The Housing Project Update / PIMCO

good take from pimco. please make sure you read the comments on the ofheo data that is used from pimco for their charts.

gute bestandsaufnahme von pimco. möchste euch noch besonders aie erläuterungen zu den ofheo daten hinweisen die ich eingefügt habe und die pimco in einigen bereichen (charts/text) zitiert.




In 2005, PIMCO forecasted home price appreciation (HPA) of 5% for 2006, with stronger gains in the first half of the year and smaller gains through the second half. The OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) home price index appreciated by 5.9% in 2006, with the largest gains occurring early in the year. This represented the smallest annual increase since 1999.
2006 marked an inflection point for the U.S. housing market. Although home prices continued to rise, the rate of increase slowed and some regions began to see price declines. The most drastic impact of the housing slowdown was felt in the subprime sector (mortgage loans to lower credit-quality borrowers) where mounting delinquencies and losses squeezed already-thin profit margins for mortgage lenders, forcing some to shut their doors. PIMCO believes that mortgage finance was critical to the rise in home prices since 2000, and also will be critical to the period ahead, which undoubtedly brings a correction of some sort. We want to answer the question: How much of a correction?

Housing Data
In 2005, PIMCO forecasted home price appreciation (HPA) of 5% for 2006, with stronger gains in the first half of the year and smaller gains through the second half. The OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) home price index appreciated by 5.9% in 2006, with the largest gains occurring early in the year. This represented the smallest annual increase since 1999. ( read more about the often misleading ofheo data http://tinyurl.com/37mszm / unter dem link mehr infos zu den nicht immer repräsentativen ofheo daten )

this are comments from paul in jax and deb on the ofheo data.

• OFHEO data is great, but remember this news is about six months old
• The OFHEO data is not terribly relevant for many high priced metro areas.
  The methodology uses only “TRANSACTIONS INVOLVING CONFORMING, CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGES PURCHASED OR SECURITIZED BY FANNIE MAE OR FREDDIE MAC”.
• How many transaction in Los Angeles or similarly high priced cities meet this criteria? I would guess only a small fraction.
• So they are basing this entire index on the sales at the VERY BOTTOM entry level into the market, and most likely transactions involving somewhat more qualified buyers who can actually get standard financing meeting GSE guidelines.
  

Despite the continued growth of the average housing price, there was substantial variation between different regions. Several states saw price declines in the 4th quarter: California, Hawaii, North Dakota, Nevada, and Nebraska. Michigan became the first state to see a year-over-year decline in several years, primarily due to employment weakness in the auto industry.

thanks to barry ritholtz http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

Most housing indicators turned lower in 2006. New and existing home sales both fell during the year. Sales of existing homes were down 7% for the year and 13% from their 2005 peak. The drop in new home sales was slightly more pronounced, plummeting by as much as 23% before recovering to finish the year 11% lower. The number of vacant homes for sale increased by over 34% and homebuilders are coming under increasing pressure to control the surging inventories. The housing supply has continued to increase early in 2007 and the number of vacant homes for sale now stands at over 2.1 million (2.7% of all homes).



New vs. Existing Home Sales
The new home sales and price data for 2006 was volatile and we believe the reason is important. In the early ’90s California housing recession, only one of the top 10 builders was a public company. Today, nine of the top 10 homebuilders are public companies. This is important because equity investors punish public companies for high inventory. We have long expected to see the builders cut prices to unload new homes, which they did in 2006. We also believe prices were softer than the reported data reflect because instead of cutting the sales price, a builder often will include several thousand dollars of upgrades, which aren’t reflected in the sales-price data.
Existing home sales are a more stable indicator of sales volume for the bulk of the housing stock. Unlike new homes, where the owner is a builder who is a highly motivated seller, an existing homeowner will most often stay in the home rather than discount the price heavily. As a result, many existing homes that don’t sell quickly simply are taken off the market.


What’s More Important: Volumes or Prices?
We believe the volume of homes sold holds more significance because it has considerable second-order effects on the economy. A slowdown in housing leads to a reduction in employment not only for builders and construction-related sectors, but also for mortgage lenders, appraisers, brokers, and realtors. More importantly, it triggers a substantial decline in consumption. Fewer homes being sold means that there are fewer people buying new furniture, electronics, and other goods and services that normally accompany a new home purchase.

Mortgage Lending: Subprime Finally Weakens
If mortgage lending was fuel for the housing bonfire since 2000, it was the firehose in late 2006 and early 2007. ......

There is no doubt that higher HPA in previous years has limited losses from riskier loans, but performance for the 2006 vintage deteriorated rapidly amidst the combination of a housing slowdown and increasingly liberal underwriting standards

make sure you read this brilliant piece from rodger rafter with even scarier charts than the above from pimco. http://tinyurl.com/2fqgva

ihr solltet euch unbedingt noch mehr charts von rodger rafter ansehen. bitte auf den link klicken http://tinyurl.com/2fqgva

Tale of Two Mortgage Markets: Prime vs. Subprime
The rapid growth of subprime lending since 2000 and the innovation it has brought to the mortgage market generate a lot of interesting and alarming headlines, but the prime market actually comprises the majority of US mortgage loans, and has been unaffected substantially by the housing slowdown.

What distinguishes a prime loan from a subprime loan? Ask 10 mortgage professionals and you’re likely to get 10 slightly different answers, as there isn’t a single standard definition. ....

but it in very important to know that the last years subprime and alt-a have exploded! that is the area where the danger is......so the overall number from pimco gives only one side of the story. the foreclosures are coming in the segment fast and furious.....

es ist allerdings sehr wichtig zu wissen, das der subprime und alt-a bereich in den letzen jahren explodiert sind. hier liegen die probleme. so die gesamtnummer gibt ein verzerrtes bild wieder. die zwangsvollstreckungen kommen genau aus diesem segment.

The prime market, on the other hand, is the traditional market that has served several generations of homeowners – typified by a 30-year or 15-year fixed rate, a 20% down payment, and a FICO or credit score above 700. The majority of these high-quality loans are sold into MBS (mortgage-backed securities) and guaranteed by one of the mortgage agencies – Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac. (Most subprime loans are not credit-eligible to be sold to the agencies.) Agency MBS have been unaffected by the housing slowdown.

Spreads on high quality MBS and AAA-rated ABS remain near historic tight levels, but lower-rated bonds have widened substantially. Investors increasingly are differentiating or tiering between originator/servicer quality, loan quality and many other aspects of mortgage credit – something PIMCO has been doing actively for some time. Mortgage credit analysis is granular, credit-intensive, and bond-specific. Generalities rarely apply.

The lenders that are most likely to emerge from the downturn are those with a significant, complementary prime mortgage business such as Countrywide, Wells Fargo, Chase, and Bank of America.

Outlook for 2007:
PIMCO expects the housing slowdown to continue in 2007 with a steeper decline in home sales than for home prices. New home prices should fall the most since they appreciated the most relative to existing housing during the run-up in prices. Attempts by homebuilders to reduce heavy inventories also will put downward pressure on new-home prices. The National Association of Realtors index, which tracks median home prices, should fall by 4-5% in 2007. The OFHEO index tracks repeat sales and PIMCO expects it to decline by over 1% this year (new home sales have little impact on this index).

The slowdown in housing should drag GDP down by approximately 1% over the next several quarters. Due to the multiplier effect that a slowdown has on consumption, it is likely that the impact on the economy will be even more substantial.

We expect the problems in the subprime market will result in continued consolidation of lenders, as the weaker players are not able to sustain loan production volumes or meet the tighter standards that are currently underway. Due to this consolidation, we expect to see subprime issuance decrease dramatically in 2007–2008. Much contraction has already taken place as year-to-date issuance has dropped nearly 10% compared to 2006 at this point in time. We envision a credit squeeze among low FICO, high loan-to-value and first-time homebuyers who are used to liberal credit standards.

It is likely that the poor performance we have seen in subprime loans will carry over to some degree into the most aggressively underwritten loans in the “Alt A” and possibly Jumbo prime markets.

We do not believe prime loans will be materially affected. The pronounced problems in the subprime market will not disappear as quickly as they emerged; instead we believe it will be a long process that will take perhaps years to correct.

PIMCO has often compared the housing market to a supertanker – a massive ship which takes 23 miles to come to a stop after being thrown into full reverse. (couldn´t resist..)

We believe we are in the middle of a downturn, not at the end, and that the problems created by expensive housing, overstretched consumer finance, and years of Fed tightening have yet to take their full toll on the US housing market.

question the euphoria / disaster risk may rise

yup! maybe there could be some hangover in the year 2007 . with almost everybody bullish on almost everything something different could happen.....the following is not an unusual warning sign after a big party/volksfest especially in the rural areas in germany

denke das 2007 einige nen kater haben werden. nachdem nahezu alle bullish für fast alles sind dürften es zu enttäusuchungen kommen.

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Bennet Sedacca, president of Atlantic Advisors LLC in Winter Park, Florida, recalls being an equity trader during the October 1987 stock-market crash, .....

...... In the last three months he has reduced his holdings of stocks and raised investments in short-term Treasury and other securities on the view that another crash may be coming, two decades later.

``Disasters may be rare, but I see the kind of conditions that could make one happen,'' said Sedacca. ``It's like a big keg of dynamite with a fuse. I don't know when, but I think the conditions exist for the explosion to eventually occur.''

.... For Sedacca, the potential triggers ... the fallout from a glut of global cash.

For Phil Orlando, the chief equity market strategist for Federated Investors Inc., which manages $223 billion, it's the potential for a recession in the U.S. For David Mouser, who helps manage $350 million at Driehaus Capital Management, it's the buildup of debt to finance mergers and acquisitions.

``The single biggest risk facing global financial markets is a change in the benign credit-market conditions prevailing the last three years,'' said Mouser. ``We've had record liquidity in global markets the last few years that has driven all asset classes to continued new highs.''

Analyzing Risk
Morgan Stanley Capital International's World Index, tracking stocks in 23 developed countries, has risen 87 percent in the past four years. The firm's Emerging Markets Index has soared 212 percent. The U.S. Dow closed at a record high on Dec. 27, while Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index last week reached the highest since December 2000. thanks to http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/

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In the U.S., strategists at 12 of the biggest Wall Street firms forecast a rally this year. European stocks will rise,..., though at the slowest pace in five years. Japan's Topix index will reach its highest year-end level since 1989, .... thanks to http://www.wallstreetfollies.com/ (this cartoon is from 1999-2001. but when you hare abby these days is could be from cnbc in 2007. she always predicts plus 10% ....../ dieser cartoon stammt aus den jahren 1999-2001. könnte aber genausogut aus ihrem intwerview auf cnbc im letzten monat stammen. ihre standartprognose ist immer plus 10% ........)

So somebody's got to question the euphoria.

``If you invest without consideration of potential risks, that's representative of a dangerous complacency.''

`Massive Default'
Sedacca and Mouser point out that higher interest rates may curtail the supply of cash and credit.....( i think that higher risk premiums will do more damage than higher rates from the central banks/ denke das höhere risikoprämien der party ein ende machen werden und nicht höhere notenbankzinsen)

At the same time, the $643.4 billion U.S. trade deficit through October, on pace to set a record, threatens to further depress the dollar, fueling inflation and pushing interest rates higher, they said. ( i don´t hink that this will be a major trigger that will cause big problems in the short run. / denke nicht das dieses kurzfristig nen großen einfluß habne wird.)

Given the ease of borrowing now, acquirers may be taking on too much debt, said Chicago-based Mouser. That in turn could lead to another possible cause of a market collapse, a bond-market blowup. ( these highly leverraged takeovers will be great shorts when the ship has turned. just like the telcos back after the mania/ diese hochgehebelten übernahmen werden nachdem das sentiment sich geändert hat erstklassiger shortmöglichkeiten bieten. man muß dafür nur die entwicklung der hochverschuldeten telekeoms ansehen.)

U.S. Slowdown
Mergers and acquisitions reached a record $3.68 trillion in 2006, ..... Yields on junk bonds used to finance buyouts are near 10-year lows relative to U.S. Treasury securities, ...

``Our concern is the excessive leverage many of these firms are taking on will eventually lead to a massive default, similar to the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998,'' said Mouser.

Another source of tension is the slowing $12.5 trillion U.S. economy, the world's biggest. Gross domestic product expansion cooled to a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter from 5.6 percent in the first.

The risk is that the slowdown ``actually becomes a hard landing, or recession,'' ....Investors can hedge those risks by buying health-care, consumer-staples, utility and telecommunication-service stocks, he said. (unfortunately the utilities are also sky high. not only in price but also on record level at valuations and on record lows in dividend yields.....same is true for the staples..../ dummerweise sind die bewertungen der versorger auf topniveau. sowohl was preise, bewertungen und die niedrigeste dividenrendite seit jahren angeht....)

`More Vigilance'
Even the fact that 20 years have passed since the 1987 crash doesn't mean disaster is coming, said economist Tai Hui at Standard Chartered .....This time around, ``it will be a year that needs more vigilance and less complacency, but we do not see the justification for crisis,'' Hui wrote. ....

He said the U.S. economy should slow yet avoid falling into recession. He also noted that the 1987 crash ``turned out to be a great buying opportunity.'' .....

Goldman said he is especially concerned about Iran. .... `If you find somebody that isn't worried about Iran, see if they have a pulse,'' said Goldman.

"it´s different this time....sarcastic outlook 2007"

here are some forecasts for 2007. make your own mind which one will come true.......
hier meine vorschläge für mögliche szenarien. entscheidet selber..........

thanks to jeff saut/raymond james (click on headline for details )


größer/bigger http://www.raymondjames.com/images/inv_strat/inv_strat_061226_1lrg.gif

here is the detailed outlook from calculatet risk on housing http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2006/12/housing-in-2007.html

here the outlook from tim on stocks, energy, gold etc....http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2007/01/predictions-for-2007.html

here is a sarcastic forecast from charles hugh smith http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

but maybe with a little help from the timeless game "alan-opoly" this time it is really different........ aber evtl. kann ja auch dieses mal "alan-opoly" diese mal die gesetze der schwerkraft vorübergehend aussetzen......

i think there are more updates which include the gold edition "cut margin requirements for hedge funds "...marvels at how the SEC caved in to a New York Stock Exchange petition in mid-October to reduce margin requirements "for an already over-margined hedge fund community" http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/you-should-never-argue-about-crazy.html

or the platinum edition "eliminate the bank reserves" http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=292 etc.......

thanks very much to http://www.wallstreetfollies.com/ for the great image!

"Global Rebalance, Consumer Imbalance / us spillover risks / pimco"

a very detailed outlook from pimco. but i have to admit that they seem to be very optimistic in their assumption regarding the impact of the housing slump in the us. so i think their call for a soft landing is very optimistic. but they made it clear that the risk is to the downside.

sehr ausführliche vorschau auf 2007 von pimco. muß gestehen das ich denke das sie sehr optimistisch im zusammenhang mit dem rückgang im us immomarkt umgehen. denke dager das deren soft landing wohl eher optimistisch ist. immerhin sagt pimco das die risikien klar gen süden gehen.

The PIMCO outlook sees growth coming in at close to 2% in the U.S., Eurozone and Japan over the next 12 months. The U.S. growth forecast is below the consensus 2½% expectation, ...... The 2-2½% range for U.S. inflation, measured by the core PCE index, suggests a modest pace of disinflation next year, .........

Overall, this adds up to a soft landing for the U.S. economy and for the global economy following a period of robust global growth. The Federal Reserve and a number of other central banks remain focused on late cycle inflation risks, but we expect those concerns to subside. We expect a combination of continued sub-par growth and an improving inflation outlook to lead to Fed rate cuts, starting after the first quarter. ( not because inflation is low but the economy is heading south.../ aber nicht wegen der infaltion sondern wegen der schwachen us wirtschaft......)

Overall, we see the risks to our U.S. soft landing call as slanted to the downside. The U.S. housing market, which helped to support U.S. consumer spending and in turn the global economy earlier in the decade is now a significant source of global risk. Eurozone and Japanese economic performance has improved markedly. But growth that is driven by investment spending rather than consumer spending remains vulnerable if U.S. consumer spending slows significantly. The U.S. remains the world’s bass drum.

Partial Rebalancing
Slower U.S. growth means that the world economy has become a bit more balanced. ...... In the past two quarters the Eurozone economy has grown at a 3.1% annualized rate, faster than the 2.4% growth rate in the U.S.

Within the U.S., growth has become more balanced, shown in Figure 2, owing to the moderation in consumer spending and the housing correction. U.S. consumer spending has cooled, growing by 2.7% year over year in the third quarter, compared with an average of about 3.5% since the start of 2004 and 3.7% over the past decade. Over the past two years U.S. GDP and U.S. domestic demand have expanded at the same rate. In contrast, over the past 10 years, domestic demand growth outstripped GDP growth by about half a percentage point per year. The current account deficit, which increased from 1% of GDP in 1996 to more than 7% in the fourth quarter of 2005 has since stabilized below that level.

The U.S. housing sector is in recession, with residential investment subtracting about 1 percentage point from the annualized GDP growth rate over the past two quarters. PIMCO’s housing experts expect that the housing market correction will be a long and drawn out process. Over the cyclical horizon, we expect residential investment to continue to subtract from GDP at a somewhat lesser rate. The labor market remains strong but over time we expect the weakness in the housing and related sectors to feed into job losses. The impact of the housing market on related sectors can already be seen with the ISM manufacturing index dipping below 50, reflecting the impact of the housing market inventory correction and also the Detroit car manufacturers’ woes.

Consumer Imbalance
The clearest sign of decoupling in the U.S. lies in the fact that the ISM non-manufacturing survey indicates the service sector remains strong, to date.(only a matter of time .../ nur ne frage der zeit....) The clearest sign of global decoupling lies in the fact that business surveys in the Eurozone and Japan remain at elevated levels, even though the expectations components have weakened.

Strong business confidence is reflected in strong investment spending. Gross fixed capital formation in plant and equipment has grown at close to a 6% rate in Japan since the start of 2004. Eurozone overall gross fixed capital formation grew at close to a 3% rate over the same period.

But as Figures 3 and 4 show, consumer spending has lagged, growing at about a 1.5% rate in the Eurozone and a bit slower than that in Japan. In part this reflects weak wage growth, which has been held down by both cyclical and secular factors, even though employment growth has strengthened this year.

On PIMCO’s baseline forecasts, a U.S. soft landing and growth at trend in the Eurozone and Japan next year will hopefully facilitate a handover to consumer spending outside the U.S., which is crucial to a rebalancing of the global economy over time. It would be easier to be confident that global rebalancing would continue during continued sub-par U.S. growth – or if there was a hard landing in the U.S. – if consumer spending rather than investment was already driving growth in the Eurozone and Japan. Business confidence and investment plans are likely to be highly sensitive to weaker than expected global growth...... (lots of if´s......./ ne menge wenn´s......)

U.S. Spillover Risk

The key uncertainty in judging the U.S. outlook is whether the housing market inventory correction will prove to be relatively well contained, or whether there will be domestic spillover effects to consumer spending........ The lagged impact of below-trend growth, including expected continued contraction in housing and housing-related sectors, is expected to translate into job losses. here is more on the jobs picture and the ripple effect http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/anteil-immobiliensektor-am.html,http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/search?q=ripple, http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/search?q=tools

Trying to assess the impact of flat or lower home prices on consumer spending is more of a walk in the dark. A large part of the problem is that there is no U.S. precedent for the current conjunction of a housing correction, a personal savings rate of zero and the uncertainty created by the boom in mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) in recent years and its uncertain relationship with consumer spending. Therefore, it is necessary to be modest in making a forecast.(better be realistic.../ lieber realistisch...)

PIMCO’s forecast of a U.S. soft landing includes the expectation of a moderate slowdown in consumer spending next year, with the negative ongoing impact from the housing market partially offset by wage growth and the boost to real incomes from lower energy prices. But there is a great degree of uncertainty in the outlook.......

The wealth effect from rising asset prices, and the greater ease of liquefying house price gains, has meant that, in aggregate, U.S. households have stopped saving out of income. Savings rates are hard to forecast, but the current stagnation of house prices and a reassessment of the rate of future house price appreciation will put upward pressure on the savings rate over time. ( fro here on there is only one way t go..., kann eh nur noch nach oben gehen....)

U.S. consumer spending has proved largely impervious to the forces of gravity in recent years. If MEW turns out to have been an important driver of consumer spending, then the leveling off of house prices and associated drop in equity withdrawal may have a more direct, mechanical and pronounced impact on consumer spending. .....(i´m reading this correct. they put an if in front of the mew impact. what a joke. just look at the mew impact on gdp.../ kann meinen augne nicht glauben. die stllen in ihrer vorhersage für 07 den einfluß des mew in frage. bei dieser grafik schwer zu verstehen.....)

The experience of the U.K. and Australia offer both comfort and warning. Consumer spending growth decelerated when the housing markets slowed in those countries in 2004-2005, but it did not grind to a halt. But it is not clear how useful those examples will prove as guides. The U.K. was helped by buoyant global growth and Australia by the commodities boom. Neither had the same huge rise in housing inventory that we have seen in the U.S.

Global Spillover Risk
Canada and Mexico are the economies most directly exposed to weaker U.S. growth. But in thinking about the impact of a weaker U.S. growth impulse on the global economy, direct trade links are only the starting point.

Figure 5 summarizes the ways in which weaker U.S. growth can impact the global economy, including trade, business confidence and a broad array of financial market linkages. Indeed, U.S. economic data and associated market movements at turning points in the U.S. cycle tend to have a greater impact on Eurozone and Japanese markets than the local data. ......

the Eurozone is experiencing another form of spillover, in the form of the euro’s appreciation against the dollar.

A U.S. slowdown as a result of a U.S.-centric housing correction is very different to the 2001 experience of a common shock in the form of a stock market/capital spending bust. While business investment is strong in the Eurozone and Japan, it is vulnerable in the event that below-consensus U.S. growth feeds into weaker business confidence around the globe.....

.... As for monetary policy, one question is how long the window of opportunity remains open for the Bank of Japan and possibly the European Central Bank to raise rates further. Fed rate cuts would send a signal of external risks. In the event of weaker than expected growth, the BoJ will be extremely reluctant to cut rates and past experience would suggest that the ECB would be in no hurry at all to react.

Monetary policymakers in English speaking countries, which are further ahead in the rate cycle and, like the Fed, currently focused on near-term inflation risks, would be the first to follow the Fed’s lead.

China has provided an increasingly important source of demand growth in Asia owing to its rapid economic expansion and openness to trade. The U.S. has accounted for about 20% of overall global growth since 2002, measured at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates, while China has contributed 30% of global growth. ......In spite of its rapid growth, in nominal U.S. dollar terms, China’s economy is not much larger than the U.K.

Since trade accounts for such a large share of China’s economy, the gap with the U.S. in terms of imports is much narrower than the GDP gap. In October, U.S. imports were worth about $182bn while China’s came in at about $64bn. But a large share of that import bill represents intermediate goods shipped in from China’s neighbors to be re-exported in the form of finished goods to the U.S., meaning that independent of the Chinese authorities’ efforts to slow investment spending, slower U.S. growth should have an impact on Chinese import demand. The U.S. trade deficit stood at $59bn in the month of October. China’s trade surplus was $24bn. Over time, continued growth and a shift towards consumption will mean that China will indeed emerge as a second global bass drum. For now it is the high-hat cymbal.

To give an idea of the amount of ground that would have to be made up in the event of a more pronounced slowdown in U.S. consumer spending, it is worth noting that U.S. consumer spending accounts for about 21% of world GDP, compared with 14% for the Eurozone and a similar amount for the whole of Asia, including Japan and China. As for the oil exporting countries, the OECD2 points out that in spite of the big rise in petrodollars over the past few years, merchandise exports from its member countries to OPEC have been decelerating since early 2005. Oil exporters have taken over from developing Asian nations as the largest component of the global savings glut, measured by their combined current account surpluses.http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/petrodollar-pegor-why-all-talk-about.html

Over time, strong growth in China and other emerging market countries will reduce the role of the U.S. in setting the global tempo – a long-term decoupling. ....... Every country can’t run a current account surplus: the world is a closed economy.

"this expansion is getting old"

this is from ""year of transition". the 2007 outlook from rosenberg/merrill lynch. please click on the headline to get to bill cara´s site for more.

das is ein auszug aud dem werk von rosenberg/merrill lynch für das jahr 2007. bitte auf die überschrift klicken um auf die seite von bill cara zu gehen um den rest zu lesen.

thanks/danke an bill cara




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