Friday, September 29, 2006

denial / hope/ brainwashed Most expect their home's value to rise in next few years

wow. diese umfrage ist erst zwei wochen alt. hat also schon das erste laue lüftchen des downturns mitberücksichtigt. bin ehrlich geschockt! wenn jetzt immer nich so viele leute denken das ihre immobilienwerte weiter steigen dann gut nacht...... (man beachte nur den 100 jährigen chart von shiller)

Most expect their home's value to rise in next few years

The national housing data may suggest a gloomy residential real estate market but a new survey shows many homeowners remain upbeat, at least concerning their own homes

The second annual RBC Capital Markets Consumer Survey, released Wednesday, found that 46% of all homeowners still expect at least a 5% annual increase in their home values over the next few years. Nearly 60% of homeowners expected the same in last year's survey.

The national survey was conducted online between Sept. 7 and 15; 1,003 people participated.

About 76% of homeowners expect the value of their homes to increase at some rate over the next few years. Thirty percent expect their home to increase in value between 5% and 10% annually during the next few years and 16% expect their home to go up by 10% or more.

According to the survey, about 19% expect their home values will stay the same; only 6% said their home value probably decrease over the next few years.

"While real estate expectations are lower than they were last year, consumers still seem optimistic despite what we are seeing in the marketplace," Scot Ciccarelli, managing director and equity research analyst for RBC Capital Markets, said in a news release

Although about 40% of participants in the RBC survey acknowledged that home prices were coming down in their area, 35% said prices were going up. Twenty-five percent said prices have leveled out.

More than 80% of homeowners surveyed said they have at least $50,000 of equity built up in their homes, and fewer than one in 10 participants worry that their mortgage might exceed the value of their homes if housing prices declined during the coming years. (bei der entwicklung kein wunder/no wonder)

The survey also indicated 25% of homeowners have already paid off their mortgage, a finding surprising to Ciccarelli.

"While it's true that it may be easier to pay off a mortgage in Selinsgrove, Pa., than it is in New York City, we were still very surprised that the number was so high," he said. "This goes against the general belief that most Americans are leveraged to the hilt."

About 13% said they had variable-rate or interest-only mortgages and nearly 40% of participants with those products are concerned about their ability to meet higher payments.

Thirteen percent haven't considered the possible consequences of the mortgage products when their rates reset.

Effect on consumer spending and saving

The results also hinted that a certain wealth effect had been at work over the past three years for some homeowners.

Seventy percent said their home had increased in value by 10% or more over the past three years and nearly 29% said their values had increased by 25% or more. Of those whose homes achieved the greater appreciation level, six out of 10 of agreed that their rising home value had given them some spending leeway.

"Declining real estate values could eventually impact consumer spending as people don't feel as wealthy as they used to and become less likely to borrow against the equity they have built up in their homes," Ciccarelli said.

The survey also found:

Those making more than $100,000 were three times as likely to regularly save money as those who earned less than $50,000. Nearly half of those in the lower income bracket said they were living paycheck to paycheck or had to dip into their savings.

Half of those surveyed don't expect to change their spending habits over the next year. Those who expected to rein in their spending often weren't planning on tightening their budgets when it came to home improvements and automobile costs.

Geopolitical tensions and terrorism topped consumers' worry list, followed by gas prices, rising medical bills, employment concerns and interest rates



spanien / spain bubble world tour

nur irland hat in europa ne größere blase zu bieten. denke spanien ist kanpp vor england auf dem zweiten platz. rest der bubble world tour

Real Estate Slowdown in Spain May Cut Sales of `Covered' Bonds


Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of bonds backed by home mortgages in Spain may drop for the first time in five years as prices of apartments in Madrid and villas on the Costa del Sol rise at the slowest pace since 2001.

Banks in Europe's fifth-largest economy probably will reduce sales of bonds to finance mortgages by 23 percent next year to 50 billion euros ($63 billion

The banks raised 59 billion euros this year with so-called covered bonds, debt backed by mortgages and guaranteed by the seller, almost as much as in all of 2005 and the most in Europe

Mortgage lending fell for three of the past four months as borrowing costs for home buyers rose to the highest since 2003, the Spanish Mortgage Association said.

Yield Premium

Investors demand 4 to 5 basis points in extra yield to purchase Spanish mortgage debt rather than similar securities in Germany, partly because of the higher amount being sold, said Ted Packmohr, a credit analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. The covered market in Spain, which started in 1998, now has 190 billion euros of bonds.

Holders of Madrid-based Banco Popular Espanol SA's 2.5 billion euros of 3 percent covered notes due in 2012 lost 0.5 percent so far this year, Citigroup Inc. prices show. That compares with a 0.1 percent loss on similar securities sold by Munich-based Muenchener Hypothekenbank AG. Moody's Investors Service rates both notes Aaa.

The premium on Spanish covered bonds compared with similar- maturity government debt rose 10 basis points to 29 basis points this year, according to the International Index Company's iBoxx indexes. In Germany, spreads widened by 2 basis points to 17 basis points.

Housing Bubble

Home prices will increase 4.5 percent next year, down from an annual 10.8 percent in the second quarter of this year, according to Madrid-based Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Spain's second-biggest bank.

The last time home values rose more slowly was in 2001, when they gained 8.8 percent.

``In Spain we've had bubble-like conditions for some time,'' said Vishal Pathak, an interest rate strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London. ``If you get reduced volumes of supply, that will help'' bond performance, he said.

Covered bonds typically get AAA ratings by requiring borrowers to set aside assets that can be sold to ensure repayment. (that is the main difference from an mbs and wm uses this structure for their european issuance, das ist der unterschied zu den mbs in den usa.)

Better Than U.S.

Spain's slowdown is nowhere near the slump in the U.S. housing market

The average lending rate for mortgage loans for periods of more than three years has risen to 4.23 percent, the highest since 4.25 percent in January 2003, according to Spanish Mortgage Association data. The rate has risen from 3.19 percent in August, 2005, the lowest in at least 15 years. (this is a consequence from the ecb that sets the rate for whole europe. a independent bank of spain would have raised the rate to at leat 5% or higher in the past years. same in ireland etc., folge der einheitlichen zinspolitik der ezb. ne unabhängige notenbank von spanien hätte die zinsen längst auf 5% plus x anheben müssen. gleiches gild für irland usw)

Holiday Homes

Declining purchases of second homes by U.K. and German citizens is causing the slowdown in Spain. Foreigners reduced their investments in Spain by 21 percent last year to about 400 million euros a month

Holiday homes account for about 30 percent of residential properties being built in Spain, according to DCM Securities, a London-based broker that finances property development. Half the holiday homes are for foreigners, with U.K. residents making up 52 percent of overseas sales, DCM's data show.

``The Spanish market definitely can't go at the speed we've seen in recent years,'' said Max Beinhofer, who helps manage the equivalent of $15 billion of covered bonds at Deutsche Asset Management in Frankfurt.


Die US-Dividendenhoffnungen sind kühn

Die US-Dividendenhoffnungen sind kühn (
Studie der Aktienstrategen von Goldman Sachs

Sie gehen davon aus, dass die Dividende je Aktie im S&P 500, die zwischen 1992 und 2005 von 12,38 auf 22,22 $ gestiegen ist, zwischen 2006 und 2016 von 24,69 auf 55,01 $ zulegen wird.

Der durchschnittliche Zuwachs würde also von 4,6 Prozent auf gut 8,3 Prozent hochschnellen.
Vordergründig scheint das angesichts der niedrigen derzeitigen Ausschüttungsquote von rund 30 Prozent locker drin zu sein. Aber nach den Projektionen von Goldman würde die Ausschüttungsquote selbst 2015 gerade mal auf 32,5 Prozent zunehmen. Der Kniff ist, dass der US-Broker bis 2008 überdurchschnittliche, ab 2009 durchschnittliche Gewinnzuwächse je Aktie erwartet.

Und jetzt kommt es. Als durchschnittliches Gewinnwachstum je Aktie definiert Goldman den mittleren Zuwachs im S&P seit 1943. Und der beträgt 6,7 Prozent - nominal. Allerdings sind die Konsumentenpreise seit 1947 (bis dahin reicht der aktuelle Preisindex zurück) im Mittel um 3,85 Prozent gestiegen. Eine derartig hohe Geldentwertung wollen wir uns für die Zukunft doch lieber nicht erhoffen. Real, also nach Abzug der Inflation, hat der Gewinn je Aktie demnach im Durchschnitt gerade mal um knapp 2,9 Prozent zugelegt. Die gegenwärtigen langfristigen Inflationserwartungen von rund 2,35 Prozent hinzuaddiert, ergäbe sich ein nominales Trendgewinnwachstum von gut 5,2 Prozent. Damit kalkuliert, errechnete sich bei der von Goldman unterstellten Dividendenprojektion für 2016 schon eine GAAP-Ausschüttungsquote von fast zwei Fünfteln.

Aber das ist nicht alles. Laut Goldman Sachs werden die Firmen im S&P 500 heuer nicht nur 220 Mrd. $ für Dividenden ausgeben, sondern auch 410 Mrd. $ für Aktienrückkäufe. An der Konsensgewinnerwartung gemessen entspricht die Gesamtausschüttung damit 86 Prozent des GAAP-Gewinns. Bei einer Thesaurierungsquote von nur einem Siebtel müssten die Firmen im Schnitt eine Eigenkapitalrendite von 47 Prozent erwirtschaften, um den Gewinn nachhaltig um 6,7 Prozent steigern zu können. Tatsächlich wird laut Credit Suisse für 2006 eine mittlere Eigenkapitalrendite von 18,6 Prozent erwartet. Natürlich könnten die Firmen die Aktienrückkäufe drosseln, um Geld für Investitionen frei zu machen. Aber angesichts des freigiebigen Umgangs mit Mitarbeiteroptionen würde sich das vermutlich schnell negativ auf den Aktienumlauf auswirken.

Dass die Gewinne im S&P 500, wie Goldman andeutet, schneller steigen können als das nominale BIP, weil schwache Firmen dauernd durch starke ersetzt werden, ist übrigens auch nicht gesagt. Zwischen 1943 und 2005 hat das nominale US-BIP im Schnitt um 6,9 Prozent zugelegt. Laut BIP-Abgrenzung sind die Gewinne gar um 7,4 Prozent gewachsen. Die Gewinnquote stieg eben von 5,5 auf 7,5 Prozent.

PS: Aktuell liegt die Gewinnquote bei 8,5 Prozent. Das ist der höchste Wert seit 1929.


Thursday, September 28, 2006

nasdag bubble vs. housing bubble

dank geht an charles hugh smith

ohne worte.



Housing Boom in Billings / billings is everywhere

wenn das video nicht funktioniert bitte den link benutzen/if player is down please use the link! a must see!!!!!!!!!!

A mini-documentary about the housing boom in Billings, Montana. Examines the premise of their being a housing bubble in Billings. On-the-ground reports on condos, new construction, and current market conditions.

das ganze ist ne minidoku über billings. könnte aber wohl auch für jede andere "normale" stadt in den usa gelten. video dauert ca. 20 minuten und zeigt wirklich exemplarisch wie selbst in der provinz bzw. auf dem platten land der bubble angekommen ist.

große klasse!

dank geht an den "regisseur/reporter" tango in uniform!

nehmt euch die zeit.


us gdp daten

alles in allem ein grund zum feiern und sich die dow 12.000 mützen aufzusetzen, oder?

U.S. Q2 GDP UP 2.6% VS 2.9% PREV EST

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Second quarter U.S. growth increased at a 2.6% rate, slightly lower than previous estimates of a 2.9% growth rate, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

Economic growth has averaged a 3.6% rate over the past four quarters. The economy expanded at a 5.6% rate in the first quarter. (minicrash)

The revisions to second-quarter GDP were largely due to lower inventory investment and a worsening trade balance.Final sales of domestic product increased 2.1%, down from 2.3% in the previous estimate.

As in the previous estimates of second-quarter gross domestic product, consumer spending was the main engine of growth, rising at a 2.6% annual pace. But this is down from an increase of 4.8% in the first quarter. (fast ne halbierung und der trend dürfte sich trotz der sinkenden benzinpreise nicht umkehren lassen)

There were signs of a weaker economy. Spending on software and equipment fell 1.4%, the biggest drop since the fourth quarter of 2002. (wo bleiben bloß die firmen die ja voll mit cash sitzen und den rückgang beim konsumenten auffangen sollen?)

And residential investment, reflecting the slumping housing market, fell 11.1%, the largest decline in 11 years.


Key inflation data were revised marginally lower. The core inflation measure, closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 2.7% in the second quarter, down from 2.8% reported earlier. The year-over-year change was revised down to 2.2% from the previous estimate of 2.3%. This is still above the Fed’s comfort zone of 1% to 2%. (und die rate abseits von "core")


Corporate profits were revised lower to an increase of 1.4%, compared with the previous estimate of a 3.2% increase. This is the smallest gain in quarterly profits since the third quarter of 2005. In the past year, before-tax profits are up 18.5%


US housing bubble: Economy in denial

man kann nur hoffen das diesen bericht möglichst viele asiaten lesen. am besten auch einige notenbänker........

dank geht an arm apocalypse now und ben

US housing bubble: Economy in denial By Axel Merk

Every day, another economist claims that the impact of the slowdown in housing on the US economy has been overstated; a few months ago, many still disputed that there even was a housing bubble. There has been a housing bubble, the bubble has only started to deflate, and it may have very negative long-term implications for the US economy as well as the US dollar

Almost every day, a high-profile company directly or indirectly targeting the US consumer warns that its outlook is bleak. Let it be Yahoo warning about advertising revenues; let it be Dell's warning that its eternal rebate programs cannot push sales any more; or let it be the automakers that sell many of their brands at prices below last year's level, yet are still unable to boost volume. All these incidents are linked to the US consumer; and US consumer spending, in turn, is very closely linked to the health of the housing market. It also comes as no surprise that so far this year, the US dollar has fallen significantly versus a basket of currencies.

Home-building activity has collapsed, with some builders reporting as many as half their orders canceled. The volume of homes sold has declined and inventories are up. Home prices have - so far - held up reasonably well, mostly because the cost of long-term mortgages has been reasonable; while short-term interest rates have risen, interest rates on longer-term loans have in some instances even come down.

As a result, the squeeze on consumer spending has been relatively mild and limited to a squeeze on homeowners who have been dependent on adjustable rate mortgages who have seen their rates rise; beyond that, the squeeze has been on home owners who have employed their homes as automated teller machines - these owners are dependent on eternally rising home values to finance their spending.

By keeping inflation expectations low and the threat of an economic slowdown high, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has engineered an environment where homeowners have the opportunity to move out of adjustable-rate mortgages into longer-term, fixed-rate mortgages.

The Fed publishes a "Financial Obligations Ratio" (FOR) that tries to capture all forms of debt service payments from lease payments on cars and other debt service payments such as mortgage payments as a percentage of disposable income. Please have a look at the chart, which divides this ratio into debt service payments due to mortgage payments and those due to other consumer spending (the total FOR would be the sum of the two, not shown); the chart also shows the Fed Funds Target Rate, which the target interest rate the Fed charges other institutions for overnight lending. At the time of this writing, data have only been published through the end of the first quarter of 2006:

As interest rates were declining from 2001 until 2003, a gradually increasing portion of disposable income was spent on servicing debt. This may sound counter-intuitive, but was the result of a coordinated effort by the Fed and the administration to keep consumer spending through low interest rates and low taxes. Despite the corporate recession caused by the bursting of the tech bubble and the tragedy of September 11, 2001, consumer spending remained robust. What was happening is that ever more purchases took place on credit, the total debt burden (not shown on the graph) steadily increased.

Now look on the right hand side of the graph, and you see that as interest rates creep up, the percentage of income spent to service mortgages has been going up. Aside from higher interest rates, home values continued to rise during this period.

Many say American consumers are hopelessly addicted to spending. We disagree - Americans during the Great Depression and the generation that grew up during these years were great savers. American consumers are far more rational than they are given credit for: it is the policies in place that have fostered consumption ad absurdum. If you look at the right hand side of the chart, you will see that as debt service payments for mortgages continue to climb, the allocation made for consumer goods is beginning to come down.

Because housing has held up reasonably well, we so far experience the "soft landing" scenario so many have been praying for. We often emphasize how dependent the US economy is on consumer spending. Economist Kurt Richebacher put this in perspective: "In 2005, real disposable incomes of private households in the United States increased $93.8 billion, or 1.2%, while their debts grew $1,208.6 billion, or 11.7%. Total consumer spending on goods, services and new housing accounted for 92% of real GDP growth."

Unlike the stock market, the housing market is far less liquid; as a result, the unwinding of the housing bubble takes years. The "wealth effect" - the impact paper profits have on household spending - is far more significant in the housing market than it is in the stock market. The conclusion to draw is that we are in for a long and grinding road ahead.

Let us tie in the dollar to the discussion. The boosting of household spending through low interest rates and low taxes has left its marks; the trade and current account deficits have soared, the dollar has not fared well

These days, foreigners need to acquire more than $2 billion worth of US dollar-denominated assets every single day, just to keep the dollar stable; we do not need foreigners to sell US dollars for the dollar to be under pressure, we just need them to buy less. With the US economy slowing down, there is a chance that the trade deficit is topping out as we have to slow down consumption of imported goods.

But there is also a major risk that foreigners will reduce their investments in the US: it is that risk that policy makers are so concerned about. Already corporate America is investing its cash abroad as it sees better opportunities overseas. As a further deterioration in the housing market signals the way into recession, where will foreigners invest their money?

We believe that we have only seen the beginning of the fallout of a slowing housing market. As inventories of unsold homes increase, home prices are likely to come down significantly in many parts of the country. Because consumers have so much more debt outstanding than in past economic cycles, the drag on economic activity will be amplified.

In the meantime, we see the financial services sector engaging in more speculative activity. Blue chip firms are acquiring sub-prime mortgage lenders, such as Merrill Lynch paying $1.3 billion this month to get $7 billion worth of risky loans onto their balance sheet. Merrill would refuse managing the savings of the mortgage holders, but is gladly taking on their debt; in an environment where just about everyone could get a mortgage, you must be in rather bad financial shape to resort to apply for a mortgage with a sub-prime lender.

This particular lender Merrill acquired, the nation's 10th-largest, issued almost $30 billion in mortgages last year. The attraction in the business is the securitization of the mortgages into collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) and the resulting segmentation into various securities. It is an open secret, however, that this is a very obscure market dealing in at times, very risky products that may not be well understood, sometimes not even by the issuer.

In our view, just as investment banks are eager to load up their balance sheet with hot potatoes, a scandal waiting to happen is building in the mortgage industry. To make home ownership more accessible, many sub-prime lenders have offered mortgages where only a fraction of the interest is paid each month, and the remaining interest is rolled into the principal. In other words, each month, your mortgage is growing; the hope is that higher home values will bail the homeowner and the bank out.

Needless to say, the holders of such mortgages typically make little or no deposit. Why do lenders get engaged in this sort of activity? Partially because the promised yield is attractive and these hot potatoes can be passed on. But, and here is the scandal, the bank can also record the full interest income each month, even if the homeowner only pays a fraction; because it is part of the terms of the mortgage that the homeowner only pays a fraction of the full interest, the mortgage is considered to be in good standing and the full interest is recorded as income. Of course, the balance sheet of the bank deteriorates, but as long as Wall Street is more focused on earnings than balance sheets, this is a very attractive business.

Some lenders are getting leery that the market may not play along forever. Washington Mutual, one of the largest financial institutions in the US and a major player in the adjustable rate mortgage market, recently opted to issue 20 billion euros (about $25.4 billion) of debt in Europe; Europe has a long tradition of large "secured debt" offerings, where mortgages are packaged for resale; continental Europe has not seen the distortions that have been created in the US housing market. We would not be surprised if there was one day a rude awakening that risks in these products may be higher than anticipated.

Even if long-term interest rates remain low, it may well spell trouble for a growing number of homeowners. For homeowners to refinance, their homes need to be re-appraised. With a lot of arm-twisting, appraisers gave their nod of approval, so that homeowners could get access to a mortgage. But there comes a point when home values decline that appraisers simply cannot endorse unreasonable home valuations anymore.

At that point, homeowners are stuck with their current mortgage, possibly an adjustable-rate mortgage. Homeowners may also not be able to afford to move away as selling their homes would not cover the mortgage. In an era where too many homeowners have opted to pay no money down, have closing costs rolled into the mortgage and likely even taken out an equity line of credit to finance the remodeling, this affects many homeowners.

There are those who say there is nothing to worry about because there is a large group of homeowners with fixed-rate mortgages with stable incomes. Prices are not set by those who do not sell; prices are set by supply and demand. And supply has been increasing, providing pressure on home values.

When Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says that the US must help the Chinese master their growth as it would be to its peril not to do so, what he means is that we cannot afford a slowdown. If we were suddenly to turn the US into a nation of savers (rather than consumers of imported goods), we could expect the dollar to recover. But because the housing market will have a worse impact on the economy than many anticipate, we expect the Fed to try to "rescue" the economy.

With commodity prices coming down and long-term interest rates falling, the fear of deflation is back on the table. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is known to see grave dangers in deflation; before becoming chairman, he commended Japan on its ultra-loose monetary policy; he has also written in-depth about the Great Depression and identified the gold standard and too strong a dollar as an impediment to economic recovery.

In conclusion, we see the housing market slowdown signal an upcoming recession. We see the dollar at risk should investments in the US decrease faster than consumption slows. And we see substantial risks to the dollar once it becomes apparent that the Fed will come to the perceived rescue of the economy.

Even with gold under pressure in the short term, investors in gold firmly believe that the Fed will have to opt for growth rather than price stability. As numerous asset classes may be at risk in the environment ahead, shifting money out of the dollar into a basket of hard currencies may provide valuable long-term diversification


correlation new home sales and recessions

die ganze welt ist auf der suche nach einigermaßen verläßlichen indikatoren um zukünftige entwicklungen vorherzusagen. das führt unter anderem zu einigen skurilen indikatoren wie dem "super bowl indikator", "sell in may", etc.

alle haben sie eines gemeinsam. die prognosesicherheit ist mehr als fehlerhaft.ein indikator der bisher eine überragende trefferquote hatte ist die korrelation von new home sales und das anzeigen von kommenden rezessionen. da das ausmaß des booms/bubbles größer als jemals zuvor ist stellt sich eigentlich nur die frage wie lange und schmerzhaft der abschwung bzw die rezession sein wird.

dank geht an calculated risk

New Home sales were falling prior to every recession of the last 35 years, with the exception of the business investment led recession of 2001. This should raise concerns about a possible consumer led recession in the months ahead.


ein anderer verläßlicher indikator zum anzeigen von rezessionen ist übrigens ne inverse zinskurve........

börse/wall street und realität sind wie es scheint mehr denn je zwei verschiedene welten.

rest der ganzen story /wirklich zu empfehlen!!


Home-Equity Loss Rate Rises to Most Since 2001

so langsam müßten eigentlich die käufer der mbs aufwachen und höheren risikoprämien verlangen. die meldungen von problembeladenen krediten häufen sich

dank geht an mish

Home-Equity Loss Rate Rises to Most Since 2001, Moody's Says

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The rate of losses on U.S. home- equity loans in June reached its worst level since 2001 because of more foreclosures, Moody's Investors Service said.

The loss rate climbed to 1.05 percent of total loans from 0.8 percent in June 2005, Moody's said in a statement yesterday. The amount of loans with payments more than 60 days late rose to 6.76 percent from 5.86 percent. There were $551.1 billion of securities backed by home-equity loans outstanding at the end of last year, according to the Bond Market Association.

Destruction from Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama last year along with layoffs in the Detroit area by carmakers Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. this year have left more people unable to pay bills, said Michael Youngblood, a Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. analyst.

``We have seen much greater weakness in the rust belt cities than anticipated,'' Youngblood said in an interview today. das kommt von dem typen der vor einigen wochen diese gesagt hat/this comes from the guy who predicted this a few weeks ago

Housing prices will rise in each of the next four quarters, but by progressively slower rates year over year: 7.1% in 2Q 2006; 5.7% in 3Q 2006; 4.4% in 4Q 2006 and 3.5% in 1Q 2007.
rest vom genius youngblood

The share of mortgages entering foreclosure at the end of June was the highest since the fourth quarter of 2004,.....

Losses and delinquencies may affect the prices of asset- backed securities of home equity loans, the biggest part of the $1.96 trillion asset-backed securities market, which also includes automotive, credit-card and student loans. At the end of last year, securities outstanding backed by home-equity loans accounted for roughly 28 percent of the asset-backed market.

Morgan Stanley was the biggest issuer of home-equity asset- backed securities in the first half of this year was with $24.1 billion in proceeds, according to a July 14 report by Citigroup Inc. analyst Mary Kane. There were $13.5 billion new home-equity sales by all issuers last week, Bank of America strategist Yingwei Chen said in a report yesterday.

The yield premiums on floating-rate home-equity loans fell to 83 basis points, or 0.83 percentage point, over Treasuries with similar maturities from 86 basis points a year ago, according to Merrill Lynch.


Wednesday, September 27, 2006

new home sales down 17,4% y/y





nehmt die incentives von im schnitt 10% (in der spitze bis 30%) hinzu und das ganze sieht noch unerfreulicher aus.

The standard error is so high, in fact, that the government cannot be sure sales increased at all in August. The 4.1% increase is statistically meaningless.

Sales are down 17.4% in the past year and are down 23% from the peak last July.

Regionally, sales rose 21.7% in the Northeast, 12.2% in the Midwest, and 11.1% in the South. Sales dropped 17.7% in the West to the lowest level since November 2001.

The six-month average is down 16% from December. Sales are down 17.4% in the past year

more details and graphs from calculated risk

plus revisions down as far as the eye can see. danke geht an kim und hoz

Comment by Kim
2006-09-27 06:51:01
Actually, May, June and July were revised sharply lower. If August also needs to be revised lower by the same amount as July(-.063M), which does not seem unlikely, then August numbers will actually be lower than July, and they will be under 1M.

dank geht hier an james bednar vom fantastischen blog

Initial - 1,233
Revised - 1,173 (Down 4.9%)

Initial - 1,080
Revised - 1,038 (Down 3.9%)

Initial - 1,213
Revised - 1,121 (Down 7.6%)

Initial - 1,198
Revised - 1,121 (Down 6.4%)

Initial - 1,234
Revised - 1,101 (Down 10.8%)

Initial - 1,131
Revised - 1,091 (Down 3.5%)

Initial - 1,072
Revised - 1,009 (Down 5.8%)


liar loans / statet income

lest euch das ganz genau durch. so funktioniert zu großen teilen das spiel. immer neue wege der "kreativen" finanzierungsformen müssen herhalten um die immopreise hochzuhalten bzw. weiter aufzupumpen. die käufer dieser kredite/mbs werden sich in den nächsten jahren noch wundern was in den letzten jahren alles verzapft worden ist.

liar loans

What if you could get into Stanford by simply telling the admissions office you are an A-plus student -- without any proof? Or how about driving a brand new Mercedes off the lot after promising the salesman you'll send him a check next week? Fat chance, right? So you might be surprised how easy it is for people buying a new house to borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars by simply telling the bank how much money they make -- without any proof. It's called a "stated income" loan, but many people inside the housing industry call it something else: a "liar loan."

Brian is a Bay Area mortgage broker. "Michael" is his client -- a 23-year-old auto mechanic. The payment on Michael�s new home is $4,200 a month, but he only earns about $4,000 a month -- leaving him $200 in the red. He was only able to get the loan because his broker used "stated income" to inflate his paycheck. Brian (the broker) said, "I put on the application that he made $13,000 a month, which was unverified � That's the definition of a stated income loan. You state the income. Most definitely it was a fraudulent loan. The income was literally made up from thin air."

Now you might think getting a loan still works like an old Hollywood movie, where buyers have to fully document that they make enough money to pay back the bank. But over the last decade, Bay Area home prices have gone up 300 percent -- far outpacing people's incomes -- which is why nine out of 10 households can no longer afford the median home price of $630,000. So to keep the clients and cash rolling in, banks and other mortgage companies began offering easier terms like no money down, adjustable rates, interest-only, and stated income.

One broker, "Dennis," works for a mortgage company where he says a whopping 85 percent of loans are stated income. He says out of that 85 percent, they all have inflated numbers.

"All of them, because that's why you're going stated." Dennis added. "We've seen the banking industry keep getting more creative, and more creative, and more creative to keep putting fuel on this fire of home appreciation."

Consider, for example, what would happen in a Monopoly game if every player claimed to make more than $200 each time they pass "Go" -- maybe $400, $600, even $1,000 with each pass. Pretty soon: a bidding war, with players paying Boardwalk prices, even for a fixer-upper like Baltic Avenue, based on money they don't really have.

But the buyers may not even know their incomes are being inflated.

Dennis said, "Some may know. But for the most part I would say the consumer is pretty much left out of the loop."

Out of the loop because the broker often prepares the loan papers without ever telling the buyer their income has been inflated. And buyers may then unknowingly sign a fraudulent income number on their loan.

But if it leads to getting their piece of the American dream, homebuyers must be happy, right?

Not according to Beverly and Dwayne, two Bay Area homeowners.

"Right now I'm living from paycheck to paycheck. I'm struggling with putting gas in my car just to get to work," Beverly said.

Last May, Beverly and Dwayne bought their first home. Their broker assured them they could afford the half-a-million-dollar price tag based on Beverly's income as a social worker. She makes $2,750 a month.

But what they didn't know? To make the deal work, the broker boosted Dwayne's salary to an impressive $8,000 a month.

"I wish I did make $8,000 a month," Dwayne said.

In truth, Dwayne is out of work and only gets a small disability check. Nevertheless, based on their inflated income, they qualified for a mortgage of $3,700 a month. That's almost $1,000 more than Beverly's entire paycheck.

"I didn't find out until the signing," Beverly said. "And I said 'I can't afford to pay that,' and the realtor said, 'Don't worry about it, we're gonna immediately refinance it.' "

Refinancing is what keeps many new buyers in the game, but only if interest rates stay low and housing prices go up. Instead, interest rates are rising. And though Bay Area prices are still going up, the market is weakening.

Beverly and Dwayne have spent the last five months trying to refinance. Their life savings are gone. They sleep on an air mattress. They've already been late on one loan payment.

"This has turned into a complete nightmare," Beverly said.

Now you might think mortgage lenders would be more careful giving out hundreds of thousands of dollars without proof of income. But in fact there's almost no risk to the bank. That's because most banks turn right around and sell their loans to real estate investors on Wall Street -- to mutual funds, pension funds -- even foreign countries.

Raphael Bostic teaches real estate at the University of Southern California. He said in the old days, if a family didn't repay its loan, the bank took the hit.

"In today's environment, if a family does not repay, some nameless, faceless guy in Wall Street in New York, or the investors take the hit. The bank is not put at risk at all, and so they're not that concerned."

He added, "What it does is it reduces to some degree a bank's concern and a bank's diligence in making sure that the loans they originate are actually going to pay in the long run."

And banks and brokers aren't concerned about getting caught cheating, said Brian, which is why stated income fraud remains a dirty little secret from most buyers.

And the reason why nobody in the loan industry is talking about it? According to Brian, "When you have a $10,000 commission check dangling in front of you, it's kind of hard to want to give that up."

Beverly said, "You know they say you make sacrifices to keep what you have, but they didn't tell me I would totally have to stop living and just exist because of somebody else's deceit."


24 month off supply /24 monate auf halde palm beach

palm beach liegt in florida und hat mehrere probleme. zum einen übetrumpfen sie den landesschnitt um 400% im bereich foreclosure/zwangsvollstreckungen und zum anderen ist das verhältnis zwischen angebot und nachfrage komplett aus dem ruder gelaufen.

leigt es landesweit bei knapp über 7 monaten sind es hier 2 jahre. bisher hat selbst der lobbyisten/propaganda verein nar (vereinigung der makler) davon gesprochen das alles was über 7 monate ist ein problem darstellt.

intel würde seinen bestand an zusätzlichen mikochips jetzt im rahmen ner mrd$ schweren sonderabschreibung bereinigen.

hier werden die aufräumarbeiten wohl noch jahre dauern.

dank ghet an bigdaddy63 und ben

Palm Beach Post

Buyers closed on 655 home sales in August,

The decline followed a 44 percent drop in sales in July, year over year, and
a 33 percent decline in June.

There isn't much positive to highlight," said Mike Larson, an analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter. "And all that occurred despite a recent downtick in interest rates and a general lack of serious hurricane activity, though we did have an Ernesto scare at the end of the month

Meanwhile, the number of unsold homes in Palm Beach County continues to rise, according to a local real estate company's analysis of Multiple Listing Service records. In August, 28,182 homes were for sale — more than three times the number on the market in August 2005.

plus condo sales 655 units.

655 + 515 = 1170. 28,182/1170 = 24 months of inventory. (dank geht an sfc)


Tuesday, September 26, 2006

lows, pentair, ethan allen ......

die liste der warning gets munter weiter und läuft parallel mit immer neuen höchstkursen in dow und co.

Ethan Allen Puts Revenue Below Estimates

Furniture maker Ethan Allen projected fiscal first-quarter revenue below Wall Street's targets, citing weakness in consumer confidence.

The company said Monday that it expects revenue of $240 million to $245 million for the September quarter. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call have an average estimate for revenue of $264 million

Pentair lowers outlook due to soft pool equipment market

It expects pool equipment sales for the fourth quarter to come in between $30 million and $60 million below year-ago levels for the fourth quarter. Pentair now sees earnings of 30 to 32 cents a share for the third quarter

The company's previous outlook for the third quarter was for earnings of 46 to 50 cents a share

For the full year, the company now expects earnings from continuing operations of $1.72 to $1.76 a share. Wall Street's current consensus estimate is for earnings of $2.08 a share on the year. Pentair also lowered its free cash flow estimate for 2006 to between $170 million and $180 million from a prior view of $200 million

Lowe's cuts profit view to lower end of forecast

citing near-term pressures on consumers such as a weaker housing market and high energy costs

Last month, Lowe's shares fell after the retailer reported second-quarter earnings that missed Wall Street's outlook. At that time, Lowe's also cut its full-year profit forecast, citing pressure on consumer spending from higher energy prices and a slowing housing market (2nd. warning since august!)

to be continued........


party like its 1999 / reality check

man muß es nochmals lesen bzw. bloggen um das ausmaß der abkopplung der kursentwicklung von der realitätä zu erfassen. aber so ist sie halt die börse und ganz besonders wall street.

faktenlage der letzten 5 tage / dank an woernie

inverse zinskurve signalisiert rezession.

warnings in den letzten tagen u.a. von national semi, pmc sierra, lows, pentair, lennar und allen andern homebuildern, ford, chrysler, visteon, avid, microsemi, advanced medical, boston scientific, yhoo, ny times , diverse trucking comp., ethan ellen, best buy, borg warner etc

massenhaft downgrades quer durch alle sektoren (besonders rohstoffnahe bereiche)

dazu noch einige optionsskandale,,

ceo´s downbeat on economy

cfo´s sees 33% chance of recession

immobiliensektor bricht ein

hedge fonds implodieren

philly fed signalisiert rezession

positiv: fallender ölpreis plus niedrige umlaufrendite die aber wiederum ne rezession ankündigt.

beste datenlage also um die märkte fundamental gerechfertigt auf neue höhen zu treiben......


cartoon arms

dank an die ny times und mish

dieser cartoons zeigt gut welche optionen die kredinehmenr haben, oder auch nicht mehr......

zur vergrößerung / enlarge


lennar warns again

nach der warnung am 8.september erfolgt keine 2-3 wochen später die nächste warnung.




LENNAR Q3 EPS $1.30, DOWN 37%



Gross margin on home sales of 18.7% - down 760 basis points
primarily due to higher sales incentives offered to homebuyers and $32.0 million of inventory valuation adjustments. Gross margin percentage in the third quarter of 2006 was also 480 basis points lower than the 23.5% gross margin percentage in the second quarter of 2006.

Gross profit on land sales of ($0.3) million - down $46.7 million
Gross profit (loss) on land sales totaled ($0.3) million in the third quarter of 2006 (net of $15.8 million of write-offs of deposits and pre- acquisition costs related to land under option that the Company does not intend to purchase and $11.8 million of inventory valuation adjustments),

Financial Services operating earnings of $61.7 million - up $26.8 million

Homebuilding debt to total capital of 31.9% - 520 basis point improvement

Return on equity of 25.2%

Deliveries of 13,038 homes - up 19%

New orders of 11,056 homes - down 5%

Company's backlog as of August 31, 2006 was 16,008 homes with a backlog dollar value of $5.6 billion, compared to 21,818 homes with a backlog dollar value of $8.1 billion at August 31, 2005 (minus 26% units, 31% in value!)

es wird immerdeutlicher das um überhaupt noch häuser zu verkaufen man massiv incentives vergeben muß. in einzelfällen gibt es angebote von bis zu 30% und mehreren 100.000$!.

der hammer wird wohl dann kommen wenn größere landabschreibungen nötig sein werden.

die letzten dieser meldungen haben jedesmal zu massiven kursanstiegen geführt. kann ich gut nachvollziehen........ war bei jdsu, csco und co wohl auch so. nach dem motto "schlimmer gehts nimmer".


Monday, September 25, 2006

uncharted territory / builder online region by region!

nachfolgend ein bericht von man höre und staune aus "builder online" einem infomagazin der bauindustrie. hat also halboffiziellen charakter. finde die aufschlüsselung der einzelnen märkte hervorragend. zeigt sehr deutlich das einige redgionen die bis vor kurzem noch einigermaßen im rahmen waren nach und nachj vom "rolling bubble" erfaßt werden. am besten beschrieben im ersten beispiel.

dank geht an bubbel butt und ben

das nachfolgende ist ne zusammenfassung/summary/highlights


Many buyers at the start of the boom came from cities farther south, such as Miami and Fort Lauderdale, where Florida's extreme price appreciation appeared first, says Larry Brians, co-owner of Port St. Lucie–based Town and Country Home Builders, which closed 75 homes last year. Most of his buyers sold their existing homes at enormous profits, bought in Port St. Lucie, and had cash to spare. “They could get a brand-new home here that was twice as big and twice as nice as the homes they had in Miami or [Fort] Lauderdale,” he says. The equity those buyers brought enabled builders in Port St. Lucie to raise prices accordingly. Brians says the market easily absorbed the $5,000 increases he was adding to his homes every 30 to 60 days.

Brians recalls what happened with land prices: “You could find lots for $5,000. Then it got to a point where lots were at about $25,000—and I'm thinking this has to be the max that anybody would be willing to pay—but then they were $35,000, then $45,000, then $50,000. When they hit $50,000, I really thought there was no way anybody in Port St. Lucie would spend $50,000 on a lot. Over the next year, they hit $100,000 to $120,000. One area that turned out to be a really nice area started to go for $120,000. Two years ago [the lots there] went for $3,500 a piece. We would have bet millions that this would never have happened in our lifetimes

It's difficult to know just how many homes speculators bought—especially because builders said throughout the boom that they were not selling to investors—but McCabe estimates that they may have accounted for as much as half of South Florida's single-family home sales. Some Port St. Lucie builders and industry observers say it was an open secret that investors accounted for a large share of the market's sales. “Absolutely, they were selling to investors,” says Bart Johnson, a Realtor with ReMax 100 Riverside, based in Port St. Lucie, adding that he knew one investor who bought 250 from one builder alone.

Prices on those highly priced lots have begun to retreat, too, though they're unlikely to fall to their pre-boom levels. “They will probably bottom out around $50,000,” Brians says, adding, “but I also thought they would top out at $50,000.”


Average, 1995–2002: 78.3%

1Q2005: 42.6%

1Q2006: 22.7%

THE PHOENIX MARKET Temporary Grounding

“HIT THE wall” for Hacienda Builders this summer. In the second week of July, the Scottsdale, Ariz.–based builder sold eight homes in Phoenix, but had seven cancellations. Hacienda has also lowered the price of its most economical home to $170,000 from $220,000. But the company, which became accustomed to closing 800 to 1,000 homes per year, will probably close only 200 to 300 in 2006

Last October, the lines [of customers] started getting shorter. Then, in January, the lines were gone. Every week got a little harder, and by April 1 it was just dead

a sizable percentage of permits issued in Phoenix in recent years have been for lots in outlying areas that are 45 to 60 minutes away from job centers. The absolute softest parts of the market are where there are no roads,” (wen wundert das.../very surprising....)

But he and other builders here believe that any short-term decline will ultimately be a “hiccup” in Phoenix's long-term “exponential growth (dream on / träum weiter )


Average, 1995–2002: 70.3%

1Q2005: 60.1%

1Q2006: 32.9%

BOSTON Pricing's Power

SOMETHING HAD TO GIVE. Boston's housing market headed upward for 12 years. It shrugged off interest rates approaching 9 percent in 1995. It flourished through the loss of tens of thousands of jobs after the tech crash of 2001. Even as Massachusetts fell into the undesirable group of states losing population, housing prices in the Boston market continued to move higher.

By late last year, buyers had had enough


Change from 2Q2005: +85%

Change from 1Q2006: +129%


Land “has gone haywire, doubling or tripling” over the past year, says Mike Williamson, Sage Homes' vice president, who's seen quarter-acre lots going for $150,000 to $200,000

In mid-July, he was offered 10,000-square-foot unfinished lots in Magna, Utah, for $93,000 per lot; 10 years ago, Hamlet could build homes in that same town at a total cost of $85,000.

prices had increased by one-third, to $280,000, in Salt Lake's Sugar House area during the first quarter of this year, and by more than 57 percent, to $529,000, in Alpine, Utah.

RENO, NEV Move-Up Magnet

Home prices appreciated within a healthy range of 1.9 percent to 4.9 percent between 1993 and 2001, according to data tracked by Kaiser. Back then, median home prices were well below $200,000, and about 70 percent of the homes sold were affordable to median-income households.

Seemingly overnight, the market turned. It was a turn for the better, at least at the start. Job growth picked up, and prices grew 9 percent in 2002, followed by 15.4 percent growth in 2003, 31.3 percent in 2004, and 23 percent in 2005. Prices in some submarkets jumped 40 percent a year.

By last year, median prices hit $315,000, and families earning the median income could afford just 31 percent of the homes sold

Prices have already fallen between 5 percent and 7 percent, he says, and he anticipates a total decline of 10 percent to 15 percent for the year due to the oversupply in the marke

companies (centex,pulte) have resorted to sales and price reductions of as much as $100,000 to move standing inventory


Average, 1995–2002: 66.2%

1Q2005: 30.9%

1Q2006: 17.4%

CHARLOTTE, N.C. Steady Ahead

Land is being driven up faster than I've ever seen,” says McManie, of Dublin Homes. “What cost $30,000 three years ago maybe costs $65,000 now.”

Condo buildings, not previously a significant share of Charlotte's housing stock, are popping up,

Some industry observers wonder if condo investors, having pulled out of the Florida markets, have moved into Charlotte

Condo construction has doubled since last year, says Baldwin of the Charlotte HBA, and Branch notes that seven high-rise towers have been planned for the area. Three are under construction, and three others are in presales.


Average, 1995–2002: 67.4%

1Q2005: 77.3%

1Q2006: 71.2%


about 36 percent of the new-home stock is sitting finished and unoccupied right

You couldn't give [a condo] away five years ago, and now they're starting hundreds

Underwood estimates the HBAadded 300 new builders within the last four years, and more than 200 banks in the area write construction loans. That combination may result in a shakeout of overleveraged companies unprepared to absorb the carrying costs of even a few spec homes


Change from 2Q2005: +53%

Change from 1Q2006: -25%


Over the past four years, land prices in Portland have risen 100 percent

some developers in Portland have paid up to $700,000 per acre for lots.

A study conducted by Portland State University found that, on average, developers spent $187,000 per acre in 2005, or six times what land went for 15 years ago

This price escalation is attributable in large measure to the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB), a land-use plan required under state law that separates rural land from urban land and, in effect, limits development

This year, Renaissance Home's prices are up by 40 percent, to an average of $550,000. Prices in one community have jumped to $750,000 in June 2006 from $500,000 in April 2005


Change from 2Q2005: +207%

Change from 1Q2006: +237%

SAN DIEGO Paradise Fades

HALLMARK COMMUNITIES IS REDUCING the number of homes it closes this year to 50, from 200 in 2005. And like many of its competitors, Hallmark has downsized its staff—in its case, by 50 percent

Michael Hall wants to double Hallmark's closings, to more than 100 units, within three years, and he's started to stockpile land and search for management “talent” by occasionally picking up employees who have been laid off from or have left other companies. “We've been rolling down hill, but you have to hit the bottom before you can go up again,” says Hall about the market. (bancrupcy is coming / pleite kommt sicher)

This hopeful attitude is shared by many builders here, who believe San Diego's economy is simply too sturdy for any sustained falloff in demand to take hold

there's been a 15 percent “correction” in market pricing this year, “and it's not all on the price sheet” but through incentives and broker co-ops, which he says were “unheard of” two years ago.

19,803 homes were for sale in June 2006, compared with 6,657 in June 2004.


Average, 1995–2002: 38%

1Q2005: 7%

1Q2006: 5.2%

SAN ANTONIO Avoiding the Alamo

Ten years ago, San Antonio pulled 6,200 permits; this year it will pull more than 18,000. That growth can't continue, but I don't know where it's going to land yet.”

28 percent of all home buyers still look for a house in the $100,000 to $150,000 range.

But through the first half of this year, the market's median sales price rose 8.6 percent to $139,600

“Homes we sold in the Garden Ridge section for $115,000 in 2004 now cost up to $150,000,” says Mikesell, whose company's average price has risen to between $104 and $108 per square foot, from $88 three years ago

the price of a half-acre in a good location has gone up 30 percent to 40 percent and is now between $80,000 and $100,000


Average, 1995–2002: 64%

1Q2005: 71.4%

1Q2006: 59.6%







U.S. Aug. existing home median price falls 1.7%

Median sales prices of existing homes fell from year-ago levels in August for the first time in 11 years and just the sixth time in the past 30 years, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. Sales of existing homes fell 0.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.30 million, the industry group said. Sales are down 12.6% in the past year. The median price of an existing home fell 1.7% year-over-year to $225,000. It's the first time since April 1995 that median prices have fallen on a year-over-year basis. The price correction is a welcome development, said David Lereah, chief economists for the realtors group. "The price drop has stopped the bleeding," Lereah said. "Sales have hit bottom," he said. "Sellers are finally getting it

mehr details/charts von calculatet risk


flippers in trouble

unter "flipper" versteht man spekulanten die häuser ähnlich wie daytrader an den börsen immobilien kaufen und schnell wieder umsetzten ohne jemals wirklich die absicht zu haben in diesen hütten zu wohnen. im letzten jahr sind 40% aller immobilientransaktionen auf das kontp von "investoren" gegangen. dahinter verbergen sich frienimmobilienbesitzer, richtige investoren und zum allergrößten teil halt diese kurzfristig orientierten flipper.

war das ganze in den letzten jahren noch ne lizens zum gelddrucken ähnlet der markt jetzt doch eher der nach "" zeit.

dank geht an

auf der seite sind im übrigens noch tonnen ähnlicher objekte. denke der größte teil geht bald in die zwangsvollstreckung. klasse seite!

Total Loss: $620,000Percent Loss: 31.0%
Asking Price: $1,380,000
Bedrooms:5 Baths: 4 Sq. feet:5265

Asking Price Changes:
Down 17.6% from $1,675,000 On 05-12
Down 8.0% from $1,499,500 On 06-16
Down 0.4% from $1,385,000 On 07-15

Previous Sales:
Sold on 2006-05-03 for $2,000,000


kredite über alles / credit and cars

welche rolle der zugang zu kredit speziell in den usa aber auch in anderen ländern spielt und wie sich dadurch generell alte verhaltensmuster komplett in luft auflösen wird z.b. bei der autofinanzierung überdeutlich. es gibt inzwischen aber auch beispiele von best buy wo auch "home cinema anlagen" fast nur noch kreditfinanziert abgesetzt/gepusht werden.

damit soll nicht gesagt sein das ne pkw finanzierung ncht sinnvoll ist. in der regels sind zumindest bei neuwagen die konditionen unschlagbar günstig. ne finanzierung über einen langen zeitraum ist aber immer ein zeichen dafür das immer mehr nach dem motto "wie hoch ist die rate" und nicht "wieviel kostet mich das ganze" verkauft wird.

oft genug sind über die beliebten refinanzierungen der immobilien diese pkw kredite inzwischen über 30 jahre finanziert. teures vergnügen.........

Will the loan outlive the car?

These days, 55% of new-car buyers stretch their payments over more than five years; they pay more interest but get more car. Is it a wise trade?

With used cars, 82% of buyers finance for more than four years, and 40% opt for payments to run more than five years, according to the study.

Twenty years ago, when consumers shopped for a car, they focused on the cost of the car, she says. Today, they shop payments. "The monthly payment is now what's driving the purchase."

Longer payoffs don't offer the buyer a lot of positives, Reed says. Virtually the only upside is that "you can afford a car you couldn't otherwise afford."

Some consumers may also be using longer loan terms to get into cars they might not be able to otherwise afford. If you've got your heart set on a luxury sedan and, after the down payment, need to finance $30,000, a three-year loan at 3% will cost you $872 per month. If you could pay it over seven years at 6%, the payment drops to $497. But don't forget, that also adds $4,340 in interest to the cost of the car.
New-car loans stretch and stretch




Avg. new-car loan amount




% of loans over 60 months




denke das belegt einmal mehr die abhängigkeit der amerikaner von möglichst günstigen und liquiden krediten/finanzierungsquellen. sollte dieser strom stagnieren oder gar abreißen dann sieht es zappendüster aus.


Voodoo debt and the coming recession

kann sein das die häufungen der berichte über explodierende und kaum kontrolierende kreditmärkte zufall sind. evtl. auch ein versuch der bären zu erklären wie sich die märkte trotz der sich abzeichnenden rezession in den usa noch immer nahe ihrer hochs halten.,

denke aber in der tat das sich hinter der kredit/schuldenfrage der schlüssel für die weitere entwicklung der märkte verbirgt.

With debt piled high in a variety of voodoo mortgages, the declining economy will soon turn into a bobsled ride to tears. bill fleckenstein

But while CDOs and CDSs are hard to fathom, a disruption in these risk-filled markets would become all too comprehensible to average folks -- as the aftermath would bring serious turmoil in real estate and the economy. In the spirit of "forewarned is forearmed," I will now attempt to explain a bit of this mortgage exotica, and then show what risky behavior it has financed in neighborhoods across America

In the marketplace, there are indices known as ABX.HE. They are a synthetic version of assets backed by U.S. home loans. They are subdivided into "tranches," or sections, that are grouped by their relative risk. Two weeks ago, a friend alerted me to the rather large trade that went through in a particular tranche of one of these indices. (It happened to be the BBB- tranche, which is the riskiest.) When the trade took place, it knocked the bid price a bit lower. It has continued to drift and now is off about 1.5%.

One tranche now bears a stench

What makes that interesting? In the nine months since the ABX.HE began trading, every time one of these indices has sold off, some CDO manager (with a natural appetite for asset-backed home-equity-loan securities) has stepped into the market and driven these slightly fallen angels right back up. But now those buyers seem to have disappeared.

I believe that the CDO and CDS markets (the lower-grade tranches in particular) will be ground zero in any financial dislocation. As my friend says: "A slowdown in the housing market is a growth event. Something going wrong in subprime is a volatility event" (i.e., a market dislocation). Granted, it's too isolated thus far to draw any big conclusions from, but then again, all trends must begin somewhere.

A bubble's date with a wrecking ball

Proceeding to the front of the housing ATM food chain, I'd like to spend a moment on how folks' appetite for risk has been enabled by all of this mortgage exotica. There are several worthwhile quotes that I'll now share from The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter, which has a good track record regarding that market. Some of these comments won't be news to readers, but it's nice to find other people who agree with me (as long as it isn't Time magazine), especially if they come at it from a slightly different vantage point.

Author Robert Campbell writes: "I always figured the deflation of the housing bubble would resemble a slow train wreck, but there is new evidence that makes me think the correction may occur more rapidly. This is because there is compelling evidence that a recession is dead ahead. … Now that housing prices are going sideways to down -- and incomes and jobs are still sagging -- this 'debt-fueled' artificial-life-support system for continued consumer spending (and an expanding U.S. economy) is running out of gas.

"In the long run, housing prices cannot continue compounding faster than incomes. We are now facing this economic reality. People cannot continue buying homes with creative, voodoo mortgage-loan financing -- that, in the end -- they can't afford. I don't know who has been more irresponsible, real estate agents, mortgage lenders, borrowers, or banking regulators -- but I do know that the lending standards for mortgage borrowing have dropped to a zero setting for the past five years. If people weren't in prison or earned more than the minimum wage, money essentially was free to all -- whether they could ever hope to pay it back or not."

No happy ending for housing

Continuing on, he says: "The United States has experienced the greatest real estate boom in history, but the boom is now turning into a bust, and the aftermath is not going to be pretty. Present American folklore has it that a real estate decline does not have to affect the economy. That's like saying that it will rain, but you're not going to get wet.

"The coming recession is not only going to dispel that hope, but it's going to speed up the fall. … The sad fact is that we're living in a debt-fueled economy, as opposed to an income-fueled economy. Housing prices cannot continue to compound faster than incomes forever. This incredible rise in prices has been driven by artificial demand (ultra-low interest rates and ultra-loose credit), as opposed to real demand (rising incomes and rents)."

He concludes: "Loose mortgage loans that prolonged the boom will worsen the bust. Homebuyers are now going to pay the price for their 'buy now, worry later' spending spree. … With market manias, self-feeding greed on the way up turns into self-feeding fear on the way down. That time is near."

My comment: Yes, it is.

entscheidend wird wirklich sein ob die käufer dieser mbs wirklich langsam ausreichende risikoprämien verlangen. evtl. ist das o.g. beispiel ja der anfang.