Wednesday, February 10, 2010

As A Contrarian........

the following story is great.....Clearly a sign of a bubble when the most successful hedge fund manger is unable to collect more than $ 100 million inflows into his funds solely related to GOLD..;-)

Especially when the fundamentals against GOLD are now dramatically improving even outside the "rock solid" US on a daily basis.. Must be the reason why the "Sovereign Misery Index" is looking just fine.....;-)

Wenn der erfolgreichste Fondsmanager der letzten Jahre es nicht schafft mehr als 100 Mio $ für seinen GOLDFOND einzusammeln muß man klar zum Schluß kommen das sich GOLD in einer Blase befindet...;-)

Gilt umso mehr, da die Fundamentaldaten ( u.a. gesunde Banken & Staatsfinanzen.. )die gegen GOLD sprechen ja, wie gerade momentan recht anschaulich selbst in der gängigen Presse präsentiert, tagtäglich nicht nur in den gewohnt ""soliden" USA, sondern besonders für € Anleger besser werden....Ebenfalls wunderbar am "Sovereign Misery Index" zu erkennen....;-)

H/T Todd Harrison / Minyanville via Pragmatic Capitalist

Midas Touch Lost? Paulson Hits Hurdles in Gold Fund WSJ

It took John Paulson months to convince investors that housing would crumble.

Now it's taking him awhile to get them excited about gold, his latest passion

When Mr. Paulson's Paulson & Co. late last year announced it was starting a hedge fund to make a big gold bet, many on Wall Street expected investors to line up. Paulson & Co. scored about $20 billion in profits in 2007 and 2008 wagering against subprime mortgages and financial companies. It then bought financial shares last year to add more gains.

Some gold traders expected Mr. Paulson's new fund, launched Jan. 1, to raise billions of dollars and even help push gold higher when it started buying this year.

That hasn't happened. Despite months of investor meetings, Mr. Paulson has raised $90million or so for his new gold fund, according to people close to the matter. Even the $250 million that Mr. Paulson himself placed in the fund hasn't persuaded many investors to get on board.
Maybe he should do a roadshow among European investors....... ;-)

Empfehle zur Not mal ne Road Show durch Europa........ ;-)
Mr. Paulson has told investors that his gold strategy is a long-term one that will reap rewards over the next few years as the value of leading currencies drop
UPDATE:

A STERN REALITY CHECK FOR GOLD NAYSAYERS PC

Furthermore, the US dollar doesn’t have to decline for Gold to do well. Did you know that since the very end of 2004, the US$ is flat but Gold is up 143%? Since July 20, 2007, Gold is up 56% while the dollar is flat. Since early September 2008, Gold is up 35%, while the dollar is up 1%.
CLSA’s Christopher Wood FT Alphaville
A sovereign debt crisis in the West is coming sooner or later though it is probably not right now. This is why the recent correction in gold is an opportunity to buy more bullion and more gold mining shares.

As a German / European investor ( not speculator ) i´ve to repeat myself that it is always important to follow GOLD priced in €..... Unfortunately none of the so called German "business" papers / media takes care of this not insignificant fact.....See this Handelsblatt example in which several German "experts" discussing & charting the recent "correction" in GOLD denominated in $...

Auch auf die Gefahr hin das ich mich wiederhole gerade als Deutscher / Europäischer Investor ( nicht Spekulant ) ist einzig und allein der GOLDpreis in € relevant.... Mit etwas Glück findet man diesen auf den hinteren Seiten im Kleingedruckten der deutschen Fachpresse.....Verweise mal exemplarisch auf Taumelnder Euro zieht Goldpreis mit nach unten vom Handelblatt....

The fundamentals support our view as the financial crisis is entering the most bullish phase for Gold. The sovereign debt crisis, which really began in Iceland, will plague Europe this year and eventually spread to the UK and US by early 2011. Nations have no other choice but to monetize their growing obligations while trying to stimulate their economies with deficit spending and near 0% interest rates. It is a perfect storm for Gold

Chart Net Speculative Gold Long Positions When Gold Was Above $ 1.200

Yesterday / Gestern 222,282 net long gold contracts

To be honest i´m a little surprised that the long positions have only declined 50.000.....Hot money will lead to lots of volatility & great buying opportunities ( wouldn´t rule out something south of $ 1.000 ).... But according to Peter Boockvar this still elevated number means that "net longs in gold and silver both fell to its lowest level since Aug ‘09"

Muß gestehen das ich überrascht bin das die Longpositionen vom Hoch trotz der auf $ Basis heftiger Korrektur nur um 50.000 geschrumpft sind....Dürfte also gewohnt volatil bleiben und hoffentlich die ein oder andere Einstiegsgelegenheit ermöglichen.... Peter Boockvar weist darauf hin das die immer noch hohe Anzahl die Netto long position auf dem niedrigsten Stand seit August 2009 zurückgefallen sind.....

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16 Comments:

Blogger Stevie b. said...

As a committed contrarian, like you I'm delighted at the lacklustre response. I can perhaps understand the lack of enthusiam over the shorter term, but just hope indifference remains if, as & when gold starts to move. I'd get really worried when "they" start to pile in and would look desperately for optimum points at which to ease out.

6:59 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Stevie,

i´m probably one of the more modest "GOLD BUGS" not betting on huge spikes or gains and am not in the "conspiracy camp"... ;-)

Is see GOLD as a hedge / insurance and i expect that we will at least retest the $ 1000....

7:11 AM  
Blogger Stevie b. said...

"I see GOLD as a hedge / insurance and i expect that we will at least retest the $ 1000...."

Agreed. Am coming round to the view that just maybe we could get down to the low $900's, but am convinced that the PTB (powers-that-be) will do anything to stave-off meaningful deflation, not excluding negative interest rates.

8:28 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin again,

have updated the post to reflect the still high level of net long positions aka Hot Money.....

"will do anything to stave-off meaningful deflation, not excluding negative interest rates."

Bingo. I also think that when my view on the economy is correct ( very very bearish ) i think we will soon see QE 2.0 etc.....

The BOE has already today hinted that this is still on the table......

And with Bernanke reconfirmend..... ;-)

8:34 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Coming To America: The Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis Niall Ferguson via ZH

2:07 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Fabers definition of default is print & inflate.....

Faber's Bold Prediction: Both The US And Europe Will Default On Their Debt ZH

The CNBC clip is very amusing....

Especially Fabers Bllomberg reference as one of the CNBC crew wants to embarrass him.....;-)!

Almost as good is the outcry from the entire CNBC crew when Faber states the obvious.....

2:46 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Somewhat "unfair" that corporations cannot copy the unfundet liability accounting treatment of sovereigns.....

More BT pension woe

3:03 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Short View: Gold and the dollar John Authers FT

4:39 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Greece should hure this guy

Economist: Don't Blame the Deficit

Pure comedy.......

Even the CNBC crew was at least somewhat "stunned"

5:01 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Excellent and spot on.... Once more it´s all about bailing out the banks....

The Eurozone debt crisis: Facts and myths
Charles Wyplosz / VOX EU


Contagion, already under way, would be destructive. This statement is too vague. It cannot destroy the monetary union, as argued above. But contagion can bring the value of the euro down – but this would be mostly good news for the Eurozone as it is suffering from an overvalued exchange rate at a time of anaemic domestic demand.

Fact 5: The real worry is the banking system. Some European banks hold part of the Greek debt and, if still saddled with unrecognised losses from the subprime crisis, some might become bankrupt. Many governments have simply not pushed their banks to straighten up their accounts, and they are now discovering some of the unforeseen consequences of supervisory forbearance

11:10 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Dylan Grice has an update on the ongoing PONZI sheme..... Must read....

Just How Ugly Is The Sovereign Default Truth? How Self Delusions Prevent Recognition Of Reality ZH

11:32 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

You cannot make this up....

Georgia Gives Banks More Rope WSJ

The No. 1 state in bank failures is making it easier for survivors to deepen their exposure to a single borrower.

Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue, a Republican, signed into law Thursday a bill that allows banks chartered by the state to exceed current lending limits if a borrower hasn't fallen behind on payments.

For decades, it was illegal for such banks to pour more than 25% of their total capital into an existing lending relationship secured with collateral or more than 15% to an unsecured borrower.

10:22 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Paulson & Co Dec. 31 2009 13-F Released ZH

The fund's top position continues to be GLD at a value of $3.4 billion (unchanged from September 30).

9:59 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Sorros January in Davos.....

George Soros warns gold is now the 'ultimate bubble'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/...imate-bubble.html

His Hedge Fund ( to be fair he has little influence on the investment process )in Q4 2009

Soros doubled gold ETF investment

Soros Fund Management owned 6.2 million shares of SPDR Gold Trust -- an exchange-traded fund that owns gold bullion -- at the end of the year worth $663 million. That was up from 2.5 million shares at the end of the third quarter.

http://www.reuters.com/article/...mp;feedName=businessNews&rpc=76

I would feel better if his fund is short....

10:33 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

State Pension Shortfalls and Municipal Bankruptcies: This Must Be An Economic Recovery! Expected Returns

9:27 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Is Gold A Crowded Trade Paul Brodsky via Barry

Do your own research. Call your investment advisers and ask them what percentage, if any, they recommend investors allocate towards precious metals. Ring up prominent friends with substantial portfolios and ask them how much gold they have as a percentage of their portfolios. What about your fund managers overseeing, say $50 billion? Are they actually long $2.5 billion to $5 billion in precious metal plays? Our guess is that the figures in both cases will be very small, say 5% to 10% (if any at all).

Let’s extend this thinking. If people you know have only dipped their toes in the water and are doing more watching than investing in gold, then the past ten years of price appreciation must have come from elsewhere. Did it come from institutional investors? No, not in any great way. Most mutual and pension funds that report their holdings don’t own any gold – zip – other than very minor positions in precious metal mining stocks (and these stocks usually comprise less than 1% of their holdings).

9:43 AM  

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