Tuesday, September 26, 2006

party like its 1999 / reality check

man muß es nochmals lesen bzw. bloggen um das ausmaß der abkopplung der kursentwicklung von der realitätä zu erfassen. aber so ist sie halt die börse und ganz besonders wall street.

faktenlage der letzten 5 tage / dank an woernie


inverse zinskurve signalisiert rezession.

warnings in den letzten tagen u.a. von national semi, pmc sierra, lows, pentair, lennar und allen andern homebuildern, ford, chrysler, visteon, avid, microsemi, advanced medical, boston scientific, yhoo, ny times , diverse trucking comp., ethan ellen, best buy, borg warner etc

massenhaft downgrades quer durch alle sektoren (besonders rohstoffnahe bereiche)

dazu noch einige optionsskandale

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/shock-options-ausma-grer-wie-bei-enron.html, http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/options-complacency-broadcom-brcm.html, http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/kb-homes-kbh-earning-plus-options.html

ceo´s downbeat on economy
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/us-ceos-downbeat-on-economic-outlook.html

cfo´s sees 33% chance of recession
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/cfo-confidence.html

immobiliensektor bricht ein
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/us-aug-home-median-price-off-17-1st.html

hedge fonds implodieren
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/was-sind-schon-5billionen-verlust.html

philly fed signalisiert rezession
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/philly-feds-economic-gauge-is-negative.html

positiv: fallender ölpreis plus niedrige umlaufrendite die aber wiederum ne rezession ankündigt.

beste datenlage also um die märkte fundamental gerechfertigt auf neue höhen zu treiben......

jan-martin



2 Comments:

Anonymous John Fleming said...

Nikkei +2.5%
Wahnsin.
Sometimes I think we are the stupid ones. I have the idea the stock markets react to better than expected US consumer confidence, in the minute that follows. But when there is obvious long term macro-economic storm coming, they keep on doing as if it's of no concern. At least not for the moment.

1:22 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

hello john,

i think that it is really clear that the dow want to hit a new high
regardless of the news or fundamentals.

but i have hope that in the long run fundamentals matter. so far i´ve been wrong.

it will be interesting to see what happens when the new high is taken out. all the bets were on this one. new money is needed.

good to see that the problem with the disappearing posts on bens blog is no longer there.

1:30 AM  

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