Friday, November 24, 2006

us$ index / do fundamentals matter (in the end..) ?

the weakness in the $chart is really an importend issue. further weakness will reverse the carry trade http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/11/boj-chief-has-yen-carry-concern-mother.html#links and force the fed to hold on longer to higher rates. one wild card are the commodities. when they will rise in the face of a weakining $ the troubles gets even uglier. the other importend point will be the demand from foreigners for all the us assets (mainly us debt / treasuries and corporate).

the market is also testing the importend bottom in the 10 years around 4,54-4,55 http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/11/bottom-in-10-year-treasuries.html#links

die schwäche im $chart ist wirklich nicht zu unterschätzen. weitere schwäche im $ dürfte die fed dazu verleiten länger an höheren zinsen festzuhalten als evtl. angemessen. fraglich auch wie sich die rohstoffe verhalten. in der vergangenheit sind diese bei einem schwachen $ gestiegen. zusätzlich dürfte es entscheidend sein inwieweit die ausländer immer noch gewillt sind us anleihen (égal ob vom staat oder unternehmen) zu erwerben. zudem könnte sich der carry trade umkehren. http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/11/boj-chief-has-yen-carry-concern-mother.html#links

der markt testet heute zudem die extrem wichtige markierung der 10 jahresbonds bei 4,54/4,55 http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/11/bottom-in-10-year-treasuries.html#links

dank geht an clive maund. more long term charts http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=1212

größer/bigger http://www.clivemaund.com/charts/usd1year261106.gif

some of the problems are:

















etc.........


Labels: ,

6 Comments:

Anonymous john said...

10 yr T-bone at its support 4.54, will break today? Will be very, very nasty

8:36 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

hi john,

yup! i´m watching this one also were closely!

on the other side. whne they can´t take this level out the bottom will be very very strong.

8:39 AM  
Anonymous death knell said...

Hello from the USA. I liked the pics. This decline has been a long time coming. Too long, way too long. I think much of the world still thinks of the US the way many here do, delusionally wealthy. The government so-called capitalists have ruined us. Oh well, bring on the depression, we've been needing one for about ten years now.

8:47 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

that death knell,

i agree. the media in germany and europe still are in denial.

the secoundhardest hit after the us could be germany. everything here is dependend on our exports. with the $ coming down a lot of componies will have big big troubles.

9:20 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There has been many news articles on the USD weakness on the Housing Panic and Paper Money blogs

4:16 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

hello,

i agree. both superb blogs.

look at my blogroll :-)

3:49 AM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home