Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Number / Farce Of The Day..... GDP Price Index / GDP Deflator

I think this time they have gone too far .... Reminds me somehow of "Fool´s Day".....

Ich denke diesemal sind Sie wirklich zu weit gegangen.... Das ganze erinnert mich irgendwie an den 1. April.......

U.S. economy grows at 3.9% pace in third quarter
Despite rising worries about commodity prices, the GDP price index, the broadest measure of price changes in the economy, rose just 0.8% annualized, matching a nine-year low. Inflation hasn't been lower since John F. Kennedy's administration."

Here is the nice rant (including a chart) from Barry Ritholtz on this topic I Call "Shenanigans" on GDP! & Hellasious from Sudden Debt is also "upset" in Hooray, Inflation Lowest Since 1963!! . Barry Ritholtz has also found this headline Inflation was low because oil prices surged. In GDP math, sometimes one plus one equals zero explaining how the "math" is working....

Und hier die ebenfalls deftige Meinung inklusive Chart von Barry Ritholtz zu diesem Thema I Call "Shenanigans" on GDP!. Hellasious von Sudden Debt feiert ebenfalls in Hooray, Inflation Lowest Since 1963!! kräftig mit. Diese Schlagzeile Inflation was low because oil prices surged. In GDP math, sometimes one plus one equals zero spricht für sich......

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Anonymous traderboy said...

Seems pretty surprising to me.

However, if you go by the numbers, then it seems to me that stocks are a buy...I am on the verge of flipping my long-term short into a long position for the blow-off top.

Good growth for 2 quarters in a row, low inflation, some of the strongest global growth we've ever seen, a falling currency which will help exporters, a stock market which is only up 18% over the last 18 months whilst global stock markets have rocketed upwards, and a central bank which looks like it's going to extend its rate-cutting cycle today.

Obvious sign to be long stocks?? I want so badly to stay bearish, but the system seems set to only benefit those taking on risk.

8:23 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Traderboy,

i´m bullish.....

But only on gold & the gold miners

With all the news i´m reading day in and day out i couldn´sleep at night if i were long any broader index ( I have tried....).

8:39 AM  
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