Constructing Capitulation: February 2007 / paper money

make sure you read the full piece with lots of graphs and insights from paper money. click on the headline and compare the facts with the kool aid that the lobbyist, wall street and the media is spinning.

lege euch unbedingt das komplette werk ans herz. bitte auf die überschrift klicken und vergleicht mal die fakten mit der immer noch verharmlosenden meinung das die wende bald kommen wird usw.....

größer / bigger http://tinyurl.com/283klu

New Residential Construction Report: February 2007 / paper money

make sure you click on the headline to the see sobering facts behind the bullish buzz that

unbedingt auf die überschrift klicken um die trübe wahrheit hinter der bullish erscheinenden meldung zu lesen

new homes rebounded by 9% in February after a 14% decline in January, but less volatile building permits declined by 2.5%,

U.S. January Housing Starts Plunge to Lowest Level Since 1997

here is what fed´s moskow has to say/spin ....here we go..........

hier was einer fed leute zu sagen hat.....

Moskow: Jan housing start drop may be due to volatility 1 :30 PM ET, Feb 16, 2007 - 12 hours ago (taken from marketwatch) - rest of his quotes in the comments


of course........../ selbstverständlich.........

U.S. Jan. housing starts fall to lowest rate since 1997
U.S. Jan. housing starts punge 14.3% to 1.408 mln
U.S. Jan. building permits fall 2.8% to 1.568 mln
U.S. housing starts down 37.8% year-on-year
U.S. Jan. single-family permits down 4.0% to 1.121 mn
U.S. Jan. single-family starts fall 11.2% to 1.108 mln
U.S. building permits down 28.6% year-on-year

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQQD478kkqhU&refer=home

Construction in the West fell 28.5 percent to an annual rate of 301,000 last month, the slowest since December 1996. The decline in the West from December was the biggest since January 1979.

Starts also dropped 15.2 percent in the Midwest to a 195,000 pace, the weakest since January 1991, and decreased 11.8 percent in the South to 716,000. Beginning construction in the Northeast rose 8.9 percent. (this graph doesn´t include the latest weak numbers...)

Home construction fell at an annual rate of 19.2 percent last quarter, the most since 1991, after contracting at an 18.7 percent pace in the previous three months, according to a government report Jan. 31. The decline subtracted 1.2 percentage points from fourth-quarter growth

it will be interesting to see how wall street spins this.

one thing for sure will be that this is good news for the builders (will be lower inventory down the road...), blame the weather....., cooling......, leveling off....,the bottom .....,the fed will lower rates....., blah blah ......... (or the trash from moskow...)

wird gleich wieder lustig zu sehen sein wie die gelehrten der wall street das in gute news ummünzen werden.....

every "normal" thinking person can see the job fallout and the coming economic slowdown and probably a recession....(see labels)

jeder normalsterbliche kann sich zurechreimen das dieses jobverluste und wahrscheinlich ne rezession bedeuten wird......(mehr unter den lablen)

more on this topic from

mike larson http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2007/02/housing-starts-disaster.html,

calculated risk http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/02/housing-starts-and-completions.html

plus a very funny lereah bashing from minyanville http://www.minyanville.com/articles/?a=12177 (highly recommended!)

housing starts down 25.5% yoy, permits down 31.3%!

look out below........

U.S. building permits down 31.3% year-over-year
U.S. housing starts down 25.5% year-over-year
U.S. Nov. building permits fall to 9-year low.
U.S. Nov. building permits short of 1.55 mln expected
U.S. Nov. housing starts exceed 1.54 mln expected.
U.S. Nov. building permits fall 3% to 1.506 mln pace.
U.S. Nov. housing starts up 6.7% to 1.588 mln pace

Building permits are down 31.3% in the past year and are down 14.1% in the first 11 months of 2006 compared with the same period in 2005.

Regionally, starts rose 8.6% in the Northeast and rose 18.5% in the South. Starts fell 6.3% in the Midwest to the lowest level in 15 years. Starts fell 8.1% in the West to the lowest level in five years.

much more details and charts as always from "calculated risk!"