Thursday, July 09, 2009

That´s What Is Happening When You Outbid A SWF......Hapag-Lloyd Said To Seek As Much As $2.4 Billion In Capital

No problem with overbidding NOL ( Temasek ) but when your consortium is in part backed by the taxpayer ( City Hamburg & HSH Nordbank ) it is getting "annoying"....Especially when the taxpayer had already to bail out HSH Nordbank with well over € 10 billion ( and counting / see States agree €13bn HSH bail-out ).... Will be interesting to see how long the public will tolerate this form of "patriotism" or should i better say "protectionism"....

Maybe some of the officials were blinded with the success in former interventions (Beiersdorf/Procter&Gamble and Norddeutsche Affinerie/A-Tec).... France must be jealous.......... :-)

Grundsätzlich sind Übernahmen die massivst überbezahlt sind nicht weiter verwerflich...... Anders sieht es da aus wenn das Konsortium das den "Mondpreis" bezahlt hat zu nicht unwesentlichen Teilen der öffentlichen Hand ( Stadt Hamburg & HSH Nordbank ) zuzuordnen ist...... Ganz abgesehen davon das die HSH Nordbank bereits mit etlichen Mrd € ( siehe States agree €13bn HSH bail-out ) von den Steuerzahlern gestützt werden mußte....... Hier eine mehr als gelungene extra3 - Chronologie HSH Nordbank GENIAL :-)

Denke das diese Art des Patriotismus und der Standortpolitik ( evtl. sind die Erinnerungen an früher erfolgreich geschlagene "Schlachten" wie Beiersdorf/Procter&Gamble bzw. Norddeutsche Affinierie/A-Tec noch zu gut in Erinnerung) doch gewaltig aus dem Ruder gelaufen ist...... Böse Zungen könnten hier auch von Protektionismus sprechen...... Da könnte sogar Frankreich neidisch werden... :-)

Flashback October 2008

Rückblende Oktober 2008

TUI Sells Hapag-Lloyd Unit in 4.45 Billion-Euro Deal

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- TUI AG, the German owner of Europe's largest travel company, agreed to sell Hapag-Lloyd to a Hamburg- based investor group in a deal that values the shipping company at 4.45 billion euros ($6 billion).

The Hamburg group, led by the city's government and logistics billionaire Klaus-Michael Kuehne, was the sole remaining bidder after Neptune Orient Lines Ltd. ( Temasek Holdings - the investment arm of the Singapore Government - is the largest single shareholder with a 68% holding ) dropped out on Oct. 10. TUI initiated the sale in March, giving in to investor pressure to focus on tourism.

The investor group, called Albert Ballin KG after a famous Hamburg ship owner, bid for the company to secure jobs and an important part of the city's maritime history. The group consists of the city of Hamburg (Hamburg alone has a holding of about 23 percent), Kuehne, private investment bank M.M. Warburg & Co., regional bank HSH Nordbank AG, and insurers Signal Iduna and Hanse Merkur.
Fast forward to today........

Nun zu der heutigen Schlagzeile.......

Hapag-Lloyd Said to Seek Up to $2.4 Billion Capital

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Hapag-Lloyd AG, Germany’s largest container shipping line, is seeking as much as 1.75 billion euros ($2.4 billion) in capital from lenders and shareholders including TUI AG, two people familiar with the matter said

German banks will be asked to provide a 1 billion-euro loan backed by the federal government, one of the people said. TUI would shoulder 325 million euros and Albert Ballin 425 million euros, the person said. The Hamburg city, part of Albert Ballin, would pay 170 million euros, according to the person.

Doubling down.......Another interesting part is that TUI is still owning over 40 percent and has given Hapag-Lloyd significant credit lines.....The FTD has an estimate of only € 400 Million. According to Manager Magazin & TUI Deal Presentation ( Page 11) it is closer to € 1.4 Billion......

Hört sich für mich ganz nach "verbilligen" an......Interessant ist zudem das TUI immer noch über 40% an der Reederei hält und Hapag-Lloyd zudem nach der FDT mit 400 Mio € an Kreditlinien versorgt hat ( siehe auch Hapag-Lloyd braucht Milliardenhilfe ).Gemäß dem Manager Magazin ( siehe Hapag-Lloyd in schwerer See ) und der TUI Deal Präsentation ( Seite 11 ) vom Februar sind es sogar 1,4 Mrd €. Hier mehr vom Handelsblatt Notruf in stürmischer See

Needless to say that TUI is already rated at JUNK...... I´ll bet that they already regret that they haven´t sold to Temasek......

Brauche wohl nicht weiter erwähnen das TUI selbstredend seit Jahren mit JUNK geratet wird....... Bin mir sicher das die es bereits bitter bereuen nicht an Temasek verkauft zu haben.....

Corporate Rating

Corporate Rating

Ausblick

Standard & Poor´s

B+

negativ

Moody´s

B2

negativ

Here is more on on the outlook for the shipping and container business...........

Hier mehr zum trüben Ausblick für die Containerbranche.........

Trade Update: Container Shipping "A Black Hole of Losses" Naked Capitalism

Cargo ships will carry 27 million fewer containers by year's end than they did in 2008 -- a reduction roughly equivalent to all of the cargo containers handled by the five busiest U.S. seaports in a typical year, according to London-based Drewry Shipping Consultants' Container Forecaster Report.

"There has never been a decline like this before. We have never seen numbers like these," said Neil Dekker, editor of the Drewry report. "The container industry is looking at a $20-billion black hole of losses. We can expect a lot of casualties."...

FT Alphaville

Market imbalances are in our view aggravated by the large newbuilding orderbook across most segments. These vessels will be delivered during difficult market conditions with most having been ordered at high rices. All shipping sectors will likely be affected by the high prices paid for newbuildings in recent years.

By our reckoning, these vessels will, on average, have to earn high freight rates to cover their purchase price and operating costs. With freight rates now very low in some segments, vessel operators look likely to incur substantial losses.

Consequently, we expect that the downturn for shipping will be severe and prolonged. We expect some relief on supply-side pressure, however, to come from widespread newbuilding cancellations or deferrals, and subsequent bankruptcies at weaker shipyards or cancellation of new ‘greenfield’ shipyard projects, primarily in China. We believe this is most likely to affect deliveries in 2011 and 2012

A sudden ratcheting upwards of the risk profile of these portfolios, which is what S&P expects, could mean a quadrupling in demand for regulatory capital under Basel II - quite a significant increase, particularly in these strained times.

The orderbook/current fleet ratio is indeed "stunning"......

Das Verhältnis Orderbuch im Verhältnis zur aktuellen Flotte ist in der Tat "atemberaubend"......

S&P Table of Current fleet and orderbook

I´ll finish with one HSH Nordbank figure ......

Abschließend eine wenig beruhigende HSH Nordbank Zahl

Shipping lending represents 7.4x HSH Nordbank’s equity at end 2007

There is a good chance that large party of the shipping financing arm will be "outsorced" to a Bad Bank.....

Bin mir sicher das große Teile der Schiffsfinanzierungen demnächst in einer eigens dafür gegründeden Bad Bank landen werden.....

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4 Comments:

Blogger jmf said...

You gotta love the "Experts".....

Just in time after a crash to an all time low.....

TUI downgraded to neutral at Goldman Sachs

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs downgraded German travel company TUI to neutral from buy, saying that with additional capital and financing being sought for part-owned container shipping business Hapag Lloyd, there's now a higher risk to TUI shares than originally thought. "Continued weak demand, increasing oil prices and high capital expenditure cause concerns that the additional capital that TUI may have to provide could be high," the broker said

Goldman Sachs hat TUI von "Buy" auf "Neutral" gesenkt. Zudem reduzierte Analystin Julia Winarso in einer Studie vom Freitag das Kursziel von 7,70 auf 4,60 Euro. Sie begründete die neue Einschätzung mit den Finanzsorgen der Reederei Hapag Lloyd. Wegen der anhaltenden schwachen Nachfrage und den steigenden Ölpreisen könnte der zusätzliche Betrag, den der Reisekonzern eventuell für seine Beteiligung aufbringen muss, hoch ausfallen.

1:31 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Japan shipping shares falter Marketwatch

Japanese shipping stocks fell after a report in the Nikkei that rates on container ships from Asia to North America had been dropped for the first time in three years, reaching six-year lows. The paper said in just-ended negotiations with businesses, shippers had agreed to reduce rates by 20% to 40% for the fiscal year ending May 2010.

2:49 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Ozeankrise
FT Deutschland

Die Flaute in der Containerschifffahrt nimmt groteske Formen an. Selbst die größte Reederei der Welt verliert jeden Tag 6 Mio. $. Jetzt müssen die Kapitäne von Maersk Line sparen - und der Besatzung die Servietten streichen......

4:43 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Staat pumpt Millionen in Ostsee-Werft
Ft Deutschland

Die größte Werft Ostdeutschlands steckt tief in der Klemme: Keine sicheren Aufträge, keine liquiden Mittel. Jetzt hilft die Bundesregierung Wadan mit einem Massekredit in Höhe von 190 Mio. Euro.

Das ist in der Summe einer der größten Massekredite, der jemals in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik vergeben wurden, sagte Insolvenzverwalter Marc Odebrecht in Wismar

Die Wadan-Werften in Wismar und Rostock mit rund 2500 Mitarbeitern hatten Anfang Juni Insolvenz angemeldet. Der russische Mehrheitseigner und der koreanische Zweitgesellschafter STX hatten vorher Abnahme- und Finanzierungszusagen zurückgezogen. In der Vergangenheit hatten Bund und Land schon Kredite und Bürgschaften von 220 Mio. Euro für Wadan genehmigt, laut Landesregierung wurden 167 Mio. Euro ausgezahlt.

8:00 AM  

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