Number Of The Day "Japan´s Export Plunge Record 27 Percent"

WOW! The strong Yen didn´t help......... I expect that the entire currency complex has the potential to become the next "battleground" ( hopefully not combined with "trade wars" see Has Beggar Thy Neighbor Started? via Naked Capitalism & The Major Risks for 2009: Tariffs, Wars, Currency, etc. from Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg via Infectious Greed)........ The race to the bottom is already underway..... Let´s hope that we won´t see a crash of a major currency ( british Pound )...... At least there will be always a bull market ( one weak vs another less weak currency)..... Got Gold......?

Donnerwetter! Bleibt zu hoffen das wir als vergleichbare Exportnation etwas besser abschneiden...... Denke den Japanern wird gerade jetzt der erstarkte Yen nicht sonderlich gefallen..... Ich befürchte das uns das Thema Wechselkurse in den kommenden Jahren desöfteren heimsuchen wird ( hoffnetlich nicht auch in Form von "Handelskriegen" siehe auch Has Beggar Thy Neighbor Started? via Naked Capitalism & The Major Risks for 2009: Tariffs, Wars, Currency, etc. von Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg via Infectious Greed)...... Der Versuch die Währung möglichst schwach zu halten ist weltweit bereits im vollen Gange. Ich würde mir nur wünschen das wir das ohne Kollaps eine der größeren Währungen überstehen. Denke da besonders an das britische Pfund...... Immerhin ermöglichen diese Märkte immer einen garantierten Bullenmarkt ( schwache vs einer wenigen schwachen Währung ) ...... Got GOLD?

Thanks to Bespoke

Japan Exports Plunge Record 27% as Recession Deepens Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s exports plunged the most on record in November as global demand for cars and electronics collapsed, signaling more factory shutdowns and job cuts are likely as the recession deepens.

Exports fell 26.7 percent from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. That was more than the 22.3 percent decline estimated by economists and the sharpest since comparable data were made available in 1980.

Shipments to the U.S. slid an unprecedented 34 percent and sales to China slumped the most in 13 years

The government today lowered its assessment of the world’s second-largest economy, saying it’s “worsening” for the first time since 2002. Gross domestic product shrank in the past two quarters, sending Japan into its first recession since 2001.

Toyota, Honda Motor Co. and Sony Corp. are among the companies that are shedding thousands of workers and closing production lines as profits dwindle. Car exports slid 32 percent last month, the most ever, and semiconductors slumped 29 percent, the ministry said.

UPDATE : Toyota Forecasts First Operating Loss in 71 Years on Yen, Sales

Compounding the drop in demand is the stronger yen, which erodes overseas profits. Every 1 yen gain against the dollar and euro trims Toyota’s annual operating profit by 40 billion yen and 6 billion yen, according to the company. The carmaker in November based its second-half earnings outlook on 100 yen to the dollar and 130 yen to the euro.

Today’s report showed the global recession is spreading to the emerging markets that propped up exports as demand from the U.S. and Europe evaporated. Exports to Asia fell 27 percent, the most in 22 years. Shipments to China, Japan’s largest trading partner, tumbled 25 percent, the steepest decline since 1995.

Exports to Europe slid 31 percent, the second-most ever.

Poof....There Goes The Carry Trade....

This should come as no surprise. On top of all the players that leveraged them to their eyeballs the clearest sign that something was about to happen came direct from Japan . The following stats are taken from Housewives Outmaneuver UBS, Deutsche Bank Trading Yen .

Das dürfte aber nun wirklich niemanden überraschen. Zu einen sind fast alle Marktteilnehmer bis über beide Ohren ins Risiko gegangen auf der anderen Seit kam das wohl klarste Signal direkt aus Japan. ( siehe Housewives Outmaneuver UBS, Deutsche Bank Trading Yen )

Japanese businessmen, housewives and pensioners betting against the yen in their spare time are wrecking the forecasts of the world's biggest currency traders

They tripled their trading in the year ended March to a record $11 billion a day

In Japan, individuals have opened 600,000 so-called margin trading accounts at brokerages that lend money for currency bets, 80 percent more than a year ago

Feels a little like the cab driver giving stock tips

Bei uns würde man das wohl "Milchmädchenhausse" nennen....

Thanks to Henry k. To. Chart taken from Market Not Close to Capitulation Just Yet

Chart does not include the brutal move today in Asia

As mentioned o n the above chart, the most recent correction in the four popular Yen cross rates is still not severe enough as what we witnessed during the late February to mid March correction. More importantly, these cross rates have only corrected to levels last seen during early June - definitely nowhere close to "capitulation" levels and a far cry to what we witnessed in Fall 1998, when the Yen - at one point - rose over 10% in a space of 24 hours!

bigger/größer

> It will be interesting to see how all the Japanese investors will react.... I can imagine that some of them are drinkng more Sake than usual...... :-)

> Ich bin gespannt wie all die japanischen Investoren reagieren werden... Ich kann mir gut vorstellen das einige in letzter Zeit mehr Sake als gewöhnlich getrunken haben... :-)

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The New Zealand dollar slumped, heading for its biggest weekly loss since the 1987 stock market crash, as investors slashed holdings of high-yield assets funded by loans in yen.

Australia's dollar, another favorite for investors who bought the nation's securities with money borrowed cheaply in Japan, tumbled as a drop in Asian stocks encouraged investors to unwind their carry trades. Both currencies fell to their lowest in more than four months against the dollar and yen on concerns losses related to subprime mortgages are deepening.

``The subprime issue is the center of the credit crisis universe and everything else is orbiting around it,'' said Alex Sinton, senior currency dealer at ANZ National Bank Ltd. in Auckland. ``The kiwi is one of fringe planets in that universe and it's going through a meteor belt at the moment.''

New Zealand's dollar slid 3 percent to 69.39 U.S. cents at 3:08 p.m. in Wellington. It fell as low as 69.37 cents, the weakest since March 16. It has tumbled 8.4 percent in the past 5 days and 14 percent since touching 81.10 cents on July 24, the strongest since being allowed to trade freely in 1985.

The currency also tumbled 3.2 percent against Japan's currency to 80.79 yen after having the biggest loss since December 2005 yesterday.

The Australian dollar declined 1.2 percent to 81.40 U.S. cents from late in Asia yesterday. It touched 81.38 cents, the least since April 5 and lost 4.9 percent over the past five days, the most since May 2004. The currency fell 1.5 percent against the yen to 94.72.

`Jumped On'
``The kiwi and Aussie will underperform,'' said Jonathan Cavanagh, a currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney, referring to the currencies by their nicknames. ``Any bad news is jumped on in a big way.''

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia Pacific Index of shares fell 3.4 percent to the lowest since March.

Japan's 0.5 percent overnight lending rate is the lowest of any major economy. New Zealand's central bank raised borrowing costs four times this year to 8.25 percent and the Reserve Bank of Australia increased rates last week to 6.5 percent, making their currencies more appealing for carry trades.

New Zealand Finance Minister Michael Cullen said the nation's currency, which has slumped 11 percent the past three weeks, is still unjustifiably high.

> And when you look at the cuurent account balance...... But who cared about fundamentals just a few weeks ago....

> Wenn man sich die Daten zum Defizit ansieht ist diese Aussage mehr als berechtigt.... Aber wen haben bis vor einigen Wochen Fundamentaldaten interesssiert.......

Housewives Outmaneuver UBS, Deutsche Bank Trading Yen

other examples have shown that when the broader public is entering a market that the end is near..... but with the Bank Of Japan in power......

andere beispiele haben gezeigt das wenn die breite masse etwas für sich entdeckt das dort eher das ende naht.......aber mit unterstützung der Bank Of Japan......

Japanese businessmen, housewives and pensioners betting against the yen in their spare time are wrecking the forecasts of the world's biggest currency traders.

The yen has slumped 4.6 percent to a 4 1/2-year low against the dollar this quarter, making it the worst performer among 72 major currencies and confounding predictions by strategists at Deutsche Bank AG and UBS AG for gains of about 1 percent.

The banks didn't reckon on the risk appetite of Japanese individuals, who are borrowing money like never before to buy currencies with higher yields. They tripled their trading in the year ended March to a record $11 billion a day, according to Tokyo-based Yano Research Institute Ltd., publisher of an annual report on the business. Globally, currency trading by retail investors rose 54 percent in 2006, according to research firm Greenwich Associates in Greenwich, Connecticut.

``Japan's interest rates are too low,'' said Hiroshi Ono, a 40-year-old sales clerk at a telephone company in Tokyo. Ono said he has made about $17,000 since March by borrowing $200,000 of yen and buying U.S. dollars to take advantage of the 4.75 percentage-point difference between Japanese and U.S. interest rates.
Japanese investors are borrowing yen at the central bank's 0.5 percent overnight lending rate and buying higher-yielding currencies in New Zealand, the U.K., Australia and even Brazil to increase returns on 1,536 trillion yen ($12.5 trillion) in savings. The strategy is called the carry trade.

Global trading by investors other than banks, fund managers and companies surged 54 percent last year, said Peter D'Amario, a consultant at Greenwich Associates. The category, which includes retail investors, accounted for 16 percent of trades handled by 1,700 firms surveyed, up from 10 percent a year earlier. It grew 80 percent in Europe, 55 percent in Asia Pacific and 30 percent in the Americas.

In Japan, individuals have opened 600,000 so-called margin trading accounts at brokerages that lend money for currency bets, 80 percent more than a year ago, according to Yano Research

Deposits in margin trading brokerages have risen 60 percent to $4.9 billion in the past year, Yano Research found. While that's about 2 percent of the $272 billion that Japanese individuals have put into mutual funds that invest overseas, borrowing typically makes their positions 10 to 30 times larger