another quarter, another warning at toll

thats the "toll" way of stabilisation.........how often tol was the most optimistic on the outlook especially for the "immune" luxury segment...... credit is tightening!

so sieht also bei toll ne stabilisierung aus.....ich kann nicht emhr zählen wie oft tol sich besonders optimistisch für den bereich der luxuximmobilien der angeblich "immun" gegen rückschläge sein soll.....die kreditverknappung beginnt zu wirken!

Toll Brothers: Difficult conditions in most of our markets
Toll Brothers: Won't hit quarterly, annual guidance from Feb
Toll Brothers writedowns before tax seen $90 mln to $130 mln
Toll Brothers: Traffic down 20% on a per-community basis
Toll Brothers: Traffic this quarter flat on gross basis
Toll Brothers: Stricter lending hitting affordability
Toll Brothers Q2 backlog down 32% to $4.15 billion
Toll Brothers Q2 home-building revenue down 19% to $1.17 bln
Toll Brothers Q2 contracts down 25% to $1.17 billion
Toll Brothers: Sees a profit in the second quarter


``We believe that fewer than 2% of our buyers use sub-prime loans. However, the impact of stricter lending standards arising from problems in the sub-prime market is negatively affecting affordability at lower price points. This, in turn, can impact the entire 'housing food chain', including some of our potential customers' ability to sell their existing homes. This, coupled with a lack of buyer confidence, may have served to impede the glimmers of a rebound we had started to see in early February.

this was the pojection from feb. on write-downs. http://tinyurl.com/2yha4q

This projection assumes future write-downs of $60 million in the final three quarters of FY 2007, although the final number could be significantly higher or lower

and today´s number already almost doubles the number for the full year......bringing the total to over $207 million (midpoint of guidance plus $97 million from the q1)......and counting

und alleine die heutige nummer verdoppelt die prognostizierte jahreszahl......... mit den 97 mio aus q1 sind wir bei der mitte der prognose bei 207 mio$ und der zähler läuft weiter.....

good that he has only sold $19 million since his latest guidance..........
wie schön das er seit der letzten prognose mal eben 19 mio an aktien vertickert hat....

that´s nothing compared to the pace of selling during the past years with close to $ 400 mio......

das ist aber nichts im vergleich zur bilanz der letzten jahre mit fast 400 mio $........

http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/794170.htm

so now after the low pe ratios argument is gone, the bookvalue (close $23 befor the news) well under the stockprice, the fundamentals weakening etc ....i think the remaining spin will be consolidation and buyouts etc...... (of course from the same people...)

nachdem nun alle argumente der bullen wie niedrige kgv´s, hoher buchwert, grausame fundamentaldaten sich in luft auslösen wird wohl nun probiert die konsolidierung oder natürlich mögliche buyouts als argument hervorgekramt (selbstredend von den gleichen leuten....)

more from minyanville http://tinyurl.com/2gflbr

here the Earnings Call Transcript via seeking alpha http://tinyurl.com/35qx4m

disclosure: short several homebuilder

where is your stabilisation mr. toll?

should be good enough to lift the stock at least 5%..../sarcasm off..... plus 5% sollten heute drinnen sein....

this is a quote from december robert toll / zitat robert toll

Right now is a great time to buy a new luxury home. Builders are motivated to sell their specs and the fundamentals that typically lead our industry out of a slowdown are already in place. Interest rates are near historic lows, unemployment is near an all-time low and the stock market is setting records."

looks like not everybody agrees with mr. toll.

FY 2007's first-quarter home building revenues were approximately $1.09 billion, a decline of 19% compared to the first-quarter record of $1.34 billion in FY 2006

FY 2007's first-quarter-end backlog was approximately $4.15 billion, a decline of 30% compared to the first-quarter record of $5.95 billion in FY 2006.

FY 2007's first-quarter net signed contracts were approximately $749 million, a decline of 34% compared to FY 2006's first-quarter total of $1.14 billion

Net of cancellations, first quarter contracts totaled 1,027 units, down 33% from 1,544 units in the first quarter of FY

with that kind of fundamentals/performance no wonder the builders are flying high again.......

bei diesen daten kein wunder das die builder wieder abheben........

and here the usual spin attempt

Robert I. Toll, chairman and chief executive officer, stated: ``It appears that the pace of cancellations is starting to abate. First quarter FY 2007 cancellations totaled 436 versus 585 in fourth quarter FY 2006 and this quarter's cancellation rate of 29.8% was lower than the 36.9% cancellation rate last quarter. However, we are still well above the Company's historical average of about 7%. (spin attempt failed....but maybe some wall street analysts will freak out and upgrade the stock on this news....evtl. fahren ja einige wall street analysten darauf ab......)

and when you divide sales to communities the salesrate almost got halved from 6 to just over 3!

wenn man das ganze ins verhältnis zu den erföffneten baugebieten setzte hat sich das tempo von 6 auf knapp über 3 fast halbiert!

``We ended the quarter with 320 communities compared to 300 at FYE 2006 and 258 at first-quarter-end 2006

We ended the quarter with approximately 70,000 lots under control compared to our peak of 91,200 at 2006's second-quarter-end and 73,800 lots at FYE 2006

``We continue to believe that buyer confidence is the key to a turnaround in the new home market. It appears that the media's sentiment toward the housing market is becoming more balanced and their messages are making customers aware that, in the current climate of attractive interest rates, motivated sellers and a generally healthy economy, now is a good time to buy a home

disclosure: short diverse homebuilder