Thursday, February 08, 2007

where is your stabilisation mr. toll?

should be good enough to lift the stock at least 5%..../sarcasm off..... plus 5% sollten heute drinnen sein....


this is a quote from december robert toll / zitat robert toll
Right now is a great time to buy a new luxury home. Builders are motivated to sell their specs and the fundamentals that typically lead our industry out of a slowdown are already in place. Interest rates are near historic lows, unemployment is near an all-time low and the stock market is setting records."
looks like not everybody agrees with mr. toll.
FY 2007's first-quarter home building revenues were approximately $1.09 billion, a decline of 19% compared to the first-quarter record of $1.34 billion in FY 2006
FY 2007's first-quarter-end backlog was approximately $4.15 billion, a decline of 30% compared to the first-quarter record of $5.95 billion in FY 2006.
FY 2007's first-quarter net signed contracts were approximately $749 million, a decline of 34% compared to FY 2006's first-quarter total of $1.14 billion
Net of cancellations, first quarter contracts totaled 1,027 units, down 33% from 1,544 units in the first quarter of FY
with that kind of fundamentals/performance no wonder the builders are flying high again.......
bei diesen daten kein wunder das die builder wieder abheben........
and here the usual spin attempt
Robert I. Toll, chairman and chief executive officer, stated: ``It appears that the pace of cancellations is starting to abate. First quarter FY 2007 cancellations totaled 436 versus 585 in fourth quarter FY 2006 and this quarter's cancellation rate of 29.8% was lower than the 36.9% cancellation rate last quarter. However, we are still well above the Company's historical average of about 7%. (spin attempt failed....but maybe some wall street analysts will freak out and upgrade the stock on this news....evtl. fahren ja einige wall street analysten darauf ab......)
and when you divide sales to communities the salesrate almost got halved from 6 to just over 3!
wenn man das ganze ins verhältnis zu den erföffneten baugebieten setzte hat sich das tempo von 6 auf knapp über 3 fast halbiert!
``We ended the quarter with 320 communities compared to 300 at FYE 2006 and 258 at first-quarter-end 2006
We ended the quarter with approximately 70,000 lots under control compared to our peak of 91,200 at 2006's second-quarter-end and 73,800 lots at FYE 2006
``We continue to believe that buyer confidence is the key to a turnaround in the new home market. It appears that the media's sentiment toward the housing market is becoming more balanced and their messages are making customers aware that, in the current climate of attractive interest rates, motivated sellers and a generally healthy economy, now is a good time to buy a home

disclosure: short diverse homebuilder

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