Monday, August 20, 2007

Marc Faber On The Fed Move

As always worth the listening. Click on the Headline to start the Bloomberg Interview

Wie immer hörenswert. Klickt bitte auf die Überschrift um das Bloomberg Interview zu starten.

He also has some insight on market internals

Zudem hat er noch einige Daten zur Markttechnik

Dr Doom: Marc Faber on whether to buy or sell amidst the ‘rot and leverage’

On August 16, 2007, says Faber: “The Dow first sold off more than 300 points, but ended the session basically unchanged. On the same day, we had on the NYSE only 10 stocks hitting 52 weeks new highs, but a staggering 1,045 stocks reaching new lows (which would indicate to me some kind of an intermediate panic low for the stock market).

“Moreover, the US stock market reached strong support around the March 2007 low of 1,363 for the S&P500, which ended the sharp February 25-March 13 correction.”

On August 17, adds Faber, “the S&P500 soared 34 points and the Dow Jones 233 points, as the Fed cut the discount rate. However, new 52-week highs expanded to only 55 and were outpaced by 149 new lows, which is unusual during such a powerful upward move.”

Faber is also “not surprised”, he says, by the strong rally from the August 16 intraday low, “because investors are still conditioned to buy the dips and not to sell into strength”. The fear of ‘missing the next advance’ is negative for the market, from what Faber calls his “contrarian point of view”.
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13 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Escape of the Enablers


http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/17/commentary/sloan_enablers.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007082009

7:44 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Nice rant :-)

7:50 AM  
Blogger jmf said...


Fannie Mae to skip benchmark debt offering in August


FNM will skip a benchmark debt offering for the first time since May 2006, the company said Monday. "We utilized our option to pass," a spokeswoman said, without elaborating further. Fannie is permitted to pass twice a year on the offerings. On its web site, Action Economics said the move "suggests that demand [for] even high-rated mortgage paper is scant at the moment and impacting funding plans at the agency." Shares of Fannie Mae were recently off 1.1%, at $66.55

8:43 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

13-WEEK TREASURY BILL
20-Aug-07 3.02
17-Aug-07 3.62
16-Aug-07 3.70
15-Aug-07 4.13
14-Aug-07 4.50
13-Aug-07 4.53
10-Aug-07 4.41
9-Aug-07 4.72
8-Aug-07 4.80

9:13 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

EU to investigate credit agencies

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/16/business/ratings.php

9:23 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interessant?

https://mfi-assets.ecb.int/dla/EA/ea_all_070817.txt
https://mfi-assets.ecb.int/dla/EA/ea_upd_070817.txt

http://www.ecb.int/udl.html?doc_id=gendoc_en

9:27 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So who suddenly needs a safe home in USD for 3 months?

10:31 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Must be someone selling.... or "hedging" some 3 month exposure.

10:33 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mmmmmmm..

August 20 2007
13-WEEK BILLS
CUSIP:912795B34
(amounts in Mns)
Tender Type Tendered Accepted

Primary Dealer $ 26,235 $16,459
Direct Bidder $ 205 $ 180
Indirect Bidder $ 2,170 $ 2,157

Total Compet $ 28,610 $ 18,796
Rate = 2.850

26-WEEK BILLS
CUSIP:912795C82
(amounts in Mns)
Tender Type Tendered Accepted

Primary Dealer $ 24,070 $ 12,438
Direct Bidder $ 83 $ 83
Indirect Bidder $ 2,038 $ 2,026
Total Compet $ 26,191 $14,548

Rate = 3.950

August 13 2007
13-WEEK BILLS
CUSIP:912795B26
(amounts in Mns)
Tender Type Tendered Accepted
Primary Dealer $ 41,749 $ 14,640
Direct Bidder $ 275 $ 253
Indirect Bidder $ 3,808 $ 3,760
Total Compet $ 45,832 $ 18,654

Rate= 4.630

26-WEEK BILLS
CUSIP:912795C74
(amounts in Mns)
Tender Type Tendered Accepted
Primary Dealer $ 32,205 $ 8,454
Direct Bidder $ 2,100 $ 2,093
Indirect Bidder $ 4,179 $ 4,068
Total Compet $ 38,484 $ 14,616
Rate = 4.710


August 6 2007
13-WEEK BILLS
CUSIP:912795A92
(amounts in Mns)
Tender Type Tendered Accepted
Primary Dealer $ 36,460 $ 13,469
Direct Bidder $ 170 $ 170
Indirect Bidder $ 5,737 $ 5,237
Total Compet $ 42,367 $ 18,876
Rate = 4.770

26-WEEK BILLS
CUSIP:912795C66
(amounts in Mns)
Tender Type Tendered Accepted
Primary Dealer $ 30,001 $ 9,234
Direct Bidder $ 2,330 $ 2,330
Indirect Bidder $ 4,366 $ 4,229
Total Compet $ 36,697 $ 15,793
Rate = 4.730

1:35 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Marketwatch has some thoughts in the run to the 3 month bills


Short-term bond rally puts Fed to the test


Analysts said the rally in short-term T-bills indicated nervousness remained in credit markets, leading investors to seek the safe-haven of government bonds. Expectations that the central bank will cut its key Fed funds rate was also boosting short-term Treasury bonds.

But money failed to convincingly return to the commercial bond market on Monday, where liquidity has been drying up in recent weeks.

"Low T-bill yields indicate that liquidity is not yet flowing to those areas of the credit markets that need liquidity most, such as toward the mortgage market and the commercial paper markets, for example, where investors have been on a buying strike," said Tony Crescenzi, fixed-income analyst at Miller Tabak.

"It is not Uncle Sam that needs lower borrowing costs; the private sector needs it," he wrote in a note.

Meanwhile, Monday's auction of 3-months T-bills showed weak demand, with investors reluctant to buy the bills at much lower yields directly from the Treasury.

9:23 PM  
Blogger jmf said...


Shorts Brace for Rate Cut; T-Bills Go Wild



The yield on the three-month Treasury bill Monday was down another 100 basis points to 3.07% while commercial paper operations are "under severe duress," writes Deutsche Bank chief economist Joe Lavorgna.

9:29 PM  
Anonymous minimum insurance requirements contractor w said...

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10:40 AM  
Anonymous altoona pennsylvania bike tour said...

Nice Article.

11:30 AM  

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