Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Havn´t Heard The Word Decoupling For A Long Time......

I think it is safe to say that the downturn isn´t solely the result from the government efforts ( raising price for gasoline, hiking reserve requirements & rates, lending restrictions, yuan appreciation etc ) to slow down the economy.... Just one look at the CIMC Chart ( claimes to make 50 percent of all shipping containers ) is enough to see that the slowdown in the US has spread already to Europe and is now hitting Asia/China. It will be interesting to see if the communist party in China will still be able to keep the people "quiet" & "under control" during a longer lasting downturn......

Denke es ist nicht vermessen zu sagen das sich die nachfolgende Übersicht nicht alleine aus den Versuchen der chinesischen Regierung ( höhere Benzinpreise, Erhöhung der Mindestreservesätze und Zinsen, Verschörfung der Kreditbedingungen, Aufwertung des Yuan´s usw ) geschuldet ist.... Ein weiter Blick auf den CIMC Chart ( stellen nach eigenen Angaben 50% aller Schiffahrtscontainer her ) weist ebenfalls darauf hin das die viel zu oft gehörte These der "Abkopplung" einzelner Regionen nichts weiter als Wunschdenken gewesen ist. Der US Abschwung hat Europa bereits voll erfasst und ist gerade dabei Asien und den Rest der Welt mit voller Wucht zu treffen.

Bin wirklich gespannt ob der Kommunitischen Partei gelingt auch während einer länger anhaltenden wirtschaftlichen Schwächephase die Kontrolle im Land zu behalten. Habe nachdem was ich in letzter Zeit in Sachen Umwelt, Korruption, Unabhängigkeit der Justiz, Presse-und Meinungsfreiheit usw gehört habe ensthafte Zweifel....

Booming China Suddenly Worries That a Slowdown Is Taking Hold NYT

A Slowdown in China

Brad Setser has a different view

Brad Setser hat eine andere Sicht der Dinge

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Anonymous Barley said...

Good day. Lets watch the TED spread tomorrow. I am a small fry in this gigantic mess, but something seems not right.

USG Ts 2 vs 10 are mispriced and acting wierd, in my humble opinion.

Korea ups their rates??? What am I missing? China has to follow, no? Are we chasing yield or in a preservation mode. Me thinks the latter.

7:18 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Barley,

the Korean move was indeed a big surprise.

I´m pretty sure that the next move from the ECB will be a cut. I excpect it in early 2009.

I have heard the Freddie conference call yesterday. The management is betting that the newly formed regulator will wave almost all restrictins and "underwrtite" all "creative" assummtions ( related to their multibillion $ taxposition, that would fall apart if Freddie would be a normal bank....)

Reason for his optimism......

Without the GSE´s the depression is near.....

Unfortunatley i think he´is spot on.....


8:36 PM  
Anonymous Barley said...

I am alone once again.

I think China will tighten big time. Inflation is a huge worry.

ECB will not cut - at best remain neutral which means status quo.

The US will restrain itself and backstop the buck by other measures. (buying 10 years?)

I am holding to DOW 9,600 - and I do not care who laughes.

What a mess. Even three months ago I would have sought/seen a solution...cant now because it all seems so misplaced.

Short term interest - I love Sweden

10:38 PM  

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