Monday, July 24, 2006

china steuert gegen

hallo,

wahrscheinlich zu spät (aber immerhin) steuern die chinesen in sachen bubble gegen.
passend hierzu bitte ich nochmal das posting über shanghai zu lesen. paßt wie die faust aufs auge.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BD1275B4D%2DFFE4%2D4D5F%2DA313%2D3DF4E35E273D%7D&keyword=

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Regulations announced by Beijing on Monday to curb foreign investment in the real-estate market should be effective in cooling speculation in the luxury segment, according to economists.

Jun Ma, Deutsche Bank's Greater China chief economist, estimates the measures, which were signaled by China weeks in advance, should cut foreign-fund flows into the luxury segment of major cities such as Shanghai and other metropolitan areas by 50%.

"It will virtually eliminate all of the speculative foreign demand," Ma said, adding he expects the luxury segment to decline 5% to 20% in the wake of the new regulations.

No date for the implementation of the new regulations was announced.

The measures, which were jointly formulated by six state agencies, include changes to financing, capital adequacy ratios and other areas that can affect residential property purchases by both foreign institutions and individuals.

Key among the new rules is a requirement stipulating individuals must live or work in the country for a year before purchasing property.

Overseas investors who do not plan to occupy the properties they buy must first set up a foreign-funded enterprise.

For property investments over $10 million, the capital adequacy ratio will rise to 50% from 33% previously. Smaller foreign-funded projects will face restrictions on taking loans if the capital they contribute to the venture is less than 35% of the total figure.

The proposals also include changes regarding building projects, share structures, and foreign exchange.

Ma said it was doubtful well-heeled foreign investors would bother going through all the legal and bureaucratic hurdles brought on the by the new rules. He said the process was shaping up as too onerous in terms of time and the outcome too uncertain given that the applications made under the foreign-funded enterprise scheme could be rejected by mainland authorities.

He added foreign investors faced an additional negative of 33% capital gains on property sales.

"If you were to do a survey of five current investors, my estimate is that 80% of people would say they are unlikely to continue after the new measures," he said.

China has stepped up measures this year to rein in the real estate market in response to concerns about excessive foreign investment and rapid price-appreciation in the real estate sector.

Government data shows sales by foreigners and foreign intuitions, measured in foreign exchange sales, more than tippled in the first three months of this year from the same period a year earlier.

Similarly reports, cited by Xinhua, show the number of newly established foreign-invested real estate enterprises increased by 25.4% in the first half of this year, compared with the same period last year.

The proposals have been jointly issued by the Ministry of Construction, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration of Industry and Commerce and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

"In Shanghai 30% of the foreign demand coming from high-end properties is coming from foreign demand. So, that part of the market is gong to be hit very significantly."

Ma doubts there will be any problem loan issues with medium and large developers given their strong balance sheets. However, as the project development cycle begins to slow, he expects the share prices of luxury developers to reflect declining earnings.

"I am more worried about the ability of developers to sustain their pricing for high end units," he said.

Ma added additional measures from Beijing would depend upon whether the speculative fever quiets down.

"I would never say it's the end of tightening, the government is reactive to numbers, if the property markets do not cool off I think they will come up with more," Ma said. Chris Oliver is MarketWatch's Asia bureau chief, based in Hong Kong.

kann nur noch mal auf den krassen gegensatz zu den usa hinweisen. dort wurde obwohl für alle erkennbar die blase ohne jegliche eingriffe unter zunahme neuer kreditformen, niedriger ankaufshürden für fannie und freddie, ohne erhöhte reserveanforderungen der fed (natürlich nicht) usw. das ganze sogar noch weiter angeheizt. muß wohl so laufen wenn der überwiegende teil der wirtschaft auf assetpriceinflation angewiesen ist..........

gruß

jan-martin



2 Comments:

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