Monday, June 29, 2009

Dubai Update.....The Upcoming Skyscraper Tsunami.....

Flashback / Rückblende Feb 2009

In February, Dubai announced a $10 billion bond offering. It was fully subscribed by the central bank of the United Arab Emirates, making it essentially a federal bailout. The Dubai government has used the money to help government-related entities pay off debt.
Dubai is calling the deal between of Emaar with a 100 percent state controlled company a merger.....Good joke...They won´t laugh in Abu Dhabi / UAE for sure.....I´m not sure how long Abu Dhabi ( see also No Kidding.... Dubai May Need Help To Repay Debt...., Dubai's bail-out, Dubai Gets $10 Billion Bailout to Ease Debt , Big spending Dubai may have to be bailed out by Abu Dhabi ) will be "glad" to bail Dubai out..... I assume the next time $ 10 Billion won´t be enough.......

Dubai nennt den Deal zwischen Emaar ( bauen u.a. den modernen Turm zu Babel.... ) und einer anderen Firma die zu 100% im Staatsbesitz zwar eine Fusion. Guter Witz.....In Abu Dhabi / UAE wird man darüber aber wohl kaum lachen ...... Schön zu sehen das der Größenwahn, der nirgends so ausgeprägt gewesen ist wie in Dubai, früher oder später zum scheitern verurteilt ist. Bin gespannt wie lange Abu Dhabi / UAE ( siehe No Kidding.... Dubai May Need Help To Repay Debt.... , Dubai's bail-out, Dubai Gets $10 Billion Bailout to Ease Debt , Big spending Dubai may have to be bailed out by Abu Dhabi ) noch willens ist Dubai mehr oder weniger vor dem Kollaps zu bewahren.... In jedem Fall werden 10 Mrd $ beim nächsten Mal wohl nicht reichen....... UPDATE: ein aktueller Lagebricht von Guido Mingels / Die Zeit Goodbye, Dubai Tip Top!

Dubai Index Drops Most Since November on Emaar’s Merger Plans
June 28 (Bloomberg) -- Emaar Properties PJSC pushed Dubai’s index to its biggest decline in more than seven months on concern shares of the Middle East’s biggest property developer may be suspended or diluted pending a potential merger.

Dubai-based Emaar dropped 10 percent, the maximum daily limit allowed, after the company said it’s in talks to merge with state-controlled Dubai Properties LLC, Sama Dubai LLC and Tatweer LLC, all units of Dubai Holding LLC.
The new entity will have 13.4 billion dirhams ($3.65 billion) in debt obligations, representing 7 percent of total assets, Emaar said today.

“Investors are worried a merger may mean a long share halt as is the case with Amlak and Tamweel,” said Mohamed Dwaikat, a broker at Al Fajer Securities in Abu Dhabi. “There is also concern about a possible dilution of the shares.” Amlak Finance PJSC and Tamweel PJSC, the United Arab Emirates biggest mortgage firms, haven’t traded since November pending a planned merger.

The Dubai Financial Market General Index lost 6.1 percent, the biggest fall since November, to 1,745.07, trimming the gain for this quarter to 11 percent. Abu Dhabi’s ADX General Index retreated 2 percent, paring this year’s advance to 7.7 percent.

Emaar, which is building the world’s tallest tower and makes up about 20 percent of Dubai’s index,fell to 2.89 dirhams.
Al Mal Capital PSC suspended its recommendation on the company, saying the planned merger could be “potentially dilutive” for Emaar shareholders.

Dubai Holding is a 100 percent state-controlled entity, while the government of Dubai owns about a 31 percent stake in Emaar, Bloomberg data show.

> At least Dubai´s sovereign debt rating is better than Iceland´s............

> Dubai schafft es immerhin Island in Scahen Kreditwürdigkeit zu schlagen.......

Sov debt riskiest

> Judging the following project ( see Dubai plans 'moving' skyscraper BBC) i think the term megalomaniac isn´t far-fetched....... I´m pretty sure there is ZERO chance that this "vision" will be build. The following clip is from mid 2008 and clearly a sign how far this bubble has been pumped up....

> Bei Betrachtung der nächsten "Vision" ( siehe Dubai plans 'moving' skyscraper BBC ) ist der Begriff "Größenwahn" sicher nicht zu hoch gegriffen....... Gehe jede Wette ein das dieses Objekt niemals gebaut werden wird. Der nachfolgende Clip ist von Mitte 2008 und zeigt eindrucksvoll welche Aussmaße die Blase zwischenzeitlich angenommen hat.

> Thank god there isn´t a lot of new space coming online .......;-) Now combine the upcoming glut with the sky high price level ( HT Paul Kedrosky )...... DOH! As far as i can see i think not an insignificant amount of the regions SWF will be needed to prop up the banking sector......

> Gottseidank kommt in nächster Zeit ja kaum neues "Material" auf den Markt......;-) Die beste "Medizin" um das bereits jetzt astronomisch hohe Preisniveau ( Dank an Paul Kedrosky ) zu halten..... Denke das ein nicht unwesentlicher Teil der Sovereign Wealth Funds in der Region demnächst benötigt werden um das heimische Bankensystem zu stützen.......

Future Dubai skyscrapers Wikipedia
Under construction Burj Dubai · Pentominium · Burj Al Alam · DAMAC Heights · Princess Tower · Marina 101 · 23 Marina · Emirates Park Towers Hotel & Spa · Elite Residence · Lam Tara Towers · D1 · The Marina Torch · Infinity Tower · Al Yaquob Tower · The Index · HHHR Tower · Ocean Heights · Ahmed Abdul Rahim Al Attar Tower · Central Park Towers · I&M Tower · Dubai Pearl · Sulafa Tower · G-Tower · Mag 218 Tower · Acico Twin Towers · Marina Pinnacle · Khalid Al Attar Tower 2 · Vision Tower · Ubora Commercial Tower · Conrad Dubai · Metro Tower · Al Tayer Tower · Churchill Towers · Sama Tower · The Buildings by Daman · Rolex Tower · Anantara Towers · Tiara United Towers · Al Bateen Tower · Trident Grand Residence · Latifa Tower · Executive Towers · Grosvenor House The Residence · Concorde Tower · Platinum Tower · Dubai Jewel Tower · Jumeirah Bay · Sidra Tower · Dubai Tower · Tiffany Towers · Silver Star · The Bay Gate · Dubai Islamic Bank Tower · Jumeirah Al Khor Residence · Pier 8 · Iris Bay · Liberty House · Goldcrest Executive · Dubai Gate 1 · The Prism · AG Tower · AU Tower · Lake Point Tower · Swiss Tower · Goldcrest Views 2 · The Residences · Silverene · Dubai Arch Tower · Laguna Tower · Verde Residences and Offices

Approved Dubai Towers Dubai · Lighthouse Tower · Al Sharq Tower · The Skyscraper · Al Hekma Tower · Providence Tower · The Palm Trump International Hotel & Tower · Abjar Tower · Nili Tower · ARY Digital Tower · Boraq Tower · The Sheffield Tower · Fortune Araames · Duja Tower · El Matador Tower · Arabian Crowne · Mag 220 Tower · The Dome · Jumeirah Business Center 1 · The Prime Tower · The Forum

Proposed Dubai City Tower · Nakheel Tower · Anara Tower · 1 Park Avenue · Meraas Tower · Marina Sky Towers · Marina 106 · Dynamic Tower · P-17 · The Wave Tower · Signature Towers · His Highness Sheikh Hasher Tower · Beachfront Tower Hotel · Beach Towers · Time Residences · Al Ghaith Tower

> I doubt that even one proposed or approved object will be realized.... Wouldn´t surprise me if we see will something similar what happened in Bangkok ......

> Von den genehmigten bzw. angedachten Projekten wird sicher kaum eines je verwirklicht werden..... Denke es grenzt bereits an ein Wunder wenn die bereits im Bau befindlichen Objekte fertiggesetllt werden.....Könnte leicht passieren das sich ähnliches wie in Bangkok wiederholt......

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Blogger jmf said...

Saudi Arabia’s Algosaibi Said to Owe $9.2 Billion

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Ahmad Hamad Algosaibi & Brothers Co., the Saudi family holding company whose Bahraini bank has defaulted, owes 34.6 billion Saudi riyals ($9.2 billion) to more than 100 banks, two people familiar with the situation said.

The size of Algosaibi’s liabilities “strikes the markets as a surprise,” said Luis Costa, an emerging-markets debt strategist at Commerzbank AG in London. “This is a problem when it comes to buying anything originated from the Middle East, how to properly measure the leverage of players there.”

Banks that provided at least $64 billion to Saudi borrowers in the past five years as record oil prices spurred economic growth for the world’s biggest crude exporter now risk losses because the country’s first recession in a decade is threatening the wealth of some of the most powerful families.

4:41 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Shakeout in Dubai
FT Alphaville Feb 2009

On Monday, Moody’s warned it would be reviewing the ratings of six government-owned companies in Dubai for possible downgrade:

The six affected companies are:
- Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group (rated A1),
- DP World (A1),
- DIFC Investments (A1),
- Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (A1),
- Jebel Ali Free Zone (A1) and
- Emaar Properties (A3).

Moody’s believes that material alterations will be required to reign in capital spending and thus match lower investments with lower expected cash flows over the medium term.

However, the government’s capacity to support seems limited and is likely to be impaired by the worsening economic situation. Unlike most other governments in the GCC, notably that of its oil-rich neighbour Abu Dhabi, Dubai’s government is not known to hold substantial offshore liquid assets that can potentially be tapped to finance fiscal deficits and bolster the operations of the wider public sector.

Moody’s is aware of the Dubai government’s announcement in November that it held at least $90 billion in assets. Yet the composition of these assets has not been revealed and therefore their liquidity cannot be taken for granted. A request for further information regarding these assets will form a core part of Moody’s ratings review

10:07 AM  
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