Monday, September 04, 2006

moskau

nicht wirklich überraschend ist auch moskau im bubblemode. auch hier geilt wohl ähnlich wie in kanadahttp://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/canada-kanada.html das ein teil sicher getragen wird durch das explosive wirtschaftswachstum. eine weitere besonderheit scheint hier auch zu sein das es mangels verläßlicher anlagealternativen und problemen mit der rubelkonvertierung/transfer ins ausland einen zusätzlichen anreitz gibt in immobilien zu investieren. ändert aber nichts daran das auch in moskau normalsterbliche keine wohnungen mehr leisten können. alles klassische bubblemerkmale


Housing prices have gone wild, says Moscow vice-mayor
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20060830/53306629.html

highlights:

Moscow apartment prices keep breaking records. Housing in Russia has been growing in value ahead of inflation ever since a housing market appeared in the country, but the prices have made a particularly impressive leap only recently.

Moscow in this respect is ahead of all its closest rivals, living up to its reputation as the world's costliest city.

In 2005, the average price of a Moscow apartment rose by about 40%, and it has risen by another 40% since the beginning of this year to reach about $3,500 per square meter of floorspace. In a city where average monthly wages have just recently reached 24,000 rubles (roughly $900, or twice as high as in the rest of Russia) this is prohibitively expensive. Even assuming that prices freeze, a rank-and-file Muscovite can earn in a year only enough to buy four square meters of living space, with the impossible condition that he give up all other expenses.

She said the Moscow market "is poised for housing costs of six or six and a half thousand dollars per square meter".

She appears to be right. The fact is that well-to-do people in Moscow and Russia have nowhere else to invest their extra money. The banking system suffers from constant jitters, the shock from the 1998 national default, when deposits in foreign currency were frozen, has not fully worn off yet, and the Russian securities market is still in its infancy. In these conditions, the ever-rising prices of Moscow accommodations are a fantastic investment instrument comparable in yields only to oil futures.

"Housing prices have gone wild. No other investment comes close to them," he told a news conference early in August. "The whole of the country has rushed to Moscow to buy apartments, creating a boom."

The Moscow housing market is heating up to the boiling point. Demand is twice as high as supply, with new apartments selling like hot cakes the moment the foundations are laid. Non-Muscovites are the main buyers, especially on the primary market. They are believed to account for two-thirds of all purchases. Thirty per cent of the deals are done as investments - apartments may be sold, resold or change hands several times, but never lived in. (erinnert erschreckend an die flippingmentalität in florida)

most of these former and current workers, clerks, intellectuals and military men - all those who obtained their accommodation free from the state during the Soviet times and then privatized it - know perfectly well that their housewarming parties are a thing of the past, that they will never be able to afford new housing, and that different people are now feeling the pulse of city life and running things.

Meanwhile, city authorities are optimistic. Runaway demand is creating conditions in which, to quote Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov, we have only "to build, build and build." Before the year's end Moscow plans to have completed 4.7 million square meters of floorspace - nearly 80,000 new apartments if we take a 60 sq m unit as standard

gegen diese art von zahlen sehen selbst die anderen staaten harmlos aus.

jan-martin

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Excellent article, but i't sadly outdated. Since this september, prices have essentially stopped rising and the market ground to a halt. Unfortunately, since most of the apts have been bought without leverage, nothing is pushing specuvestors to sell and prices are not looking ready to decline. Oh well, with 10%+ inflation rate, frozen prices are not so bad too.

---droid

12:06 AM  

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