Wednesday, September 13, 2006

cfo confidence

da die cfo´s die unternehmenslage mit am besten /sogar noch vor den analysten :-) einschätzen können muß man dieser umfrage große aufmerksamkeit zuwenden. dank geht an calculated risk http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

CFOs see 33 pct chance of US recession in 12 months
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2006-09-13T195947Z_01_N12349322_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CFO-SURVEY.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Chief financial officers of U.S. corporations are increasingly pessimistic about their business and the overall economy, and put the chance of a recession within the next year at 33 percent, a quarterly survey reported on Wednesday

The level of pessimism about the U.S. economy is the highest in five years, the survey by Duke University and CFO Magazine found. Fewer finance chiefs expect to increase capital spending, their forecasts for earnings growth are lower, and expectations for hiring are down, the survey found.

The survey, which polled 571 CFOs at both public and private U.S. companies, found the average probability of a recession was one-third.

The 10-year old survey has been a strong leading indicator of corporate results and behavior, said survey director John Graham.

"I would expect earnings, capital spending and hiring to go down," Graham said, adding his forecast covered the next 12 months.

The proportion of executives saying they are more optimistic about the economy -- 19.8 percent -- is down from 24 percent in the previous survey and down from 42 percent six months ago.

A third expect to cut back on hiring if consumer demand weakens, and nearly as many -- 29 percent -- will reduce capital spending.


besonders der rapide verfall binnen 6 monaten ist bezeichnend und geht 1:1 mit dem problemen auf dem immobilienmarkt. nachdem der us konsument wie hier schon öfter beschrieben nicht mehr "unkaputtbar" ist und sich zukünftig stark einschränken muß beruht die hoffnung auf corporate america und stakem "capital spending". dem bericht nach bleibt das wie die jahre zuvor wunschdenken.

vergleicht diese aussuchten jetzt mal mit den aussichten die am aktienmarkt gerade "gespielt" werden. irgendeiner hat unrecht.

jan-martin

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