Wednesday, May 09, 2007

another quarter, another warning at toll

thats the "toll" way of often tol was the most optimistic on the outlook especially for the "immune" luxury segment...... credit is tightening!

so sieht also bei toll ne stabilisierung aus.....ich kann nicht emhr zählen wie oft tol sich besonders optimistisch für den bereich der luxuximmobilien der angeblich "immun" gegen rückschläge sein soll.....die kreditverknappung beginnt zu wirken!

Toll Brothers: Difficult conditions in most of our markets
Toll Brothers: Won't hit quarterly, annual guidance from Feb
Toll Brothers writedowns before tax seen $90 mln to $130 mln
Toll Brothers: Traffic down 20% on a per-community basis
Toll Brothers: Traffic this quarter flat on gross basis
Toll Brothers: Stricter lending hitting affordability
Toll Brothers Q2 backlog down 32% to $4.15 billion
Toll Brothers Q2 home-building revenue down 19% to $1.17 bln
Toll Brothers Q2 contracts down 25% to $1.17 billion
Toll Brothers: Sees a profit in the second quarter

``We believe that fewer than 2% of our buyers use sub-prime loans. However, the impact of stricter lending standards arising from problems in the sub-prime market is negatively affecting affordability at lower price points. This, in turn, can impact the entire 'housing food chain', including some of our potential customers' ability to sell their existing homes. This, coupled with a lack of buyer confidence, may have served to impede the glimmers of a rebound we had started to see in early February.

this was the pojection from feb. on write-downs.

This projection assumes future write-downs of $60 million in the final three quarters of FY 2007, although the final number could be significantly higher or lower

and today´s number already almost doubles the number for the full year......bringing the total to over $207 million (midpoint of guidance plus $97 million from the q1)......and counting

und alleine die heutige nummer verdoppelt die prognostizierte jahreszahl......... mit den 97 mio aus q1 sind wir bei der mitte der prognose bei 207 mio$ und der zähler läuft weiter.....

good that he has only sold $19 million since his latest guidance..........
wie schön das er seit der letzten prognose mal eben 19 mio an aktien vertickert hat....

that´s nothing compared to the pace of selling during the past years with close to $ 400 mio......

das ist aber nichts im vergleich zur bilanz der letzten jahre mit fast 400 mio $........

so now after the low pe ratios argument is gone, the bookvalue (close $23 befor the news) well under the stockprice, the fundamentals weakening etc ....i think the remaining spin will be consolidation and buyouts etc...... (of course from the same people...)

nachdem nun alle argumente der bullen wie niedrige kgv´s, hoher buchwert, grausame fundamentaldaten sich in luft auslösen wird wohl nun probiert die konsolidierung oder natürlich mögliche buyouts als argument hervorgekramt (selbstredend von den gleichen leuten....)

more from minyanville

here the Earnings Call Transcript via seeking alpha

disclosure: short several homebuilder

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did you follow the action on CFC yesterday? Unreal.

Can't wait to see what happens today with Toll. Up to $32 or down to $27?

P'cola Popper

3:55 AM  
Blogger jmf said...


i have taken the last few days off.

i think the latest piece from hussman sums ist up

the greater fool! :-)

4:14 AM  

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