Tuesday, September 05, 2006

us hauspreisstatistik / ofheo data

OFHEO: FASTEST DECELERATION IN HOME PRICES IN 3 DECADES

U.S. 2Q OFHEO HOUSE PRICE INDEX UP 4.7% ANNUALIZED

U.S. 2Q OFHEO HOUSE PRICE INDEX UP 10.1% YEAR-ON-YEAR

U.S. home prices were appreciating at a 4.7% annual rate in the second quarter, the slowest gains since 1999, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said Tuesday. In the past year, home prices are up 10.1%. The purchase-only index is up 8.3% in the past year. The deceleration in OHFHEO's home price index is the fastest in the three-decade history of the index. "These data are a strong indication that the housing market is cooling in a very significant way," said James Lockhart, OFHEO director. In the first quarter, home prices had risen at an 8.8% annualized rate, with prices up 12.8% year-over-year

zusatz vom http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1382
Comment by Paul in Jax
2006-09-05 07:48:22
OFHEO data is great, but remember this news is about six months old. 9/5/06 is for April-June quarter: assume average closing date in that quarter of mid-May and therefore average contract date of mid-March. I sold a house in Va. in exactly that period at a nice price including some very slight appreciation over 2005. House could not be sold for same price today.



besten dank für diesen hinweis. ich wollte schon wieder zu meinem üblichen gezeter in sachen us statistiken ansetzen. da der crash im 2 quartal eingesetzt hat und diese daten erst zeitverzögert kommen wird das nächste quartal wohl brutal.

update: dank an deb und benhttp://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1387#comments

Comment by deb
2006-09-05 09:48:40
The OFHEO data is not terribly relevant for many high priced metro areas. The methodology uses only “TRANSACTIONS INVOLVING CONFORMING, CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGES PURCHASED OR SECURITIZED BY FANNIE MAE OR FREDDIE MAC”. How many transaction in Los Angeles or similarly high priced cities meet this criteria? I would guess only a small fraction. So they are basing this entire index on the sales at the VERY BOTTOM entry level into the market, and most likely transactions involving somewhat more qualified buyers who can actually get standard financing meeting GSE guidelines.
Not a very representative sampling!

noch ein update: dank geht an WaitingInOC und ben jones

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1394#comments

From an article in today’s NY Times: “Ms. Chen [of Moody’s] noted that the [OFHEO] index showed that prices were still rising in much of California, Arizona and Florida, states that experienced some of the biggest rises during the recent boom. But that may be in part a result of the fact that the government’s home price measure does not include homes with mortgages greater than $417,000.”

das sollte man nocheinmal besonders hervorheben!. die wirklichkei sieht also noch brutaler aus.

jan-martin

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