Another "Solid" IPO In China.......

I think this kind of number is called "solid" in China.......

Das nennt man nach chinesischen Maßstäben wohl "solide".....

China Shipping Stock Sale Oversubscribed, People Say
Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- China Shipping Container Lines Co., Asia's second-largest container line, attracted 2.6 trillion yuan ($351 billion) worth of orders for its Shanghai stock sale, said three people familiar with the offering.

The Shanghai-based shipping line has said it aims to sell as much as 15.5 billion yuan in stock. The people asked not to be identified before an official announcement.

The sale drew bids for about 170 times the stock on offer, as demand for new shares withstands the worst monthly fall in Shanghai's stock market in at least 12 years. The proceeds will help China Shipping expand its fleet and add routes to compete with larger rival China Cosco Holdings Ltd.

``In the current volatile market, investors prefer new share sales as they are seen as less risky,'' said Roslyn Ji, an analyst at Core Pacific-Yamaichi International Ltd. in Hong Kong.

``Large companies named after `China' are particularly favored.''

China Railway Group Ltd., Asia's biggest construction company, drew 150 times the stock on offer for its 22.4 billion yuan Shanghai share sale last month. PetroChina Co.'s October sale had $441 billion of bids, or about 50 times the stock on offer. The company became the world's largest by market capitalization after the sale.

PetroChina's Value Tops $1 Trillion, Surpassing Exxon

"Froth" is probably the understatement of the week..... This frozen proposal isn´t also helpful to ease the liquidity pressure....

Überhitzung ist wohl inzwischen eine mehr als deutliche Untertreibung....... Diese zurückgenommene Verfügung trägt ebenfall nicht geradezu bei den Liquiditätsdruck zu mindern.....

Thanks to Bespoke

PetroChina's Value Tops $1 Trillion, Surpassing Exxon Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- PetroChina Co. surged past Exxon Mobil Corp. to become the world's first $1 trillion company as investors in China started trading the stock.

PetroChina's Class-A shares almost tripled on their Shanghai debut today, valuing the Beijing-based state-owned oil company at as much as $1.1 trillion, more than Exxon and General Electrical Co. combined.

But beware the big numbers / FT

The mainland A-share float has a free float of about 2 per cent - and such a thin float makes market price a poor guide to intrinsic value. Add to that inbuilt squeeze the weight of institutional money trying to get into the mainland’s largest ever listing, and the tendency to price offerings in China at well below the price that local investors are willing to pay. A huge first day pop was a virtual certainty.

The rally makes PetroChina shares four times more expensive relative to earnings than those of Exxon, whose sales are almost four times higher. China's entire stock market was valued at less than $1.1 trillion before tripling this year and giving the communist nation five of the world's 10 biggest companies.

`A-share prices don't reflect global benchmarks of value,'' said Lorraine Tan, head of equity research at Standard & Poor's Investment Services in Singapore. ``There should be other measures of a company's position, including revenue and profitability. Market cap is not necessarily accurate.''

PetroChina rose as high as 48.62 yuan from the sale price of 16.7 yuan and traded at 42.19 yuan at 1:14 p.m. in Shanghai, giving it a market value of $964 billion, or 55 times earnings.

In Hong Kong, PetroChina fell 6.6 percent to HK$18.30. Exxon is worth $488 billion on the New York Stock Exchange and trades at 13 times earnings.

China's largest oil and gas producer had 20.5 billion barrels of oil and gas reserves in 2006, compared with 22.1 billion for Irving, Texas-based Exxon, data compiled by Bloomberg show. PetroChina has been adding new reserves at an average annual rate of 5 percent for the past three years, a faster pace than Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc, the world's largest oil companies by sales.

The share sale, the world's biggest this year, surpassed the 66.6 billion yuan raised by China Shenhua Energy Co. in September. PetroChina raised 66.8 billion yuan selling 4 billion shares last week as investors applied for more than 3.3 trillion yuan of stock, almost 50 times the amount PetroChina sold.

Record Oil
Those investors were until now prevented from directly buying PetroChina stock, missing out on a 15-fold surge as economic growth turned the nation into the largest oil consumer after the U.S. and as crude prices reached a record $96.24 a barrel in New York.

The CSI 300 Index of shares listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges has increased about 170 percent this year as mainland Chinese investors seek returns on $2.3 trillion of savings, raising investor concerns that the market is too expensive.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. sold its stake in PetroChina this year, reaping an eightfold gain that contributed to a 64 percent increase in third-quarter profit for the Omaha-based company. Berkshire had 2.34 billion shares as of the end of 2006, the largest holding after state-owned China National Petroleum Corp.

Buffett said on Oct. 24 that Chinese share prices have risen too fast.

Gains in PetroChina's shares in Shanghai may have more to do with Chinese investors seeking better returns than the outlook for the company's exploration and production operations, or its refining business, known as downstream, said Larry Grace, an oil analyst at Kim Eng Securities Co. in Hong Kong.

``Production is static with limited upside for the next three to four years,'' Grace said. ``As for the downstream, the price controls and overall regulatory trend limit the company's earnings.''

China controls fuel prices to shield consumers in the world's most-populous nation from accelerating inflation. The policy limits the ability of PetroChina and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. to pass on the burden of higher crude oil costs.
The other Chinese companies that rank among the world's 10 largest by market value are China Petroleum, known as Sinopec, China Mobile Ltd., Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp.

Number Of The Day....."Investor Sentiment"

WOW! Just waking up in Germany and looking at my screen. Asia and especially Honk Kong is up sharply, Gold at $ 793, the Greenback is tanking again, commodities are soaring, yields (of course) almost unchanged, US Futures are roaring higher.....

Was für Wochenstart! Gucke mir wie üblich gerade nach dem Aufstehen mal die Märkte an. Asien und besonders Hong Kong massiv gen Norden, etliche Indizes auf Rekordhöhen, Gold bei knappen 800$, Der US$ weiter im freien Fall, alle Rohstoffe auf dem Weg nach oben, Die Renditen (logischerweise) kaum verändert, US Futures massiv grün......

Fleckenstein

If you think of the return to sanity as a positive development, there's reason to be encouraged by Investors Intelligence's report, which recorded the most lopsided sentiment reading in many years. Last week, bulls stood at 62% and bears at about 19%. For anyone who's been around the stock market for any length of time, that is a clear warning sign.

On top of this i´ve found this chart from Ticker Sense October 22nd Blogger Sentiment Poll

Passend hierzu der October 22nd Blogger Sentiment Poll von Ticker Sense.

I hope you have seen this clip on investor sentiment. One of the best and funniest clips on this topic! One of the most prominent examples how quick the sentiment can change is the meltdown from Jim Cramer. A few days after this he raised his target for the Dow to 14500.....No kidding.....

Ich kann nur hoffen das Ihr diesen Clip zum "Investor Sentiment" schon gesehen habt. Mit Sicherheit einer des treffensten und zugleich lustigsten Beschreibungen zu diesem Thema. Eines der wohl bekanntesten Beispiele wie schnell die Stimmung umschlagen kann ist Jim Cramer der bereits einige Tage nachdem er das Ende der Welt prophezeit sein Kursziel für den DOW auf 14500 erhöht hat. Ein heisser Anwärter auf den Titel "Wendehals des Jahres" :-)

I would like to see a seperate poll for the sentiment in Hong Kong .......

Ich würde zu gerne eine seperate Investorenbefragung für Hong Kong sehen .........

The Hang Seng has now put on more than 11 per cent in the past week, and almost 55 per cent since its August low amid the credit squeeze.

Coal.com ..... / China

Wow! Does anybody need another example that it is never about valuations and it´s all about liquidity. The longer this run continues and the real interest rate for deposits in China is negative the more unlikely the following outcome will be like this........

Was für Fakten! Hier wird einmal mehr bestätigt das es an den Märkte in den wenigsten Fällen um die Bewertung geht. Die Liquidität dominiert fast immer das Geschehen. Je länger dieser Lauf weitergeht und die Regierung immer noch negative Sparzinsen zuläßt desto unwahrscheinlicher wird wohl folgendes Motto.......

China Shenhua Energy Shares Surge in Shanghai Debut
Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China Shenhua Energy Co., the nation's biggest coal producer, almost doubled on its first day of trading in Shanghai after investors applied for a record 2.66 trillion yuan ($354 billion) of stock.

Shenhua rose as much as 91 percent after the Beijing-based company raised 66.6 billion yuan in the world's biggest share sale this year. Investors ordered 40 times the stock on offer, drawn by first-day trading gains for Chinese companies that averaged 269 percent in the past three months.

The surge gives the coal producer a market capitalization of $173 billion, surpassing Cia. Vale do Rio Doce as the world's second-biggest mining company. Shenhua will use the proceeds to buy mines and expand output to meet demand in the world's fastest-growing major economy, where coal prices have jumped to a record.

Thanks to Bespoke

The Beijing-based company sold 66.6 billion yuan of shares at 36.99 yuan apiece, a 19 percent discount to the closing price of its Hong Kong-listed stock yesterday.

Debut Gains
Shenhua's Shanghai shares are trading at 65 times estimated earnings. China Coal Energy Co., the nation's second-biggest coal producer, is trading in Hong Kong at 52 times last year earnings. Shenhua's Hong Kong shares are trading at a ratio of 42, less than the 54 times average for China's CSI 300 Index, the world's best-performing this year.

Shenhua sold 1.8 billion yuan-denominated shares. The sale surpassed the $8 billion raised by Russia's VTB Group in May. The amount is also a record for a domestic stock offering, exceeding the 58 billion yuan raised by China Construction Bank. .....

China, the largest miner and consumer of coal, became a net importer of the fuel for the first time in January, ending centuries of self-sufficiency and boosting benchmark prices of the fuel at home and at Australia's Newcastle Port to records in August. China burns coal to generate 78 percent of its electricity.

>For a more bullish view on the Chinese Economy (not the stock market) read How fit is the panda? from the Economist. Once in a month i need to post something positive excluding gold....... :-)

> Für einen eher positiven Ausblick für China´s Wirtschaft (nicht den Aktienmarkt) empfiehlt sich How fit is the panda? vom Economist. Ich muß ja zumindest einmal monatlich etwas bullishes ausserhalb von Gold posten...... :-)

Number Of The Day....China IPO´s

China.com.....? Click here for more posts on the most fascinating market and the often "stretched" valuations.......Would be interesting to know how much margin buying is goin on there........

China.com.....? Klickt bitte hier um mehr Details zu dem wohl momentan interessantesten Markt weltweit zu erhalten. Ich würde zu gerne wissen in welchem Maße kreditfinanzierte Aktienkäufe in China genutzt werden.

The last six IPOs in China surged by an average 250% on their first day of trading.

China Construction Bank shares soar

China Construction Bank, which has traded in Hong Kong since October 2005, rose as much as 40% on its first day of trading in Shanghai in the world’s second-largest share sale this year

The stock traded 34% higher by mid-morning at 8.67 yuan, giving the Beijing-based bank a value of $218bn. Chinese investors, undeterred by high valuations for traded companies, are clamoring for IPOs as returns on bank savings lag the nation’s inflation rate.

Shenhua Draws Record Orders for Shanghai Share Sale, People Say

China Shenhua Energy Co., the nation's largest coal producer, attracted a record of more than 2.6 trillion yuan ($350 billion) in orders for its Shanghai share sale, said two people with direct knowledge of the transaction.

Shenhua drew 1.9 trillion yuan from institutional investors and more than 700 billion yuan from individuals seeking the stock, the people said, citing preliminary tallies and asking not to be identified before an official announcement. Beijing-based Shenhua will sell as many as 1.8 billion shares at between 34.99 yuan and 36.99 each, it said Sept. 23.

Chinese investors, undeterred by the world's highest valuations for traded companies, are rushing to buy into a stock market that has almost tripled in size this year as returns on bank savings lag behind inflation.

China at 45 Times Earnings Fed by `Herd Mentality,' Government

As is wrote yesterday this feels more and more like a deja vu. Herd mentality at its best.....

Wie bereits gestern bemerkt erinnert das gnaze doch immer mehr an die wilden "Neuer Markt/Nasdag Zeiten". Der Begriff "Herdentreib" umschreibt das ganze ziemlich gut.

Aspiration and envy are key emotions driving China's stocks boom as investors ignore warnings of a growing bubble to pursue quick riches and gain respect from friends and neighbors. Rapid recoveries from two government-triggered sell-offs this year have deepened investors' belief that the market is immune to a crash. ....

Unlike business people who amass wealth through political connections and corruption, successful stock traders are respected for winning on their own merits, Shi says. ....

Such is China's investing frenzy that an average of 300,000 stock-trading accounts have been opened every day since April, according to China Securities Depository & Clearing Corp. Trading by individual investors accounts for about 60 percent of market volume, estimates the Shanghai-based brokerage Guotai Junan Securities Co. In the U.S., individuals account for only 5 percent of trading as institutional investors dominate.

Soup Shop Dream
Since a four-year bear market ended in the third quarter of 2005, the CSI 300 has quadrupled. While the index fell as much as 16 percent the week of May 30, after the government tripled a share-trading tax, all the losses were recouped by the close of trading June 18. The index has fallen 1.4 percent since then because of concerns the central bank would raise interest rates.
At Shenyin & Wanguo Securities, human-resources consultant Guan Fengxian checks her stocks at one of the terminals small investors line up to use.

Nearby is a chef from the adjoining restaurant and the building's cleaning lady. Guan, 30, says her dream is to make enough money to open a soup shop with two friends -- and quit her job.

Guan opened her trading account in early June, during the market sell-off. She bought 1,000 shares in Hunan Valin Steel Tube & Wire for about 7 yuan apiece; they have risen to 9.18 yuan. Guan says she's waiting to plow an additional 160,000 yuan, most of her savings, into the market.

``I'm not afraid,'' says Guan, tightening her clutch on a pink Mickey Mouse wallet. ``Our economy is doing so well; nothing could possibly go wrong, right?''

Foreign Vultures
Such confidence defies warnings from former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing who last month said shares were too expensive.

Xu says he ignores such comments from abroad.

``These foreign interests want to get in on the action themselves but can't because the market has risen too much,'' he says. ``That's why they are talking down the market, so they can swoop in and pick up some cheap stocks.''

Government support for the stock market is guaranteed because it is selling state-owned shares to pay for future pension obligations and education programs, Xu says.

``If we take a beating in the stock market, the government takes a beating too,'' he says. ``There's no reason the government would want to smash the stock market.'' ....

Chinese shares are among the most expensive in the world, trading at about 45 times reported earnings. By comparison, shares trade for an average of 17 times earnings on the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong and 18 times on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the U.S.

Only Chinese nationals are allowed to buy yuan-denominated shares traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, except for 52 authorized foreign money managers that are allowed to invest a combined $10 billion in Chinese stocks, a fraction of the nation's $2.27 trillion market capitalization.

``Herd mentality prevails in Chinese society,'' Shi says. ``If they see everyone around them -- neighbors, friends and colleagues -- trading stocks, they would want to follow.''

Ironically, government-triggered market declines may provide the impetus for future surges.

Chastened by Declines
``With each plunge, investors become more immune to market volatility,'' says Yao Maogong, chief trader at Shanghai Securities Co. ``Chinese investors don't pay much attention to ratios; as long as the market trends up, they think it's safe.''

Some Chinese investors are chastened by the recent sell-off. Retired school teacher Wu had ``tens of thousands'' wiped off her portfolio. While she hasn't sold stocks, Wu has stopped buying and talks gravely of the stock-market plunge in 2001 that cut the value of her holdings in half.

Xu says: ``There's no way the government would let the stock market crash.''

> Today the stock market in cghina tanked over 4%.....Good opportunity for Xu to buy the dip......

> Heute ist der Markt n China über 4% eingebrochen.......Also gute Nachkaufgelegenheiten für Xu und co.....

What Bubble? China's Analysts More Bullish Than Ever

This feels more and more like a deja vu.....But with so much liquidity tied to the yuan this can easily go on for much longer than we might think. From a fundamental and investor sentiment point of view this market looks as a beautiful short. But with all the liquidity it is way too dangerous.

Hat außer mir noch jemand das gefühl eines Deja Vu´s....? Dank der unfassbaren Liquidität die an den Yuan gekoppelt ist kann das noch ne ganze Weile anhalten. Fundamental und auch von der aktuellen pychologischen Sichtweise riecht das ganze nach einem wunderbaren Shortkandidaten. Dank der irren Liquidität ist das Ganze aber zu gefährlich.

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Zhang Shibao covers 12 Chinese stocks and recommends investors buy all of them, even after they've more than tripled on average in the past year.

``We are still in the middle of the bull market and the uptrend is irreversible,'' said Zhang, a steel analyst at China Merchants Securities Co. in Shenzhen.

Analysts who cover Chinese companies, such as Zhang, are the most bullish they've been at any time in the past 10 years. Total buy calls on mainland shares from local and foreign analysts rose to 67.4 percent of all ratings this month, the highest since Bloomberg began collating the data a decade ago. The bullishness comes as the government is trying to cool a rally that's made shares there the most expensive in Asia.
> Time for http://www.wallstreetfollies.com/ to start a Chinese site

Zhang has eight ``strong buy'' and four ``buy'' recommendations on the dozen iron and steel stocks he covers. They have gained an average 218 percent over the past 12 months and are up 97 percent this year, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Shares of Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co., China's biggest maker of the corrosion-resistant metal, have leapt 355 percent over the past year, while Wuhan Iron & Steel Co., the nation's third-biggest steelmaker by market value, have almost quadrupled. Nine of 10 analysts who cover Shanxi Tiagang rate it a buy, while 10 of 18 recommend buying Wuhan Iron & Steel, according to Bloomberg data. Zhang has ``strong buy'' ratings on both stocks.

CHINA produced 34% of the world's steel in 2006, while consuming only 30.9% of it

> Should be great news for margins and stock prices when supply is exceeding demand.....

> Müssen wirklich tolle perspektiven sein wenn das Angebot neurdings die Nachfrage übersteigt.....

Sell calls make up 10.3 percent of all ratings, the lowest proportion on record, and hold ratings comprise 22.2 percent of the 12,301 recommendations on Chinese stocks tracked by Bloomberg.

`Momentum and Liquidity'
Ping Jingwei, an analyst at Shanghai Securities Co., has buy recommendations on all seven stocks he covers, betting the inflow of new investors into the market will trump the government's efforts to cool it.

``Many of the stocks are above fair value in my opinion, but I don't put out a sell call because the market is now being carried along by momentum and liquidity,'' he said. ``I may think it's worth $10 but if it's now $15 and looks set to rise further, why would I put out a sell call? What if it keeps gaining? I'd look bad and it wouldn't look good on my appraisal.''

Avoiding Controversy
Guangzhou Donghua Enterprise Co., a Guangzhou-based residential property developer, has risen 189 percent this year. Ping put out a ``buy'' recommendation on March 15. Shanghai Shimao Co., a real-estate developer that has climbed 361 percent in 2007, earned a ``buy'' call from Ping on Jan. 18.

``I haven't encountered any pressure from my company so far not to put out sell calls, but I think there will be if I do,'' said Ping, who has been a securities analyst for two years after getting his Master's Degree in Finance from Shanghai's Fudan University. ``I avoid that by skipping companies that are not worth a buy. Instead of putting out a negative report, I'll just not put out one at all.''


U.S. Bears
By contrast, analysts in the U.S. have never been so bearish. Buy ratings fell below holds as a percentage of total U.S. stock picks for the first time ever in February, and now trail 45.3 percent to 47.8 percent, according to Bloomberg data.

China doesn't allow investors to sell shares they don't own and buy them back later, a practice known as short selling. That leaves brokers more reliant on buyers for commissions.

History's Big Bubbles " How does China's bubble compare with previous financial manias?" / Economist

Great take on Greenspan! Probably one of the most overrated people out there. On the other hand i find it perverse to suggest that Chinese stocks have more room to run on the basis that the pe is only 45!

Klasse Kommentar zu Greenspan. Der Typ ist wohl einer der am meisten überschätzten Personen der Finanzgeschichte. Ein Teil seines Erbes wird ja nun gerade in Form der Immobilienkrise sichtbar. Auf der anderen Seite ist es befremdlich hier zu suggerieren/unterstellen das die chinesischen Aktien aufgrund eines verglichen mit Nasdag und Nikkei zu bubblezeiten üblichen KGV´s von 100 noch luft hätten.

ALAN GREENSPAN, the former chairman of America's Federal Reserve, always insisted when in office that it was extremely hard to spot bubbles before they had actually burst. This, he said, is one reason why policymakers should never try to prick them. Today, however, he seems to have no doubts that China's stockmarket is bubbling over. He recently declared that Chinese share prices were “clearly unsustainable”, with a risk of a “dramatic contraction”.

It is curious that China's bubble seems so blindingly obvious to Mr Greenspan and so many other Americans who remained in denial about their own dotcom mania right to the end. For according to The Economist's “Bubble guide” (see chart), China's recent share-price boom is still relatively modest compared with the giants of history. The chart plots the performance of Chinese share prices over the past five years against the three great bubbles of the 20th century: Wall Street in the 1920s, Japan in the 1980s and America's NASDAQ in the 1990s. The NASDAQ composite index saw a gain of more than 500% from 1995 to early 2000. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped by 300% from 1984 to 1989. The Shanghai A-share index, having recovered most of its plunge in late May, shows a gain of about only 160% over the past five years.
Moreover, Chinese A-shares now have an average price-earnings (p/e) ratio of around 45. At their peaks, the average p/e ratio of the Nikkei 225 in 1989 and the NASDAQ at the start of 2000 were both well over 100. This suggests that Chinese share prices could have much further to climb before the bubble bursts—unless China's policymakers are braver than Mr Greenspan and take bolder action to dampen the market now.


Compare this to Stories from the eye of the storm in china....

Vergleicht das mit Berichten aus dem Auge des Sturms in China.....

I try to translate as good as possible

The stock market fever has taken taken over China. How big the euphoria really is witnessed one top asset manager from Fortis Investments. A new Driver was greeting him at his arrival at the Beijing Airport

The old driver just quit his job to spend more time on his stock trades.

On top of this he wondered at a capitals market conference why the majority of the visitors were watching at their laptops all the time. They all were online so they were always connected to their brokerage accounts and always on top of the stock market action.

China ist im Börsenfieber. Wie groß die Aktieneuphorie wirklich ist, erfuhr jetzt William de Vijlder, Chef-Anlagestratege von Fortis Investments. Bei seiner Ankunft auf dem Flughafen von Peking begrüßte ihn ein neuer Chauffeur.

Der alte hatte gerade gekündigt, um mehr Zeit für Börsengeschäfte zu haben. Der Banker erfuhr dann, dass viele Chinesen inzwischen nachts vor den Toren der Banken schlafen, um morgens rechtzeitig da zu sein, um eines der limitierten Wertpapierdepots zu eröffnen. Auf einer Kapitalmarktkonferenz schließlich wunderte sich de Viljder über die immense Zahl von Zuhörern, die nebenbei ihren Laptop aufgeklappt hatte.

Es waren keine Journalisten. Auf fast allen Bildschirmen flimmerten Kursinformationen von der Börse. An einem heißen Markt will eben niemand etwas verpassen.

How Overvalued Is China ?

i don´t know any Chinese company enough to judge them on a fundamental basis but when you read stories with a pe in the triple digit you should get nervous...especially when it is a meat company and just over the (stock) border you can buy a similar company for a steep discount........ but as long as the music plays........

ich kenne nicht eine chinesische aktie um mir fundamental ein urteil erlauben zu können. aber immer wenn ich geschichten mit einer dreistelligen kgv lese werde ich hellhörig ...das gilt besonders wenn es sich um einen fleischproduzenten handelt und vergleichbare werte die an einer anderen börse gelistet sind für einen bruchteil erwerben kann.....aber solange die musik noch spielt.....

June 11 (Bloomberg) -- What's a Chinese meat producer really worth?

On the mainland, investors pay 147 times earnings to own Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei) Co. Hong Kong-listed China Yurun Food Group Ltd. trades at 26.7 times profit. And in Singapore, People's Food Holdings Ltd. is valued at 11.7 times earnings.

``There is not that big a difference in their businesses, so there shouldn't be such a difference in their prospects and valuations,'' says Greg Lesko, who helps manage $900 million at New York-based hedge fund Deltec Asset Management.

Trading restrictions are partly responsible for the variations. That has sparked a search for more rational price-to- earnings valuations in Chinese equities. To some investors, even Hong Kong is looking overvalued. Increasingly, they are finding the most sensible multiples in one market: Singapore. .....

China's benchmark CSI 300 Index would need to fall as much as 54 percent to come in line with the price-to-earnings ratio of Hong Kong's Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks shares of 41 mainland companies listed in the city. The CSI 300 would have to drop 65 percent to match the average multiple for Chinese shares traded in Singapore........
`I've Made Mistakes'
Tan Jiong, 33, a security guard in Shanghai's Lujiazui financial district, invested 90,000 yuan ($11,737), equivalent to about half of his savings, in local stocks in March. He said he was ``extremely upset'' by the government's decision to triple the stamp duty but decided to maintain his holdings.

``To sell now would be admitting I've made mistakes, which I can't reconcile myself to,'' Tan said. .......

>this attitude could be an expensive one.......

>diese einstellung könnte am ende teuer werden......

China down 6% / China Triples the Tax on Stock Trades

why did it take so long to act seriously......... now the damage is already done......interesiting to see how the markets will follow up tomorrow......one point at the day 200 from 300 stocks of the csi 300 were limit down (10%)!

warum hat das ganze so lange gedauert......nun ist der schaden angerichtet....entscheidend wird sein wie der morgige tag verläuft...im laufe des heutigen handels waren zeitweise 200 der 300 aktien im csi 300 limit down (10%)!

HONG KONG, Wednesday, May 30 — In an abrupt reversal, China’s finance ministry announced early Wednesday morning that it would triple the tax on stock trades, a move aimed at braking what many business executives and economists inside and outside China now see as a stock market bubble.

Just seven days ago, the finance ministry and the State Administration of Taxation took the unusual step of publicly denying that they had any plans to change the tax on stock trading.

>stocks gave risen another 7 percent during this period

>in diesem zeitraum sind die aktien weitere 7% gestiegen

But the finance ministry reversed itself with a statement on its Web site early Wednesday morning noting that increased had been ordered by the State Council, the cabinet of the Chinese government.

By raising the tax, the government now runs the risk of being blamed by the Chinese public if it sets off a stock market rout. A composite index of yuan-denominated A shares traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen plunged 6.3 percent at the opening on Wednesday


Millions of citizens have invested their savings in a stock market that has nearly quadrupled since the start of last year.

The Chinese government has long used changes in the stock trading tax to influence share prices, raising or lowering the tax at least six times in recent years. Investors have watched the level of the tax carefully as an indication of the government’s position.

China started to levy stamp duty in 1990, and initially set the rate at 0.6 percent. This is the eighth time the government has adjusted the rate of the tax.

The last time the government raised the tax was on May 10, 1997, when it was lifted to 0.5 percent from 0.3 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.3 percent after the announcement.

``The stamp tax is the latest gesture by the Chinese government to warn investors,'' said Phil Chen, who manages $154 million at Grand Cathay Securities Investment Trust Co. in Taipei.


``The trouble is, Chinese investors probably won't care if a few breadcrumbs are dropped in the transaction as they have such extraordinary returns on their investments

The market had rallied sharply for the last week as investors interpreted last week’s decision to leave the tax unchanged as a sign that the government would let the market set its own course.

The finance ministry is tripling the stamp tax on stock trading to 0.3 percent, from 0.1 percent, effective Wednesday....

China climbing to new highs / party on......

another day another record...... this performance reminds me more and more of the final stages of the nasdaq bubble..... i never could imagine that i would witness such an effort twice within 8 years....fascinating times.... and i´m proud that i havn´t tried to short this madness......thanks in part to the limited products available :-)

jeder tag ein neuer meilenstein....diese entwicklung erinnert mich immer mehr an die letzten zuckungen des nasdag 1999/2000...ich hätte mir nicht träumen lassen das ich etwas ähnlichens binnen 8 jahren ein zweites mal erleben kann.....ist an spannung kaum zu überbieten....bin ehrlich stolz das ich noch nicht der versuchung erlegen bin hier was auf der short seite zu probieren.....hängt wohl auch mit der schwierigkeit zusammen das die produkmöglichkeit hier noch sehr eingeschränkt sind :-)

May 28 (Bloomberg) -- China's CSI 300 Index rose above 4000 for the first time, driven by a surge in new investors who are ignoring warnings of a bubble to enter a market that's doubled this year.

China International Marine Containers Co. and Tsingtao Brewery Co. were among 11 stocks to rise by the 10 percent daily limit on the 298 member index. Jiangxi Copper Co. climbed after the price of the metal gained by the daily cap in Shanghai.

``There is lots of liquidity flowing into the market,'' said Fan Dizhao, who helps manage about $1.8 billion at Guotai Asset Management Co. in Shanghai. ``Even fund mangers dare not sell their shares at this stage, as no one knows when the rally will be over.''

The nation's Ministry of Education warned students not to get involved in stock trading because they may be unable to bear their losses if the investments turn sour, the official Xinhua News Agency reported today.

The benchmark CSI 300 climbed 87.33, or 2.2 percent, to 4072.58 at the close. Investors opened more than 300,000 accounts a day last week, even as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan called the rally unsustainable and said the market may undergo a ``dramatic contraction''.

China Petroleum, Asia's biggest oil refiner, also known as Sinopec, jumped 0.67 yuan, or 5.4 percent, to 13.07. China International Marine, the world's largest maker of freight containers, gained 3.17 yuan, or 10 percent, to 34.82. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., China's biggest steelmaker, climbed 0.42 yuan, or 3.3 percent, to 13.12.

New Accounts
Households are shifting funds into the stock market, seeking better returns than they can get on their bank deposits. The central bank's benchmark one-year deposit rate, a ceiling for deposit rates commercial banks can offer, is 3.06 percent, little more than the nation's 3 percent inflation rate. The CSI 300 has risen 206 percent in the past year.

nasdaq....

Investors opened 362,719 accounts at brokerages on May 24, the fifth straight day the tally has exceeded 300,000, according to figures on the China Depository & Clearing Corp.'s Web site. So far this year, 20.9 million accounts have been opened, four times the amount in 2006, the clearing house's data shows.

``This kind of bubble is not driven by fundamentals. It's driven by liquidity,'' said Agnes Deng, who helps manage $3.5 billion at Standard Life Investments Asia in Hong Kong.

>what a statement.........if it was driven by fundamentals it wouldn´t be a bubble.....

>was für eine aussage.....wenn etwas durch fundamentales gerechtfertigt ist kann es wohl kaum eine blase sein...

The CSI 300 is now valued at 46 times earnings, making the mainland market the most expensive in the Asia-Pacific region.

Risk Declaration
Greenspan last week joined central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Asia's wealthiest man Li Ka-shing in warning of a bubble on China's stock market. The index fell 0.5 percent the day after Greenspan's comment. It resumed its gains the next day, closing 1.7 percent higher.

The CSI 300, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, has climbed 14 percent since May 6, when the central bank's Zhou said he was concerned about stock valuations. It also rose to a record after billionaire Li on May 17 said the market ``must be a bubble.''

The country's stock regulator last week ordered brokerages to make investors sign a declaration that they are aware of the risks when opening stock-trading accounts.

>hasn´t worked in germany and the rest of the world in 1999...helpless effort....maybe they should try/use a more drastical warning like this one..... :-)

>das hat bei uns und im rest der welt keinerlei auswirkungen gehabt...hilfloser versuch...evtl. sollten etwas drastische worte von seiten der offiziellen gewählt werden...... :-)

The pace of gains on the stock market has increased speculation that the government will take cooling measures.

``Some investors simply keep buying shares, since there were no crackdown measures by regulators,'' said Fan at Guotai Asset Management. .....

China Life Insurance Co., the nation's biggest insurer, gained 1.17 yuan, or 3 percent, to 40.20. Ping An Insurance (Group) Co., the second biggest, rose 2.56 yuan, or 4.1 percent, to 64.48.
Insurance companies have been approved in principal to invest in real estate in China, .... There are no policy restrictions regarding real estate investment by insurance companies, it said.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China's stock exchanges, gained 2.2 percent to 4272.11. The Shenzhen Composite Index, which covers the smaller one, added 2.4 percent to 1264.05.