Sunday, October 28, 2007

Number Of The Day....."Investor Sentiment"

WOW! Just waking up in Germany and looking at my screen. Asia and especially Honk Kong is up sharply, Gold at $ 793, the Greenback is tanking again, commodities are soaring, yields (of course) almost unchanged, US Futures are roaring higher.....

Was für Wochenstart! Gucke mir wie üblich gerade nach dem Aufstehen mal die Märkte an. Asien und besonders Hong Kong massiv gen Norden, etliche Indizes auf Rekordhöhen, Gold bei knappen 800$, Der US$ weiter im freien Fall, alle Rohstoffe auf dem Weg nach oben, Die Renditen (logischerweise) kaum verändert, US Futures massiv grün......


If you think of the return to sanity as a positive development, there's reason to be encouraged by Investors Intelligence's report, which recorded the most lopsided sentiment reading in many years. Last week, bulls stood at 62% and bears at about 19%. For anyone who's been around the stock market for any length of time, that is a clear warning sign.

On top of this i´ve found this chart from Ticker Sense October 22nd Blogger Sentiment Poll

Passend hierzu der October 22nd Blogger Sentiment Poll von Ticker Sense.

I hope you have seen this clip on investor sentiment. One of the best and funniest clips on this topic! One of the most prominent examples how quick the sentiment can change is the meltdown from Jim Cramer. A few days after this he raised his target for the Dow to 14500.....No kidding.....

Ich kann nur hoffen das Ihr diesen Clip zum "Investor Sentiment" schon gesehen habt. Mit Sicherheit einer des treffensten und zugleich lustigsten Beschreibungen zu diesem Thema. Eines der wohl bekanntesten Beispiele wie schnell die Stimmung umschlagen kann ist Jim Cramer der bereits einige Tage nachdem er das Ende der Welt prophezeit sein Kursziel für den DOW auf 14500 erhöht hat. Ein heisser Anwärter auf den Titel "Wendehals des Jahres" :-)

I would like to see a seperate poll for the sentiment in Hong Kong .......

Ich würde zu gerne eine seperate Investorenbefragung für Hong Kong sehen .........

The Hang Seng has now put on more than 11 per cent in the past week, and almost 55 per cent since its August low amid the credit squeeze.

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Blogger jmf said...

UBS Says U.S. Housing Exposure May Lead to More Writedowns

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Europe's largest bank by assets, said that difficulties in the U.S. housing market may lead to further writedowns.

The Zurich-based bank, which reports its third-quarter earnings tomorrow, said that today it's still exposed to ``further deterioration in the U.S. housing and mortgage markets as well as rating downgrades'' on mortgage-related securities. UBS also confirmed it will report a group loss of between 600 million Swiss francs ($516 million) and 800 francs in an e-mailed statement.

Crude Oil Rises to Record Above $93 as Mexico Shuts Production

Asian Stocks Rise; Nissan Motor, Mitsubishi UFJ Lead Advance

China's Yuan Rises Most Since Dollar Link Ended in July 2005

11:40 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Xstrata in $3bn bid for bid for Jubilee

Xstrata, the mining group, has made a recommended A$3.1bn (US$2.9bn) cash takeover offer for Australia’s Jubilee Mines as part of efforts to expand its global supplies of nickel. The UK-listed group’s bid is the latest in the mining sector where many commodities are trading near record highs on the back of increased demand from China and other fast-growing countries. Xstrata, one of the world’s biggest nickel producers, has offered A$23 for each Jubilee share, a 35 per cent premium to the Friday close of A$17.10.

11:49 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

U.K. Home Prices Fall for First Time in 2 Years, Led by London

1:30 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Excellent stuff via iTulip

Ten Facts about the Real Estate market you need to know

1:42 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

A possible trigger for a change in sentiment

via Sudden Debt

Upcoming FOMC Meeting

2:22 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Hang Seng powers up - next stop 40k?

The Hang Seng has now put on more than 11 per cent in the past week, and almost 55 per cent since its August low amid the credit squeeze.

3:30 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Roubini via FT

“A miracle is needed to avoid recession”

6:21 AM  
Blogger Ben Bittrolff said...

I don't know what to make of the spike in the High of the Fed Funds rate to 15% on 10/25/07. Any ideas? Relevant? Irrelevant?



7:19 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Ben,

good catch.

This must be a misprint.

7:22 AM  
Blogger Yogi said...

Either it's a bad print, or else some U.S. bank needed funds badly, and was unwilling (or unable) to go the the discount window.

There's a discussion on the Market Ticker blog on Sunday under the title "Impending Credit Market Supercriticality?"

8:37 AM  
Blogger Yogi said...

OTOH Hellasious thinks it was probably only a small $ amount, because it didn't move the weighted average effective Fed Funds rate very much.

8:55 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Thanks Yogi

8:57 AM  
Blogger Ben Bittrolff said...

Small amount or not... I don't like it. (Especially if it happens again soon.)

9:11 AM  
Blogger said... blog.

3:43 AM  

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