Friday, September 15, 2006

down under + gb / bubble world tour

australien ist in sachen bubble den anderen ländern 12-18 monate voraus. es sah lange so aus las wenn der rohstoffboom tatsächlich dem immomarkt zu hilfe kommen würde undein soft landing ermöglichen würde. allerdings hat es meiner kenntnis nach ner blase noch nie ein soft landing gegeben. da andere länder (abseits der bauwirtschaft) wie die usa alles andere als eine boomende wirtschaft haben dürfte der fall dort noch schmerzlicher werden.

dank geht an

The real lesson from Australia’s property slump


The economic outlook for the UK isn’t getting any better.

But rather than focus on our own little bubble, we’d like to take another trip Down Under this morning, to find out what the state of the Aussie housing market can tell us about the future of our own…

Many people thought the Australian housing market had achieved the holy grail of a ‘soft landing’. But that‘s looking more and more like wishful thinking. Stories are emerging of negative equity and of houses in Sydney being sold at well below prices fetched in 2004.

One particular tale that has been enthralling Sydney-siders is the story of a house in the city’s western suburbs. It was bought for A$450,000 (about £180,000) in 2004. But the unfortunate owners ran into trouble making their mortgage payments, and the home recently sold again - this time for just A$260,000 (£104,000), a 42% drop over two years

That’s pretty hefty. And so compelling was the tale that the Sydney Morning Herald recently revisited the street to interview neighbours about their housing plans.

Here’s a quote from local homeowner Judith Marshall: “Our house was valued two years ago at about A$330,000 [£132,000] and since the market has come back we’re thinking it would be about A$300,000 [£120,000], maybe less. Bricks and mortar is supposed to be the most solid investment of your life, but for many people these days, I think you’re better off renting.”

Those are words to strike terror into the heart of any estate agent. No more talk of how “you can’t go wrong with property.” No more “renting is just paying someone else’s mortgage,” or “renting is dead money.” Now it’s the homeowners who look like they’ve wasted money while the canny renters have avoided the millstone of negative equity.

The key lesson is that sentiment changes. And once it changes, it takes a long time to change back.

In our own property market, we’re at the point where the greatest of the greater fools are still climbing on the ladder. Tales of 40-year interest-only mortgages and complete strangers (apparently) clubbing together to buy and share over-priced housing proliferate.,

But when these stories start to spread around, it’s a sure sign that a market’s in its final spasms before the turnaround. It won’t be long before the typical person starts to think - “you’d have to be daft or have money to burn to buy property in the UK today.”

In fact, even the people who really do have money to burn think UK property is poor value. Chelsea’s Michael Ballack, who earns a mere £130,000 a week, has been widely reported as saying: “London is extremely expensive. It is better to rent.” (was living the past 3 years in the most expansive germany city "munich", than these word makes really sense)

Now we wouldn’t normally advise taking economic advice from a footballer – but in his case, we’ll make an exception.

alle anderen storys zu australien und uk hier / other story to uk and australia here:

denke das wir ähnliche geschichten die nächsten jahre rund um den globus hören werden.



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