payment program.

Supporters of the loans, who include some powerful members of Congress, counter that the program provides much-needed assistance to low-income and minority families who would otherwise be unable to buy homes.

Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, remains opposed to any F.H.A. rule that would eliminate the program, a spokesman said on Monday. Mr. Frank has said he would like to reform the program without killing it.

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Thursday, June 05, 2008

About 1 in 11 Mortgageholders Face Loan Problems

"Contained" :-) ...... No wonder the market was up yesterday......

Kein Wunder das der Markt gestern so freundlich war....... Jeder der denkt das die Krise im US Finanzsektor überstanden ist sollte sich die nachfolgende Grafik sehr genau ansehen. Finanztitel sollte man nach wie vor nicht mal mit der Kneifzange anfassen.

About 1 in 11 Mortgageholders Face Loan Problems NYT


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