Friday, November 24, 2006

us$ index / do fundamentals matter (in the end..) ?

the weakness in the $chart is really an importend issue. further weakness will reverse the carry trade and force the fed to hold on longer to higher rates. one wild card are the commodities. when they will rise in the face of a weakining $ the troubles gets even uglier. the other importend point will be the demand from foreigners for all the us assets (mainly us debt / treasuries and corporate).

the market is also testing the importend bottom in the 10 years around 4,54-4,55

die schwäche im $chart ist wirklich nicht zu unterschätzen. weitere schwäche im $ dürfte die fed dazu verleiten länger an höheren zinsen festzuhalten als evtl. angemessen. fraglich auch wie sich die rohstoffe verhalten. in der vergangenheit sind diese bei einem schwachen $ gestiegen. zusätzlich dürfte es entscheidend sein inwieweit die ausländer immer noch gewillt sind us anleihen (égal ob vom staat oder unternehmen) zu erwerben. zudem könnte sich der carry trade umkehren.

der markt testet heute zudem die extrem wichtige markierung der 10 jahresbonds bei 4,54/4,55

dank geht an clive maund. more long term charts


some of the problems are:


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Anonymous john said...

10 yr T-bone at its support 4.54, will break today? Will be very, very nasty

8:36 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

hi john,

yup! i´m watching this one also were closely!

on the other side. whne they can´t take this level out the bottom will be very very strong.

8:39 AM  
Anonymous death knell said...

Hello from the USA. I liked the pics. This decline has been a long time coming. Too long, way too long. I think much of the world still thinks of the US the way many here do, delusionally wealthy. The government so-called capitalists have ruined us. Oh well, bring on the depression, we've been needing one for about ten years now.

8:47 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

that death knell,

i agree. the media in germany and europe still are in denial.

the secoundhardest hit after the us could be germany. everything here is dependend on our exports. with the $ coming down a lot of componies will have big big troubles.

9:20 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There has been many news articles on the USD weakness on the Housing Panic and Paper Money blogs

4:16 PM  
Blogger jmf said...


i agree. both superb blogs.

look at my blogroll :-)

3:49 AM  

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