Quotes Albert Edwards, Bill Buckler, Alan Greenspan,William Buiter, Mr Mantega ( Brazil’s Finance Minister ), Ben Davies & Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Cannot believe that i´m quoting Greenspan without making the usual jokes about his "wisdom"......... ;-)

Fast unheimlich das man mal ohne Häme Greenspan zitieren kann...... ;-)

Albert Edwards via ZH

Central bankers, by pursuing policies that allowed the middle classes to borrow against rising asset prices, kept them consuming despite the stagnation of their incomes and hence disguised the effect of government policies that allowed the rich to acquire virtually all of the gains in GDP growth.

And in the process of “robbing” the middle classes and now still attempting to keep asset prices artificially high, they are also robbing our children of the ability to buy a house at an affordable price. Yet central bankers still see QE as key to maintaining the illusion of prosperity and stoking consumer spending

Bill Buckler via ZH

"Ninety-seven percent of all existing Treasury debt has been created since August 15, 1971! Ninety-three percent of it has been created since Mr Volcker “saved” the paper Dollar in late 1979! Please note that the gain in Treasuries and the loss in the US Dollar almost exactly cancel out.

Please note also that even the biggest gain in these paper markets fades into insignificance against Gold’s rise."And here is the answer all the "gold bugs" have been waiting for: "The paper money “price” of Gold will last as long as the attempt to make paper money “work” lasts. In the end, Gold will no longer have a “price” because it has reverted to its role as MONEY. Whenever and wherever that happens, that nation can return to the production of wealth - rather than “money”."

Alan Greenspan via The Reformed Broker

Mr. Greenspan replied that he’d thought a lot about gold prices over the years and decided the supply and demand explanations treating gold like other commodities “simply don’t pan out,” as Mr. Malpass characterized Mr. Greenspan. “He’d concluded that gold is simply different,” Mr. Malpass wrote. At one point Mr. Greenspan spoke of how, during World War II, the Allies going into North Africa found gold was insisted on in the payment of bribes. Said the former Fed chairman: “If all currencies are moving up or down together, the question is: relative to what? Gold is the canary in the coal mine. It signals problems with respect to currency markets. Central banks should pay attention to it.”

William Buiter via FT Alphaville

…even the fiscally best-positioned G7 countries, Germany and Canada, face major fiscal challenges. Germany would not be able to join the Euro Area today if it were not a member already, because it fails to meet the deficit criterion (no more than 3% of GDP) and the debt criterion (no more than 60% of GDP) – in the case of the public debt to GDP ratio, by a significant and growing margin. Indeed, the aggregate Euro Area fails both criteria by wide margins, and of the 16 individual member states, only Luxembourg and Finland qualify on both criteria…

With QE 2.0 now finally on the table & spreading "competitive devaluations" ( timing wasn´t bad... see Update)around the globe i think you should give the Ludwig von Mises reference via John Hussman a second look....

Da ja nun auch endlich offiziell QE 2.0 angekündigt worden ist und weltweit ein finaler Abwertungswettlauf ( Timing hätte schlechter sein können...siehe Update )in Sachen Währungen um sich greift ( und dabei rasant an Fahrt gewinnt ) kann es nicht schaden noch einmal einen Blick auf das Ludwig von Mises Zitat via John Hussman zu werfen....

UPDATE:

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph

States accounting for two-thirds of the global economy are either holding down their exchange rates by direct intervention or steering currencies lower in an attempt to shift problems on to somebody else, each with their own plausible justification. Nothing like this has been seen since the 1930s.

Brazil’s finance minister Mr Mantega via FT Alphaville

Mr Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, declared earlier this month that the Brazilian real was caught up in ‘a silent war’ in currency markets, as nations compete to speed up their economic recoveries by putting their exporters at an advantage…

Ben Davies Ft Alphaville

Within a single week 25 nations have deliberately slashed the values of their currencies. Nothing quite comparable with this has ever happened before in the history of the world. This world monetary earthquake will carry many lessons.

Got GOLD ? ;-)

Better Late Than Never.... AngloGold Ashanti De-Hedging Edition.....

At least we now know why GOLD has spiked yesterday to a new high...... Stunning that John Paulson as the largest shareholder with a 12.1 percent stake and one of the biggest GOLD investors out there didn´t pressure the management to eliminate the hedges way earlier..... Maybe management should have (re)read the Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust" - Erste Group (!) ....;-) Looking at the chart & as a contrarian i think it´s safe to say that at least one tiny factor driving GOLD will have almost no effect from 2011 on.....On the other hand i don´t know anybody investing in GOLD because of "de-hedging"....

Damit hätten wir auch den Grund warum GOLD ausgerechnet gestern einen gewaltigen Satz gemacht hat.....Das ausgerechnet John Paulson als einer der weltweit größten Goldinvestoren mit 12,1% größter Einzelaktionör ist, und nicht massiv auf das Managment eingewirkt hat bereits in den vergangenen Jahren die zum Teil lächerlichen Hedgingpositionen wesentlich schneller zu eliminieren, würde mir als Investor in einem der Paulson Fonds mehr als übel aufstossen....... CEO & CFO hätten beizeiten mal wieder einen Blick in den Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust" - Erste Group (!) werfen sollen... ;-) Mit Blick auf den nächsten Chart dürfte ziemlich klar werden das ab 2011 ein wenn auch winziger Treiber für den Goldpreis wegfallen dürfte....Auf der anderen Seite ist mir kein einziger GOLDinvestor bekannt der ausgerechnet wegen des Themas "De-Hedging" bullish gewesen ist.... ;-)

H/T FT Alphaville

Anglogold Ld

During 2009, AngloGold Ashanti continued to execute its strategy to reduce its outstanding gold hedging position, which resulted in its decision to acceleratethe settlement of certain outstanding gold hedging positions. These accelerated settlements, together with the normal scheduled deliveries and maturities of other gold derivatives positions during 2009 and the first half of 2010, reduced the total committed ounces from 5.99 million ounces as at 31 December 2008 to 3.22 million ounces as at 30 June 2010 and to 2.72 million ounces as at 14 September 2010.

AngloGold Ashanti estimates that its current residual hedging position would likely result in it realising an effective discount to the gold spot price of approximately 6-11% until 2014 and an effective discount of less than 1% in 2015 if the hedge book were not restructured, assuming an annual production of 5.0 million ounces and a spot price of between US$950 and US$1,450 per ounce.

AngloGold Ashanti intends to effectively eliminate all its remaining gold hedging position by early 2011

Due to the low committed prices under its current hedge contracts (at an average price of less than US$450 per ounce) relative to the current market price, the elimination of AngloGold Ashanti's hedging arrangements will require a significant capital commitment.

As at 30 June 2010, the negative marked-to-market value of all hedge transactions making up AngloGold Ashanti's hedge position was approximately US$2.41 billion.

Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust" - Erste Group Topic De-hedging

At the end of 2009 the hedged position of gold miners amounted to almost 8mn ounces (i.e.close to 250 tonnes). Barrick Gold reduced its hedge book dramatically. The Canadian market leader has cut its hedged positions by 5.3mn ounces (165 tonnes). In order to fund this strategy, the company increased its capital by USD 4bn and also issued USD 1bn worth of bonds. Barrick’s hedged positions had seen a high of more than 20mn ounces.

AngloGold and Ashanti account for the majority (i.e. close to 45%) of the existing positions.

We expect dehedging demand to gradually decrease and believe that in the long run the gold industry may shift towards hedging again so as to ensure that major projects can be planned with a certain level of accuracy.

Judging from the daily headlines on this topic i think down the road even this horrible timing will be viewed much more favourably.....

Wenn man allerdings die tagtäglichen Meldungen zu diesem Thema betrachtet, bestehen gute Chancen das selbst dieses üble Timing zukünftig "wohlwollend" in der Betrachtung wegkommen wird.....

China To Open Gold Market, Improve Tax Policies, PBOC Says

Keep in mind that just until a few years ago China had banned the private ownership of GOLD as an investment product.... Watch the clip & i assume the PBoC had to do something to keep the market operating in an orderly fashion....According to the Financial Times Deutschland GOLD in HK is trading already with very large premiums vs the London price....Another main reason could be to establish a stronger "alternative" to the quasi monopolists London & NY....Every bit of new competition for the London & NY exchanges is "appreciated"....

Vor dem Hintergrund das China bis vor einigen Jahren jeglichen privaten Besitz von GOLD im Zusammenhang mit Investments verboten hatte erscheint die Meldung in einem noch vorteilhafteren Licht.... Ich tippe mal, das wenn man sich den nachfolgenden Clip ansieht, die PBoC zumindest teilweise "Getriebener" der Entwicklung ist. Ohne eine weitere Liberalisierung könnte es leicht passieren das ein halbwegs geordneten Markt nicht mehr zu gewährleisten ist.....Wenn man der Financial Times Deutschland Glauben schenken darf wird GOLD in HK bereits jetzt mit einem mehr als happigen Aufschlag vs dem Londoner Kurs gehandelt....Ein weiteres wichtiges Argument dürfte sein eine schlagkräftige Handelsplatzalternative zu installieren....In jedem Fall ist jede zusätzliche Konkurrenz für die Börsen in London & NY mehr als willkommen.....



China to Open Gold Market, Improve Tax Policies, PBOC Says

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- China will continue to open up its gold market and will study how to improve taxation policies for the use of gold for investment purposes, the People’s Bank of China said today.

China will improve foreign-exchange policies related to the gold markets and will allow more commercial banks to export and import the metal, the central bank said in a statement on its website.

The government is also studying allowing foreign suppliers to deliver bullion directly to the Shanghai Gold Exchange, it said.

The total volume of gold traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange jumped 59 percent in the first six months from a year earlier to the equivalent of 3,174.5 metric tons (102.1 million troy ounces), Song Yuqin, vice general manager at the exchange, said last month.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange has five foreign bank members including the China units of HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc, according to a statement on the bourse’s website.

Gold demand in China, the world’s second-largest consumer, increased in the first half as government measures to cool the property market and falling equities spurred investment, the exchange said July 7. Spot gold climbed to a record in June as investors sought to protect their wealth amid concerns about the global economic recovery.

“The Chinese central bank is liberalizing the gold market step by step and this is the latest move,” said Ellison Chu, managing director at the precious-metals desk at Standard Bank Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. “It will allow more foreign participation in China’s growing gold market and it will also help China to be more integrated into the global gold-trading system.”

The central bank also said it would encourage and guide commercial banks to provide yuan-denominated gold derivative trading.

The following presentation monitoring the entire GOLD picture in China is taken from an earlier post In Fiat Money We Do Not Trust "Chinese Edition"

Die nachfolgende Präsentation die umfassend das Thema China & GOLD abhandelt stammt von einem früheren Posting In Fiat Money We Do Not Trust "Chinese Edition"
Gold Report China

Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust" - Erste Group

Probably the best summary ( 71 Pages full of charts & data ) on GOLD out there... As an example the following chart showing GOLD vs a currency basket that contains equal weights of US dollar, euro, Swiss franc, yuan, Indian rupee, British pound, and Australian dollar

Nicht umsonst wird der jährlich erscheinende GOLD Report ( satte 71 Seiten voller Daten und Charts...) der Ersten Bank als Standartwerk geadelt.....Exemplarisch der folgende Chart der GOLD vs einem gleichgewichteten Währungskorb bestehend aus of US dollar, euro, Swiss franc, yuan, Indian rupee, British pound, and Australian dollar zeigt .... Passend hierzu hat die Wirtschaftswoche ein Interview mit dem Autor der Studie in der aktuellen Ausgabe....

In GOLD We Trust / Special Report Erste Group June 2010

PDF Version

&

Slideshow Version

After Dumping 1.300 Tonnes Of GOLD Close To The Bottom During 2000-2005 The Swiss National Bank Makes A U-Turn.....

Nice timing..... Last sale March 2005.......Almost as "good" as Gordon Brown

Da kann man in Sachen Timing nur noch gratulieren..... Der letzte Verkauf ging im März 2005 über die Bühne.....Fast so genial wie einst Gordon Brown

Make sure you click through the SNB presentation from 2005 & see the chart on page 11 with all the sales details..... Judging from the title of the presentation it´s probably time for a less "euphoric" update........ ;-)

Empfehle allen die Präsentation der SNB aus dem Jahre 2005 und insbesondere ab die Charts ab Seite 11 .......Wenn man sich den Titel der Präsentation so betrachtet dürfte es höchste Zeit für eine "Neuinterpretation" sein.....;-)

SNB Gold Sales – Lessons and Experiences

The Swiss National Bank completed its gold selling program of 1300 tonnes on March 30, 2005

Several hundred percent GOLD price & FX reserves increase later.....

Einige hundert Prozent GOLDpreisanstieg & Fremdwährungsreserven später......

FT Alphaville

A look through the FX reserve data shows that much of the fall can be accounted for by an increase in gold holdings. The SNB’s gold holdings at market value went from 39.1bn to 45bn showing an increase of 5.9bn (gold measured in CHF terms was actually down by 4.8% during June).

Thus instead of providing an indication of the SNB’s intervention stance, what we have is interesting insight into the SNB’s portfolio allocation which interestingly is showing a bias toward holding gold

In Fiat Money We Do Not Trust "Chinese Edition"

Perfect follow up on In Fiat Money We Do Not Trust ... I think it´s safe to assume that China will be a net buyer of GOLD for some time to come......Especially when you consider the tiny FX to GOLD Reserves Ratio from the Central Bank......

Paßt hervorragend zu In Fiat Money We Do Not Trust .... Denke man kann ohne Übertreibung sagen das China bzw die Chinesen auf Sicht der nächsten Jahre sicher zu den Nettokäufern von GOLD gehören werden.....Gilt besonders wenn man sich das aktuelle Verhältnis der Fremdwährungen zu GOLD der Chinesischen Notenbank ansieht.....



H/T The Mess That Greenspan Made

I just wanted to add that it was illegal to buy GOLD as an investment vehicle in China for decades and with negative real interest rates & very few alternatives this kind of "GOLD FEVER" is probably less surprising...Since Greece has made headlines here in Germany the same store would have been almost as packed in Hamburg or Munich ;-)

Looks like Sorros knows this chart and wants to frontrun the "ultimate bubble".... Otherwise the 100% increase of his GOLD investment would make little sense.......

Ergänzend sollte man wissen das es in China bis vor kurzem verboten gewesen ist GOLD für Investmentzwecke zu erwerben und das es dank der seit Jahren notorisch negativen realen Guthabenzinsen & fehlender Alternativen nicht weiter verwunderlich ist das solche Läden so prosperieren....Seit Griechenland in Deutschland die Schlagzeilen beherrscht bin ich mir sicher das ein identischer Laden in Hamburg oder München ähnlich erfolgreich wäre.. ;-)

Sieht ganz so aus als wenn Sorros diesen Chart in Verbindung mit dem "ultimativen Bubble" vor Augen hat... Ansonsten würde es wenig Sinn machen das er sein GOLD Investment inzwischen verdoppelt hat.......

Gold Report China H/T ZH

The following chart won´t hurt their appetite for GOLD either......

Der nachfolgende Chart dürfte den Appetit in Sachen GOLD nicht gerade mindern.....

RBS on central banks’ underwater EUR positions FT Alphaville

Because over half the reserve accumulation in this period took place in the last 3 years, Chinese acquisition of reserves has been at relatively high EUR/USD levels. There is no data in the public domain on how much of China’s purchases were in EUR, but presumably diversification to lower the share of USD holdings may have pushed EUR purchases to close to half of all acquired reserves, and a majority of these purchases are well ‘out the money’.

The chart above shows that as much as 77% of Chinese reserves were accumulated at levels above EUR/USD 1.25. This does not discriminate between EUR purchases and USD purchases.

In Fiat Money We Do Not Trust

Nice addition to Gold...The Ultimate Triple-A Asset . If you are still not in the GOLD camp & "stunned" by the recent price action you really should give the link a chance..... Especially if you think GOLD is a bubble...... I think it´s more important than ever that a prudent asset allocation should at least have "some" GOLD exposure.......Doesn´t mean you have to do the "SPROTT","PAULSON" or "KAPLAN"......

Passt perfekt zu Gold...The Ultimate Triple-A Asset . Denke jeder der bisher die Preisbewegung beim Gold mit ungläubigem Staunen betrachtet sollte sich den Link zwingend zu Gemüte führen.... Gilt besonders für alle die ( oftmals seit Jahren ) im "GOLD IS A BUBBLE" Lager zu finden sind......... Ich bin mehr denn je der Meinung das jede vernünftige Portfolio Strukturierung zumindest "etwas" mit GOLD zu tun haben sollte.....Man muß ja nicht gleich den "SPROTT", "KAPLAN" oder "PAULSON" machen.....

H/T Wall Street Follies

The image from Wall Street Follies is well over 10 years old and an updated version would obviously include "QUNATITIVE EASING" aka "PRINTING MONEY"..... ;-)

Der Cartoon von Wall Street Follies ist deutlich über 10 Jahre alt..... Eine aktuelle Version würde sicher die Wörter "QUANTITIVE EASING" bzw "PRINTING PRESS" beinhalten..... ;-)

David Rosenberg ZH

Gold has broken out to the upside even as the U.S. dollar has done likewise on the back of a renewed flight-to-safety bid. What this means, of course, is that gold has managed to hit new highs even as, (i) the U.S. dollar has risen, which means gold is breaking out against all major currencies; and, (ii) other industrial commodities, such as oil and copper, have slumped from their recent highs.

So what this all means is that gold is no longer being considered as part of a resource complex that is outperforming the segment but is increasingly being viewed as a currency of its own.

Gold is a hedge against instability of all kinds — don’t think for a second that deflation does not engender instability whether it be financial, economic or political. To be sure, gold is also a hedge against inflation — but that is going to come much, much later and will be the icing on the cake.

Totally agree on the his deflation / inflation view & timeline....

Stimme zu 100% mit der Deflations / Inflationszeitachse überein....

In Fiat Money We Do Not Trust FT Alphaville

....the price of gold is rising against every major currency, not just the embattled euro.

Gregg Gibbs : "If the market won’t buy the government bonds, the central banks have to. There is no other choice. The alternative is just too damaging for the economy to contemplate. If the central banks don’t buy the debt, then governments are forced into a budget surplus (a surplus is required to cover interest payments on existing debt).

Imagine the carnage if major economies were forced from double digit deficits to surplus, you are talking Great Depression type scenario or worse."

Even though inflation is yet to break out, the price of gold is telling us that this threat is very real over the longer term. People rightly so do not trust fiat money anymore.

Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian via Felix Salmon

I am inclined [to warn] against the long-term implications of additional steps to turn monetary authorities (with revolving balance sheets) into fiscal agencies (with more permanent exposure to dubious assets).

An even larger-scale use of central bank balance sheets, if it were to materialize, would provide only a temporary respite, and the collateral damage and unintended consequences would be serious, including the impact on inflationary expectations.

Welcome to the OECD debt trap George "Minsky" Magnus via FT Alphaville

There is little on offer in the underlying details of most governments’ deficit and debt arithmetic moreover that would suggest these debt ratios are about to peak and then decline to more manageable levels in the period ahead.

Indeed on current policy settings the evidence suggests that debt-to-GDP ratios will continue to climb.

The reasons are two-fold and relate to conventional textbook definitions of a ‘debt-trap1’

The first reason is that most governments will still be running a deficit on their cycle-adjusted primary budget balance in 2011 – the budget balance excluding interest payments that would appear if the economy was operating at full capacity.

The second reason concerns the relatively high real borrowing costs that governments are confronting at present, partly a function of low levels of inflation and – for some economies – the increasing premium that investors have been demanding to hold their sovereign debt. The ‘effective’ real borrowing rates for most OECD governments last year on their accumulated debt position was north of 3 percentage points (see charts below). For some economies it was north of 4 percentage points. Against an underlying backdrop where potential growth rates for most OECD economies are probably south of 2% and for many closer to 1.5%,this is deeply concerning.

Bill Gross WaPo

"In order to pay the interest and the bill when it comes due, we'll simply have to issue more IOUs. That, to me, is Ponzi-like," Gross said. "It's a game that can never be finished."

AMEN.....

Hinde Capital - ECB the European Commisssion's Whore May 2010

H/T ZH

Debasing the ECB’s Balance Sheet Hussman via Tim

A “sterilized intervention” is one where the euros created through the purchase
of distressed Euro-area debt will also be absorbed by selling other assets from
the ECB’s balance sheet

Therefore, we are fundamentally promising to debase the quality of our balance sheet, by exchanging higher quality Euro-area debt with lower-quality debt of countries that are ultimately likely to default.”.

Looks like even Hussman is too otimistioc when it comes to the ECB & "sterilisation"......

Beim Anblick des nächsten Links muß man leider sagen das wie zu befürcvhten war selbst Hussman beim Thema EZB und "Sterilisation" noch zu optimistisch ist....

Sterilised and scandalised FT Alphaville

But here’s the key bit from the ECB’s statement:

Fixed term deposits held with the Eurosystem are eligible as collateral for the Eurosystem’s credit operations.

Which means the ECB’s govt bond purchases will be offset for a full week — until the banks can repo the fixed term deposits at things like the Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO). What liquidity the ECB takes away with one hand, via the term deposits, it gives in unlimited amounts with the other.

JP Morgan’s David Mackie

In the event, there was less symbolism than we expected . . .

what the ECB is doing is potentially far more worrying. The ECB is now purchasing the government debt of sovereigns whose solvency is in question: neither the Bank of England nor the Federal Reserve did that

"CENTRAL BANKSTERS".....;-)

Gold...The Ultimate Triple-A Asset

This is a perfect follow up on Eric Sprott Still Makes A Lot Of Sense...... ( !!! ) and shows that if you would eliminate the "Enron-Esque Accounting" probably 90% percent of all sovereign ratings are more than a little bit inflated...... UPDATE: Timing of the post could have been worse..... See end of the post.....

Die perfekte Ergänzung zu Eric Sprott Still Makes A Lot Of Sense...... ( !!! ) die eindrucksvoll aufzeigt das wenn man die "Enron-Esque Bilanzierung" miteinbeziehen würde wohl knapp 90% aller Staatsratings zum Teil erheblich "inflationiert" sind..... UPDATE: Timing des Postings hätte schlechter sein können... Siehe Ende des Postings....

Eric Sprott: Weakness Begets Weakness: from Banks to Sovereigns to Banks via ZH

The rating agencies’ ranking of the United States is even more disconnected from reality. To believe that the US sets the benchmark for sovereign debt credit ratings is preposterous.

While we have written ad nauseam about the excessive debt issuance by the United States, we found a recent update written by United States Government Accountability Office (GAO) to be particularly instructive. The update noted the US’s budget deficit equivalent to 9.9% of GDP in 2009 - the largest since 1945 - and stated that without significant policy changes the US government would soon face an "unsustainable growth in debt". This was not news to us.

It goes on to state, however, that using reasonable assumptions, "roughly 93 cents of every dollar of federal revenue will be spent on the major entitlement programs and net interest costs by 2020." This is news!

In less than ten years, using reasonable assumptions, there will essentially be no money left to run the US government - 93% of all tax revenues the US government collects will go to pay social security, Medicare, Medicaid and the interest costs on their national debt.

This implies no money left over for defense, homeland security, welfare, unemployment benefits, education or anything else we associate with the normal business of government. And the US government is rated AAA!?

Speaking of Rating Agencies :-)! ....

Da wir gerade bei den Rating Agenturen :-)! sind....

In our view it’s time for investors to acknowledge sovereign risk. The ratings agencies can opine all they want, but it seems clear to us that the only true AAA asset to protect your wealth is gold.

The risk inherent to investors, of course, is what happens when the bond market begins to realize and react to this new level of risk.

Banking To Debt Crisis Roundabout GLG Partners via FT Alphaville

Bond Traders Declare Inflation Dead After Yields Fall

The bond vigilantes who punished governments for profligate spending in past years have gone into hiding.

Sovereign bonds yield an average 2.385 percent, about the same as a year ago and below the average of 3.08 percent in 2008 when the credit market seizure led investors to seek the safety of government debt, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data.

The cost to borrow is steady even though the amount of bonds in the index that includes nations from the U.S. to Germany and Japan has grown to $17.4 trillion from $13.4 trillion two years ago.

SUPERB RISK/REWARD........ ;-)

Scheint mir ein ausgewogenes Chance/Risikoprofil zu sein..... ;-)

Bob Janjuah: "We Are Trapped In Some Sort Of Horrendous Keynesian/Monetarists' Nightmare...." via ZH

We are trapped in some horrendous Keynesian/monetarist nightmare, where policymakers, aided/abetted/advised by their buddies in the media, in the lobbyist cabal and in financial system, have YET AGAIN decided to go down the route which merely delays the problem/pushes it down the road, but which virtually guarantees that when the NEXT bubble collapses (I assume it will be the Global Government Debt/Bond Bubble and/or the Global Fiat Money/Paper Money/FX Bubble), there is NO pleasant way back.

Bill Gross WaPo

"In order to pay the interest and the bill when it comes due, we'll simply have to issue more IOUs. That, to me, is Ponzi-like," Gross said. "It's a game that can never be finished."

Read this twice... Bill "The Bond King" Gross from PIMCO is hinting the obvious.....Glad that i didn´t have to bring PONZI into the mix myself....... All this should make all the "GOLD BUBBLE TALK" even more "credible.... ;-)

Das letzte Zitat von Bill "The Bond King" Gross, der ja mittels PIMCO bekanntlich der weltweit größte Investor in Anleihen ist, sollte zur Sicherheit lieber zweimal gelesen lesen werden........Bin dankbar das ich PONZI nicht selber ins Spiel bringen mußte.....Dieser "grundsoliden" Fundamentaldaten geben speziell all denen die noch immer nicht genug von der "GOLDBLASE" bekommen können sicher noch mehr "Nahrung"... ;-)

"GOLD BUBBLE CHART" ;-) from Todd Harrison / Minyanville via Pragmatic Capitalist

I highly recommend to read the entire links & to subscribe to the free Sprott Asset Management Newsletter.... No wonder the IMF has just Superzised Their "Backup Rescue Facility" By Half A Trillion ( no typo ) for "Contribution To Global Financial Stability"......

In dem Link sind noch etliche andere unangenehme Weisheiten speziell im Hinblick auf Griechenland. Empfehle daher sich die kompletten Links etwas genauer durchzulesen sowie den kostenlosen Sprott Asset Management Newsletter zu abonnieren....Kein Wunder das "vorsorglich" der IMF die Mittel zur "Stabilisierung" der Sorgenkinder mal eben still und heimlich auf 500 Mrd $ verzehnfacht hat ( kein Tipfehler )....

UPDATE:

S&P cuts Portugal’s ratings two notches to A- FT Alphaville

S&P cuts Greece ratings to junk status MW

S&P Downgrades Spain To AA On "Risks To Budgetary Position", Outlook Negative ZH

Eric Sprott Still Makes A Lot Of Sense......

I admit, i´m biased.... My views on GOLD, Sovereign Debt,China, Banks & Markets are almost identical.... UPDATE: After todays really "shocking" & "surprising" GOLDMAN news i assume the "complacency" is now at least for a fews days over... So far this has been the perfect excuse to take profits after almost 50 days since the S&P 500 has had a pullback (one-day or multi-day) of 1%....The "Dumb Money" indicator is also hitting extreme levels... As a bull this won´t give me much comfort.... Monday will show if this in context of the bigger picture irrelevant news has the potential to be the trigger to finally play this market from the short site or if all the "famous" money on the sideline will buy the dip ....Overall i hope that this will give the "VOLCKER RULE" & a much tougher regulation a much needed boost....

Muß zugeben das ich da etwas voreingenommen bin..... Meine Meinung zum Thema GOLD,Sovereign Debt,China, Banks & den Märkten unterscheidet sich nur unwesentlich..... UPDATE: Nach der heutigen "schockierenden" GOLDMAN Meldung dürfte die grenzenlose Sorglosigkeit dürfte zumindest für ein paar Tage vorbei sein.... Bisher sind das lediglich Gewinnmitnahmen nachdem der S&P 500 fast 50 Handelstage keinen Tagesverlust von größer als 1% ausgewiesen hat....Zudem notiert der "Dumb Money" Indikator in extrem luftiger Höhe....Als Bulle würde mich diese Tatsachen nur noch nervöser machen.....Der Montag dürfte zeigen ob diese bei Betrachtung der in den anderen Links aufgeführten massiven Probleme eigentlich nicht wirklich wichtige Meldung das Potential den extrem heissgelaufenen Risikoappetit umzukehren & den Markt nach etlichen Monaten endlich auch für Shorts interessant machen oder aber ob das "berühmt berüchtige" Money on the Sidelines diesen "massiven" Rückschlag zum kaufen nutzt..... Bleibt in jedem Fall zu hoffen das die bereits totgesagte "VOLCKER RULE" und eine wirklich "harte" Regulierung dadurch den dringend benötigten Schub bekommt.....



H/T Jesse

He really puts his money where his mouth is.....75 percent related to GOLD, SILVER & Mining is almost unheard of & combined with his attempted & rejected bid to buy the remaining 191.3 tonnes from the IMF qualifies him for the titel "GOLD BUG OF THE YEAR".... Let´s hope his "guaranteed" physical GOLD trust ( not an ETF ) will be a running success ( UPDATE: Sprott Physical Gold Trust Announces Follow-On Offering of 18,000,000 Trust Units !! )..... This could make the dominant GOLD ETF´s quite "nervous".... The following script from Sprott is taken from an earlier post called Scarcity. That Is The Answer To The Question “Why Gold?” End Of Story ! highlighting why guys like Rosenberg & Tudor think that GOLD longterm ( short term i´m a little cautious / worried, but timing in probably one of the strongest bull market out there is very difficult UPDATE: possible GOLDMAN / PAULSON impact Net Gold Commercial Positions Surge To Multi-Month High Short Exposure) might not be such a bad idea.....

Bei 75 % GOLD, SILBER & Minengewichtung wird allerdings selbst mir schwindlig und zusammen mit seinem Vorstoss die vom IMF zum Verkauf gestellten 190 Tonnen Gold komplett zu kaufen dürfte es locker für den Titel "GOLD BUG DES JAHRES" reichen.... Drücke beide Daumen das der mit garantiert physischen GOLD hinterlegte Trust ( kein EFT ) ein Erfolg wird ( UPDATE: Sprott Physical Gold Trust Announces Follow-On Offering of 18,000,000 Trust Units !! )... Das könnte bei den vorherrschenden GOLD ETF´s doch leichte Nervosität auslösen.....Das nachfolgende Skript ist ebenfalls von Sprott und dem Posting Scarcity. That Is The Answer To The Question “Why Gold?” End Of Story ! entnommen. Wie der Titel schon sagt sind darin einige Gründe von Rosenberg & Tudor aufgeführt warum GOLD längerfristig ( Bin kurzfristig eher skeptisch, die Vergangenheit aber hat gezeigt das sich das Timing im vielleicht intaktesten Bullenmarkt überhaupt als fast unmöglich herausgestellt hat UPDATE: mögliche GOLDMAN / PAULSON Auswirkung Net Gold Commercial Positions Surge To Multi-Month High Short Exposure ) keine ganz schlechte Idee ist.....

Sprott Oct 2009 Comment

H/T ZH

Glitch In The Matrix......

The "Wall Of Worry" is getting steeper...... Should the spreads remain elevated even after Greece has ""activated" the EU/IMF rescue package i think we could see the VIX spike to over 17.... ;-)

"Schockierend" .... ;-) Sollten jetzt selbst nach Aktivierung des EU/IMF Programmes die Auschläge nicht "merklich"sinken dürften mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit die nächste Stufe der Krise gezündet werden....

The Greek debt merry-go-round goes round again FT Alphaville

The 10-year Greek bond – German bund spread widened to 426 basis points on Thursday.

That’s up from 406bps on Wednesday — and nearing an 11-year high

Keep in mind that the bailouts are not to rescue Greece ( see Foreigners Holding 75 % of Greece’s Current Debt Stock & Bank Exposure To PIIGS / Chart ) .....

With everybody "Too Small To Fail" the prospects for a "GOLD-BUG" could be worse... ;-)

Nur zur Erinnerung, die teilweise wahnwitzigen Konstruktionen sind nur auf den ersten Blick zur Rettung der Griechen gedacht ( siehe Foreigners Holding 75 % of Greece’s Current Debt Stock & Bank Exposure To PIIGS / Chart ) ....

Da inzwischen weltweit die oberste Maxime selbst bei aussichtslosen Fällen "Too Small to Fail" ist dürften sich auf absehbare Zeit die Aussichten für einen "GOLD-BUG" nicht gerade verschlechtern....;-)

UPDATE: Fixing the Matrix........

IMF Prepares For Global Cataclysm, Expands Backup Rescue Facility By Half A Trillion For "Contribution To Global Financial Stability" ZH



EXTEND & PRETEND .......

Gold, Silver, the CFTC, MSM & Conspiracy Theories

Make sure you read the excellent summary (!!!) via Tim on his Blog "The Mess That Greenspade Made" covering every angle from last week’s hearing by the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission)....

Empfehle allen die ein Interesse in Gold haben sich die erstklassige Zusammenfassung (!!!) via Tim vom Blog "The Mess That Greenspan Made" im Zusammenhang mit den Anhörungen der CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) inklusive der darin enthaltenen Links aufmerksam durchzulesen.....

Despite the "remarkable" news from the CFTC hearing GOLD is hitting new highs in almost every currency out there & the inevitable bubble talk is heating up once more..... I can spot exactly one intact long term bull market in the following chart....

Trotz der "bemerkenswerten" Erkenntnissen der CFTC Anhörung notiert GOLD in praktisch jeder Währung auf neuen Rekordständen. Fast unvermeidlich das der "Bubble Talk" mal wieder die Runde macht.... In dem nachfolgenden Chart erkenne ich ( obwohl kein Chartexperte ) genau einen langfristig intakten Bullenmarkt...

H/T Todd Harrison / Minyanville via Pragmatic Capitalist

Tim sums it up / formuliert es treffend

There is widespread agreement that something needs to be done to limit trading position sizes in energy markets because, when Goldman Sachs or some hedge fund start driving the price of oil to $120 or $150 a barrel, then gasoline prices surge past $4 a gallon and, not only is this bad for the economy, but, people are understandably miffed and they start complaining to their Congressmen.

But, if, as Maguire charges, big banks like HSBC and JP Morgan use these same kinds of concentrated positions on the short side for gold and silver in an attempt to keep prices down amid growing troubles in a world full of paper money, it would seem inconsistent (as a minimum) to not take action here as well.

AMEN!

Disclosure : "GOLD-BUG" ;-)

Payback Time : State Debt Woes Grow Too Big to Camouflage

Fits perfectly to this post.....

Passt hervorragend zu diesem Posting.....

State Debt Woes Grow Too Big to Camouflage NYT

California, New York and other states are showing many of the same signs of debt overload that recently took Greece to the brink — budgets that will not balance, accounting that masks debt, the use of derivatives to plug holes, and armies of retired public workers who are counting on benefits that are proving harder and harder to pay.

Joshua Rauh, an economist at Northwestern University, and Robert Novy-Marx of the University of Chicago, recently recalculated the value of the 50 states’ pension obligations the way the bond markets value debt. They put the number at $5.17 trillion.

After the $1.94 trillion set aside in state pension funds was subtracted, there was a gap of $3.23 trillion — more than three times the amount the states owe their bondholders.

I highly recommend to read the entire NYT link..... Some pretty sobering details how desperate some states are already acting to mask the shortfalls.....

Empfehle wärmstens den kompletten NYT Link zu lesen..... Einige ziemlich verzweifelte Versuche um die aktuellen Lücken möglichst "kreativ" zu stopfen......

Summary via Mish

• New Hampshire took $110 million from a medical malpractice insurance pool to "balance its budget". The State Supreme Court said put it back.
• Colorado tried to grab a $500 million surplus from Pinnacol Assurance, a state workers’ compensation insurer that was privatized in 2002.
• Hawaii went to a four-day school week.
• Connecticut tried to issue its own accounting rules.
• California is making companies pay 70 percent of their 2010 taxes by June 15.
• New Jersey and other states make their budgets look balanced by pushing debts into the future. While Greece used a type of foreign-exchange trade to hide debt, the derivatives popular with states and cities have been interest-rate swaps, contracts to hedge against changing rates.

Fitch Downgrades Illinois and Warns of Further Actions as Budget Gap Widens Jesse

Illinois is financially the fifth largest US state with a 2008 GDP of approximately $633 Billion.

To put this in perspective, the 2008 GDP for the nation of Greece was approximately $357 Billion.

The usual political reflex is already underway.... Blame the speculators......

Der übliche politische Reflex ist einmal mehr bereits aktiviert.....Stoppt die Spekulanten....

The CDS inquisition, California edition FT Alphaville

It was only a matter of time. California — following in the footsteps of Ireland and Iceland, Greece, Spain, and politicians of all stripes and nationalities — has called for an examination of credit default swaps sold against its bonds.

California Treasurer Bill Lockyer has sent a letter to six big banks that underwrite the state’s municipal bond sales, asking what the banks’ role may be in also selling credit default swaps on Californian debt

The Muni Market is so far not worried ( surpirse, surprise ) that this house of cards will face any difficulties at least in the near term.........

Wenn man sich den Muni Chart so ansieht hat dieser ( welch Überraschung ) die beste aller Welten eingepreist....

Bespoke

Investing in municipal bonds is a paradox for investors right now. On one hand, they are attractive because of their tax-free status since taxes are expected to rise. On the other hand, with the economy as bad as it is, municipalities could come under duress and be at risk of default.

Based on the performance of the National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) in recent months, it looks like investors are weighing the tax advantage more heavily against default risk. As shown below, MUB is up 14.4% from its lows last year, and it is trading near its all-time highs since the ETF was released in 2007.

The chart above is even more "impressive" when you add the following story to the mix.....

Der Chart ist noch "eindrucksvoller" wenn man die nachfolgende Geschichte miteinbezieht.....

Bond insurer blow-up fallout, Las Vegas Monorail edition FT Alphaville

March 29 (Bloomberg) — Holders of bonds sold by the Las Vegas Monorail Co. likely won’t get their next payment due July 1 because the insurer, Ambac Financial Group Inc., won’t cover them.

The monorail, linking the city’s casinos, seeks to reorganize under Chapter 11 bankruptcy and has minimal funds to cover its next scheduled debt disbursement of $9.6 million in July, Wells Fargo, the trustee for the bonds, said in a March 26 announcement. While Ambac guarantees payments of $1.2 billion for the monorail, its obligation has been transferred by Wisconsin insurance regulators to a segregated account that temporarily can’t honor claims, according to the filing.

The Las Vegas Monorail example highlights what really matters about the dire state of the bond insurance industry – municipalities, and muni bondholders, are going to get hurt.

The halt marks the first time that a regulator has raised the possibility that Ambac, which insures $256 billion of municipal bonds, may be unable to pay current municipal bond insurance policy claims to preserve reserves for future obligations

Got GOLD ?

Foreigners Holding 75 % of Greece’s Current Debt Stock

One of the main reasons why the "Smoke & Mirrors" ( excellent link via Yves Smith / NC ) Greece "Rescue" & a hidden bailout ( see the ECB U-TURN My Big Fat Greek Collateral Conversion ) has been orchestrated..... It´s still the number one goal to bail out banks & insurers ( see PIIGS Claims On European Banks: $1.5 Trillion; France Most On Hook In PIIGS Implosion & Ireland Stunned To Uncover "Truly Shocking" Information By Its Banks ).....Nobody is too small too fail....Sarcastically one can argue that in hindsight it seems the Lehman "incident" was one of the best things that could have happened to the industry......

Denke das wir hier einen der Hauptgründe für den "Smoke & Mirrors" ( fantastische Zusammenfassung via Naked Capitalism ) Rettungsversuch bzw die indirekten ( siehe die 180 Grad Drehung der EZB My Big Fat Greek Collateral Conversion ) Bailoutbemühungen sehen.... Es geht wie leider immer noch darum Banken und Versicherungen vor möglichen Schäden zu "beschützen" ( siehe PIIGS Claims On European Banks: $1.5 Trillion; France Most On Hook In PIIGS Implosion & Ireland Stunned To Uncover "Truly Shocking" Information By Its Banks )...... Keiner ist unwichtig genug um zu fallen...."Spitz" formuliert könnte man fast meinen das im Nachhinein Lehman für die Branche der bestmöglich anzunehmende Unfall gewesen ist......

The kindness of (bond market) strangers FT Alphaville

With foreigners already holding three quarters of Greece’s current debt stock, convincing them to buy even more becomes increasingly difficult. Here’s what Deutsche’s Gillian Edgeworth says:

"Euroland insists that the Greek sovereign continues to access the market if possible. The sovereign issuer will hope that foreigners remain keen buyers of bonds, though foreigners already hold 75% of the total debt stock.

In the absence of further foreign buying, local institutions will only likely be able to absorb government issuance if domestic banks continue to draw off [European Central Bank] liquidity facilities in size."

Lucky, then, that the ECB decided to revise its acceptance rules for the collateral pledged by Greek banks on Friday

Too bad for the "architects" that so far the spreads havn´t narrowed in a meaningful way.....;-)

Leicht problematisch für die Bailoutakrobaten lediglich das sich zumindest momentan die Spreads nicht wesentlich "eingeengt" haben...... ;-)

Greek debt – spreading like it’s 1999 FT Alphaville

It looks like Hellenic Republic bond spreads over German bunds are back at 1999 levels — when Greece first attempted to join the eurozone but failed because it didn’t meet the required economic criteria

No wonder Gold has been hitting a series of new ATH in € terms ...

Da verwundert es wenig das Gold seit Wochen eine Serie von neues Allzeithoch auf € Basis markiert.....

Another "Reassuring" Sovereign Debt Chart........

Almost as "impressive" as this chart...... Taken from Dylan Grice Discusses When To Take Profits On Gold: Hint - Not For A Long While via ZH UPDATE: Speaking of Portugal and sovereign risk: a downgrade

Fast so "eindrucksvoll" wie dieser Chart...... Mehr zum Chart gibt es in Dylan Grice Discusses When To Take Profits On Gold: Hint - Not For A Long While via ZH UPDATE: Speaking of Portugal and sovereign risk: a downgrade

A reduction of this magnitude without a depression and social "tensions" is highly unlikely ...... Especially when the numbers are based on "realistic" forecasts that even would make "Wall Street Finest" proud.....

Eine Reduzierung in dieser Größenordnung ist ohne eine gefühlte Depression sowie starken sozialen "Spannungen" nicht vorstellbar..... Besonders vertrauenerweckend ist zudem das die Prognosen auf gewohnt konservativen Annahmen basieren die selbst Wall Street Finest blaß aussehen lassen..... ;-)

via NYT

This explains why GOLD Is Not A $ Story........ Wouldn´t also surprise me if charts like this won´t be seen as "unusual" any more down the road......

Damit erklärt sich auch leicht warum GOLD keinesfalls lediglich eine $ Story ist........ Zudem befürchte ich insgeheim das selbst zur Zeit noch aussergewöhnliche Charts wie dieser nicht länger die absolute Ausnahme bleiben......

The following story fits perfectly.......

Die nachfolgende Meldung passt da hervorragend ins Gesamtbild......

Obama Pays More Than Buffett as U.S. Risks AAA Rating

March 22 (Bloomberg) — The bond market is saying that it’s safer to lend to Warren Buffett than Barack Obama. Two-year notes sold by the billionaire’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in February yield 3.5 basis points less than Treasuries of similar maturity, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Procter & Gamble Co., Johnson & Johnson and Lowe’s Cos. debt also traded at lower yields in recent weeks, a situation former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. chief fixed-income strategist Jack Malvey calls an “exceedingly rare” event in the history of the bond market.

Reassuring........ At least the worldwide banking system is now "well capitalised" and not in danger of needing another bailout....... ;-)

Sehr vertrauenserweckend.... Immerhin sind ja inzwischen die Banken weltweit "well capitalised" und dürften die Sanierung der Staashauhalte auf Jahre hinaus nicht weiter belasten..... ;-)

GOLD Is Not A $ Story........

Nice addtition to an earlier posting.....

Nette Ergänzung zu einem früheren Posting.....

Barrons

Unrelated..... ;-) / Ohne jeden Bezug..... ;-)

8 reasons Wall Street loses another 20% in this decade Paul B. Farrell

.... the past decade. Wall Street lost trillions, lost 11% of your money. Adjusted for inflation, Wall Street lost 20% of your money.

Gold In € Terms Hits Record High 816.33 €/OZ

Perfect fit to earlier posts ( see here & here )...... Wouldn´t surprise me if over time GOLD will print new ATH in almost every other currency .... UPDATE: U.S. Economy Grinds To Halt As Nation Realizes Money Just A Symbolic, Mutually Shared Illusion The Onion ;-)!!

Paßt perfekt zu diesem & diesem Posting.....Würde mich nicht überraschen wenn GOLD auf Sicht in fast allen Währungen neue Allzeithochs markieren wird..... UPDATE: U.S. Economy Grinds To Halt As Nation Realizes Money Just A Symbolic, Mutually Shared Illusion - Vorsicht (REAL) Satire... ;-)!!

H/T FT Alphaville

Gold in euro terms hits record high 816.33 euro/oz Reuters

Euro-priced gold extended earlier gains to hit a record high 816.35 euros an ounce on Tuesday, as investors spooked by fears over the fiscal health of peripheral euro zone economies bought the metal as a haven from risk.

Cannot wait for the "Bubble Talk" to heat up again..... ;-)

Da werden einige der Skeptiker demnächst erneut den "Bubble Talk" bemühen müssen..... ;-)

As A Contrarian........

the following story is great.....Clearly a sign of a bubble when the most successful hedge fund manger is unable to collect more than $ 100 million inflows into his funds solely related to GOLD..;-)

Especially when the fundamentals against GOLD are now dramatically improving even outside the "rock solid" US on a daily basis.. Must be the reason why the "Sovereign Misery Index" is looking just fine.....;-)

Wenn der erfolgreichste Fondsmanager der letzten Jahre es nicht schafft mehr als 100 Mio $ für seinen GOLDFOND einzusammeln muß man klar zum Schluß kommen das sich GOLD in einer Blase befindet...;-)

Gilt umso mehr, da die Fundamentaldaten ( u.a. gesunde Banken & Staatsfinanzen.. )die gegen GOLD sprechen ja, wie gerade momentan recht anschaulich selbst in der gängigen Presse präsentiert, tagtäglich nicht nur in den gewohnt ""soliden" USA, sondern besonders für € Anleger besser werden....Ebenfalls wunderbar am "Sovereign Misery Index" zu erkennen....;-)

H/T Todd Harrison / Minyanville via Pragmatic Capitalist

Midas Touch Lost? Paulson Hits Hurdles in Gold Fund WSJ

It took John Paulson months to convince investors that housing would crumble.

Now it's taking him awhile to get them excited about gold, his latest passion

When Mr. Paulson's Paulson & Co. late last year announced it was starting a hedge fund to make a big gold bet, many on Wall Street expected investors to line up. Paulson & Co. scored about $20 billion in profits in 2007 and 2008 wagering against subprime mortgages and financial companies. It then bought financial shares last year to add more gains.

Some gold traders expected Mr. Paulson's new fund, launched Jan. 1, to raise billions of dollars and even help push gold higher when it started buying this year.

That hasn't happened. Despite months of investor meetings, Mr. Paulson has raised $90million or so for his new gold fund, according to people close to the matter. Even the $250 million that Mr. Paulson himself placed in the fund hasn't persuaded many investors to get on board.

Maybe he should do a roadshow among European investors....... ;-)

Empfehle zur Not mal ne Road Show durch Europa........ ;-)

Mr. Paulson has told investors that his gold strategy is a long-term one that will reap rewards over the next few years as the value of leading currencies drop

UPDATE:

A STERN REALITY CHECK FOR GOLD NAYSAYERS PC

Furthermore, the US dollar doesn’t have to decline for Gold to do well. Did you know that since the very end of 2004, the US$ is flat but Gold is up 143%? Since July 20, 2007, Gold is up 56% while the dollar is flat. Since early September 2008, Gold is up 35%, while the dollar is up 1%.

CLSA’s Christopher Wood FT Alphaville

A sovereign debt crisis in the West is coming sooner or later though it is probably not right now. This is why the recent correction in gold is an opportunity to buy more bullion and more gold mining shares.

As a German / European investor ( not speculator ) i´ve to repeat myself that it is always important to follow GOLD priced in €..... Unfortunately none of the so called German "business" papers / media takes care of this not insignificant fact.....See this Handelsblatt example in which several German "experts" discussing & charting the recent "correction" in GOLD denominated in $...

Auch auf die Gefahr hin das ich mich wiederhole gerade als Deutscher / Europäischer Investor ( nicht Spekulant ) ist einzig und allein der GOLDpreis in € relevant.... Mit etwas Glück findet man diesen auf den hinteren Seiten im Kleingedruckten der deutschen Fachpresse.....Verweise mal exemplarisch auf Taumelnder Euro zieht Goldpreis mit nach unten vom Handelblatt....

The fundamentals support our view as the financial crisis is entering the most bullish phase for Gold. The sovereign debt crisis, which really began in Iceland, will plague Europe this year and eventually spread to the UK and US by early 2011. Nations have no other choice but to monetize their growing obligations while trying to stimulate their economies with deficit spending and near 0% interest rates. It is a perfect storm for Gold

Chart Net Speculative Gold Long Positions When Gold Was Above $ 1.200

Yesterday / Gestern 222,282 net long gold contracts

To be honest i´m a little surprised that the long positions have only declined 50.000.....Hot money will lead to lots of volatility & great buying opportunities ( wouldn´t rule out something south of $ 1.000 ).... But according to Peter Boockvar this still elevated number means that "net longs in gold and silver both fell to its lowest level since Aug ‘09"

Muß gestehen das ich überrascht bin das die Longpositionen vom Hoch trotz der auf $ Basis heftiger Korrektur nur um 50.000 geschrumpft sind....Dürfte also gewohnt volatil bleiben und hoffentlich die ein oder andere Einstiegsgelegenheit ermöglichen.... Peter Boockvar weist darauf hin das die immer noch hohe Anzahl die Netto long position auf dem niedrigsten Stand seit August 2009 zurückgefallen sind.....

In Geithner We Trust.......

Oh boy......


Thanks to Drew Friedman

WSJ

"Absolutely not," Mr. Geithner said in an interview with ABC News's "This Week" when asked about the prospect of the U.S. losing its top rating. "That will never happen to this country."

Judging Geithners past "fabulous" forecasting track record i assume the downgrade is not far away....;-) Even the strongly US influenced rating agencies like Moddy´s & S&P cannot ignore the reality shown at the US National Debt Clock Real Time indefinitely.....Nobody expect them to tell the truth but at least they have to "adjust" ( as usual very very slowly ) to maintain the few percentage points of credibility left.... ;-)

Wenn man die "fantastische" Trefferquote von Geithners Prognosen berücksichtigt dürfte das Downgrade demnächst Realität werden bzw der Realität angepaßt werden.... ;-) Ein Blick auf die Us National Debt Clock Real Time dürfte es selbst den stark unter US Einfluß stehenden Ratingagenturen Moddy´s und S&P schwer machen sich zumindest den Realitäten anzunähern.... Immerhin gilt es die letzten paar verbliebenen Prozentpunkte an Glaubwürdigkeit zu verteidigen.....

UPDATE:
Famous Last Words: U.S. Will ‘Never’ Lose Aaa Debt Rating Mish
The best defense is a good offense, absolutely The Mess That Greenspan Made
USAAA forever FT / LEX


H/T Clusterstock

Got GOLD ?