Sunday, August 19, 2007

Quotes Of The Day / Cramer & Hussman

Looks like Cramer has gotten over his 2 week "depression" and is now back with one of his regular U-turns. How will this guy act if we see more than a 10 percent correction ? Can´t wait for his next meltdown . But the last one should be hard to top. But with Cramer you never know. Needless to say that his severe amnesia part 218 & part 1 is still with him...

Es sieht so aus als wenn Cramer seine kurzfristige "Depression" überwunden hat und mit einer seiner üblichen 180 Grad Wendungen wieder zurückgekehrt ist. Man fragt sich wie der gute Mann bei einem richtigen Korrektur von über 10% reagiert. Ich bin jedenfall mehr als gespannt wann der nächste Rückfall kommen wird. Der letzte Ausraster wird aber sicher kaum noch zu toppen sein. Ich denke das es überflüssig zu erwähnen ist das seine Amnesie part 218 & part 1 ist immer noch nicht "geheilt"....

Jim Cramer, the CNBC television host who led the howls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, got his wish today.

``They obviously heard us, they acted,'' he said on the air.


``This is the beginning of the run to 14,500.''


I´ll take the opposite view and go with the consistent Hussman

Ich denke es ist besser sich am "Anti Cramer" John Hussman zu orientieren

Look at the composition of S&P 500 earnings. Financials currently make up about 25% of the S&P 500 market capitalization, but close to 40% of
the earnings.

Wages and salaries as a fraction of U.S. corporate profits have rarely been lower. Irresponsible lending and suppressed labor costs have been strong contributors to S&P 500 earnings in recent years thanks to a massive leveraging cycle – financial profits exploded, while wage demands stayed low because it was easy to spend out of home equity withdrawals and strong real-estate gains. But these are not permanent factors, and it is dangerous to value stocks as if recent profit margins will endure in perpetuity.

Nice to see that Barrons is also "Shorting Cramer"

Schön zu sehen das Barrons ebenfalls "Cramer shorted"

If you can stand more episodes from Cramer click on the label.

Wenn ihr es aushalten könnt noch mehr Weisheiten von Ihm zu hören klickt bitte auf das Label.

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4 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"This is the beginning of the run to 14,500."

Tja.

Who knows, anything can happen I guess.

But from all that I read, the problems are much wider and deeper than can be patched up by more easy money. And I just cannot believe that the Fed would be so corrupt as to act as a 'monetizing agent' for shaky collateral, zB illiquid MBS debt.

Since I like to at least mention how to trade this mess, right now I am looking at this most recent uptick as a chance to: 1) profitably trade short term in and out of a few long positions, especially in technology, and 2) very carefully increase some of my short positions, especially in the financials.

Although given the volatility I have now begun to trade my short positions more too, rather than watch rallies like late last week (which will likely continue in NY today, although I think some people could be surprised by how weak the follow-on may be) erode profits.

So my current feeling is still that it is better to have a bias toward the short side. Although these rallies are also a good chance to make a profit on the long side.

While interesting, even exciting, this market is also a bit stressful.

eh

2:06 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Eh,

i agree with everything you said.

I was surprised that the move on Friday wasn´t much stronger.

If there is no follow up today the bulls will be very disappointing that the shortsqueeze was almost nonexistent

I think that still lots of players needs to deleverage positions and are facing margin calls for some time to come.

2:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I like the the statistics to the returns on his recommendations, buy on his waving arms, short one week after. Mmmm maybe thats what his wife does..

4:44 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

I like this quote

"I can show exact data, which says my picks are much better than the S&P."

Hearing that, I asked if I could see it. Cramer spelled out the e-mail address of someone at TheStreet.com. I spent the following days -- and weeks -- trying to get a response from that person, from Cramer, from CNBC.....

:-)

7:18 AM  

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