Saturday, August 12, 2006

update KANAM / MILLS "XANADOUBTS"

update zu immobilienblasen: mills corp / mls kanam und scope

modelle von
http://www.mack-cali.com/development/development_projects/xanadu.phtml





habe noch eine artikel zu dem problemobjekt xanadu gefunden
kann den link leider nicht hinterlegen. ist ne wortgleiche abschrift.bitte auf street.com suchen

XANADOUBTS

another person involved in the mills bidding war says the key issue is not so much the joint verture agreement with kanam, but the question of how to value the meadowland / xanadu project (spricht schon bände das mills trotz des drastischen kursverfalls in den letzten 12 monaten nicht übernommen worden ist. wenn nicht mal hedgefonds und vor allem nicht mal private equity fonfs verzweifelt genug sind um mills zu kaufen muß man in der tat schlimmes befürchten. ausserdem sind gerade in den letzten moanten einige übernahmen und fusionen im reitsektor über die bühne gegangen ohne das mills profiteiren konnte. der grund scheint jetzt ja überdeutlich zu sein.

construction delays and lack of leasing news continue to push back the delivery date of the massive retail and entertainment project, wich is being built across the river from ney york city in east rutherford, n.j.

nussbuam, the bank of america analyst, is now forecasting a stabilized yield on xanadu of 5%, down from his previous estimate of 7%. mills management originally said the project would yield 9% or higher. nussaum now expects the overall cost of the project to rise to $1.5 billion, up from his previous estimate of $1.2 billion (aktuelle schätzung $2.0 billion! die renditeerwartung dürfe bei den baukosten gecshichte sein. das nenne ich mal ne planverfehlung......)

barry wincour, editor of reit zone publications, recently wrote in his newsletter that mills burn rate at meadowlands / xanadu is roughly $10 millions a week, citing unnamed sources

wenn man jetzt noch wie ich davon ausgeht das zumindest der us konsument /und damit wohl auch die gesamte usa) heftigst in die rezession rasen droht das riesenprojekt zum debakel erster klasse zu werden.


gruß
jan-martin

nachtrag:

vom 04.05.2006

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2006-05/artikel-6375285.asp

The Mills Corporation Receives Commitment of Up to $2.23 Billion from Goldman Sachs as Part of a Series of Initiatives by the Company to Boost Liquidity and Flexibility

The Mills Corporation (Nachrichten) (NYSE:MLS), a developer, owner and manager of a diversified global portfolio of retail destinations, today announced that it has obtained a commitment from Goldman Sachs (Nachrichten/Aktienkurs) Mortgage Company (GSMC) to provide it with financing of up to $2.23 billion. The commitment, the latest in a series of initiatives by the Company intended to boost its liquidity and flexibility, consists of a senior term loan of up to approximately $1.484 billion and first-mortgage facilities totaling approximately $746 million. (anscheinend umscshuldungen am laufenden band, wohl auch nur möglich weil z.zt. der markt im geld ertrinkt)

The senior term loan carries an interest rate of LIBOR plus 225 basis points, subject to upward adjustment if certain specified contingencies are not met. The first-mortgage facilities would carry various fixed and floating interest rates. (man muß sich das mal vorstellen, nur diesen geringen aufschlag für so ein extremes unternehmensrisiko. der markt fühlt(e)? sich wohl einfach zu sicher da jahrelang keine probleme angefallen sind. selbst die general motors anleihen habe sich schnell erholt. die risikoprämien werden sicher künftig anziehen)

The Goldman Sachs commitment is subject to a number of contingencies, including the receipt of certain third party consents, due diligence and the absence of certain material adverse changes with respect to The Mills or the financial markets. The commitment is described in a Form 8-K filed by the Company today with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

If the financing is consummated, the proceeds will be used to repay the outstanding debt under the Company's line of credit and term loans and fund certain property-level debt. The remaining proceeds, estimated to be approximately $385 million after the payment of estimated transaction fees and expenses payable at the closing of the facilities and before the establishment of an interest reserve escrow, would be used to provide for working capital requirements and general corporate purposes in accordance with an approved budget.

The senior term loan, which would be secured and recourse to the Company and certain of its subsidiaries, would have a maturity of December 31, 2006 with two extension alternatives. As detailed in the Form 8-K filed today, one alternative could provide extensions to June 30, 2007, subject to the fulfillment of certain conditions, while an alternative option would permit the extension of the loan to June 30, 2008 if certain conditions, including a pay-down of the senior term loan of at least $850 million, are met. Either extension would require, among other things, the Company to have filed its Form 10-K for 2005 and meet certain projected liquidity requirements.(das dürfte sich nach freitag wohl erledigt haben)

"This financing commitment is part of a series of important initiatives we have implemented in the past several months. We believe this financing commitment would provide us with greater flexibility than our existing facilities," said Chairman and CEO Laurence C. Siegel. "As we continue to pursue the exploration of strategic alternatives, this facility would provide us with additional liquidity as we continue to run our business." (makulatur nach nur einem quartal!, ist glau´be ich der gleiche typ der bereits beim call im letzten jahr alles runtergespielt hat.)

das so etwas goldmann sachs (dazu auch) immobilienblasen: investmentbank oder verkappter hedgefonds? passiert wundert mich nicht sonderlich. die scheinen generell hohen risiko zu gehen. bin mal gespannt wie evtl. ausfälle in zukünftigen quartalen verbucht werden. bisher hat es immer "ausserordentliche aufwendungen" die dann nicht das schöne proforma ergebnis belasten. (frag mal bei morgan stanley und dem flugzeugleasinggeschäft nach).

evtl. hat gs diese kreditlinien aber auch bereits verbrieft und an renditegetriebene /offizielle und nicht investmentbanken :-) hedgefonds weitergegeben.

gruß

jan-martin

neues update hier: immobilienblasen: wall street journal zu mills / kanam

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