Sunday, June 17, 2007

Number Of The Day.....Central Banks Are Increasing Risk

wow! don´t know how to read this number. on the one hand it is for sure not good news for government bonds. this is especially true for US treasuries. on the other hand it is somewhat frightening to see that now central banks are increasing risk in an attempt to boost returns. this comes just at the point when spreads are almost nonexistent and the risks are higher then in the past. one more reason to own gold....... :-)

the right graph shows the spread on European investment grade bonds vs. euro government bonds. the picture around the world is from a historic perspective quite similar. donnerwetter! bin mir nicht ganz sicher wie man diese zahl deuten soll. auf der einen seite sicher keine guten news für staatsanleihen. das gilt sicher besonders für US anleihen. auf der anderen seite kann einem ganz schön mulmig werden wenn man bedenkt das jetzt selbst die zentralbanken probieren ihr risiko just zu dem zeitpunkt erhöhen wo weltweit die risikiaufschläge historische tiefs erlangt haben und die risiko ungleich größer als in der vergangenheit sind. ein grund mehr gold zu besitzen..... :-)

Seventy-four percent of central banks surveyed by Zurich- based UBS AG this month said they increased their holdings of asset-backed securities, emerging market debt and other higher- risk securities this year. In the next year, 68 percent plan to add more, according to the survey, which covers banks that oversee 91 percent of the world's foreign-currency reserves.

> the number gets more worrysome if you consider that some of the central banks (Spain, Swiss) are selling big parts of their gold holdings at the same time........

>das ganze wird noch bemerkenswerter wenn man bedenkt das einige zentralbanken (Spanien, Schweiz) zeitgleich bedeutende teile ihres goldbestandes veräussern

disclosure: long gold, goldbugs/hui

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