Saturday, January 30, 2010

With All The "Surprising" Sovereign Debt Worries Popping Up .....

It´s probably not a bad time for another posting on GOLD.... Especially when more & more people are realizing that not only bank balance sheets have something in common with Charles Ponzi, Madoff or Enron .... For investors outside the US it is not insignificant to highlight that it is not the $ price per ounce that matters.......In Germany it is almost impossible to find the € price per ounce in the media....Even in the so called "business" papers & channels...... The history of my earlier GOLD related postings gives a hint why i think that at least a "few" percentage of every portfolio should include GOLD ....

Nachdem ja momentan die Welt "plötzlich" gemerkt hat das neben den Bankenbilanzen praktisch alle relevanten Staatshaushalte zumindest in nicht unwesentlichen Teilen etwas mit Charles Ponzi, Madoff & Enron zu tun haben, ist es mal wieder Zeit für ein Posting in Sachen GOLD..... Zudem kann es nicht schaden wenn man nochmal gesondert darauf hinweist das für alle nicht US Investoren der $ Preis je Unze irrelevant ist ist...... Leider ist es z.B. in Deutschland fast unmöglich den € Preis je Unze in den gängigen Medien zu erhaschen.... Gilt im übrigen auch für die sog. "Fachpresse" ...... ;-) Ein Blick in meine "gesammelten Werke" zum Thema Gold dürfte erklären warum ich es nicht verkehrt finde, wenn zumindest ein "kleiner" Prozentsatz des Portfolios aus Gold besteht.....

H/T Todd Harrison / Minyanville via Pragmatic Capitalist


Is gold a bubble?

As someone who has been a close observer of bubbles for the past ten years the data does not recommend that conclusion. And what makes me even more curious about this point of view is that the very people who for the most part denied the existence of the obvious bubbles in tech, housing, risk, banking and credit, even to the point of absurdity, who could not or would not see a bubble if it perched on the end of their nose, who are card carrying members of the international monied fraternity, are the most vocal in calling gold a bubble with emotional arguments lacking any fundamental data.

AMEN ;-)


Implications For Gold In The Aftermath Of The Greek Crisis BoA via ZH

Emerging market central banks (EM CB) are ever more aware that gold is really one of the few viable alternatives to the USD. Top holders of currency reserves like China, Russia or India will likely need to increase their exposure to gold over the coming months and years as the value of fiat currency reserve holdings like the USD or the EUR comes into question. The obvious problem with diversification is that there is simply not enough gold to go around. So a deterioration of Greece’s creditworthiness, even if negative for the EUR, should be supportive of gold prices in the long run, in our view.

click on image for a sharper view / auf Grafik für schärfere Version klicken

Somewhat "irritating" that suddenly even Wall Street banks are not bashing GOLD on a daily basis..... Bank of America is getting exited that some EM central banks will diversify their holdings ....I wonder if they view a diversfication of private holdings into GOLD a "Black Swan" event....After watching BofA drawing all the right conclusions they "ignore" that the same diversification effect would be true for every non central bank investor....The percentage of GOLD related investments vs Assets Under Management makes even the Chinese exposure look like "excessive"..... ;-) For more related links visit the comments

Irgendwie "ungewohnt" das plötzlich selbst Wall Street Banken nicht mehr tagtäglich Goldbashing betreiben....Bank of America führt als Argument an das die Zentralbanken in den EM Ihr Goldbestände aufstocken werden. Ich für meinen Teil denke das neben den Zentralbanken vor allem die Privaten als Käufer auftreten werden.......Selbst in dieser Matrix wird diese Möglichkeit bestenfalls ansatzweise gestreift ( obwohl die richtigen Schlußfolgeriungen getroffen werden ).. Wenn man sich das Verhältnis von Gold zu den verwalteten Vermögen ansieht erscheint selbst der Goldanteil China´s als eine starke Übergewichtung..... ;-) Mehr zum Thema gibt es in den Kommentaren....

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Blogger jmf said...

Spanish canary in the European coal mine
Rolfe Winkler / Reuters

Today Spain reported that its unemployment rate in Q4 rose to 18.8% from 17.9% in Q3. The consensus was for a rise toward 18.5%. The unemployment rate has doubled in the past two years. As seems to be typical in Europe, the unemployment [rate] is especially pronounced for young people. In Spain it’s 40%…

Cyclical forces and the €8 billion public works program pushed Spain’s deficit to around 11.2% of GDP last year according to the EC. This is almost as large as Greece’s. One key difference between the two in this context is that Spain’s debt to GDP is considerably lower than Greece, giving it perhaps greater chance to stabilize the debt/GDP ratios before they become ruinous.

8:47 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Some scary graphs included....

The Global Debt Bomb Forbes Cover Story

8:50 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Fits almost perfectly to the topic of the post..... Excellent read

Paßt wie die Faust aufs Auge.... Extrem lesenswert...

Eric Sprott On How Central Banks Are Setting The Stage For The Next Big Move In Gold ZH

The demand for paper money in its various forms has remained, in our view, surprisingly high. The public has, for the most part, been content to trust paper money and hold it in various forms (cash, money-market funds and bonds), even without any yield. Presumably, this is because it is perceived as being “safe”. Bonds continue to be viewed and treated as highly conservative and ultimately “safe” monetary
instruments. We are of the view that long-dated government bonds are one of the most speculative
asset classes commonly held today

4:39 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

The Ring of Fire

5:34 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

What a surprise.....

Watchdog: Bailouts created more risk in system

The government's response to the financial meltdown has made it more likely the United States will face a deeper crisis in the future, an independent watchdog at the Treasury Department warned.

The problems that led to the last crisis have not yet been addressed, and in some cases have grown worse

"Even if TARP saved our financial system from driving off a cliff back in 2008, absent meaningful reform, we are still driving on the same winding mountain road, but this time in a faster car,"

Graphs & Full Report ZH

8:43 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Would be great to read Roubinis response.....

QB AM vs Roubini "The New Bubble in the Barbaric Relic that is Gold

11:42 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

While i´m not recommending GOLD for trading or speculation Gekko provides a good update on charts and tecnical indicators....

The Prechter Gold "Buy" Signal Has Been Triggered ZH

3:51 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Yes, we can´t 4.0.......

Defense Analysts Blast Military Exemption to Spending Freeze HT NC

6:18 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

You know it´s bad when even Australia has this kind of liabilities underfunded.....

In almost every other G7 country we are talking about $ trillions.....

Australia Pensions Facing ‘Disaster’ on Shortfall, Study Says Bloomberg

Australia needs to increase mandatory pension contributions to 12 percent of earnings from 9 percent to ensure adequate retirement incomes, according to a finance industry study.

Workers are facing a A$695 billion ($614 billion) shortfall between what they are saving for retirement and what they will need, the Investment & Financial Services Association said yesterday. The savings gap, calculated using superannuation fund balances at June 30, 2008, has jumped 54 percent since 2004 and precedes investment losses from the global financial crisis.

The unfunded pension liabilities of Australian state governments surged 53 percent to A$74.3 billion last year, Rice Warner Actuaries said Jan. 8.

6:24 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Compared to the deficit only a mino glitch.....

A Majority Of States Are Now Insolvent: Quantifying The Disastrous Unemployment Situation ZH

12:09 PM  
Blogger jmf said...


$3.8 Trillion Budget / Interactive Chart

9:35 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Obama’s $6.3 Trillion Scam Is America’s Shame: Jonathan Weil Bloomberg

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Look through President Barack Obama’s proposed 2011 budget, and you’ll see a line calling for a $235 million increase in the Justice Department’s funding to fight financial fraud. Lucky for them, the people who wrote the budget can’t be prosecuted for cooking the government’s books.

Whether on Wall Street or in Washington, the biggest frauds often are the perfectly legal ones hidden in broad daylight. And in terms of dollars, it would be hard to top the accounting scam that Obama’s budget wonks are trying to pull off now.

The ploy here is simple. They are keeping Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac off the government’s balance sheet and out of the federal budget, along with their $1.6 trillion of corporate debt and $4.7 trillion of mortgage obligations.

8:48 PM  
Blogger jmf said...


And on bubblevision they still call the the waekness of the € a flight to "quality"...

You cannot make this up.....

Taking apart the federal budget / Graphic Washington Post

2:17 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Fortune Editor Suggests That the US Treasury Will Have to Start Defaulting On Its Bonds Jesse

1:11 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Update Gold Chart

9:07 PM  
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8:22 PM  

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