Sunday, September 30, 2007

Recession isn't an 'if' but a 'when' / Fleckenstein

Tough times if you are a bear for the overall market.......

Harte Zeiten für alle Bären die auf die Martktkorrektur der großen Indizes warten......

As I think about recent developments on Wall Street, I am struck by the absurdity of the current mentality. By that I mean: The latest run in the stock market, which peaked as the structured-credit problems made themselves known, had been powered by leveraged-buyout madness, which itself had been powered by lunacy in various forms of structured credit.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the plumbing of structured credit was a disaster -- witness the lines around the block at England's Northern Rock branches and, to a lesser extent, at Countrywide Financial here -- the Federal Reserve felt compelled to cut rates by a surprise half a percentage point. In doing so, Bennie and the Inkjets(thanks to my friend Colin for that moniker) have tanked the bond market and the dollar.

King Quants often gets what he wants
Of course, stock bulls responded on cue -- by racing in for more. Apparently, those with the most stock-market votes, i.e., those who run the most money these days, seem to believe in some sort of immutable law of physics that says stocks must go up each and every day.

Within that money-running group, I have a sneaking suspicion that the bizarre action in tech stocks is a function of quant funds. It seems they don't operate as they once did, when stocks were picked based on fundamental statistics. These days, the characteristics (volatility, correlation, membership in an index, etc.) of stock-price movement are all that matters.

Skies bluish versus bearish
What I expect to unfold is a recession and severe weakness in the equity market. To get a sense of the timing, I was therefore eager to hear the comments of noted speakers last week at a New York conference held by Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. To my surprise, it seemed most of them were not too terribly concerned about the stock market or the economy.

That is not to say everyone felt that way. But I think it accurately encapsulates the opinion of investor Sam Zell, who was downright bullish on world gross-domestic-product growth. He seemed to think that we'd most likely muddle through and that the recent hiccups in liquidity and the markets would not lead to anything very troubling or long-lasting. (Though he just concluded a $40 billion sale of commercial real estate, he didn't sound too bearish on that asset class, either.)

Mohamed El-Erian, Harvard's former endowment chief who is now moving to Pimco as a co-head, was similarly sanguine. But he felt that we would see plenty of volatility in the future and that folks had better learn how to manage risk. He thought the innards of the financial system hadn't quite caught up to all the changes in the world and indicated that would continue to raise issues for folks.

I guess GMO Chairman Jeremy Grantham came the closest to being downright bearish. He was unequivocal in his belief that housing prices will revert to the mean. Likewise profit margins in corporate America (which are at a record) and price-earnings ratios -- implying stock prices were going down a fair amount or, as an asset class, would generate negative real returns for an extended period. Obviously, if he is right about housing prices, I don't see how the trouble I envision is going to be avoided.

The nitty-gritty of the president's committee
An item that I felt folks would find most newsworthy is that the president's working committee on financial markets, known by some as the PPT, or plunge protection team, now has about 20 outsiders who attend certain meetings to advise the committee. One of them is none other than noted short-seller Jim Chanos, who left Grant's conference early last Tuesday to attend a PPT meeting. In response to my question as to why the committee had chosen him and others, he cited one reason: that the panel was worried about adverse publicity and wanted to communicate that there was no nefarious buying of S&P futures, as is constantly rumored.

This is a story that I'm sure will have legs. Though not an earthshaking development, given all the emotion that the PPT evokes, it's a fact worth knowing. Even Chanos -- who is quite bearish on structured finance and who pointed out many of the absurdities that readers are familiar with, such as Level 3 accounting, otherwise known as mark-to-fantasy -- didn't seem overly bearish. However, I did not specifically question him as to his opinion.

Bottom line: For what's often thought of as a bear's conference, I did not detect much bearishness. Perhaps it's right not to be bearish. But it does strike me that perhaps to be quite bearish about the economy and the stock market might be one of the most contrary thoughts of all.

Thanks to Bespoke Now vs. 1998 and 1987
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Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is difficult to be bearish and put money in play on that when the indexes are steadily climbing, typically making large moves up, but then only small drops on the days when they are down. Even the news out of UBS today has caused only a relatively small move down. Maybe it is true that these problems in the financial markets will spread and weaken the entire economy, causing stocks (around the world) to fall, and maybe not. If so, the markets seem to be largely discounting this now.

I would trade appropriately.

But at least it is a very interesting time: market moves make for opportunities. It is a bit hard to know what to do, though.


12:41 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Eh,

i´m in a wait and see mode during the last 30-60 days.

Have made almost no trade at all.

I´m very impressed by the "animal spirit" that has caught up the markets again.

It is fascinating to see how sentiment has changed from one day to another.

I wanted to take a few days off and relax a little bit. But with all the news hitting the market i had to postpone this several times this year.

I have the feeling that my next relaxed holiday will probably delayed until 2008....

1:22 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Michael Panzer sums it up

Bipolar Disorder?

1:45 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Recession Concern Spurs U.S. Bond Rally on Fed Ease

For the first time since 1995, the U.S. bond market is rallying on the assumption that the Federal Reserve has relegated inflation to a secondary concern because the central bank views a recession as a much greater threat to the economy.

A better way to look at this is the move in gold........

2:03 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Minyanville via Mish

The Federal Reserve executed a whopping $38 billion in repos this morning. Apart from the size, the most amazing thing is that they took $22 billion in mortgages as collateral. Perhaps I was wrong when I said the Federal Reserve would not wreck its balance sheet in attempting to reflate the economy. This is truly stuff of a Banana Republic.

2:31 AM  
Anonymous Tranen Capital said...

It seems as though there is too much cash floating in the system still and hot money at that. Real goods and real economic goods drive a healthy economy. Tranen Capital feels as though there will need to be real output produced in the US before a sustainable recovery happens.

3:18 PM  

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