lennar warns again

nach der warnung am 8.september erfolgt keine 2-3 wochen später die nächste warnung.
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/lennar-len-warning.html

warning q4 http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060926/cltu017.html?.v=67

LENNAR: U.S. HOUSING MARKET CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE

LENNAR: REMAIN FOCUSED ON MANAGING INVENTORY

LENNAR WARNS Q4 EARNINGS TO BE $1 TO $1.30 A SHARE

LENNAR Q3 EPS $1.30, DOWN 37%

LENNAR Q3 REVENUE UP 20% TO $4.2 BILLION

LENNAR Q4 FIRST CALL $1.60

Gross margin on home sales of 18.7% - down 760 basis points
primarily due to higher sales incentives offered to homebuyers and $32.0 million of inventory valuation adjustments. Gross margin percentage in the third quarter of 2006 was also 480 basis points lower than the 23.5% gross margin percentage in the second quarter of 2006.

Gross profit on land sales of ($0.3) million - down $46.7 million
Gross profit (loss) on land sales totaled ($0.3) million in the third quarter of 2006 (net of $15.8 million of write-offs of deposits and pre- acquisition costs related to land under option that the Company does not intend to purchase and $11.8 million of inventory valuation adjustments),

Financial Services operating earnings of $61.7 million - up $26.8 million

Homebuilding debt to total capital of 31.9% - 520 basis point improvement

Return on equity of 25.2%

Deliveries of 13,038 homes - up 19%

New orders of 11,056 homes - down 5%

Company's backlog as of August 31, 2006 was 16,008 homes with a backlog dollar value of $5.6 billion, compared to 21,818 homes with a backlog dollar value of $8.1 billion at August 31, 2005 (minus 26% units, 31% in value!)

es wird immerdeutlicher das um überhaupt noch häuser zu verkaufen man massiv incentives vergeben muß. in einzelfällen gibt es angebote von bis zu 30% und mehreren 100.000$!.

der hammer wird wohl dann kommen wenn größere landabschreibungen nötig sein werden.

die letzten dieser meldungen haben jedesmal zu massiven kursanstiegen geführt. kann ich gut nachvollziehen........ war bei jdsu, csco und co wohl auch so. nach dem motto "schlimmer gehts nimmer".

jan-martin