Friday, December 04, 2009

Market Quotes From Rosenberg & Hussman

The quotes along with the cartoon reflect pretty much my market outlook ...... Be very careful if you are long ( congratiolations to the courage ) this market...... I´m still sticking with my view that from a risk/reward perspective it makes no sense ( Goldman & BofA Merrill Lynch & JP Morgan & John Paulson beg to differ...... ) to invest ( long term exception Gold, short term it looks a little bit crowded ) in this market. Most Insiders ( Ratio 98:1 ) are also a lot more "cautious"......... And everybody pointing out to the "strong" jobs report on Friday as a sign that fundamentals are playing catch up with this "priced for v-shaped-perfection market" again should take a look at this amusing clip :-)

Die beiden Zitate zusammen mit dem Cartoon geben ziemlich genau meinen Marktausblick wieder.... Denke das jeder der momentan noch investiert ist ( Glückwunsch für den Mut ) sehr wachsam sein sollte...... Ich bleibe dabei das es bereits seit einiger Zeit unter Chance/Risikogesichtspunkten keinen Sinn ( Ausnahme langfristig Gold, kurzfristig sieht es allerdings etwas überhitzt aus ) mehr macht in diesen Märkten zu investieren ( Ganz im Gegenteil zu Goldman & BofA Merrill Lynch & JP Morgan & John Paulson .... ). Die Insider schließen sich bei einen es bei einem Verhältnis von 98 zu 1 eher meiner Meinung an.......Für alle die im Arbeitsmarktbericht vom Freitag die Wende zu besseren Fundamentaldaten erkannt haben wollen die dringenst benötigt werden um den bis zur perfekten V-Shaped Erholung bewerteten Markt auf ein noch steileres "V" zu treiben dem empfehle ich einen Blick auf diesen wirklich gelungenen Clip werfen ;-)

David Rosenberg

"So this remains the Houdini rally — no jobs; no pricing power; no broad participation; and no volume "


"Over the past decade, the stature of the market as an effective discounting mechanism has gradually eroded. The observation and analysis of potential risks – though essential to long-term investing and loss avoidance – is far less actionable than one might expect. Investors will evidently speculate as long they have dice in their hands and the casino is not visibly on fire."

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Blogger jmf said...

'Fear' Gauge Flashes Complacency / Chart

2:28 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

The Rally Apologista’s Handbook via Barry ;-)

8:59 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Historical Risk Indicator / Chart FT Alphaville

5:13 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


5:40 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Bears In Hibernation / Chart Mish

9:51 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Too Few Bears Spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E / Chart
Edwards via Barry

12:22 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Up 12.53% in 2010?

7:18 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Pump & Dump from the retail investor.... ;-)

ICI Discloses 16th Sequential Outflow From Domestic Equity Funds: $44 Billion Withdrawn Since August

7:33 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

via Börse Online

Wie lautet Ihr DAX-Kursziel für Ende 2010?

7000 Punkte

6000 Punkte

5000 Punkte

4000 Punkte

Gesamt: 3853 Teilnehmer

9:55 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Up 62% in 9 Months / Chart

12:03 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

A Brief List of Things the Market No Longer Seems to Care About Reformed Broker

A Brief List of Things the Market No Longer Seems to Care About at the End of 2009...

Greece, Inflation, Deflation, Austria, Declining access to credit for consumers, Regional bank commercial loan liabilities, Foreclosures, Dubai, Dubai World, Meredith Whitney, Next shoes to fall, CIT, Iran's nuclear ambitions, Ireland, Bank stock dilution, Swine flu, The great AIG robbery, California's insolvency, Swiss banks that enable US tax evasion, Unemployment, China's make believe economic data, The Goldmantocracy, Commercial mortgage backed securities

11:15 PM  
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4:49 PM  

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