Monday, January 04, 2010

Anti Spin From Rosenberg

Time for a reality check ....Especially with markets at new highs, priced for perfection, investor sentiment ( Chart from December ) & complacency at "extreme" levels & quite a steep "Wall Of Worries" (H/T Zero Hedge) signalling at least not insignificant headwinds ..... UPDATE: Not a Positive Economic Picture M. Panzner .....

"Rosenberg Warning" ..... Make sure you don´t miss Know Your Market Bears – A Field Guide via The Reformed Broker...Hilarious :-)!

Denke die Zeit für einen Realitätscheck .... Gilt besonders da der Start ins Jahr 2010 neue Rekorde gebracht hat und die Bewertung nahe ( jenseits ) der Perfektion gepreist ist, die Stimmung der Investoren ( Chart aus dem Dezember ) & "Selbstzufriedenheit" schon leicht "euphorische" Tendenzen anzeigt und etliche andere Faktoren zukünftig zumindest erheblichenGegenwind versprechen......UPDATE: Not a Positive Economic Picture M. Panzner

Verweise weil es sich um Rosenberg handelt "warnenderweise" :-)! auf Know Your Market Bears – A Field Guide via Reformed Broker....Wunderbar :-) !

Breakfast With Dave 102609 Top

David Rosenberg

"So this remains the Houdini rally — no jobs; no pricing power; no broad participation; and no volume "


"Over the past decade, the stature of the market as an effective discounting mechanism has gradually eroded. The observation and analysis of potential risks – though essential to long-term investing and loss avoidance – is far less actionable than one might expect. Investors will evidently speculate as long they have dice in their hands and the casino is not visibly on fire."
Bob "The Bear" Janjuah FT Alphaville

Well I clearly underestimated the ability & willingness of the Public Sector, notably in the UK, US, parts of periph Europe and Japan, to take huge risks with their sovereign balance sheets, AND IMPORTANTLY, I over-estimated the ability & willingness of the Financial Sector/Market to see things for what they are (Another Debt Fuelled Bubble/Ponzi).
The THE ULTIMATE GUIDE TO 2010 INVESTMENT PREDICTIONS AND OUTLOOKS compilation from PragCap gives numerous market calls from the "Who Is Who" and is a must read! Brilliant!

Wer einen fast kompletten Überblick von allen wesentlichen Adressen der Finanzwelt in Sachen Ausblick haben möchte der sollte THE ULTIMATE GUIDE TO 2010 INVESTMENT PREDICTIONS AND OUTLOOKS von PragCap nicht verpassen. Fantastisch!

But with Bernanke, Geithner, goverments, regulators & central banks around the globe playing the moral hazard card almost on a daily basis ( The Fed Is Preparing QE 2.0, MBS-Only Edition) without being punished significantly from bond & currency markets the party can easily continue for a while..... One of many many reason why i´m a GOLD-BUG .... ;-)

Da Bernanke, Geithner, Aufsichtsbehörden, Regierungen und Zentralbanken rund um den Globus die "Moral Hazard" Karte praktisch tagtäglich ( siehe The Fed Is Preparing QE 2.0, MBS-Only Edition ) in den Ring werfen ohne ernsthaft vom Anleihe und Währungsmarkt "getadelt" zu werden ist nicht auszuschließen das die Party noch ne Zeit lang weitergeht...... Einer von etlichen Gründen warum ich als GOLD-BUG durchgehe .... ;-)

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Blogger jmf said...

Rosenberg Points Out That The Stock Market Is Now A Lagging Indicator; Discusses Byron Wien's Beliefs In The Tooth Fairy ZH

The same stock market that couldn’t see a recession coming in late 2007 even though it was two months away, doesn’t see how low-quality this “recovery” is since there is nothing organic about it. The market is relying continuously on government support, so much so that nearly 20% — by far a record — of U.S. personal income is now coming from Uncle Sam’s generosity in the form of transfers. This deserves a lower-than-normal price-earnings multiple, but it may take time for Mr. Market to figure this out, just as it took several quarters for it to see the effects of a housing recession and credit collapse two years ago. The stock market, in other words, has managed to become a classic lagging indicator

12:37 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Final 2010 Strategist Predictions Bespoke

10:19 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

December was fifth month in a row of outflows from stock funds MW

In fact, according to TrimTabs Investment Research, December was the fifth month in a row in which mutual fund investors pulled more money out of domestic equity mutual funds than they put in. The month's net outflow came to $7.2 billion, bringing the total since the beginning of March to $29 billion, according to TrimTabs.

9:29 PM  
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11:17 PM  

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