Monday, August 11, 2008

Showing Stress.....& The Impotent Fed.

I think it is safe to say that the spreads in the auto & credit card segment will spike much higher in the coming quarters.... And this trend will spread around the globe.....

Ich bin mir ziemlich sicher das die Risikoaufschläge besonders im PKW und Kreditkartenbereich in den nächsten Quartalen noch erheblich steigen werden. Und das betrifft dann nicht nur die USA betreffen...... Passend hierzu aus der FAZ Unternehmensanleihen : Dunkle Wolken über spekulativen Werten

Worry About Stretched Firms,Consumers Hits Debt Markets WSJ
A range of corporate bonds and securities backed by consumer loans and mortgages have sagged in recent weeks to levels last seen in March, when worries about a financial crisis hit a high.

This time there is much less panic, but concern is building about the health of businesses and consumers.

The weakness is most visible in the debt of auto makers, retailers and companies in sectors reliant on consumer spending. Bonds issued by some financial institutions are also strained.

While a large-scale credit meltdown looks unlikely now, rising bond yields will make it harder and more expensive for corporations and individuals to finance their businesses, homes, education and day-to-day expenses.

Investors are demanding higher interest rates on most corporate and asset-backed debt. The average junk bond now yields around 8.1 percentage points more than Treasury securities, or 11.5%. That compares with a yield of 11.1% and spread of 8.6 percentage points on March 17, according to data from Merrill Lynch & Co.

Average spreads on bonds backed by auto loans and credit cards are three percentage points and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, close to their highs this spring. .....

Moody's Investors Service recently surveyed 31 companies that distribute gas to households. Of the group, 18 companies said an increasing number of customers were falling behind on their gas bills this year compared to last year

> No surprise to see that banks are once more procyclical in their lending habbits ( Same is happening in Europe WSJ: Euro Banks Tighten Lending Standards via Calculated Risk) ....... Too bad that there is so far no bill/law that allow Bernanke & Paulson to order banks to lend...... But with all the attempts we have seen you can´t even rule this out for the future ........ :-)

> Schon bemerkenswert wie es Banken immer wieder schaffen Ihre Kreditvergabekriterien immer prozyklisch dem Markt anzupassen anstelle in Zeiten des offensichtlichen Exzesses gegenzusteuern ( gleiches passiert auch in Europa Banken geizen mit Krediten FTD ).... Zu dumm das es bisher noch keine gesetzliche Handhabe für Bernanke und Paulson gibt die Banken zu verpflichten mehr zu vereleihen.... Nach allem was bisher aus den USA gekommen ist kann man aber selbst das zukünftig nicht mehr ganz auschließen..... :-)


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