Deutsche Bank Is Doubling Down In Vegas.....

I´m pretty sure that the statement "Problem loans stable" at page 27 from their latest results won´t be repeated in the comming quarters...... Throwing good money after bad money has not often worked. This is especially true when you see the clip further down and watch the latest Las Vegas Statistics..... You really have to work at Wall Street or the financial complex to see light at the end of the tunnel..... I assume that the light is coming from a fast moving train ....

Bin mir ziemlich sicher das die Aussage "Problem loans stable" siehe Seite 27 letztes Quartalsergebnis in den nächten Quartalen sicher nicht mehr wiederholt werden kann..... Schlechtem Geld noch gutes hinterherzuschmeissen ist in den seltensten Fällen die richtige Entscheidung gewesen. Seht Euch den Clip zu dem im Feuer stehenden Projekt an und werft einen Blick auf die letzten Las Vegas Besucherstatistiken und man muß ziemlich "kühn" kalkulieren um hier auch nur ein kleines Licht am Ende des Tunnels zu sehen.... Ich tippe darauf das das Licht eher das eines heranrauschenden Zuges sein wird...... Hier noch ein passender Artikel der FAZ Ausgespielt in Las Vegas. Lesenwert!

Deutsche's Tarnished Rep WSJ

DEUTSCHE BANK dug itself into a $10 billion commercial-real-estate hole. So far, the German bank is doing a decent job clambering out. But the tale raises questions about Deutsche's judgment.

The bank's exit from its Manhattan hole is off to a fast start. Just last summer, Deutsche helped real-estate mogul Harry Macklowe buy seven office towers for $7.5 billion. Mr. Macklowe soon ran into trouble. But Deutsche persuaded him to surrender the buildings, avoiding painstaking foreclosure proceedings.

Three of the towers have already been sold, two are under contract and the last two are expected to go soon. True, they're selling for about 25% less than Mr. Macklowe paid, and Deutsche will lose money. But a swift exit at a modest loss is probably the best outcome that could have been achieved.

Las Vegas, though, is another story. Deutsche is foreclosing on the $3.5 billion Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino after developer Ian Bruce Eichner defaulted. Rather than sell the half-finished project into a depressed market, Deutsche will take possession.

> I especially like the somment " The concept that will stand the test of time"..... Impossible to suppress Schadenfreude while watching the clip..... :-)

> Besonders beeindruckend ist in diesem Zusammenhang der Schlußsatz "The concept that will stand the test of time"......... Zwecklos bei Ansicht des Clips nicht in Schadenfreude zu verfallen.... :-)

Deutsche will have to raise its bet with another $1 billion investment in the development, at the same time local operator Boyd Gaming has shelved a $5 billion project on the Strip. That looks like a risky double-down for a bank already exposed to MGM Mirage's cash-strapped $11 billion CityCenter project nearby.

> I´m not sure if they are already on the hook but when even Dubai World is late in raising as much as $3.5 billion for their $11.2 billion CityCenter project in Las Vegas it is not a very good sign.....MGM, Dubai Fall Behind on $3.5 Billion Loan for Las Vegas Plan . Watch the folling clip and it is no wonder why they are falling behind.....

> Ich bin mir nicht sicher ob die Deutsche Bank hier schon im "Feuer" steht. Wenn aber selbst Dubai als Hauptinvestor momentan Probleme hat Kredite zu bekommen ist dies sicher kein gutes Zeichen..... MGM, Dubai Fall Behind on $3.5 Billion Loan for Las Vegas Plan . Schaut Euch den Clip an und es ist wenig verwunderlich warum es Finanzierungsprobleme gibt.......

Project CityCenter - Las Vegas Luxury Condos

Even so, Deutsche's biggest hole may not be in Vegas, but in its reputation. It made the sucker's mistake of overlooking history, backing two racy developers with well-chronicled failures. It also was apparently blinded by the market's former momentum. In New York, it expected skyscraper rents to soar by 75%. In Las Vegas, it seems to have overestimated growth prospects and Sin City's resilience to a slowing U.S. economy.

Deutsche might be forgiven for failing to anticipate the full extent of the credit crunch. It has nevertheless revealed two weak cards in its hand: its ability to assess both borrowers and risk.

Investors Hit $10bn Loss In US Financials

Never catch a falling knife.......It remains to be seen if the Sovereign Wealth Funds won´t double down..... :-) Just watch todays news on Barclays....... It seems like they still havn´t lost enough..... At least they bought into a strong currency..... ;-)

Greife nie in ein fallendes Messer..... Bin wirklich gespannt ob sich die staatlich kontrollierten Fonds wirklich ernsthaft zurückhalten. Das Beispiel Barclays zeigt momentan noch ein anderes Bild. Mann könnte auch sarkastisch sagen das hier der "Anfängerfehler" gemacht wird und die Positionen "verbilligt" werden..... :-). Die Verluste sind anscheinend noch nicht schmerzhaft genug..... Immerhin haben Sie sich dank der "gelungenen" Investment in eine "starke" Währung eingekauft ...... ;-) Investors hit $10bn loss in US financials FT
Investors who backed US financial companies’ drive to raise much-needed capital are sitting on nearly $10bn in paper losses amid a continued slump in the sector’s shares, a Financial Times analysis shows.

The negative returns suffered by investors are likely to make it more difficult and expensive for US financial groups to tap equity markets if, as expected, the credit crunch forces them to raise more capital.

“Raising funds from equity investors is becoming increasingly complicated because the performance of financial stocks during and after the spate of fund-raisings has been so abysmal,” said a Wall Street banker who advises institutions.

The setbacks suffered by equity investors come as sovereign wealth funds – a rich source of capital at the beginning of the crisis – have moved to the sidelines after seeing the value of investments fall in companies such as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley.

Investors who bought the $65bn-plus in common and convertible shares issued by large US financial institutions since last October have seen their total investments fall by more than $9.7bn – a negative return of about 15 per cent – according to an FT analysis of Dealogic data.

> I doubt that all of the SWF were as smart as the following....

> Glaube kaum das alle SWF ähnlich weitsichtig wie der nachfolgende agiert haben.....

FT Abu Dhabi’s Adia, meanwhile, had structured its November investment in Citi in a way that gave it the right to go back and strike better terms on its deal, heightening its downside protection to match the terms GIC and Kia struck with Citi.

> Lets hope for them that this kind of term is still in place during the next few capital raising attempts from Citi.... :-)

> Bleibt zu hoffen das diese Kalusel auch noch nach der 3. und 4. Runde von Kapitalerhöhungen bei Citi in Kraft ist...... :-)

Those who took part in the $1.2bn recapitalisation of the bond insurer Ambac last March are nursing paper losses of more than 70 per cent. And fund managers who backed a $1.2bn capital raising by fellow monoline insurer MBIA have seen their investment shrink by 60 per cent.

Shareholders in Citigroup who thought that the sharp fall in the stock made last month’s $4bn share issuance a buying opportunity face a 24 per cent loss.

Of the 20-plus fund raisings by US banks and insurers since the onset of the crisis, only two – by the student loan provider Sallie Mae and the regional lender Sovereign Bancorp – show a small positive return

Big Investors Jumping Back Into Shaky Home Loans

nice to see that even the smart money is often dumb money......

schön zu sehen das selbst die großen oft genug danebenliegen......


The subprime mortgage business is in tatters: loan volume is plummeting, defaults are rising and some of the biggest lenders have cut back or shut down.

So what is the smart money — private equity, hedge funds and investment banks — doing? They are swooping in and taking over those battered businesses, seeing opportunity amid the wreckage.

>we will see down the road if this was "smart" money"....

>denke das wir erst in zukunft sagen können ob das wirklich alles so smart war

“There is a lot of money pent up,” said Steve Probst, national sales manager with Fairway Independent Mortgage, a lender based in Sun Prairie, Wis. “And a lot of people are betting that the market will snap back quickly.”

It is a risky proposition.
In many parts of the country, there is a glut of unsold homes. Defaults and foreclosures are rising, putting further pressure on home prices and mortgage lending. Some housing industry officials worry that the new infusion of capital may refuel aggressive and risky lending to people with poor credit, known as subprime borrowers, delaying a much needed winnowing of the business.

thanks to Northern Trust. more charts here from Barry Ritholtz http://tinyurl.com/3b5cle

Those dark clouds do not faze the new money in subprime. Among those making the biggest bets is Cerberus Capital Management, which first made its name investing in distressed debt. One of the country’s largest private equity firms, Cerberus has a record of making risky contrarian bets, including its recent agreement to take control of the troubled Chrysler Corporation for $7.4 billion.

Cerberus acquired control of the subprime lender Residential Capital last year, when it led an investment consortium that bought a 51 percent stake in G.M.A.C., the finance arm of General Motors. And in April, Cerberus, which also owns Aegis Mortgage, a subprime lender based in Houston, announced plans to acquire Option One, the troubled mortgage subsidiary of H&R Block.

Taken together, these acquisitions would make Cerberus the biggest subprime lender in the country, far ahead of large mortgage giants like Countrywide, Wells Fargo and others, according to first-quarter lending statistics from Inside Mortgage Finance.....

“They have certainly double-downed and have bought some extremely attractive operations — companies that have dominated their space,” said Brenda B. White, a managing director with Deloitte & Touche Corporate Finance. “But now they’re faced with executing on a plan, whatever that plan might be.”

>read this twice...what a statement...when you double down on something it is more a sign that they bought way to early. and everybody that bought subprime in 2006 was an not lets say it politely "not smart"....

>last euch das argument nochmal auf der zunge zergehen...wenn ich lese das einer "double down" geht heisst das für mich das hier im vorwege viel zu teuer gekauft worden ist. und wer wie in diesem fall in 2006 in den subprime markt eingestiegen ist der hat gelinde gesagt "nicht clever" gehandelt.

This year, when rising mortgage defaults and a credit squeeze on Wall Street have forced many subprime mortgage companies into bankruptcy, some analysts predict that the industry might shrink by a third or more. Many industry officials acknowledged that a shakeout was necessary to cull the industry of the lenders that led in making risky loans and forcing rivals to match them or lose business.

In the last several months, however, private equity firms and others have acquired, taken stakes in or provided fresh capital to companies that wrote nearly 20 percent of last year’s $600 billion in subprime loans. It is, analysts and industry officials suggest, an unusually quick and substantial bet on a distressed business that by most indications is in the early phases of a long-term retrenchment.

Yet trying to time the bottom of a sliding market has been tricky, even for smart-money investors like Cerberus.

For instance, rising defaults and the cost of buying back poorly performing loans from investors left Residential Capital with more than $1.5 billion in losses in the six months that ended in March and the losses are expected to continue. (In March, General Motors, which still owns 49 percent of G.M.A.C., was forced to put an additional $1 billion into the unit because of the division’s mortgage woes.)

Cerberus has insisted on a number of terms and conditions in its deal to buy Option One, suggesting that the firm has become more vigilant about not paying too much. ...

“The investment banks that were buying last year were buying at the high,” said Mr. Burns, who is now chief executive of Vantage Score, a company that provides credit scores that lenders use to evaluate borrowers. (Both Merrill and Morgan have said they are comfortable with what they paid for their subprime acquisitions.).....

“They’re taking enormous risks here in hoping that they’ll be able to stabilize these businesses, keep them going, and get the types of regulatory approval they need to originate and service mortgages,” said Rick Antonoff, a partner in the bankruptcy and restructuring practice at the law firm of Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman. “They have put a lot of capital in already, and it’s going to take additional capital to keep these businesses going for a while.”....

In April, Accredited Home Lender, a San Diego-based lender, raised $230 million in loans from Farallon Capital, an investment firm based in San Francisco. The mortgage company agreed to pay a 13 percent interest rate and penalties if it sought to pay off the debt ahead of time. The company also gave Farallon warrants that would allow it to increase its stake in Accredited to 19 percent, from 7 percent. The warrants allow Farallon to buy the company’s shares for $10 apiece, a discount to the stock’s $13.99 closing price yesterday.

>here the anti spin from Rodger Rafter ...they are often just throwing good money after bad money.

>oder oft genug wird auch einfach gutes geld schlechtem hinterhergeworfen.wie dies klasse beipsiel von Rodger Rafter beweist.

They announced today that a hedge fund (Farallon) will loan them $200 million at 13% interest for 5 years. That interest rate is already extremely high, given the state of the corporate debt market these days, but Farallon also gets 3.3 million warrants priced at $10 and "rights to purchase additional equity securities."

Farallon has an interest in keeping LEND afloat. They bought 1,975,000 shares during Q4 of 2006, most of that was probably above $30 as they hit 1,579,349 shares (a 6.3% stake) on November 2nd. http://tinyurl.com/ysrths

Another hedge fund, Second Curve Capital, that bought an 8.5 percent stake in Accredited in early February when the stock was trading at $25 to $30, has increased its stake in the company to 11.2 percent as the stock has fallen.

Citadel, an aspiring financial conglomerate based in Chicago, picked up the lending business of ResMae for just $22 million. Ellington Management, a hedge fund based in Greenwich, Conn., that specializes in mortgage-backed securities, has agreed to pay an undisclosed sum for the lending business of Fremont General, which has not made a subprime loan in almost three months and has cut 2,400 jobs in its lending business.....

“There is a lot of fear that expansion starts again because liquidity is coming in,” said Stephanie Christie, a senior vice president in charge of nonprime lending at Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. “The industry needs to be very serious about prudent underwriting and make sure we don’t go back to making bad loans.”...

disclosure: short KBW Mortgage Finance Index

to bad that nobody can short ceberus subrpime exposure.........