Wednesday, September 13, 2006

delinquencies / foreclosure

wenn er sich auf die "healthy economy" verlassen will dann gute nacht / good luck


U.S. MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES UP SLIGHLTY YEAR-OVER-YEAR: MBA

U.S. MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES EDGE LOWER FROM FIRST QUARTER

MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS 4.39% OF LOANS DELINQUENT

PERCENT OF U.S. HOMES IN FORECLOSURE AT 0.99, LITTLE CHANGED
(compare this with the cnn story/mit cnn story vergleichen!)

PRESSURE ON HOLDERS OF SUBPRIME ARMS, MBA'S DUNCAN SAYS

HEALTHY ECONOMY OFFSETTING SLUMPING HOUSING MARKET: DUNCAN

U.S. mortgage delinquencies edge up year-over-year

The percentage of homeowners falling behind in their mortgage payments inched up in the second quarter from a year earlier, although the number was down slightly from the first quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. Delinquent loans, those more than 30 days past due, represented 4.39% of outstanding mortgages in the second quarter, up from 4.34% a year earlier but down from 4.41% in the first quarter. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 0.99, up from 0.98% in the first quarter but down from 1.0% a year ago. Doug Duncan, chief economist for the mortgage bankers' group, said a generally healthy economy has countered a decelerating housing market to keep bad loans in check. But he noted pressure on holders of subprime adjustable-rate loans, those made to the riskiest borrowers, and said that could spur modestly higher delinquency rates in the months ahead.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With real estate markets slowing and mortgage rates well above levels of recent years, times are getting tougher for homeowners - the number of homes entering into some stage of foreclosure is surging, according to a survey released Wednesday.

In August, 115,292 properties entered into foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure sales. That was 24 percent above the level in July and 53 percent higher than a year earlier.

It was the second highest monthly foreclosure total of the year; in February, 117,151 properties entered foreclosure.

Some of the bellwether real estate market states are among the leading foreclosure markets. Florida, had more than 16,533 properties in foreclosure in August. That led all states and was 50 percent higher than in July and 62 percent higher than in August 2005.

California foreclosures are increasing at an even faster annual rate, up 160 percent since last year to 12,506. And the formerly red-hot Nevada market recorded a spike of 24 percent compared with July and a whopping 255 percent increase from August 2005.

passend dazu auch die rate der home equity loans und der arms
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/delinquency-rate-in-home-equity-loan.html
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/cramer-wie-zu-dotcom-zeiten.html

ich persönlich empfinde die daten gerade wenn man den unveränderten wert gegenüber dem vorjahr sieht und das mit dem bericht von cnn vergleich geradezu unglaubwürdig. auch wenn man sich ansieht das in den letzten monaten die "early defaluts" also das nicht einmal die erste rate bezahlt worden ist explodiert sind wird der zwangsvollstreckungsbereich und auch die zahlungsgestörten kredite sicher stark ansteigen.

aus dem call von h&r block (subprime)
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/update-conference-call-hr-block-hrb.html

early payment default
first payment default up to 3,82%
secound payment default up to 7,35%
third payment default up to 11,66%

evtl. schlagen diese werte erst mit zeitverzögerung / time lag durch.

passend dazu ein weiter aspekt der zunehmend wichtiger wird. die fast nicht vorhandene risikovorsorge der banken. http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/07/risikovorsorge-nicht-notwendig.html

jan-martin

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