Euroland’s Real Estate and its Importance for the Euroland Economy / Pimco

Matthieu Louanges from Pimco is doing a good job of describing the Eurozone housing market and that there are regions California & Florida would be proud of....... The biggest "froth" is for sure in the UK housing market.

Matthieu Louanges von Pimco gelingt hier wie ich finde eine gute Zusammenfassung des Immobilienmarktes in der Eurozone. Und in der Tat befinden sich einige Länder und Regionen auf Augenhöhe mit Kalifornien & Co....... Für mich der mit Abstand verrückteste Markt ist jedoch nach wie vor der UK Immobilienmarkt.

The bubbles that exist now in housing are in more than two dozen countries.” Alan Greenspan, 2 October 2007

> That´s from the man who once said it is impossible to identify bubbles and especially the US housing bubble and saw a deflation threat with credit growth easy in the double digits....... And that is the same guy that for example, just a year ago, cautiously opined that the “worst [of the housing downturn] may well be over.” Please shut up! Here is what the Case/Shiller futures are predicting for 2011 and the latest news isn´t helping either Foreclosure Filings Soar in 3rd Quarter .......

> Und das vom Mann der noch vor einigen Jahren behauptet hat das es unmöglich ist zu erkennen ob es sich um Blasen handelt. Insbesondere hat er das ganze in den USA nicht kommen sehen. Zudem hat er den Boden für dioe Immobilienkrise für den Herbst 2006 vorhergesagt. Hier ein Blick auf die Housing Futures für das Jahr 2011.Die letzten Meldungen von der Zwangsvollstreckungsfront dürften auch nicht gerade hilfreich sein .... Dafür hat er trotz einem Kreditwachstum was sich bereits im zweistelligen Bereich bewegt hat eine akute Deflationsgefahr erkannt. Das Ende der Geschichte ist bekannt. Schimanski würde wohl sagen "Halt´s Maul!".... :-)

Euroland’s Real Estate and its Importance for the Euroland Economy and ECB Policy

The crisis in the U.S. housing market will – in the view of PIMCO – dominate Fed policy over the next years, and signs for this are already evident. The real estate slowdown has impacted U.S. GDP reports via the negative contribution from the construction sector and we expect that consumption will not escape some significant correction going forward. Will Euroland’s housing market and economy face a similar fate?

Euroland Chasing U.S. Property Prices
More recently, worries about housing markets in other parts of the world have surfaced and with it the fear that the housing slowdown might become a more global phenomenon. The Financial Times of 29 September reported on its front page that “Holiday homes face price fall threat,” stressing the ongoing weakness in the Spanish housing market. As I am French, I am also well placed to report that the doubling of the property prices in France over the last eight years or so has undoubtedly supported consumers’ confidence and their ultimate consumption. I myself enjoyed the wealth effect to some extent (though I don’t own much!) and certainly feel a bit less comfortable now that prices seem to have plateaued and that some house price deflation might seem as unavoidable in my nice city of Les Sables d’Olonne on the French Atlantic coast as in some parts of the United States.

In fact, the real house price appreciation trend in Euroland over the last years has kept up with the U.S. (Chart 1).

How important is and has the real estate market been for the Euroland economy in the last years? Are there signs of weakness yet in the housing market? And, finally, what impact can we expect on consumption and the overall economy, credit growth and European Central Bank (ECB) policy? These are the questions we will address in this piece.

Residential Investment’s Limited Impact
There are different ways through which the real estate market can impact the economy. The obvious one is by looking at the contribution of the construction sector to GDP growth measured by the share of residential investment in GDP as shown in Chart 2. Spain has clearly been benefiting from the boom in the construction sector. The contribution to GDP growth from that part of the economy has been about 1% per year since 1999

In fact, the housing boom in Spain presents some similarities with the post-unification era in Germany, as well as with the most recent developments in the U.S. The share of the construction sector in the Spanish GDP is now higher than it was in Germany at the end of the post-unification real estate boom and much higher than it was at the peak of the U.S. housing cycle in 2005. The impact is less pronounced in other countries.

Looking at France, the contribution of the construction sector to GDP growth has been about 0.2% in the last years while, in Germany, it has even been negative until 2004. Since then, residential investment has stopped being a drag to German GDP growth, which in itself can be seen as a positive.

Transactions and Wealth Effect Drive Consumption
Another way of looking at the importance of the real estate market, particularly housing, is through the consumption effect, which consists of two factors: the number of transactions and the wealth effect. When people buy apartments or houses, they tend to buy more furniture, TVs, etc: This is the transactions effect. When people see the prices of their homes go up, they feel wealthier, have better credit scores and tend to consume more: This is the wealth effect.

From the late 1990s until 2004, both the number of transactions and prices – as shown in Chart 3 – accelerated, especially in France and Spain.

The wealth effect is particularly evident in Chart 4. When we look at 2003 consumption growth in a large group of countries worldwide and regress the growth rate with the level of house price appreciation, we see a strong correlation. Germany and Japan, for example, had no price appreciation and no real consumption growth. On the other hand, Spain and France had strong price appreciation and stronger consumption.

So far, we have seen in this installment of the European Perspectives that since the beginning of this century the share of residential investment has increased in Euroland, particularly in Spain, and that price appreciation in Euroland supported consumption, especially in Spain and France. What we haven’t considered yet is that the boom in housing resulted also in an acceleration of credit growth for home purchases (Chart 5).
We know the ingredients from the finance side that fueled credit growth and thus the housing markets in Europe: low interest rates in the European Monetary Union (EMU) (thanks to the convergence of the national bond curves down to the German yields), innovation in the mortgage markets (with the creation, for example, of new 50-year mortgages) and the exporting of the UK housing bubble into other European regions (through the surge in demand for holiday homes).
We would add that the real estate market tends to act on momentum with increasing prices boosting the demand for real estate as those who are planning a purchase tend to accelerate their decision and as increasing prices make a real estate investment look more attractive for the cohort of pro-cyclical minded investors. On the flip-side, housing slowdowns tend to take a long time to reverse, and this is why the current signs of weakness are particularly alarming.

First Signs of Weakness in Euroland Housing
Currently, there are at least three signs of a weakening in the Euroland housing market: Price appreciation is slowing while mortgage growth and housing permits are indicating a sharp correction in construction activity in the coming months.

Price growth has been slowing for about a year. In France and Spain, the slowdown in price appreciation is remarkable (Chart 3). In fact, the last numbers released by FNAIM (the French federation of real estate agents) indicate some deflation in the French housing market in the last months, with a decline in the prices of apartments of 1.7% over the quarter to September 2007. After multiple rate hikes by the ECB, higher mortgage rates are starting to impact borrowers. In addition, prices have reached levels that made it increasingly difficult for people earning non-investment bank salaries to purchase anything in cities like Paris or Barcelona (the average price per square meter in the centre of Paris is now exceeding 7,000 euros).

Moreover, mortgage growth, as measured by the loans made to households for property purchases, has slowed remarkably since the middle of 2006 (as shown in Chart 5) under the influence of higher mortgage rates, lower affordability and probably a less favorable outlook for housing. What is similarly remarkable – and supports our previous intuition that housing and consumption are well linked – is that consumer credit growth declined simultaneously (Chart 5). The growth rate of credit to households has been slowing overall, which might indicate some weakness to come in Euroland consumption.

This is, of course, an important consideration for the ECB. This development should make the central bank less worried about the pace of credit growth than before, even though broad-based monetary growth remains quite strong due to other factors like the attractiveness of monetary assets in the context of a flat yield curve.

> Too bad that the ECB didn´t care on the escalating way up........

> Nur dumm das die EZB auf dem Weg als die Sache jahrelang eskaliert ist tatenlos zugesehen hat.....

Housing permits in Euroland are now slumping in line with the bearish developments described above. This is particularly the case in Spain, where the number of housing permits is falling by an annualized rate of about 40% (Chart 6). But permits are also falling at the entire euro area level, as the composite shows.

In addition, anecdotal evidence suggests a decline in the number of transactions in countries like Spain and France, but unfortunately, there appears to be no hard data depicting these series (if anybody knows of such a data series, please let me know!).

When summing it up, the story sounds very much like in the U.S. at first sight: Prices are not rising anymore or are even falling, mortgage growth is declining and housing permits indicate a stronger slowdown to come in the contribution of residential investments to GDP growth. However, a Euroland-wide price depreciation does not appear to be a reasonable scenario given the differences between the countries in the euro zone.

Slowing GDP and Credit Growth
The development outlined above suggest that euro area GDP will most likely suffer from negative impacts through construction sector growth as well as deteriorating consumption outlooks in the countries that had enjoyed housing booms. Spain appears particularly at risk, with a GDP growth rate that could fall from a 3.5% pace to 2.5% if the construction sector would stabilize and everything else remained equal (which would not be the case given the negative externalities in terms of consumption as previously noted). France is also at risk but the consumption effect will dominate, based on a decline in the number of transactions, as well as stabilizing, if not falling, prices. From an average of 2.4% household consumption growth per annum, consumption in France has already dropped to a level of 1.7%. However, the countries most affected by the housing and construction slowdown only contribute about 35% to euro area GDP, thus mitigating the impact on the euro zone average. Still, even countries like Germany are experiencing a slowdown in construction, as illustrated by the decline in housing permits.

The good news for the ECB should be the decelerating growth rate in credit to households. Interestingly, in the September ECB press conference, Jean-Claude Trichet spent a long time explaining that several factors are causing broad money growth to rise. He particularly mentioned the flattening of the yield curve, which has increased the attractiveness of monetary assets relative to less liquid, longer-maturity instruments (which should not be too worrisome for the ECB) and the growth of loans to non-financial companies. The recent re-pricing of risks in the credit markets and the ongoing liquidity crisis in Euroland might make these contributions to monetary growth particularly vulnerable in the next months. This should please the ECB.

To sum it up, Euroland enjoyed strong real estate markets over the last years with some similarities to the U.S. when it comes to price appreciation or the contribution of residential investment to GDP growth in some countries. Euroland is now suffering from a significant slowdown in housing, which is most likely going to impact consumption negatively and slow down credit growth to households. In fact, some of these effects are already visible and contributed to the recent downward revisions of GDP growth forecasts for 2008 by most market participants. Ultimately, the housing market developments in Euroland support the case for an ECB on hold for now.

> In the meantime the cpi is climbing to levels we havn´t seen since the ECB is in charge and is sharply higher than their official 2% percent target.... Thank god they are vigilant..... No wonder more and more peoople are daydreamimg how the Bundesbank have handled this mess

> In der Zwischenzeit bewegt sich die Konsumentenpreisinflation auf Höhen die wir seitdem die EZB das Ruder übernommen hat nicht gesehen haben...Zum Glück wird ja täglich betont das sie sehr wachsam sind.......Es wundert mich nicht das sich immer mehr Leute fragen wie eine unabhängige Bundesbank diese Situation gehandhabt hätte.

Abn Amro "won't Touch This", Comparison of UK and US housing markets / pdf

i disagree with the optimistic abn ambro view about the us houisng market. but i think they a correct view on the uk market. ugly!

ich stimme sicher nicht mit der zu optimistischen abn sichtweise in sachen us immobilienmarkt überien, baer ich denke das sie den uk markt extrem gut treffen. sieht übel aus!

thanks to "bobsta"

U can’t touch this
Dario keeps handing us sticks to beat him with. After telling us about his pink mountain bike last week, he recently revealed his most recent music purchase: MC Hammer. This makes his criticism of Rob’s musical tastes (the Pet Shop Boys and Abba) look pitiable. Obviously, this has very little to do with the subject of today’s Overnight Report, which focuses on the US and UK housing markets. Except that markets clearly believe it’s ‘Hammer time’ for US housing, while UK housing is ‘Too Legit to Quit’. But if you ask me, it’s UK homeowners who need to Pray’ (Perkins tells me these are MC Hammer song titles – we’ve hit a new low).

i can´t stand mc hammer so i´ve taken the "family guy" version :-)

Tim has outlined our view on the US housing market in previous Overnight Reports,so there’s little point in repeating the analysis. In short, we remain optimistic that the economy will prove resilient to problems in housing and the worst could already be behind us.

> very optimistic...i disagree

> extrem optimistisch. ich denke wir sehen gerade erst den anfang

Yet despite our upbeat view, we recognize why investors are concerned. If problems in sub-prime cause a broader credit crunch across the economy, we could end up looking pretty silly (a feeling familiar to some of us – Ed). Still, there seems to be an inconsistency here. Markets appear relatively relaxed about the UK housing market, which looks more vulnerable to a correction.

At this stage, I should probably clarify something. We don’t deny that US housing is overvalued. House prices will need to fall in real terms over the medium term. Yet given solid employment growth, rising incomes and – most importantly - unusually low long-term interest rates, it seems possible to rationalize where we are now.

>i think they left out speculation, excess, fraud, lax lending, creative financing ......

> denke die unterschlagen hier galanterweise spekulation, betrug, keine kreditstandtarts, kreative finanzierungsformen,......

In contrast, developments in the UK look harder to explain. Still, it hasn’t stopped some from trying. We are told the lack of spare land, rising immigration and demographic factors justify the premium on UK housing. But I’m yet to be convinced. These factors should boost prices and rents by a similar amount, as marginal buyers are forced into the rental market. Yet prices have risen far more quickly than rents over the last decade. The ratio of house prices to rents is now almost 50% higher than its long-run trend, compared with around 25% in the US. In fact, prices have risen so much faster than rents that rental yields are now below mortgage rates. In other words, property ‘investment’ is generating a negative cashflow. It’s only the expectation of further capital gains that is sustaining demand.

With house prices appearing more detached from fundamentals, the UK housing market could be more vulnerable to a correction than the US. There are also reasons to believe this could be more problematic for the wider economy. Owing to the lack of supply flexibility (economists call it an ‘inelastic’ supply curve), the burden of adjustment would fall on prices rather than quantities, the opposite to what we have seen in the US (see the illustration on page 2). This is how ‘spillover’ effects could occur. Falling house prices would depress household wealth and spending, especially as UK consumers hold a larger share of their wealth in housing than in the US. And given the concentration of default risk and sharper increases in household debt, the banking sector could also be exposed. While the latest RICS survey shows UK housing is still ‘Gaining Momentum’, we all know ‘This is the Way We Roll’: a housing market collapse will undermine confidence in sterling, preventing the Bank of England from cutting rates and prolonging the downturn.

It seems puzzling that markets worry about excesses in the US, but remain relatively unconcerned about the situation in the UK. The UK has experienced much sharper increases in house prices than nearly all other developed economies in recent years (Chart 1). Is this justified? We think not.

Numerous attempts have been made to rationalize the premium on UK housing. These arguments generally highlight the shortage of supply or a sustained increase in demand (due to immigration or demographics). Yet these trends arenot exclusive to the UK. The Netherlands and Japan have more acute land shortages, but have experienced less rapid increases in house prices

More significant, an increase in housing demand or shortage of supply should put upward pressure on rents, as well as on prices. Over the long-term, rents and house prices should grow in line with each other. Yet this has not been the case. Prices have risen much more rapidly than rents in recent years, suggesting UK housing is overvalued by nearly 50% compared with about 25% in the US (Chart 2).

Rather than fundamentals supporting the housing market, expectations of future gains and speculative activity seem to be driving prices higher. The level of rental yields is perhaps the clearest evidence of this. In the UK, rental yields have fallen below mortgage rates (Chart 3). This implies that housing ‘investment’ is generating a negative cashflow. With buy-to-let demand now accounting for 25% of all new mortgages, this illustrates how fragile demand could be to a shock to expectations.

This greater degree of overvaluation makes UK housing more vulnerable to acorrection than the US. It could also have more significant implications for the wider economy. Owing to the lack of land and inelastic supply, the burden of an adjustment would fall on prices rather than quantities. A given change in demand will generate a larger drop in prices (Chart 4). In regions where land is more abundant, such as the US, the adjustment primarily comes through quantities (i.e. construction output). A fall in UK house prices would depress household wealth, hurting consumer spending. It could also leave the banking sector exposed. If sterling then collapses, the Bank of England could find itself unable to respond.

lets hope abn is allowed to "stay" with their view after their takeover from the british barclays.......

bleibt zu hoffen das abn die selbe sichtweise auch nach der übernahme durch die britische barclays beibehalten "darf"

bubble world tour / economist

looks like germany is a weird place to start a "immobilienblasen"/housingbubble blog............. :-)
the bubble in the usa has popped. it is no question if it is a question when it will deflate in the rest of the world.
more on the bubble worldwide http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/bubble-goes-global.html#links


schon komisch das ich als deutscher ein immobilienblasen blog gestartet habe..... :-)
in den usa ist die blase bereits geplatzt. beim rets ist frage eher wann und nicht ob sie platzen wird. mehr zum weltweiten bubble http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/bubble-goes-global.html#links


While America's housing market cools, property elsewhere is still hot http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8381960

IN MANY countries, people are showing little sign of losing their appetite for residential property. Although the pace in several of the raciest markets around the world has eased a bit in the last quarter, prices have risen by more than 10% in the past year in eight of the countries in our table. ....





However, in America the steam has come out of the housing market. .......


A huge number of homes is awaiting sale: 7.4 months' supply of both existing and new properties.


David Rosenberg, an economist at Merrill Lynch, points out that inventories of new homes are 40% above their historical norm. The number of new properties completed but not yet sold has risen by 50% in the past year, to 166,000. America's builders are cutting back hurriedly. In October alone private residential-construction spending fell by 1.9%; it was 9.4% lower than a year before.

Although America's bubble is deflating, other markets are still looking decidedly frothy. Denmark tops our property-inflation table; elsewhere in Europe, house prices in France, Spain and Ireland are still simmering. In Australia and Britain, where it once seemed that property markets had levelled off, prices have picked up again, rising by 9.5% and 9.6% respectively to November of this year.

The Australian figure disguises marked regional variations. Prices in Sydney rose rapidly in 2003, fell in late 2004 and 2005 and are (just) increasing again. In sizzling Perth prices rose by 46% in the year to the third quarter. In Britain too the pace varies from one area to another: in the year to the third quarter, prices in Northern Ireland rose by a third, ....., while those in the north of England rose by less than 1%. But the renewed pep in the national pattern has revived talk of a housing bubble.

In a thoughtful recent study David Miles, of Morgan Stanley, tries to explain the doubling of real British house prices in the past decade. Some of the increase, he says, can be ascribed to rising real incomes; a smaller share can be explained by increases in population; some can be put down to lower real interest rates (including the keener pricing of mortgages by lenders). However, a lot of it is speculative.(quite an understatement chart!/ lerichte untertreibung chart)

Between one-third and one-half is due to increased expectations of house-price inflation. These amplify the effects of other factors. Faster increases in prices foster the belief that future increases will also be stronger, so that higher prices fuel demand rather than dampen it.



The need to explain so much of Britain's house-price inflation by a change in expectations, writes Mr Miles, “suggests that the current level of house prices may be rather unstable.” Once those expectations come down, real house prices are likely to fall. The trouble, of course, is predicting when. (coming sooner than most people think, kommt schenller als die meisten denken....)