Recession isn't an 'if' but a 'when' / Fleckenstein

Tough times if you are a bear for the overall market.......

Harte Zeiten für alle Bären die auf die Martktkorrektur der großen Indizes warten......

As I think about recent developments on Wall Street, I am struck by the absurdity of the current mentality. By that I mean: The latest run in the stock market, which peaked as the structured-credit problems made themselves known, had been powered by leveraged-buyout madness, which itself had been powered by lunacy in various forms of structured credit.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the plumbing of structured credit was a disaster -- witness the lines around the block at England's Northern Rock branches and, to a lesser extent, at Countrywide Financial here -- the Federal Reserve felt compelled to cut rates by a surprise half a percentage point. In doing so, Bennie and the Inkjets(thanks to my friend Colin for that moniker) have tanked the bond market and the dollar.

King Quants often gets what he wants
Of course, stock bulls responded on cue -- by racing in for more. Apparently, those with the most stock-market votes, i.e., those who run the most money these days, seem to believe in some sort of immutable law of physics that says stocks must go up each and every day.

Within that money-running group, I have a sneaking suspicion that the bizarre action in tech stocks is a function of quant funds. It seems they don't operate as they once did, when stocks were picked based on fundamental statistics. These days, the characteristics (volatility, correlation, membership in an index, etc.) of stock-price movement are all that matters.

Skies bluish versus bearish
What I expect to unfold is a recession and severe weakness in the equity market. To get a sense of the timing, I was therefore eager to hear the comments of noted speakers last week at a New York conference held by Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. To my surprise, it seemed most of them were not too terribly concerned about the stock market or the economy.

That is not to say everyone felt that way. But I think it accurately encapsulates the opinion of investor Sam Zell, who was downright bullish on world gross-domestic-product growth. He seemed to think that we'd most likely muddle through and that the recent hiccups in liquidity and the markets would not lead to anything very troubling or long-lasting. (Though he just concluded a $40 billion sale of commercial real estate, he didn't sound too bearish on that asset class, either.)

Mohamed El-Erian, Harvard's former endowment chief who is now moving to Pimco as a co-head, was similarly sanguine. But he felt that we would see plenty of volatility in the future and that folks had better learn how to manage risk. He thought the innards of the financial system hadn't quite caught up to all the changes in the world and indicated that would continue to raise issues for folks.

I guess GMO Chairman Jeremy Grantham came the closest to being downright bearish. He was unequivocal in his belief that housing prices will revert to the mean. Likewise profit margins in corporate America (which are at a record) and price-earnings ratios -- implying stock prices were going down a fair amount or, as an asset class, would generate negative real returns for an extended period. Obviously, if he is right about housing prices, I don't see how the trouble I envision is going to be avoided.

The nitty-gritty of the president's committee
An item that I felt folks would find most newsworthy is that the president's working committee on financial markets, known by some as the PPT, or plunge protection team, now has about 20 outsiders who attend certain meetings to advise the committee. One of them is none other than noted short-seller Jim Chanos, who left Grant's conference early last Tuesday to attend a PPT meeting. In response to my question as to why the committee had chosen him and others, he cited one reason: that the panel was worried about adverse publicity and wanted to communicate that there was no nefarious buying of S&P futures, as is constantly rumored.

This is a story that I'm sure will have legs. Though not an earthshaking development, given all the emotion that the PPT evokes, it's a fact worth knowing. Even Chanos -- who is quite bearish on structured finance and who pointed out many of the absurdities that readers are familiar with, such as Level 3 accounting, otherwise known as mark-to-fantasy -- didn't seem overly bearish. However, I did not specifically question him as to his opinion.

Bottom line: For what's often thought of as a bear's conference, I did not detect much bearishness. Perhaps it's right not to be bearish. But it does strike me that perhaps to be quite bearish about the economy and the stock market might be one of the most contrary thoughts of all.

Thanks to Bespoke Now vs. 1998 and 1987

Wall Street Alchemists / Fleckenstein

Fleckenstein has also some excellent comments on some "dead fish" analysts. Click on the headline to read the entire post.

Fleckenstein hat noch ziemlich treffende Worte in Sachen nutzloser Analysten. Bitte auf die Überschrift klicken.

The housing bubble and the housing ATM were built on fantasy. They were driven by Wall Street's ability to take any and all mortgages, package them up and turn them essentially into high-grade securities.

It was like the medieval notion of spinning straw into gold: Wall Street alchemists wanted volume, and they got it -- assembling trillions of dollars' worth of mortgage paper that probably should never have been created, certainly not under the terms as structured.

One day when we look back on this period, I believe we'll shake our heads and say it was all so obvious. Then we'll ask: What was the stock market "thinking" when it viewed itself as an entity that reality couldn't touch?

>Time to hire the ..... Zeit neue Geldquellen zu erschließen... :-)

Thanks to Randy Glasbergen http://www.glasbergen.com/ !!

"Blast from the Past"

could be news from 2007......click on the headline to read Fleckenstein´s take.

könnten zitate oder meldungen aus dem jahr 2007 sein....klickt bitte auf die überschrift um die meinung von Fleckenstein zu lesen.

"Mergers of industrial corporations and of banks were taking place with greater frequency than ever before, ....... And every rumor of a merger or a split-up or an issue of rights was the automatic signal for a leap in the prices of the stocks affected ......

"One could indulge in all manner of dubious financial practices with an unruffled conscience so long as prices rose. The Big Bull Market covered a multitude of sins. It was a golden day for the promoter, and his name was legion."

Though the shelves of manufacturing companies and jobbers and retailers were not overloaded, the shelves of the ultimate consumer and the shelves of the distributors of securities were groaning. Trouble was brewing -- not the same sort of trouble which had visited the country in ....., but trouble nonetheless. Still, however, the cloud in the summer sky looked no bigger than a man's hand

all quotes from
Only Yesterday An Informal History of the 1920's
by Frederick Lewis Allen

When facts don't matter / fleckenstein

he focuses his attention on the latest market reaction to the dell news. click on the headline to read fleck´s frustration. same could be said to almost every other bad news news recently ( maybe new changed this).......

wenn ihr die frustration von fleck in sachen dell nachlesen wollt bitte auf die überschrift klicken. mir geht bzw. ging es bei etlichen allen news oft ähnlich. evtl. hat aber die new century news etwas geändert.....

As anyone who focuses outside of tech can attest, that mind-set thrives in many sectors. Take the housing ATM, for example. Last Tuesday, insurance giant MGIC Investment announced it was buying Radian Group ), which is an insurer of more-questionable mortgages. What was stunning was not that Radian rallied but that MTG exploded for 10% as well.

Two days later, in an ironic twist to the MTG/RDN saga, subprime lender New Century Financial imploded, with the shares dropping by about 33%. The same day, HSBC Holdings upped its mortgage-loan-loss reserves from $8.8 billion to $10.6 billion.

So it goes in Drink-It-Pretty City
Thus, it's now good news when you raise guidance, lower guidance, your CEO/CFO stays, your CEO/CFO leaves. Higher oil prices are bullish, as are lower prices. We are in an environment that is 100% concept-driven. Facts matter little, though on occasion they seem to matter for a few moments.

As I suggested at the outset, this is the zaniest moment I have ever seen. The 1998-2000 period was silly ("new era" thinking), but it was just about massively overpaying for nonstop good news. Today's mentality is: We can do anything we want because there is no downside.

Market peak plays hide-and-seek Obviously, this level of lunacy can't continue indefinitely, but while it goes on, it can reach any magnitude. There's no determining in advance whether it lasts for five minutes or 90 days.

One can only try to tell when it has exhausted itself. All I can say is, the spectacle that I see on a daily basis is really something for the history books.

Tech investors still buying the hype / fleckenstein

thats the reaction(chart) form wall street if you guide down badly. only the promise that things will get better is enough to pump the stock. i think this might be correct if management has a good track record regarding visibility and guidance in the past. but in this case the opposite is the case. wall street at work...........here is something fantastic from cramer at work back 2000 http://www.itulip.com/awards.htm

nette kursreaktion (chart) wenn man bedenkt das man soeben massiv gewarnt gewarnt hat. alleine die vorhersage das alles besser wird ist heutzutage genug um die aktie ins laufen zu bringen. stimme im prinzip damit überein. das trifft aber nur zu wenn das management einen guten track record in sachen vorhersagen hat und das geschäft gut prognostizierbar ist. hier ist genau das gegenteil der fall.

It's just too typical. Texas Instruments' earnings report -- weak results, with no hint of what truly lies ahead -- is greeted with upgrades by the experts in the investing community. (watch the jump on wednesday / guckt euch den sprung am mittwoch an)

I have no idea what drives the "thought" process on the part of those folks who buy tech stocks these days. Perhaps they have a romantic notion about how wonderful these names are to own. So they buy them, and therefore the stocks act "OK" -- even though companies report disappointing news. In turn, that stock buying just begets more buying.

TXN bobbleheads gobble it up

Many of you have heard of people "buying the dip." This week I'd like to discuss a variation known as "buy the hype," which is what Texas Instruments bulls did last week as they focused on TXN's sunny forecast rather than its rather weak results.

One would think that when a company such as Texas Instruments misses forecasts badly enough to continue to pile up inventories (as happened throughout last year, as the company failed to anticipate the downturn that's occurred thus far), that company might have to offer some evidence of why it expects future forecasts to be more accurate.

But that was not the case on its recent conference call. Management, which shocked me at their midquarter update with an accurate assessment of their prospects -- what some might call honesty -- was back to its usual tactic: fabricating future demand out of thin air. They said: "This thing will turn around quickly," without offering any data to support their claim. Of course, they weren't held to any details by the dead-fish community, where some in fact upgraded the stock.

thanks to http://www.wallstreetfollies.com/

.....response with the objective analysis done by my friend Tony Rao, who toils at research boutique East Shore Partners. ....."The TXN report last night was very negative, missing Street consensus on virtually all metrics. Q4 numbers appeared to be in line, but the Street lowered their numbers after TXN guided down in the beginning of December. Guidance for Q1 was poor -- with revenue guidance at $3.15 billion, versus $3.32 billion consensus, and earnings between 28-38 cents, versus 35 cents consensus. From the guidance, it's obvious that the company has no clue as to what the wireless product mix will be, and whether 3G (third-generation networks that permit a new level of mobile interactivity) sales will rebound from the sharp decline in Q4. TXN had a book-to-bill of .89, which is the lowest bookings rate they've experienced in two years.

So what do they do in this environment? They have begun to reload their fabs (fabrication facilities) in anticipation of increased demand. They have no forecast from handset customers to support this thesis, and the moribund booking rates in Q4 certainly don't support this. They state they are doing this because last time, when handsets turned down in 2004 near year end, when the market rebounded in mid-2005 they could not meet demand. One should note that the falloff in 2004 was much less severe than it is currently. So, they are basically banking on a return of demand. (2004 was an inventory correction. This is, too, plus a weakening of demand.)

This strategy is extremely risky for TXN. If the demand does not materialize, or if it is slower to materialize, or if it is of a lower magnitude than they plan for, they will have a big inventory problem....... The reason the stock is up today is clear in my mind, even though it also makes no sense to me. The Street is taking the fact that TXN is loading their fabs as an indication that 'they know something' and that they must see demand increasing in some material way. .....

Give 'em the old second-half razzle-dazzle That is an accurate assessment. For some time now, it seems that companies have been able to report just about any number, and it doesn't matter as long as they tell everybody -- without even having to produce any supporting data -- that things will get better in the second half.

Optimism on ice, via lower price

To undermine that illusion of invincibility, it's going to take lower stock prices. And what will cause lower stock prices, you might ask? Exhaustion. Exhaustion causes lower prices, regardless of what the bullish crowd wants. And, while occurring in fits and starts, I think that process might be under way.

fleck is short txn

Home-loan house of cards ready to fall / fleckenstein

i really want to highlight the related links in this post. they are full of excellent data and charts.

ich möchte ausnahmsweise mal gesondert auf die im post verwendeten links hinweisen. diese unterfüttern das gesamtbild mit haufenweise charts und details.

The collapse of the subprime credit market may come this year, with a major subprime lender going broke. The repercussions will haunt us for years. (when you look at the great site from aaron "mortage lender implode-o-meter" http://ml-implode.com/ ( a must see!!!!!!!!!) you will agree that the collapse is already happening. / guckt euch die seite von aaron und ihr werdet sehen das der markt gerade implodiert.) ......

An optimistic lot, the Goldilocksters have been deaf to the increasing rumblings emanating from an arena that has powered our economy for the past few years: the housing market -- and specifically the financial dark matter/subprime credit spigot that has fueled its epic rise. (more on the topic subprime from russ winter http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=301#more-301 / mehr zum thema subprime von russ winter)


Bird's-eye view of a bitter housing brew
This week brings an update on the deterioration, via comments from two very knowledgeable friends. One of them, a former top executive at a subprime lender (whose chronicling of the unwind has been amazingly accurate and timely), told me that serious issues are developing, and that large companies like New Century Financial , Accredited Home Lenders and NovaStar Financial will, in his words, "hit the wall" very soon. make sure you read this piece from russ winter on new and nova. he unmasked the scary details http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=317#more-317 / für die ernüchternden detail unbedingt den link von russ winter lesen.)


He writes:
"We had a loan that was FPD (first-payment default) on a home in So Cal. It is a very nice high-end town that had a section of new homes built . . . in the low end of town. Normal homes sold for $1 million in value. In this new seven-home development, (homes) sold for $1.3 million to $1.5 million each. The homes you had to drive through to get to this place were worth $400,000 to $500,000. The market topped out, and now most of the seven homes are vacant -- worth no more than $900,000. Thus, all the lenders are sitting on losses of $400,000 to $600,000. This is just one of many that are happening daily. (make sure you read the jan. report from itulip on the situation in california http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=817 / für mehr infos den link von itulip lesen.)


"The commentary I am getting from field and legit brokers is that fraud is an out-of-control locomotive. (more on fraud http://www.mortgagefraudblog.com/ ) Stated-income loans are now finished for all the unemployed people around. We will quickly see cash-out loans curtailed. This vicious cycle has yet to play out. We are in the second inning of the unwinding.

"It is really getting serious. We had a borrower in So Cal who cut and pasted bank-statement copies of Washington Mutual to make it look like he had $400,000 average balances in his account to buy a $1.7 million home. Something did not seem right. Lo and behold, we checked very closely with the bank. The borrower had only $500 in his account. This is also just one of many examples happening daily.

"I am truly worried about the aftermath once it is resolved. It truly becomes a vicious cycle. Each time guidelines are pulled back, fewer buyers can buy homes. Thus, lower property values, and more people underwater. The debt piles up on homeowners' balance sheets, and people consume less.

"This will, and should, take years to play out. (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke will yield to the Lobby and the Street, trying once again to lower rates and allow people to bail themselves out, while in turn allowing the buyout firms of the world to overpay for the companies they buy with easy money. The game is so rigged against honesty, it boggles the mind. I worry about our children having a chance to have a future, at this point."

In the beginning, there was financial darkness
I am not as sure as he is that it will take "years" to play out. The damage will last for years, but the crackup that precedes the big damage will happen this year, I think. Meanwhile, the other friend, a broker who deals in the financial dark matter universe, noted that the risky BBB-minus tranche of the June 2002 ABX.HE (a synthetic version of assets backed by U.S. home loans) just traded at a new low -- down more than eight points from early September. Its credit-default swap has now blown out to 477 basis points. Although the BBB-minus tranche is just a fraction of the $1 trillion subprime market, it seems impossible to me that a train wreck there will not have ramifications. ......

At the time of publication, Bill Fleckenstein was short New Century Financial. ( so am i)

Goldilocks vs. a few bears / fleckenstein

maybe flecks has his timing better this year / evtl. wird das timining ja in 2007 besser

Those who point out that housing is down, retail sales are rocky and the market is shaky are only stating facts. The real question is why so many experts are so optimistic.

... with Bubblevision and most major media outlets spewing nothing but happy endings, I feel it's important for folks to understand that all roads do not lead to nirvana.

In fact, the Goldilocks scenario that most bulls are relying on is an extraordinarily low-probability event; the high-probability event being that the economy is slipping into recession and will face the attendant consequences. ....

Deck the malls with retail jolly?

I don't think anyone can say that, economically speaking, Christmas was a success, as sales grew roughly 1.6% to 2.5%, ....) No matter what the exact percentage growth, it was in all likelihood lower than the rate of inflation -- meaning that real retail sales contracted slightly in December.

The bullish interpretation that this will magically morph into a pickup sometime soon is not supported by any facts.

News from the housing sector continues to get worse. Every time a home builder reports results, they are on the weak side, yet at the same time, folks decide that it's the bottom. ....

Empty shelving in the tax-coffer cupboards

To pass along current information, according to last week's Liscio Report, "in December, just 43% of the states in our survey met or exceeded their budget and withholding-tax collections, down from 80% in November." They go on to note that December can be a tricky month, but when they analyze the trickiness, they do not think that that number is an inaccurate indication of the trend. Further, they point out that "our contacts were concerned about the weakness, especially in states with previously hot housing markets." .....

Panglossing over the facts

.....The current optimism is unbridled. Witness last week's USA Today story that cited the uniform bullishness of 10 stock market "gurus." Their reasons, as recounted by my favorite technician, Justin Mamis, sounded mostly like fluff and hot air. Meanwhile, the bulls pretend that the inflation rate is some tiny number -- when anyone who has to write checks to pay bills knows that inflation is a real problem, even if the government is incapable of measuring it accurately. ( here one of the guys who gets way to much airtime and space in the media. / hier so ein dauerbulle der immer noch haufenweise ziteirt und im tv herumgereicht wird) thanks to http://www.wallstreetfollies.com/

So, visions of sugarplums danced in folks heads as the year began. The market action in the first day was pretty dodgy, (and it didn't get all that much better as the week wore on). .....

I'm not going to enter into all the details that made him feel that way, or that make me feel that way. But suffice to say, the action that day ought to have been a warning sign to those of a bullish persuasion, though they will likely ignore it.

"No more bubbles to bail out the housing bubble / fleckenstein"

now the prediction is for 2007. his timing has really been bad. but the theses is correct.

nun wird der abschwung für 07 vorhergesagt. sein timing ist wirklich schlecht. die fakten aber sind stimmig.

The negatives keep growing, this time unchecked. The stock market, the real estate market and the economy will get in sync on the downside -- it’s just a matter of when.

Wall Street has a soft spot for the "soft landing" thesis, but to me it's crystal clear that a serious economic slowdown is under way. What has been surprising: not that the economy is weakening but that so many people seem to expect a soft landing, and therefore remain in denial about the seriousness of the slowdown.



I guess the predilection toward a soft landing is a function of the following: So many folks in the investment business -- and in the country at large-- haven't experienced a consumer-led recession in so long that they think this outcome is just not possible. That's because the Federal Reserve Board has evolved into being a business-cycle suppressor and bubble manager. Consequently, folks just assume that economic weakness is a feature of the business cycles of yesteryear.

Bubbles begat bubbles
To review: We had a mindless equity bubble that was precipitated by a complete abdication of responsibility on the part of Fed monetary policy. That bubble popped in 2000, precipitating a recession led by businesses cutting back from their previous misallocations of capital.

Next came our umpteen interest-rate cuts and tax cuts to help fight the aftermath, the result of which was a massive housing bubble -- aided and abetted by the utterly irresponsible actions on the part of lenders. The housing bubble topped out well over a year ago, though it's taken some time for the problems in real estate to begin affecting the consumer.

Follow the money (from sales tax receipts)
Now, however, it's quite clear that the consumer is being affected -- whether one looks at the sales data from Wal-Mart and other retailers, or at the Liscio Report´s
data on state sales-tax receipts. To quote from Liscio's latest survey: "The weakening consumption trend is now established, and the majority of our tax contacts expressed real concern about a slowing in sales-tax collections. It now appears clear that consumers are not spending the billions of dollars they have saved on gas in recent months."

Furthermore, when I e-mailed Liscio to share my view that we are entering a recession, here's the response I received: "We note with a shudder that our indexes look a lot the way they did in fall of 2000, especially the weakening and then big drop in the sales tax survey. The SDI led us into the last recession, and the states that led are very weak right now, as well." (The SDI is Liscio's proprietary sales-diffusion index.)

Wishing on a star, waiting on a slide
It is essential that folks understand the past, in order to prepare for what lies ahead. That the Fed was able to precipitate a housing bubble to bail out the equity bubble was a miracle. But there is no next bubble to bail out the housing bubble. ... an unstable, unsustainable engine of growth.... that the ramifications of the housing bubble's unwinding will be brutal. (just look at the effect of the mortage equity withdraw / man braucht nur auf den effekt der refinanzierung zu gucken)

What has, of course, been impossible to determine in advance is the exact timing of when the stock market, the real estate market and the economy get in sync to the downside -- i.e., "the next time down," to quote my euphemistic, forever-and-a-day-in-the-making outcome.

I expect it to occur in 2007 -- because everything seems lined up, as never before, for that scenario to play out. To quote a personal motto from my Web site: "Often wrong, never in doubt." Various areas in the stock market are more vulnerable than others, though in some ways, it's all one trade. Consequently, I think the chance for at least double-digit negative returns next year is very high.

Now to end by saying I hope everyone has a merry Christmas, happy Hanukkah and a happy new year. Until the Contrarian returns on Jan. 8, I'd like to invite folks to peruse past columns from my daily Market Rap at FleckensteinCapital.com. A complimentary username/password -- free/free -- has been established to allow access to the site.

Speculation gets even loonier! / fleckenstein

feels like he is a little bit frustratet / sieht so aus als wenn er so langsam frustriert ist.

http://tinyurl.com/y9mo7p
The evidence grows that the unwinding of the asset bubble is liable to be rapid -- and brutal.

While out of the country recently, I did something I haven't done in 20 years. I ignored the markets. I did not read a newspaper. I did not check my e-mail. I did not check my voice mail. I left instructions for my office to call me only if something dramatic transpired. (I wasn't contacted.)

In praise of being unplugged Why do I bring this up? To make the point that being removed from all information granted me the perspective that's often denied to those in the trenches. Upon my return, it was more clear to me than ever that we are at a speculative zenith of major proportions.

It is truly remarkable how reminiscent the current mindset is of the 1998-2000 stock mania, when every week would see hundreds of upward price-target revisions. Having said that, in my opinion the current psychology amongst so-called professionals is even loonier.

In the previous mania, the bulk of the madness was concentrated in technology concepts, especially Internet-oriented ideas, where a company that boasted a handful of eyeballs viewing its Web site could be worth tens of billions. Today, the insanity is spread out in various different places.

A little freefall for Freescale Leveraged-buyout madness, for example -- where airlines and semiconductor-equipment fabricators are being leveraged up to go private. Meanwhile, it's worth noting that the bonds of Freescale Semiconductor have broken par -- and that after having been lustily sought after when they were originally issued.

Of course, the pinnacle of the lunacy resides in the financial-dark-matter arena, where all forms of financial exotica exist. The latest specimen? A leveraged-up version of the CDO (collateralized debt obligation) known as the CPDO (constant proportion debt obligation). Without going into all the details, this new product supposedly allows for people to get their money back (plus a bit of interest), if its architects are adept at selling more and more premium in the form of credit default insurance (swaps) as the prices go against them.... http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/reality-check-bill-gross-pimco.html

Long-Term Capital, short-term memory
Turning to another example of folks having lost their minds, a willing crowd now apparently wants to lend $2 billion to hedge fund Citadel Investment Group.http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/read-this-twice-hedge-funds.html

I have to ask myself, why would anybody lend money to a hedge fund when it has no assets to claim and its structure thwarts the processes of due diligence and monitoring of one's collateral? Doesn't anyone remember Long-Term Capital Management, which melted down in 1998 and had to be rescued by the Federal Reserve?

When discussing the madness of crowds, it's never possible to predict the outer limits of that madness. Nor is it ever possible to say that the psychology can't get crazier. But in my opinion, the psychology today is about as wild as it can get.

Regrettably, there is no "timing" in that statement. Inflection points -- like tops -- are hard to position oneself around. Change seems to take forever to occur, then happens, seemingly out of the blue. That certainly describes the dollar's serious break, on Nov. 24, for no proximate cause. In all likelihood, it finally sank under the cumulative weight of preceding events,......

Piercing shards 'neath a house of cards
But, whatever "turns" this asset-bubble structure -- and whenever it turns -- the unwinding is going to be brutal, and likely to occur at a rapid clip, given the degree of lunacy on the credit (versus equity) side of the ledger.

And to think that all of this is backed by a thin piece of paper called the dollar, printed at warp speed by the central planners at the Federal Reserve, who brought us the mindless misallocation of capital that created these asset bubbles.