"Enron-Esque Characteristics" Hiding An Even More Explosive Credit Growth In China

Ob boy......Looks like the Chinese have learnt quite a bit from their western rivals....;-) All this confirms my "sceptical" view on the sustainability of the recent recovery in China...... Nice to see that this kind of creative accounting is rewarded with a big valuation premium.... You really cannot make this up..... For an up to date inside view on China i highly recommend the blog China Financial Markets from Michael Pettis. A must read.

Sieht so aus als wenn die Chinesen in Sachen Bankenbilanzierung schnell vom Westen gelernt haben.....;-) All das bestätigt mich in meiner "skeptischen" Sichtweise das was momentan in China abgeht nachhaltig ist.... Immerhin ist es nett zu sehen das solch "Kreativität" momentan mit einem gewaltigen Bewertungsaufschlag gehandelt wird..... Paßt hervorragend zum sonstigen Marktgeschehen.... ;-)Wer einen erstklassigen und vor allem zeitnahen Blick auf das Geschehen in China haben möchte für den sollte China Financial Markets von Michael Pettis Pflichtlektüre sein....

Then and now: Banks and their book value Graph FT Alphaville

China Cracks Down on Banks' Loan-Sale Practice WSJ
BEIJING—China's banking regulator has quietly cracked down on banks selling their loans to trust companies, taking aim at a little-understood category of transactions that had fueled concerns about transparency in the banking system.

The transactions at issue had enabled banks to move loans off their balance sheets by temporarily selling them to Chinese trusts, lightly regulated companies that then repackaged the loans into financial instruments for clients.

The banks promised to repurchase the loans any time between a few weeks and a few years later.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a notice banning banks that sell loans to trusts from removing the loans from their balance sheets, said an executive in the risk management department of a Chinese bank who has seen the document. The notice was issue Dec. 24, but wasn't made public.

Banks have been unwilling to discuss the trust deals publicly, but analysts who had studied the transactions say the banks were using them to report lower loan totals at a time when China's government was indicating concern about credit expansion and pushing lenders to increase their capital ratios as a precaution against bad loans.

While no official data on the loan-sale practice is publicly available, Shanghai Benefit Investment Consulting, a research company, estimates that 734 billion yuan ($107.53 billion) of bank loans were packaged into trust products in 2009.

About 80% of that was issued in the second half of the year, as Beijing's concern about loan growth mounted

The volume of new bank loans more than doubled in 2009, as Chinese lenders-almost all of which are majority owned by the state—assisted government efforts to stimulate the economy.

Not all the loans sold to trusts fall into the category barred by the CBRC notice, but the order appears to have nearly halted such transactions. According to Shanghai Benefit, only seven new trust products backed by banks loans have gone on sale this month, compared with 465 for the whole of December.

The regulatory change could add to difficulties for some Chinese banks that were already facing constraints on their lending this year by the declines in their capital-to-loan ratios as a result of last year's credit explosion.

Still, analysts say it's likely to be another banner year for bank lending in China, with many forecasting 2010's new loans will be between seven trillion and eight trillion yuan, down from around 9.5 trillion last year but far above the annual average for previous years.

> To put this number into perspective the loan figure for a booming 2008 was under 5 trillion Yuan......

> Um das in Verhältnis zu setzen muß man wissen das im Boomjahr 2008 unter unter 5 Billion Yuan an Krediten vergeben worden sind....

UPDATE:

> Looks like they have already "achieved" almost 8% percent of their 2010 lending target ( 12% of the 2008 loans....) within the first week.... Second UPDATE: Chinese Banks Already Lend Out 20% Percent Of Targeted Loan Growth For 2010 Withing The First Two Weeks Of January & Visualizing "Froth" In China....... Hey, but "Don´t Call It A Bubble"...... ;-)

> Sieht ganz so aus als wenn die chinesischen Banken bereits knapp 8% der für 2010 ( oder 12% der im Jahr 2008 ausgegebenen Kredite ) "vorgesehenen" Kreditvergaben in der ersten Januarwoche ausgekehrt hätten......"Don´t Call It A Bubble"...... ;-) Zweites UPDATE Chinese Banks Already Lend Out 20% Percent Of Targeted Loan Growth For 2010 Withing The First Two Weeks Of January & Visualizing "Froth" In China....... ....Bernanke würde jetzt sagen "Don´t Call It A Bubble"......

Between January 4 and 8, commercial banks issued loans worth 600 billion yuan, a new high in years. Caing.com

It seems that China's commercial banks have slowed the lending pace due to warnings from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and banking regulator. However, new statistics showed that the pace actually accelerated during the first week of 2010.

New lending by banks reached 600 billion yuan, with the five biggest banks accounting for 280 billion yuan, according data obtained by Caixin Media.

> Let´s hope that at least a small part from the staggering amount is related to the reintegretaion from the "funny" off balance sheet structures.....

> Bleibt nur zu hoffen das zumindest ein kleiner Teil der unglaublichen Summe darauf zurückzuführen ist das einiges wieder in die Bilanz eingegliedert worden ist.....

Update:

China Hits Brakes on Economic Stimulus WSJ

China, which for more than a year has been pushing its banks to pump out cash to offset the global downturn, abruptly reversed course Tuesday, in the clearest sign yet that Beijing has turned its attention to controlling the repercussions of that credit explosion.

Starting Monday, most Chinese commercial banks will be required to put 16% of their deposits on reserve, an increase of a half percentage point.

The new rate will effectively lock up 300 billion yuan, or around $44 billion, that might otherwise have been lent, according to Tom Orlik, China analyst at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates.

Next to the 40 trillion yuan or more in loans outstanding and a 24 trillion yuan stock market, that is a small amount.

> Sweet Babystep... Too little and definitely way too late.....

> Wie niedlich..... Bestenfalls ein Anfang und definitv erheblich zu spät.....