Tuesday, November 07, 2006

toll faces the reality! / what a warning!!!!

can´t wait for further upgrades........../ kann kaum die upgrades erwarten......

Toll Brothers sees 1,500 to 1,800 deliveries in Q1
Toll Brothers: Can't see a recovery in sight
Toll Brothers to take 18c to 36c hit on land writedowns
Toll Brothers sees FY deliveries 6,300 to 7,300 homes
Toll Brothers previously saw deliveries 7,000 to 8,000
Toll Brothers: Higher-than-normal 585 cancellations
Toll Brothers backlog $4.49 bln vs $6.01 bln (-25%!)
Toll Brothers Q4 signed contracts $710 mln vs $1.59 bln (-55%)
Toll Brothers Q4 home building revenue $1.81 bln vs $2.01 bl

The Company's fourth-quarter cancellations measured approximately 7% of beginning fourth-quarter backlog, compared to 4% in its third quarter FY 2006. Viewed as a percentage of contracts signed in the fourth quarter of FY 2006, cancellations totaled 37%, compared to 18% in FY 2006's third quarter. Nearly 25% of all fourth-quarter cancellations occurred in two markets -- Orlando (14%) and Northern California (11%)

As a result, the Company reduced its land position by approximately 6,500 lots and ended FY 2006's fourth quarter with approximately 74,000 lots owned or controlled, a decline of 19% from its high of approximately 91,200 lots at FY 2006's second-quarter-end. The Company expects to take write-downs on optioned and owned land in FY 2006's fourth quarter of between $50 million and $100 million

During the fourth quarter of FY 2006, the Company bought back approximately 12 thousand shares of its stock at an average price of approximately $27.29. For FY 2006, the Company bought back approximately 3.63 million shares of its stock at an average price of approximately $30.24. This compares to purchases of approximately 1.98 million and 2.80 million shares in fourth quarter and FY 2005, respectively (thats right. buy back the stock when its high and stop when the stock is low. but i think they have realized that they will need every $ to secure their creditrating! and save the balance sheet/das macht sinn. teuer aktien zurückkaufen und bei teiferen kursen das ganze einstellen. denke das die jetzt realisiert haben das es ans eingemacht geht und jeder $ zählt)

and maybe my conclusion that they face reality was premature. read this statement! evtl. war ich etwas voreilig mit meinem feststellung. lest euch dieses zitat durch

``We continue to look for signs that a recovery is imminent but can't yet say that one is in sight. We see some signs of pent-up demand ........., we believe that, once the current inventory overhang is absorbed and consumer sentiment turns positive, the market should improve more rapidly than is generally anticipated.

``Our nation's demographics haven't changed, and home ownership remains the American dream. With interest rates very attractive, the economy healthy and home builders motivated to move their product, it should be a great time to buy a new home. (and sell your insidershares......of course.....)

unfortunalty no cash or debt numbers in the release!

update after the conference call

beazer is joining the parade http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061107/20061107005552.html?.v=1

Operating income margin: 8.0%, compared to 14.1% in the prior year

New orders: 2,064 homes, compared to 4,937 in the prior year. (-58%)!

Year-end net debt-to-capitalization ratio as of 9/30/06: 49.5%

For fiscal year 2006, the company repurchased 3,648,300 shares for $205.4 million (no problem with this strong balance sheet.......)

Cash $172,443 $297,098

Total debt 1,838,660 1,321,936

Inventory 3,520,332 2,901,165


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