China´s National Bureau Of Statistics Is Funny.....

This kind of "accounting" makes even the BLS & BEA jealous.....

Diese Zahlen können es fast mit "Berchnungsmodellen" ( denke hier besonders an den Arbeitsmarktbericht und das GDP ) der USA aufnehmen........ Allen die immer noch auf dem Trip sind das China die Lokomotive für die Erholung sein wird sollten sich nicht von den offiziellen Zahlen blenden lassen und Ihre Erwartungen merklich zurückschrauben......

China’s National Bureau of Statistics is gathered in a “scientific and realistic method,” Ma Jiantang, the agency’s director, said at a briefing in Beijing yesterday

Albert Edwards LOL China FT Alphaville

As the debate over how bad things in China are rages on, growing Sino-sceptic Albert Edwards offers his two pennies on the country’s latest statistics.

Well, to be accurate, he laughs out loud at them:

That this outturn was bang in line with the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg makes it all the more unbelievable in my mind. All other economic data worldwide have been surprising massively on the downside and China should be no exception. A few hours earlier, for example, South Korea reported Q4 GDP had declined a hefty 5.6% QoQ, massively worse than a Reuter’s consensus which looked for a contraction of 2.7%! I naively thought that this QoQ decline was already annualized, but it was not. On a US style of reporting, the South Korean economy contracted at a 20% annualised rate in Q4. Asia is in depression. Whatever the heavily manipulated Chinese GDP is telling us, that economy must now be contracting. The Yuan needs to be devalued.

So the key thing that’s fishy according to Edwards is just how bang on line the numbers were. As for Tim Geithner’s bizarre declaration on Thursday that China was manipulating its currency (presumably a call for China to allow the yuan to appreciate?) Alberts actually believes the reverse is needed. The yuan must be devalued.

And he’s got a point. As he highlights, inter-regional trade within Asia is what appears to be suffering the most (blowing all notions of “decoupling” firmly out the window). This is clearly reflected by the sharp fall in Japanese exports, which fell no less than 35 per cent year-on-year in the last quatrer according to the latest figures. As Alberts stresses (his emphasis):

…we cannot highlight strongly enough how truly mindboggling Japan’s collapse in exports to China are. Last July they were expanding at a 16% yoy pace. Now they are contracting at a 35% yoy rate! This is a phenomenon throughout the region. Hence despite the notoriously manipulated Chinese GDP data showing a shocking slowdown in GDP growth to 6.8% yoy, I would eat my hat if the Chinese economy was doing anything other than contracting right now.

So there you have it readers, if the Chinese economy proves not to be contracting Mr. Edwards will - for he has said so - eat his hat.


> Combine the economic slump with the suppression from the comminust party you have a very "explosive" mixture..... And i think the "events" in China will easily rival the protest we are already facing in parts of Europe ( see European governments face protests over economy / Reuters )

> Wenn man die Talfahrt jetzt mit der Unterdrückung der herrschenden Partei kombiniert dürfte das für eine extrem explosive "Stimmung" sorgen. Teile Europas machen gerade vor was trotz Zensur auch in China ans Licht kommen wird ( siehe European governments face protests over economy / Reuters )

I´ll Bet The BLS Will Miss This One....

I just want to remind you that i´m with Mish on Inflation ( see Inflation: What the heck is it? ). I also want to highlight a world class rant from Aaron Krowne on this topic. The Truth About Inflation .

But when you go with the "official" definition of inflation ( rising prices ) and take the history of BLS calculations or how Tim from The Mess That Greenspan Made has described it "Guantanamo-style torture of the inflation statistics by government economists" into account i doubt that they will adjust for such "complex" things like smaller box sizes .... :-).

Bekanntermaßen sehe ich die Definition von Inflation wie Mish ( siehe Inflation: What the heck is it? ). Darüberhinaus möchte ich Euch diesen wirklich gelungenen Rundumschlag von Aaron Krowne zum Thema ans Herz legen The Truth About Inflation .

Wenn man aber der offiziellen Sprachregelung ( steigende Preise ) folgt und dann die äußerst "kreative" oder wie The Mess That Greenspan Made es ausdrückt "Guantanamo-style torture of the inflation statistics by government economists" in die Betrachtung miteinbezieht habe ich starke Zweifel ob diese Preiserhöhungen "enttarnt" werden...... :-)


Thanks to Wall Street Follies

Smaller Box, Similar Price
WSJ: Many food manufacturers are retooling assembly lines to produce smaller versions of everything from cereal boxes and ice-cream cartons to mayonnaise jars, margarine tubs and cheese packages. By giving consumers less for roughly the same price, food executives hope to keep consumers from moving to cheaper brands.

Consider General Mills Inc.'s Cheerios cereal. When the American Farm Bureau Federation sent members into supermarkets to conduct its second-quarter food-price survey, the 10-ounce box of Cheerios had vanished. So the volunteer shoppers turned to the box nearest in size, 8.9 ounces.

The smaller box cost $2.98 on average, up from $2.86 charged by the stores for the bigger box a year earlier. On a per-ounce basis, the retail price of Cheerios jumped 17% to 33.5 cents in the second quarter from 28.6 cents a year earlier.

General Mills spokesman Tom Forsythe said moves by the Minneapolis company can't alone explain the big retail-price jump. It's possible that supermarkets, which set the retail price, are taking advantage of an opportunity to add some margin of their own.

David Mackay, Kellogg's chief executive officer, said in an interview last week that his company has shrunk about 10% of its U.S. breakfast-cereal boxes by an average of 2.4 ounces. With the company's input costs climbing 9% this year, Mr. Mackay said he doubts grain prices will ever drop back to where they were just a few years ago.