Monday, December 21, 2009

Goldman Christmas Cartoon..... Lloyd Blankfein Meets Mary And Joseph

I´ll be taking a few days off over the holidays & the new year and wish every reader & their families a merry christmas and a healthy new year.....

The cartoon is in reference to the already ledgendary quote from the Goldman CEO ( see I'm doing 'God's work'. Meet Mr Goldman Sachs )

Ich werde mir über die Feiertage mal eine Auszeit gönnen und wünsche allen Lesern & deren Familien ein besinnliches Weihnachtsfest und ein gesundes neues Jahr.....

Der nachfolgende Cartoon spielt natürlich auf das bereits jetzt legendäre Zitat vom Goldman CEO an ( siehe I'm doing 'God's work'. Meet Mr Goldman Sachs )

Christmas cards 2009 by Kipper Williams H/T Naked Capitalism


Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Sovereign Misery Index

One important reason why i like gold long term regardless of the US$ direction ( especially when you take a look at the "off balance sheet chart" )........

Einer der Hauptgründe die leider noch auf lange Zeit unabhängig von der Entwicklung des US$ für Gold sprechen ( gilt erst Recht wenn man sich den "Off Balance Sheet Chart" und die damit verbundene Aussage genauer ansieht ) .....

Anothery misery index - Moody's

FT Alphaville

Moody’s has compiled a 1970s-style ‘Misery’ index. But instead of showing inflation and unemployment rates, it shows the fiscal deficit and the unemployment rate.
Theme 1 Aaa countries will probably not have the luxury of waiting for the recovery to be secured before announcing credible fiscal consolidation plans.

Theme 4 Most governments cannot afford another financial crisis. Attempting to ring-fence balance sheets from contingent liabilities will keep policy makers busy.

Theme 5 Very large public debt and low economic vitality will prompt unprecedented questions about how governments can discharge their obligations without changing the rules of the game.

One way of looking at this is to realize that governments are more willing to default on social obligations – such as changing the retirement age – than on financial obligations

Theme 10 Debt hang-hover will test social and political cohesiveness.

In several countries – including some highly advanced ones like Iceland or Ireland, but also Latvia or Hungary, as well as in some much poorer countries like Jamaica – a great sacrifice is required from the respective populations. Cohesive and/or very enduring societies like the Baltic countries, Iceland or Ireland have accepted sacrifices (salary cuts, public spending cuts, etc.) that would have seemed unimaginable a few years ago and continue to seem hardly replicable in comparable societies.
Moodys Sovereign

At least some "Enron-esque characteristics" are difficult to deny......

Böswillig könnte bzw. müßte man sagen das "Enron-esque characteristics" nicht zu leugnen sind....

larger/vergrößerte Version

Credit's Golden Age? WSJ


We all can thank the regulators, accounting stunt experts, central banksters & the politicans that after trillions of worldwide banking bailouts the banks are now "well capitalized"( proven by yesterdays news like $38 Billion Tax Break Granted to Citigroup to Help Improve the TARP Results & Fannie Freddie May Need Another $400 Billion Taxpayer Assistance & ECB Said to Start Consulting Banks, Investors on Collateral .... No kidding, they are STARTING NOW ! , etc > compare this kind of number with the haggling about the pay for the climate bill.). & strong "regulation" ( Banks Said to Get More Time to Implement Stricter Capital Rules ( Update MEA CULPA! ): & Solving Everything but the Problem ) without loopholes is on the way ..... ;-)

Immerhin sind die Banken ja nachdem weltweit Billionen für die Bankenbailouts geflossen sind jetzt "well capitalized" ( wie gestrige Nachrichten wie $38 Billion Tax Break Granted to Citigroup to Help Improve the TARP Results & Fannie Freddie May Need Another $400 Billion Taxpayer Assistance & ECB Said to Start Consulting Banks, Investors on Collateral .... beruhigend zu wissen das bereits JETZT damit angefangen wird...usw. eindrucksvoll belegen > Richtig gute Laune bekommt man dann wenn man sieht wie verbissen um die Verteilung der Lasten zur Klimarettung verhandelt wird..... Da droht der Gipfel wegen einiger weniger Mrd zu scheitern..... ) & die Schlupflöcher durch die gewohnt "strenge" Regulierung ( z.B. Banks Said to Get More Time to Implement Stricter Capital Rules (Update:MEA CULPA! ) & Solving Everything but the Problem ) geschlossen .. ;-)

There has been a lot of bubble talk ( see Gold: A Contrarian's Dilemma ) when it comes to recent performance of gold. The following chart from Todd Harrison / Minyanville via Pragmatic Capitalist puts things into perspective.....

Gerade in letzter Zeit ist im Angesicht der Outperfmance von Gold immer öfter der Begriff "Bubble" ( siehe Gold: A Contrarian's Dilemma ) gefallen. Da kommt der nachfolgende Chart von Tod Harrison via Pragmatic Capitalist gerade rechtzeitig.....

larger/vergrößerte Version

`There’s no bubble in gold,’ CIBC says Ft Alphaville

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Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Gold: A Contrarian's Dilemma

A must read especially for the long term "freaks" aka GOLD-BUGS like myself that have to deal with the fact that Gold has won lots of "fans" lately and is in the short term unusually crowded....

Pflichtlektüre besonders für alle altgedienten "Freaks" bzw. GOLD-BUGS die momentan damit leben müssen das Gold in extrem kurzer zeit eine Menge neuer "Fans" gewonnen hat und wie die letzte 10% Korrektur binnen 48 Stunden gezeigt kurzfristig sicher mehr als nur etwas überhitzt ist....

A Contrarians Dilemma

H/T Zero Hedge

Good news for the "contrarian"....... Roubini Blasts "The Barbarous Relic," Recommends Spam Over Gold & Gold Buying by Central Banks May Send Signal to Sell

Das sind doch mal gute Nachrichten für den "Contrarian"..... Roubini Blasts "The Barbarous Relic," Recommends Spam Over Gold & Gold Buying by Central Banks May Send Signal to Sell & Angst vor der Goldblase wächst

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Friday, December 04, 2009

Market Quotes From Rosenberg & Hussman

The quotes along with the cartoon reflect pretty much my market outlook ...... Be very careful if you are long ( congratiolations to the courage ) this market...... I´m still sticking with my view that from a risk/reward perspective it makes no sense ( Goldman & BofA Merrill Lynch & JP Morgan & John Paulson beg to differ...... ) to invest ( long term exception Gold, short term it looks a little bit crowded ) in this market. Most Insiders ( Ratio 98:1 ) are also a lot more "cautious"......... And everybody pointing out to the "strong" jobs report on Friday as a sign that fundamentals are playing catch up with this "priced for v-shaped-perfection market" again should take a look at this amusing clip :-)

Die beiden Zitate zusammen mit dem Cartoon geben ziemlich genau meinen Marktausblick wieder.... Denke das jeder der momentan noch investiert ist ( Glückwunsch für den Mut ) sehr wachsam sein sollte...... Ich bleibe dabei das es bereits seit einiger Zeit unter Chance/Risikogesichtspunkten keinen Sinn ( Ausnahme langfristig Gold, kurzfristig sieht es allerdings etwas überhitzt aus ) mehr macht in diesen Märkten zu investieren ( Ganz im Gegenteil zu Goldman & BofA Merrill Lynch & JP Morgan & John Paulson .... ). Die Insider schließen sich bei einen es bei einem Verhältnis von 98 zu 1 eher meiner Meinung an.......Für alle die im Arbeitsmarktbericht vom Freitag die Wende zu besseren Fundamentaldaten erkannt haben wollen die dringenst benötigt werden um den bis zur perfekten V-Shaped Erholung bewerteten Markt auf ein noch steileres "V" zu treiben dem empfehle ich einen Blick auf diesen wirklich gelungenen Clip werfen ;-)

David Rosenberg

"So this remains the Houdini rally — no jobs; no pricing power; no broad participation; and no volume "


"Over the past decade, the stature of the market as an effective discounting mechanism has gradually eroded. The observation and analysis of potential risks – though essential to long-term investing and loss avoidance – is far less actionable than one might expect. Investors will evidently speculate as long they have dice in their hands and the casino is not visibly on fire."

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Thursday, December 03, 2009


At least they have to pay the interest in cash and not aluminium.....;-) Even when this is in part an Kreml lead attempt to save the oligarchs but the"Pay-If-You-Can-Loans" are close to kick theToggle/PIK Bonds from the top spot of "innovations".... ;-) Michael Panzner with his comment "return of irrational exuberance in the credit markets" is spot on. ZH with this summary The High Yield Market Has Officially Topped, With Bondholders Eager To Cash Out Existing Equityholders In The Crappiest Of Names & Distressed debt on the wane in US markets confirms the view that memories are short............

Immerhin müssen wohl noch die Zinsen gezahlt werden......Selbst wenn ein Teil dieser Praxis dem Kreml indirekt dazu dient die Oligarchen zu retten schafft es die Art der Kreditvergabe bzw. Restrukturierungen doch fast inzwischen legendären Toggle/PIK Bonds vom Spitzenplatz der Innovationen zu vertreiben... ;-) Denke das Michael Panzner mit seiner Bemerkung"return of irrational exuberance in the credit markets" der Wirklichkeit ziemlich nahe kommt..... ZH mit einer Auflistung an "Absurditäten" aus dem Kreditbereich ( sieheThe High Yield Market Has Officially Topped, With Bondholders Eager To Cash Out Existing Equityholders In The Crappiest Of Names & Distressed debt on the wane in US markets) bestätigt die Ansicht das hier etwas erheblich aus dem Ruder gelaufen zu sein scheint.....

Bankers Say Deal Is Near to Restructure Rusal’s Debt NYT

Rusal, the world’s largest aluminum producer, which is struggling under $17 billion in debt, is close to an agreement with about 70 banks to restructure its loans on terms considered favorable to the company and its billionaire owner, bankers said on Wednesday

The banks will allow Rusal to operate essentially under a pay-as-you-can agreement, though pegged to aluminum prices, according to terms made public this year. The company will be permitted to roll missed payments into the capital and begin repaying principal only when the global economy recovers, and with it prices for aluminum.

Rusal signs comprehensive debt restructuring deal MW

Russian aluminum giant Rusal said Thursday it has signed a deal on the comprehensive restructuring of its debt of $16.8 billion. The restructuring of $7.4 billion debt to international lenders will be split into two phases, the company said. During the initial four-year period, principal repayments will be made on a "pay-if-you-can" basis predicated on the performance of the business, while the second phase will involve the refinancing of the remaining debt by current lenders for an additional three years.

Rusal has also signed agreements on the restructuring of $2.1 billion of debt with its Russian lenders. It has also agreed with Onexim, a Russian investment fund, to restructure $2.7 billion in debt and to convert $1.82 billion of debt into a 6% shareholding in Rusal. The remaining $880 million of debt will be restructured on the same terms as applicable to the international lenders, with the accumulated interest thereon to be paid in cash.

Rusal's CEO Oleg Deripaska said Rusal "is ready to focus on implementing its new strategic objectives." There has been media speculation in recent weeks that Rusal is preparing for an initial public offering in Hong Kong, though the company hasn't confirmed these reports ( Deripaska plays down Rusal delay > no quick "pump & dump"....)

Rusal Gains Approval for Hong Kong Listing WSJ

But the green light was given on the condition that it won't sell the deal to retail investors, in a bid to "protect" Hong Kong's retail investors from the complexities of the deal ( No "pump & dump" )

I urge everybody to read page 6 from the following High Hendry report about the outlook of the aluminium market ( after he met with management of Norsk Hydro ).....I´m pretty sure the banks have "calculated" this "rosy" outlook in their "pay-if-you-can" repayment shedule..... The clip Prime Minister Putin Bitch Slaps Oleg Deripaska also taken from the report is "hillarious"!

I empfehle allen die Seite 6 des folgenden Reports von Hugh Hendry zu lesen. Der hatte ein eingehendes Gespräch mit Norsk Hydrdo zum Zustand der Aluminiumindustrie......Bin mir sicher das die Banken diesen "überragenden" Ausblick gewohnt konservativ in Ihre "pay-If-You-Can" Kreditkalkulationen mit einberechnet haben.....Aus dem Report auch der Clip Prime Minister Putin Bitch Slaps Oleg Deripaska den man gesehen haben sollte..... ;-)

Hugh Hendry Eclectica Nov09

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