Monday, July 31, 2006

fundstück des tages

michael youngblood. diesen namen muß man sich ohne zweifel merken.
ein weitere anwärter auf das erbe von blodget, meeker, abby josef cohen, grubmann und co. das ist er.

Housing Prices Stronger Than You Think
Toddi Gutner


I find it incredibly refreshing to read Michael Youngblood’s reports on housing prices in the U.S. Why? Because the managing director of asset-backed securities research at Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. in Arlington, Va. isn’t as pessimistic as everyone else I interview.

Youngblood thinks residential real estate is a lot stronger than most people suspect. He bases his assessment on a new economic model he created that forecasts housing prices in 379 metropolitan areas (MSAs). I interviewed him back in early May when he first introduced his econometric model and he has recently re-estimated that model. The key points of his most recent report are:

Housing prices will rise in each of the next four quarters, but by progressively slower rates year over year: 7.1% in 2Q 2006; 5.7% in 3Q 2006; 4.4% in 4Q 2006 and 3.5% in 1Q 2007.

• MSAs with fastest year-over-year gains in 1Q 2006 will continue to rise. Those cities include Phoenix, Az (34% expected rise in 1Q 2007) and Naples, Fla. (51% expected rise in 1Q 2007). ich verweise hier auf das posting von standart pacific/spf wo die neuorders gerade um 80% eingebrochen sind und in phoenix der leerstand sich von 5.000 auf über 50.000 binnen der letzten 12 monate "leicht" erhöht hat.

California market will have continued rising house prices with a median year-over-year rate of 24.1% in 1Q 2007.

• Ten of the largest MSAs will continue to rises in housing prices: 17.5% in New York City; 26.7% in Los Angeles, Ca.; 4.9% in Chicago; 3.9% in Houston; and 4.8% in Atlanta, Ga.

• House prices will fall in increasingly numbers of MSAs: four in 2Q 2006; 10 in 3Q 2006; 28 in 4Q 2006 and 24 in 1Q 2007 where they should fall by a median of 1.3% year over year. Of those 24 MSAs, 17 are located in the rust belt, cotton belt and farm belt.

Only five of the largest 100 MSAs (St Louis, Mo., Pittsburg, Columbia, SC, Little Rock, Charleston, SC) will see a fall in housing prices year over year in 1Q 2007.

Only Honolulu, Ha. Which is experiencing a house price bubble, will see a fall in prices in 1Q 2007, whereas the other 73 MSAs with bubbles should rise by a median year-over-year rate of 19.6%. (das schlägt dem faß den boden aus. der typ erkennt an das es einen buuble gibt und schreibt trotzdem das die bubblestädte im durchschnitt gesunde 20% ansteigen)

was raucht der typ? diese studie ist ein grund für ne abmahnung. wenn freedmann billings und ramsey auf grundlage dieser analyse (die ja anch einem ganz neuen modell berechnet worden ist....) ihre abs handelt dann gehen die binnen 36 moanten vor die hunde.


der chart im vergleichzum sp500 spricht bände. finde im vergleich zu den aussagen von youngblood hält sich fbr noch ganz gut........

gruß

jan-martin


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