Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Tony Dwyer Is Not Alone..........Of Course It Is Still A Good Time To Buy, Buy, Buy.....

What a "surprise"......Keep the following stats in mind when the daily spin "stocks are cheap on forward pe´s" is hitting the MSM... If you want to hear the "rationale" for a 2000 S&P target in 2013 visit Tony Dwyer & his "brilliant playbook" UPDATE: A guy named Altucher is almost as good It's Not a 'V', It's Even Better, Look for New Highs by 2012 .... There maybe are legitimate reasons to buy stocks, but a favourable opinion from "Wall Street Finest" should definitely not play any role among your screening process .... Except you use them as a "contrary indicator".... ;-)

Welch "Überraschung"......Behaltet die nachfolgenden Daten im Hinterkopf wenn es wie tagtäglich in den Medien und auch der Fachpresse gebehtsmühlenartig wieder heißt "das Aktien auf Bewertung der 2011er Gewinne günstig sind"..... Ein eindrucksvolles "Schauspiel" in dieser Disziplin bietet Tony Dwyer mitsamt seinem "brillianten Playbook" für sein 2000 S&P Ziel im Jahr 2013 UPDATE: Dieser Typ ist mindestens ebenbürtig It's Not a 'V', It's Even Better, Look for New Highs by 2012..... Grundsätzlich mag es ja durchaus gute Gründe die für Aktien sprechen geben, man sollte aber sicherstellen das die Einschätzungen der "Experten" beim Auswahlprozess keinerlei Rolle spielen....Es sei denn man nutzt sie als Kontraindikator.... ;-)



Bespoke
Bloomberg surveys sell-side Wall Street strategists on a weekly basis for their year-end S&P 500 price targets. At the start of 2010, the average year-end S&P 500 price target was 1,225, which would have been a gain of just about 10%. As markets moved higher in the first quarter, strategists upped their year-end targets, and the current average target stands at 1,268. (In the table below, green shaded price targets are ones that have been increased so far this year. No strategists have lowered their targets since the start of the year.) A target of 1,268 translates into a gain of 13.68% for the year and 16.48% from current S&P 500 levels.

There are no strategists with year-end targets that are lower than the index's current levels.
Analysts Projecting 27% Gain in S&P 500 Defy El-Erian Bloomberg

Combined price estimates from more than 2,000 forecasters tracked by Bloomberg show the S&P 500 will rise 27 percent in the next year, the fastest projected rate since February 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The rally above 1,350 will be led by industries most tied to the economy, according to analysts who boosted individual share projections by an average of 0.9 percent in May, the 14th straight monthly increase.

Should analysts’ forecasts for a 27 percent gain in the S&P 500 come true, the gauge would climb to 1,360 by next May, the highest level since June 2008.

The real story here are not the S&P 500 targets from the "strategist" but that they have managed to increase the target since the beginning of the year.... Despite events like the Flash Crash ( "Cancel All Orders, Cancel All Orders....." ), "minor headwinds" when it comes to Sovereign Debt,China , for US companies an unfavourable strong $ , impact from the "Oil Spill" on drillers & still insolvent Banks it´s fair to say that ROSE COLORED GLASSES are still a must have item among way too many among "Wall Street Finest"... ;-)

Die eigentliche Botschaft sind nicht die angegebenen Kursziele, sondern vielmehr die Tatsache das diese trotz einiger unschöner Ereignisse die vermehrt seit Jahresbeginn aufgetaucht sind wie dem sog. Flash Crash ( "Cancel All Orders, Cancel All Orders....." ), "minimalen" Problemen wenn es um Sovereign Debt,China den für US Firmen ungünstigen "starken $" , seit dem BP GAU die Probleme der Ölförderer & die immer noch bemerkenswert schwachen Banken geht, munter fleissig angehoben worden sind..... Denke es ist keine Übertreibung zu sagen das eine ROSAROTE BRILLE unter etlichen von "Wall Street Finest" noch immer zur "Standartausrüstung" gehört.... ;-)

I´ll let "Mr. Anti Spin" David Rosenberg du some further "bashing"..... Do yourself a favour & subscribe to his free DAILY REALITY CHECK... SUPERB!

Überlasse es "Mr. Anti Spin" David Rosenberg noch mehr Wasser in den Wein zu gießen....Empfehle allen sich frei Haus die tägliche Dosis Rosenberg zu genehmigen....

"It’s also fascinating to read the “Ahead of the Tape” column in the WSJ today and to read about the fabulous earnings performance of U.S. companies — a revival built on a weak U.S. dollar, accelerating global growth, fiscal stimulus and a steep yield curve.

Meanwhile, the consensus has just now gone ahead and projected peak earnings for 2011 just as each of these main crutches are reversing course."

AMEN....

McKinsey: Equity Analysts Are Still Too Bullish via Barry

Moreover, analysts have been persistently overoptimistic for the past 25 years, with estimates ranging from 10 to 12 percent a year, compared with actual earnings growth of 6 percent.

Over this time frame, actual earnings growth surpassed forecasts in only two instances, both during the earnings recovery following a recession. On average, analysts’ forecasts have been almost 100 percent too high.”

This chart completes the not so glory picture when is comes to the credibility & reputation from "Wall Street Finest".... If you have the "guts" to read the "rationale" behind Goldmans bullsih call you should read Goldman: "We Raised S&P 500 EPS Estimates Despite Worst May Performance In Almost 50 Years"

Dieser Chart paßt hervorragend ins Bild unm das das wenig glorreiche Bild abrunden....Für alle die die Nerven haben und wissen möchten auf welchen "Modellen" die Schätzungen von Goldman basieren Goldman sollte Goldman: "We Raised S&P 500 EPS Estimates Despite Worst May Performance In Almost 50 Years" lesen....

UPDATE:

Profit-Margin Outlook for U.S. Is ‘Extremely Bad’: Chart of Day Bloomberg

Best Stocks Liked Least by Analysts Missing U.S. Gain Bloomberg

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