Cramer´s Bull Case For Banks..... I Can Smell A Top... ;-)

Oh boy..... After the ( even by his standarts.... ) famous "Housing & Bank Stock Shortage" call from January 2008 ( NO KIDDING > see "Ten Trillion $ Worth Of Good Calls" ) was a little bit "premature" he is predicting a bank stock shortage version 2.0.... Would at least be honest if he mentioned the "ultimate moral hazard trade" & the "Enron-esque characteristics" when it comes to accounting as the two main reasons behind the motives to own banks.. ;-)

Die Euphorie ist zurück........ Nachdem derselbe Typ Januar 2008 leicht "verfrüht" bereits einmal eine "Housing & Bank Stock Shortage" ( siehe "Ten Trillion $ Worth Of Good Calls") proklamiert hat ist es höchtse Zeit für eine Version 2.0.....Wäre zumindest ehrlich gewesen wenn er in seinen 10 Gründen die unbedingt dafür sprechen sofort massiv Bankaktien zu kaufen den "ultimativen Moral Hazard Trade" sowie die kreative Bilanzierung die stark "Enron-esque characteristics" aufweist als die Topgründe aufführen würde.... ;-)



Just for the record here are the two main ETF´s tracking the financial sector.....

Nur um die Daten festzuhalten nachfolgend die beiden relevanten Bank/Finanz EFT´s....

Financial Select Sector ETF) $ 15,47 & KBW Regional Banking (ETF) $ 25,47

Needless to say that both ( along with almost every asset class worldwide ) are trading at 52 week highs & had the longest winning streaks since 1995.....Especially Citigroup seems to be a "real bargain"... ;-)

Überflüssig zu erwähnen das die EFT´s ( wie fast alle anderen Anlageklassen weltweit ) auf Jahreshochs stehen & gerade die längste Gewinnserie seit 1995 hinter sich haben....Besonders Citigroup scheint ein "echtes Schnäppchen" zu sein... ;-)

John Hussman Rips Apart CNBC ZH

In reflecting on why the past 15 years have been so riddled by irresponsible speculation, it is impossible to ignore the rise over that same period of widely-viewed financial programming that is equally riddled with cartoonish content that encourages short-term thinking and speculation (buy-buy-buy! sell-sell-sell! boo-yah!)

"Anti Spin" from Chris Whalen via NC ( MUST READ!!!!)

In fact, the banking system is continuing to sink under bad loans and even worse securities losses. Telling the public that the banks are “fixed” is irresponsible. Unfortunately this false perception is widespread, including among major media such as CNBC and also with a number of my clients in the hedge fund world.

But at least Bubblevision is a very good tool to spot sentiment......

Immerhin muß man Bubblevision lassen das es kaum ein besseres Barometer gibt wenn es darum geht die Stimmungen "einzufangen".....

UPDATE: Unrelated....... Ohne Bezug.... ;-)

Citi: Bove Raises to “Buy”; Citicorp Is New Model for U.S. Banks

He figures Citi is worth about $8.50 in that outlook.

"Wall Street Finest & Lehman June 2008 ZH

Hoenig Says Big Banks Must Either Add $210 Billion In New Capital Or Reduce Total Assets By $3 Trillion; Bank Capital Raises Imminent ZH

The Government Won´t Make Any Money On This Deal.......

Looks like a "Deja Vu".....Compare this with the news from July ...... They have kicked the can three month down the road ( DESPERATION when you look at the maturity schedule )....... BRAVO! Needless to say that when they received the TARP money CIT were classified as "well capitalised".......If the WSJ & Reuters are correct it is very good news that we finally see the Debt To Equity Swap in a not so small ( see CIT Analyst Presentation ) financial company ....Too bad for CIT that they are not TBTF like Citi ( see yesterdays news Citi is still using FDIC TLGP ) ......

Fühlt sich wie ein Deja Vu an......Vergleicht die heutige Meldung bitte mal mit der vom Juli...... CIT hat es immerhin geschafft sich ganze 3 Monate Luft zu verschaffen ( pure Verzweiflung wenn man einen Blick auf die Fälligkeiten wirft )......BRAVO! Ganz nebenbei bemerkt war CIT zum Zeitpunkt der als die TARP Mrd flossen "well capitalized".....Sollten das WSJ & Reuters richtig liegen bleibt festzuhalten das wir endlich den ersten Debt To Equity Swap in einem nicht ganz kleinen Finanzinstitut ( ein Blick in die CIT Analysten Presentation gibt eine gute Übersicht ) zu sehen bekommen. Dumm für CIT hat sie nicht wie Citi ( siehe gestrige Meldung Citi Still Using FDIC TLGP ) in die Kategorie "Too Big Too Fail" fallen.....

CIT Readies Plan to Hand Control to Bondholders WSJ

Lender Readies Plan to Hand Control to Bondholders; Bankruptcy Filing Is an Option

The fate of CIT Group Inc. was hanging in the balance Tuesday as the large commercial lender readied a plan that would likely hand control of the company to its bondholders.

CIT is preparing a sweeping exchange offer that would eliminate 30% to 40% of its more than $30 billion in debt outstanding, said people familiar with the matter.

The plan would offer bondholders new debt secured by CIT assets, as well as nearly all of the equity in a restructured firm. The new debt would mature later than current debt, the impending maturity of which has posed a problem for CIT.

The plan sets up a potential showdown between bondholders with debt coming due soon and those whose debt does not come due for years. If the company doesn't receive enough bondholder support, it plans to execute the restructuring in bankruptcy court, the people familiar with the situation said.

While the plan is being developed by a steering committee of bondholders in consultation with CIT management, many of those involved said they didn't expect that the company could avoid seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, given competing bondholder interests.

If CIT does file, it would be the fifth-largest bankruptcy filing, by assets, in U.S. history, trailing only Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Washington Mutual Inc., WorldCom Inc. and General Motors Corp. CIT would continue operating under creditor protection, although other financial businesses have struggled to remain viable in bankruptcy.

CIT declined to comment. The people familiar with the matter cautioned that talks remained fluid and many details remained to be determined, including the amount of debt CIT needed to extinguish to avoid a bankruptcy filing.

Having run out of funding options this summer, given its "junk" credit rating, CIT faced the looming need to roll over debt that was maturing. The firm teetered on the verge of a bankruptcy filing before it got a rescue package in late July.

CIT had sought relief from federal regulators and last December did receive $2.3 billion under the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

In 2009, however, federal regulators declined further aid, having determined that a failure by CIT wouldn't severely harm the economy. That left the lender scrambling to right a balance sheet burdened by bad real-estate and commercial loans.

CIT avoided a bankruptcy filing in late July when a group of large bondholders such as Pimco, Oaktree Capital and Silver Point Capital infused $3 billion in last-minute financing. The money acted like a "bridge" for CIT to prepare a debt-exchange offer.

UPDATE via Zero Hedge ( couldn´t resist )

Citi and CIT Are Primed for Upside, by Jim Cramer 9/29/2009, 1:54 PM EDT

....I put both of these up there as examples of companies that won't die, and because they won't die, they live. I know that seems a little circular in reasoning, but because Citigroup never suffered a run like Wachovia and Washington Mutual did, it made it and as our flagship site mentioned, it is safe. If it is safe, it can go higher. Because no one forced CIT into bankruptcy, it can live to play again, and when I read in the New York Post that Paulson owns CIT debt, I realized that he's powerful enough to save this company, particularly because he is one of the investors in IndyMac and knows his way around the bottom of the debt barrel.

These two stocks represent lottery tickets that are no longer rip-ups because they have made it out of the "critical care" stage and are recovering. I would buy them both.

> Nice timing Jim..... Add this expertise to his "Ten Trillion $ Worth Of Good Calls"..... ;-) But after watching the other ZOMBIE stocks ( AIG, FRE, FNM ) spiking higher & considering the market rationale these days it would not surprise me to see the stock move higher..... Stock closed down 45 percent.....

> Autsch......Gelungenes Timing..... Denke dieser Expertenrat reiht sich nathlos an die Reihe der "Ten Trillion $ Worth Of Good Calls" ein..... ;-) Nachdem was ansonsten mit anderen ZOMBIEAKTIEN ( AIG, FRE, FNM, Arcandor, Hypo Real Estate usw ) geschehen ist bzw man die aktuelle Risikobereitschaft berücksichtigt ist nicht ausgeschlossen das selbst diese Meldung noch zu Kurssprüngen führt... Aktie reagiert überraschenderweise mit einem "Abschlag" von 45% vollkommen rational....

Cramer Jan 2008 "Ten Trillion $ Worth Of Good Calls"

With reassuring news out from Merrill "We Don´t Need To Raise Capital" Lynch i just couldn´t resist to post this piece from Cramer. I think his call from January 2008 for a "Housing & Bank Stock Shortage" is even by his standarts "outstanding" ......

Nachdem mal wieder beruhigende Meldungen aus dem Hause Merrill "We Don´t Need To Raise Capital" Lynch kommen kann ich es mir nicht verkneifen ein Video vom Chefeinpeitscher aus dem Hause CNBC Jim Cramer zu posten. Da lobe ich mir doch schon fast Förtsch, Prior und Co...... Viel Spaß beim selbst für seine Verhältnisse "aussergewöhnliche" Vorhersage.....

No Kidding....Cramer Sees A Housing Shortages 12 Month From Now.....

This one is too outrageous to pass.... Every time you think Cramer has hit a new low ( see label for numerous examples ) he comes out with another piece of ( lets put it mildly) garbage...........It should be no surprise that he made his comments at the end of last week when especially the homebuilders have recovered some of massive losses ( largely due to short covering ). For a realistic picture see the charts via Calculated Risk on how stock market driven this guy is....... After the slump over the past 2 days i assume he is already revising his forecast..... And the woman from bubblevision is calling him "character of integrety"....... They really should switch to the Comedy Channel... Here we go Cramer Video .

Das ist einfach zu unverschämt um das durchgehen zu lassen.... Immer wenn man denkt das einer der bekanntesten US Börsenkommentatoren sein Tief bereits erreciht hat ( siehe Label für zahlreiche tragisch-komische Beispiele) wird eine neue Sichtweise aus dem Hut gezaubert die man wen man höflich ist als bodenlose Fechheit titulieren muß.....Es sollte nicht überraschen das seine Aussagen Ende der letzten Woche gemacht worden sind als insbesonders der Homebuilderindex massiv an Wert gewonnen hat ( in erster Linie getrieben durch Shorteindeckungen) . Für ein realistisches Bild genügt ein Blick auf die Charts von Calculated Risk . Ebenfalls wenig verwunderlich das die Moderatorin ihn als "integeren Charakter bezeichnet".... Die wäre auf dem Comedy Channel wirklich besser untergebracht.....Hier ist da gute Stück Cramer Video ....

Number Of The Day....."Investor Sentiment"

WOW! Just waking up in Germany and looking at my screen. Asia and especially Honk Kong is up sharply, Gold at $ 793, the Greenback is tanking again, commodities are soaring, yields (of course) almost unchanged, US Futures are roaring higher.....

Was für Wochenstart! Gucke mir wie üblich gerade nach dem Aufstehen mal die Märkte an. Asien und besonders Hong Kong massiv gen Norden, etliche Indizes auf Rekordhöhen, Gold bei knappen 800$, Der US$ weiter im freien Fall, alle Rohstoffe auf dem Weg nach oben, Die Renditen (logischerweise) kaum verändert, US Futures massiv grün......

Fleckenstein

If you think of the return to sanity as a positive development, there's reason to be encouraged by Investors Intelligence's report, which recorded the most lopsided sentiment reading in many years. Last week, bulls stood at 62% and bears at about 19%. For anyone who's been around the stock market for any length of time, that is a clear warning sign.

On top of this i´ve found this chart from Ticker Sense October 22nd Blogger Sentiment Poll

Passend hierzu der October 22nd Blogger Sentiment Poll von Ticker Sense.

I hope you have seen this clip on investor sentiment. One of the best and funniest clips on this topic! One of the most prominent examples how quick the sentiment can change is the meltdown from Jim Cramer. A few days after this he raised his target for the Dow to 14500.....No kidding.....

Ich kann nur hoffen das Ihr diesen Clip zum "Investor Sentiment" schon gesehen habt. Mit Sicherheit einer des treffensten und zugleich lustigsten Beschreibungen zu diesem Thema. Eines der wohl bekanntesten Beispiele wie schnell die Stimmung umschlagen kann ist Jim Cramer der bereits einige Tage nachdem er das Ende der Welt prophezeit sein Kursziel für den DOW auf 14500 erhöht hat. Ein heisser Anwärter auf den Titel "Wendehals des Jahres" :-)

I would like to see a seperate poll for the sentiment in Hong Kong .......

Ich würde zu gerne eine seperate Investorenbefragung für Hong Kong sehen .........

The Hang Seng has now put on more than 11 per cent in the past week, and almost 55 per cent since its August low amid the credit squeeze.

Countrywide Shares Fall After Report Lender Needs More Capital

What a difference a few month made..... Mozillo deserves every Schadenfreude that is out there.....Make sure you don´t miss this Video "Cramer praising Countrywide and Mozillo" just a few month ago. The quotes from Cramer and Mozilla are just priceless! A classic!

Welch ein Unterschied doch ein paar Monate ausmachen......Der CEO Mozillo verdient alle nur erdenklichen Schadenfreude ..... Ich kann jedem dieses erst ein paar Monate alte Interview mit dem Interview mit dem CEO empfehlen. Es ist nicht zu fassen das diese Zitate und Aussagen erst 6 Monate alt sind.... LOL!

Thanks to Stock Mania

Countrywide Shares Fall After Report Lender Needs More Capital
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, fell almost 5 percent in early trading after the New York Post reported that a second multibillion-dollar bailout ( should be investment) of the company is being negotiated.

``Countrywide is in desperate need of cash right now to continue funding mortgages, and the credit markets are still largely closed to them,'' the newspaper said, quoting a source familiar with the company.

> Maybe they shouldn´t have waste their borrowed money buying back stocks just a few month ago.....

> Es wäre wohl besser gewesen während der letzten Monate nicht mit geborgtem Geld eigenen Aktien zurückzukaufen......

Countrywide .... Genius At Work......
Countrywide conference call review october 2006

"Additionally, as previously announced, management is executing a capital optimization plan and the Board of Directors has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $2.5 billion. In connection with this program, the Company intends to repurchase $1 billion to $2 billion of its common stock in the fourth quarter financed through the issuance of high equity-content debt securities."

from May 2007!
Countrywide Financial Corporation Announces Agreement to Sell $2 Billion of Series A Floating Rate Convertible Senior Debentures Due 2037 and $2 Billion of Series B Floating Rate Convertible Senior Debentures Due 2037

Countrywide Financial will use a portion of the net proceeds from this offering to fund repurchases of up to 23 million shares of its common stock simultaneously with this offering and expects to use the remainder for general corporate purposes.

> Needless to say that during that time Mozillo has sold lots of shares.....

> Überflüssig zu erwähnen das der CEO während dieser Zeit Tonnen von Aktien abgeladen hat.....

Thanks to The Mess That Greenspan Made

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and the law firm Wachtell Lipton Rosen & Katz are working with Calabasas, California-based Countrywide to negotiate a cash infusion similar to the $2 billion package Bank of America Corp. agreed to provide last month, the newspaper said. Possible lenders include JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., according to the Post.

Countrywide said last week it would eliminate as many as 12,000 jobs, or 20 percent of its workforce, after investors stopped buying loans and lenders alarmed by rising subprime defaults refused to provide capital to mortgage companies.

Countrywide was at $16.36 in early trading, down 4.9 percent from the close yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange. The shares have lost almost 60 percent of their value this year.

Countrywide was forced to tap $11.5 billion of emergency financing last month to replace hard-to-sell commercial paper.

Disclosure: Short KBW Mortgage Finance Index (including CFC)

Quotes Of The Day / Cramer & Hussman

Looks like Cramer has gotten over his 2 week "depression" and is now back with one of his regular U-turns. How will this guy act if we see more than a 10 percent correction ? Can´t wait for his next meltdown . But the last one should be hard to top. But with Cramer you never know. Needless to say that his severe amnesia part 218 & part 1 is still with him...

Es sieht so aus als wenn Cramer seine kurzfristige "Depression" überwunden hat und mit einer seiner üblichen 180 Grad Wendungen wieder zurückgekehrt ist. Man fragt sich wie der gute Mann bei einem richtigen Korrektur von über 10% reagiert. Ich bin jedenfall mehr als gespannt wann der nächste Rückfall kommen wird. Der letzte Ausraster wird aber sicher kaum noch zu toppen sein. Ich denke das es überflüssig zu erwähnen ist das seine Amnesie part 218 & part 1 ist immer noch nicht "geheilt"....

Jim Cramer, the CNBC television host who led the howls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, got his wish today.

``They obviously heard us, they acted,'' he said on the air.

``This is the beginning of the run to 14,500.''

I´ll take the opposite view and go with the consistent Hussman

Ich denke es ist besser sich am "Anti Cramer" John Hussman zu orientieren

Look at the composition of S&P 500 earnings. Financials currently make up about 25% of the S&P 500 market capitalization, but close to 40% of
the earnings.

Wages and salaries as a fraction of U.S. corporate profits have rarely been lower. Irresponsible lending and suppressed labor costs have been strong contributors to S&P 500 earnings in recent years thanks to a massive leveraging cycle – financial profits exploded, while wage demands stayed low because it was easy to spend out of home equity withdrawals and strong real-estate gains. But these are not permanent factors, and it is dangerous to value stocks as if recent profit margins will endure in perpetuity.

Nice to see that Barrons is also "Shorting Cramer"

Schön zu sehen das Barrons ebenfalls "Cramer shorted"

If you can stand more episodes from Cramer click on the label.

Wenn ihr es aushalten könnt noch mehr Weisheiten von Ihm zu hören klickt bitte auf das Label.

Raging Bull or Hoofy Is Topping The Cramer Rant / Minyanville TV

BRILLIANT!

Make sure you click on the headline to start the clip

Klickt bitte auf die Überschrift um dieses "Meisterwerk" zu starten.

Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz

Colbert "Bears & Balls" Cramer Edition

For the the real "amnesia" cramer click at the label

Für den wahren Cramer mit schwerer Amnesie bitte auf das Label klicken

Cramer Amnesia Part 218 From Lou Minatti

Big hat tip from Germany to Lou Minatti for unmasking Cramer

Here are other Cramer clips worth watching

Hier gibt es weitere sehenswerte Clips

Cramer meltdown
excellent Cramer meltdown iTulip version
"Cramer Amnesia Part 1"
Cramer iTullip classic

Cramer Must See....

Folks this is a must see...... Like I said before someone has to call a doctor..... They should switch him to Comedy Central...... This clip has the potential to be one for the "Hall Of Fame"

Wie ich bereits vorher gesagt habe muß der Typ dringend zum Arzt..... Wer das verpasst hat selber schuld. Klares "Hall of Fame Potential :-)

Big hat tip to Keith from Housing Panic

> On the older pictures he looks harmless.......

> Auf den älteren Bildern sieht er recht harmlos aus..... Have a nice weekend

Allen ein schönes Wochenende

Help Cramer....He Has Severe Amnesia

This guy needs help.....This was the headline from a piece that he made in August 2006 "Panic Over Option ARMS Is Just Noise" .

Thanks to Twist and John from Housing Doom for digging this Cramer video!!!!

Dieser Typ braucht wohl wirklich Hilfe......Vergleicht den Clip mit seinem Aussagen vom letzten August.....

Panic Over Option ARMS Is Just Noise ( Cramer August 2006)!

Everyone who uses a Option ARM is an idiot and will lose his house when rates go higher. There. There's a constant theme in the drumbeat of the press that the housing market is the Achilles heel of the economy.

What a joke. OK, so 12% of borrowers have taken out these unique loans that allow you to call your own shots, up from 8% a year ago. You get to have a teaser low rate that is much below what you would have without it.

The implication of the media is that people are buying these homes to flip them, and when the value doesn't go higher they will freak out and become casualties of the new higher rates and will have to default on their houses, leading to a continued glut of homes.

Sorry, that's just stupid. I am sure some of the borrowers are speculative, but you know what? Funny thing. The borrowers are not morons. They can read the papers, too. They recognize that homes aren't selling.

I would bet that most of these borrowers are simply younger people with new jobs who are correctly taking advantage of a low rate. People who have taken this rate have been very right. The long end hasn't gone up. It seems like it won't go up now. So while they build up some savings with the low rate, they get stronger down the road and then can take the higher rate.

The media call it dangerous. I call it prudence !

July 2007!


This epsiode of Cramer is almost as good as this iTulip classic

Diese Episode von Cramer kann es fast mit diesem iTulip Klassiker aufnehmen

Kass: Subprime's Siren Call

kass was right like fleckenstein! a little bit early but the latest events should have rewarded them ......

kass lag genau wie fleckenstein die ganze zeit richtig. das timining war etwas früh aber die letzten wochen dürften dafür entschädigt haben.....


Maybe Jim "El Capitan" Cramer is right when he writes, Get Over Subprime's Collapse and in his view that the brokerage companies will be relatively immune from the subprime carnage. ( or waiting with cramer and friends....)

But I doubt it.

It is far too easy and convenient to dismiss the subprime woes based on the notion that because it is on the cover of The New York Times http://tinyurl.com/2xn2aj or on the tongue of many market commentators, it is either discounted or not as bad as it seems. Rather than listen to the comments of others on the Street and in the media, I prefer to deal in facts as opposed to simple and glib sound bites.

Here is a tidbit from Page 132 (yes, I do read every page in these filings!) of Goldman Sachs' 10-K dated Nov. 24, 2006.

....During the years ended November 2006 and November 2005, the firm securitized $103.92 billion and $92.00 billion, respectively, of financial assets, including $67.73 billion and $65.18 billion, respectively, of residential mortgage loans and securities. Cash flows received on retained interests were approximately $801 million and $908 million for the years ended November 2006 and November 2005, respectively. As of November 2006 and November 2005, the firm held $7.08 billion and $6.07 billion of retained interests, respectively, including $5.18 billion and $5.62 billion, respectively, held in QSPEs.

Note to Cramer: El Capitan: I am officially ordering a Code Red!

The Subprime Fungus
"I guess we are a bit surprised at how fast this (subprime) has unraveled." -- Tom Zimmerman, head of Asset-Backed Securities research at UBS, in a recent conference call for institutional investors. ( he should be "ex-head" of ubs...der sollte bald ex chef sein....)

The fungus of subprime credits has grown in scope and in economic consequence over the last three months. We are now beginning to experience a full-blown bursting of the latest asset bubble, which could prove even more devastating than the piercing of the Nasdaqstock bubble in 2000. The impact of the subprime collapse on the availability of mortgage credit -- and, in turn, consumer spending -- is the primary reason why I believe the U.S. economy and corporate profits will materially disappoint most observers, and why the equity markets remain vulnerable.

Many like Cramer, Larry Kudlow and others, readily dismiss the potential spending consequences of substantially less capacity in the subprime mortgage-lending market and the emerging trend by mainstream originators and lenders to reduce lending in the primary mortgage market and for refinancing cashouts.

Indeed, Jim takes the subprime issue one step further, noting that the mortgage house of pain will have a salutary market and economic result, as it will hasten the Federal Reserve's path toward monetary ease. ( cramer´s mana )

thanks to http://www.wallstreetfollies.com/

Shockingly (at least to me), many others can't comprehend the link between mortgage availability and consumer spending, claiming that the correlation between the two variables is unclear. (this chart is really confusing.....dieser chart ist in der tat nicht einfach zu deuten....)

I have not touched on the outlook for considerably higher credit losses at the financial intermediaries that address the housing market, which I will reserve for a future time. (read more at the label loan loss reserves, skip the first/this )

However, I will underscore the perfunctory conference calls and the generally disingenuous role of Wall Street rating agencies, which continue to hide the damage for owners of collateralized product paper as it relates to the collapse of the subprime market.

It seems that at the end of every cycle's excesses, the investment community rationalizes the indefensible, owing to the enormous profitability of the products that are being peddled. The higher a market surges, the easier the product is to sell, but the less straightforward the pitch becomes.

amen!

colbert on cramer, subprime, sirius, stock market etc... / video :-)

make sure you see this video and click on the headline!!!



bitte zwingend auf die überschrift klicken. man muß dazu sagen das der im clip vorkommende cramer in den usa ne art kultstatus geniesst und ne art guru ist. zudem hat er auf cnbc die mit abstand höchsten quoten. noch fragen..........


almost as funny as cnbc, etc.........

the daily show / cheney...could also be about cramer

this is a wonderful piece about cheney. i think you easy can make such a piece about cramer. on is also totally inconsistent and flip flopping on a daily basis (housing, subprime, recession, fed etc.)

maybe there are some different "cramer" models running around wall street......... :-)

click on the headline to start the video (10 secounds commercial)

wenn ihr ein bisschen was zum lachen haben wollt solltet ihr euch das ansehen. cheney scheint nicht nur bei uns in europa ziemlich unbeliebt zu sein.

ein ähnliches stück könnte man auch über einige börsengurus anfertigen. mir fällt hier aus den usa ein gewisser cramer ein der praktisch täglich seine meinung ändert. manchmal sogar mehrmals täglich......

klickt auf die überschrift (10 sekunden werbespot vorgeschaltet)

Kass: Short Side Never Looked So Good

wow! waking up today in germany and see the intraday chart of the us markets gives us skeptics and bears reward for almost 3 month of pain. i think with yesterdays "correction" some highly leveraged people are getting really nervous. and they should.

donnerwetter. nachdem ich mir gerade mit einem auge (mit dem anderen beim langlauf) die us intradaycharts angesehen habe denke ich das wir "skeptiker" für fast 3 monate entschädigt worden sind. ich wette das momentan einige hochgehebelte marktteilnehmer nervös werden. und die haben sicher allen grund dazu.

i agree 100% with doug kass and the only difference is that i´m still long gold. i find it funny how they try to blame it on china. almost every markets should have corrected a long tome ago. the fundamentals were worsening day by day. the worse the data the higher the stocks. it´s not china, its the economy stupid!

ich stimme mit doug zu 100% überein. einziger unterschied ist das ich noch immer long im gold bin. besonders lustig wie jetzt alles auf china abgewältzt wird. fakt ist das die märkte bereits vor einigen monaten hätten korrigieren müssen. teilweise hatte man das gefühl je schlechter die news desto besser für die kurse.


just ask cramer. recession is good, subprime meltdwon is good, housingcrash is good (funny because he has never seen a bubble......) his only argument was lower rates! after a recession he prays probably for a depression. this guy is really a clown (i´m too polite to call what he really is...). here are some from cramers worst
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/02/rip-van-winklevs-cramer-hussman.html




fragt mal cramer (die us ausgabe von förtsch, frick etc). der hat sich bis gestern ne fette rezession, einen crash im subprimesektor, einen crash im immobereich (merkwürdig da er die existenz eines bubble nicht erkennen konnte). sein einziges argument war das die fed dann ja die zinsen senken muß. nach der rezession hätte er wohl für die depression gebetet. der typ hat auf cnbc die höchsten einschaltquoten. will ais höflichkeit nicht sagen was ich von solchen typen halte. unter dem link oben ein paar highlights von ihm



I am on the road traveling today, but I wanted to say that on Monday, for the first time since early 2000, I went all in on the short side. That is a reflection of how negative I am about this market.

Despite too often sounding like the boy who cried "wolf" in light of the continued market ascent, I have spent the past several weeks outlining my investment rationale and my major concerns:
heightened debt loads among consumers, the government and hedge funds; rising mortgage credit losses, which will weigh on a spent-up, not pent-up consumer; nascent inflation, seen in rising raw materials spot prices and crude lately; the ever-present specter of geopolitical tensions; and corporate profit and profit margin vulnerability.

thanks to barry ritholtz http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

Above all, investors are not being paid for risk -- and excessive valuations are not being recognized. As Robert Marcin
pointed out Monday, today's median P/E of 20.5 times trailing earnings of the Value Line composite of 3,000 leading companies compares to 14.5 times at the market's top in the fall of 2000; meanwhile, credit spreads and volatility --expressions of copious complacency -- remain at record low levels.
Today was by far the largest increase (64.22%) in the VIX since 1990http://tickersense.typepad.com/


Here are some reasons we're at such a precarious point.

1. Brokerages and money center banks are rolling over badly and remain a negative short-term market tell.

2. Hedge fund net-long invested levels (61%) are at the highest level and the AAII survey has bears at the lowest level since December 2004.


3. The daytrading in the Chinese market has begun to eerily resemble daytrading in the Nasdaq, which peaked seven years ago. (The more things change, the more they are the same, though the location changes.)

4. Virtually every hedge fund has the yen carry trade on its books, and recent signs in the currency markets indicate that the trade is getting less compelling. (If it does begin to unfold, the young hot money -- especially in the emerging markets like China -- could reverse in a nanosecond).

5. Two weeks ago, England's Times of London published a report that Countrywide Financial would be acquired by Bank of America . Again, the shares rose by nearly 10%, though they have subsequently declined by nearly 15% as subprime problems have grown. The outsize reactions to less-than-legitimate sources is typical these days. (despite the crash in the subprime cfc reached almost an all time high!/trotz subprime crash fast ein ath )

6. History shows that four-year extensions of bull markets, out of deep oversolds, often morph into disaster: 1932-36 (1937 crash); 1957-61 (1962 crash); and 1982-86 (1987 crash). We're well into four years in the current stretch.

7. Writing again on history (and technical voodoo), over the last century every decade has seen a market crash/deep correction in the sixth or seventh year of that decade.

Above all, the lifeblood of the bull market is the availability of credit, and the subprime issues (dismissed by most, not surprisingly) are putting a halt to lending that for years has disregarded creditworthiness and plain common sense. As night follows day, personal spending will plunge just at a time when most believe the consumer is invincible.

The opportunities on the short side have never been more attractive, just as the signs of a breakdown of the impressive bull market run have started to appear -- a potentially lethal combination.

can´t wait for abby ....... thanks to http://www.wallstreetfollies.com/


i wanted to add that the latest action in the private equity sector with deals like eop/blackstone and the txu/kkr has shown me that the final stage of the excess is near.

make sure you read what will hopefully mark the peak of leveraged deals http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/02/next-biggest-buyout-everkkr-may-buy-txu.html, http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/02/kkrgoldman-spinning-utx-deal-as-green.html, http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/02/commercial-property-madness-numbers-on.html

mir persönlich haben die letzten transaktionen der private equity firmen mit deals wie eop, txu aber auch hochtief etc gezeigt das nach oben nicht mehr viel steigerung möglich waren. kann jedem raten den wahnsinn und evtl. historischen konditionen der deals oben nachzulesen.

Signs of a Market Top :-) / kass

as someone who is also bearish on the overall market i can feel with doug...... sometimes you really need humor to deal with the market.

als jemand der auch eher skeptisch eingestellt ist kann ich mit ihm fühlen.... man benötigt schon ne gute dosis humor um mit diesem markt umzugehen




.......7. I have been called almost daily by Bloomberg TV and CNBC to represent the bear case. The segment bookers have explained to me that there are no bears left to interview.


6. After lecturing in his graduate school business class at Yale University in January, even permabear Dr. Robert Shiller told me I am too bearish on housing.

5. When I request to borrow stocks (to short) from my prime broker, Bank of America , I have begun to hope the borrow will be denied.

4. I get irate when I listen to the bullish (and seemingly glib) case for equities made daily in the media. (Worse yet, the bulls are starting to make sense to me.)


3. I have finally run out of cheap tequila in my bar, which I drink most evenings on the cold linoleum floor, so in order to reduce my level of anxiety, I have doubled my daily Zoloft intake.

2. My 14-year-old niece, Natalie, asked me at my birthday party last Sunday: "Uncle Dougie, why don't you ever buy stocks; it's dumb not to, isn't it?"

1. Last week I ordered three "Mad Money" Jim Cramer talking bobble heads from NBC's Universal Store online, but they couldn't be sent out, as they have been backordered for three months.


thanks to http://www.wallstreetfollies.com/

my personal sign of a market top would be if i start to watch cnbc again and listen to guys like cramer, battipaglia, etc.........i´ll let you know.......

mein persönliches zeichen für ein top ist wenn ich wieder anfange cnbc zu sehen und auf leute wie cramer, battipaglia etc höre. ( vergleichbar mit den bei uns bekannten förtsch, aktionär, frick ntv etc)......ich werde bescheid sagen........

Rip Van Winkle....vs cramer / hussman

to give hussman credit. he never mentioned the name "cramer" (polite). hussman is really consistent and the "anti cramer". some call him boring but his strategy works in the longer term. he is especially good when the market climate becomes a little bit more cloudy. (thanks to barry http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/02/quote_of_the_da.html for the performance graph)

hussman verdient wohl die bezeichnung "anti cramer". einige nennen es langweilig usw. aber erwiesenenmaßen hat er ne gute performance. besonders dann wenn es an den märkten etwas ruppiger zugeht. ausserdem kann man ihm zugute halten das er den namen cramer nicht öffentlich genannt hat. der mann ist einfach zu höflich.

Today,” said Rip Van Winkle, “is nice.” And with that, after a game of bowling and drinking in the mountains with a band of dwarves, he fell asleep for 20 years. When he awoke, he found that the world had changed

At a point where investors' attention is dominated by a hyperactive, minute-by-minute, open-to-close focus on market fluctuations, it's easy to forget that generally speaking, day traders never made – and certainly didn't keep – the hot money that they chased during the late 90's.


If frantic day-to-day attention to market movements serves to do anything, it is to convince investors that they cannot afford to miss any short-term rally; that they can't afford to miss the latest utterance from the Fed; that they can't afford to miss the latest “hot play” offered up to the masses. It does not, however, serve to earn investors sustainable profits.


"You want my top 10 stocks for who is going to make it in the new world?" said one (cramer/added) of these heroes at the February 2000 Electronics and Internet Conference (eight days before the Nasdaq peaked). Stocks that could be bought and held in that brave new world, in preference to all others?

I needn't review the carnage that followed – the names alone tell the story. (have found more details) http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2006/03/24/sad-money-cramers-stock-picking-prowess-in-question/

In an article dated 2/29/00 by James J. Cramer published on TSCM entitled “The Winners of the New World"

They Are: A. Approx Price in 2000 B. in 2006
1. 724 Solutions (SVNX) A. 9.24 B. 3.22
2. Ariba (ARBA) A. 152.75 B. 10.12
3. Digital Island (ISLD) NA
4. Exodus (EXDS) NA
5. InfoSpace (INSP) A. 30.25 B. 28.14
6. Inktomi (INKT) NA
7. Mercury Interactive (MERQ - MERQ.PK) NA
8. Sonera (SNRA) NA
9. Verisign (VRSN) A. 202.56 B. 23.50
10. Veritas Software (VRTS) NA.

now back to hussman
I needn't review the carnage that followed – the names alone tell the story.

At the other extreme is Papa Van Winkle, ...... He falls asleep for years at a time. .........

Nevertheless, old Rip has come out pretty well over the years. He's outperformed the S&P 500 since 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and even over the past decade. And though he's earned over three times what the S&P 500 has achieved, including dividends, his deepest pullback over that period has been less than half of what the S&P 500 has periodically lost. He slept through most of the 1973-74 bear market, through the '87 crash, through the 2000-2002 bear market. Shhhhh. He's asleep now too.

What's Papa Van Winkle's secret? Simple. He doesn't overstay his welcome in overvalued markets.
Once the price/peak earnings multiple on the S&P 500 hits 19, he looks for the most minimal confirmation to get out – either a decline in the S&P 500 below its 10-week moving average, or a drop in investment advisory bearishness (Investors' Intelligence) below 30% bears.

Then he goes to sleep.

Once he does, he snores through everything – even improvements in valuations – until the S&P 500 drops 30% from its highs on a weekly closing basis. No less. Sometimes he sleeps for years on end. Sometimes he misses enormous short-term advances. No matter. They're never retained by investors anyway.

Again, I wouldn't recommend old Rip's strategy in practice. It would be psychologically impossible to follow, and there are far better ones that capture greater gains with more controlled risk.

Still, the Rip Van Winkle strategy illustrates an essential point: advances in overvalued markets are regularly given back at great cost to investors who overstay, and can be avoided at no cost to long-term investors.

here are some more cramer quotes: (somehow this guy looks like ......../ hat irgendwie ähnlichkeit....)

first one from the "hall of fame" http://www.itulip.com/awards.htm ( a must see!)

September 2000: Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator"SUNW probably has the best near-term outlook of any company I know." (Within four months Sun Microsystems went from $60 to $30, down to $10 in a year, below $3 in two years.)http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/wall-street-talk.html

august 2006 :Panic Over Option ARMS Is Just Noise..." The media call it dangerous. I call it prudence. ! "http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/cramer-wie-zu-dotcom-zeiten.html

and http://www.cramerwatch.org/ (thanks to rj )

i know that this not well balanced...but i don´t care. :-)

mir schon klar das diese aussagen etwas gemein sind. mir aber egal und der messias cramer wird es wohl auch verkraften. :-)