Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Gold’s Post-Bubble Performance In The UK, US And Japan.

I still think that we will see deflation in the US and other parts of the world but in the end i think the report from Dresdner is spot on....... Needless to say that i call myself a goldbug and have "little" faith in any fiat currency...... It´s probably helpful ( often overlooked ) to note that Gold in reaching new highs in almost every other world currency besides the $ ( see Goldchart in €, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Yen etc ) . Would be nice to see a goldchart vs the Icelandic Krona or the Forint......

Ich bin nach wie vor der Meinung das es in naher Zukunft eine Deflation in weiten Teilen der Welt geben wird. Im Endeffekt wird es aber zu dem im Dresdner Report geschilderten Ergebnis kommen...... Wohl überflüssig zu erwähnen das ich ein Goldbug bin und mein Misstrauen hinsichtlich Währungen nicht nur auf den $ ( obwohl dort extrem ausgeprägt ...) beschränkt ist.....Werde zumindest nicht mehr ganz so offen belächelt wie noch vor einigen Jahren..... PS: Bei der Qualität der heimischen Wirtschaftspresse ist es wenig überraschend das oftmals lediglich der Goldpreis in $ behandelt wird. Dabei wird wie nicht anders zu erwarten in schöner Regelmäßigkeit ausser Acht gelassen das Gold in den anderen Leitwährungen momentan nahe historischen Hochs notiert ( siehe Goldchart in €, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Yen etc ) . Habe leider keinen Goldchart vs islänsiche Krone oder ungarischen Forint auftreiben können......

Thanks again to Wall Street Follies

FT Alphaville

One way to combat the mess of a bubble popping is, as Dresdner puts it,“reducing confidence in the value of money” — i.e. creating inflation.

What the rise in the US and UK gold price tells us is that those two countries (assuming gold is in fact acting as an inflationary hedge here) are not shying away from their inflationary task.

They are, unlike Japan, really going for it.

Dresdner - Gold performance

Back to Dresdner:

Japan had no Japanese precedent to study. The last experience of deflation was buried so far in the past that anyone predicting a recurrence could be safely dismissed as a crank. The BoJ was dominated by inflation vigilantes who bitterly rued inflating the bubble and were determined at all costs to avoid a repeat. They remained far behind the curve and allowed growth in the monetary base to collapse. The contrast with the United States could not be clearer. Ben Bernanke is an authority on the historical experiences of deflation, and in his famous speech of 2002 laid out his playbook for all to see.
And to conclude:

No policy response to a post-bubble bust can ever be free of unintended consequences. The speed and scale of the current economic fiasco as good as ensures that the mistakes will be serious. The key question for investors is whether over the long haul their bias will be deflationary (too little, too late) or inflationary (too much, too fast). Given the different pressures that policymakers are working under, we find it hard to believe that the world as a whole will choose the Japanese path.
UPDATE: Prefect timing.....

If you still have some doubts make sure you read the latest (desperate) Fed effort via Naked Capitalism Fed Ponders Issuing Debt to Finance Its Mushrooming Balance Sheet

Sollte immer noch leichte Zweifel bestehen dem empfehle ich einen Blick auf den neuesten (verzweifelten) Versuch der Fed zu werfen Fed Ponders Issuing Debt to Finance Its Mushrooming Balance Sheet Via Naked Capitalism

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7 Comments:

Blogger jmf said...

via FT Alphaville


Treasuries bubble danger

As noted, the flight to safety is taking on epic proportions. With that in mind our thoughts are going to what may happen next, or specifically, the implications of a Treasuries bubble. Here’s one view from Monument Securities (our emphasis):

Though a Treasuries bubble might appear unproblematic, however, its bursting could turn out to be more dangerous than the collapse of any other kind of bubble. If confidence eventually returned to other markets, investors would shun the low yields on Treasuries. The Fed would then face the choice of monetising most or all of the Treasuries market, as funds fled to higher-return investments, or else of allowing Treasuries yields to race higher. Because foreign holdings represent a significant proportion of the stock of Treasuries outstanding, a collapse in Treasuries prices might soon be reflected in a collapse of the US dollar, with the accompanying threat of hyper-inflation in the USA and depression elsewhere. At that point, many investors might wish they still enjoyed the comparative calm of the ‘credit crunch’.

2:48 AM  
Anonymous Bathroom Fittings UK said...

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11:02 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Bathroom,

thanks for the kind words.

It´s a tragedy that Gordon Brown sold the majority of the UK´s gold reserves within 5% of the bottom a few years ago.....

This kind of wisdom tells you everything you need to know about this guy.....

Nice to see that he is now almost on daily basis throwing out ideas how to solve the current crises that happened under his watch.....

Same is of course true for the rest of the western world . Especially for our finance minister Steinbrück who sat on several boards of banks that are now insolvent without the bailouts he is now denouncing .....

You really cannot make this up......

5:55 AM  
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9:16 PM  
Blogger jmf said...


Switzerland may have to print money to stave off deflation
FT Alphaville

The Swiss National Bank has cut interest rates to 0.5pc and opened the door for emergency stimulus, becoming the first country in Europe to flirt with zero policy rates, the Telegraph reported. Thomas Jordan, a board member of the SNB, said the bank was mulling extreme measures to stabilise the financial system and cushion the economy as it falls into recession next year. “We could engage in quantitative easing and we could intervene in foreign exchange markets or we could buy up bonds and try to influence long-term interest rates. All these options are open and we’re not limited in any way in choosing from among these instruments,” he said. The Telegraph described quantitative easing, a monetary policy pioneered by the Japanese, as “tantamount to printing money”.

10:33 PM  
Blogger jmf said...


California’s debt downgraded amid budget crisis
FT Alphaville

California on Thursday prepared to suspend $5bn in financing for schools, roads, power projects and levee repairs after the state’s mounting budget crisis led Standard & Poor’s to downgrade some of its short-term debt. In the past, California has been able to raise money in the bond markets to pay for infrastructure projects. However, with the markets effectively closed to the state, it will use funds earmarked for infrastructure to cover short-term obligations. Bill Lockyer, California’s treasurer, told the Financial Times the state planned to shift $5bn in infrastructure funds to short-term obligations in the near-term. He said it was working on plans to re-allocate an additional $7.5bn in such funds.

10:38 PM  
Blogger jmf said...


Chart Dow / Gold

6:25 AM  

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