Monday, July 31, 2006

nyt zum gdp und housing

noch ne nachgereichte anaylse zu den letzten gdp zahlen (konnte den genauen link leider nicht kopieren)

auszüge aus dem bericht:

“Housing is going from being far and away the most important contributor to growth to being a measurable drag, and it’s happening gracefully so far,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s, a research company. “But there’s now a growing and measurable risk that things don’t go according to plan.”

More broadly, just as rising housing prices during the boom added to Americans’ sense of wealth and well-being — encouraging them to spend more on a variety of goods and services — the reverse could dampen sentiment and lead consumers to pull back on their purchases.
(genau dasselbe wie seinerzeit mit dem gefühlten reichtum durch die aktien, leider übersteigt diese blase die letzte um ein vielfaches)

While the fate of housing prices has received far more attention recently than real estate’s role as an engine of job growth, the sector has also become one of the country’s most important industries. Residential construction and all the activity that swirls around it — mortgage lending, renovations and the like — account for roughly 16 percent of the economy, making it the largest single sector, slightly bigger than health care.
(diese zahl muß man sich mal auf der zunge zergehen lassen. vergleich das mal mit deutschland! die indirekte zahl durch den damit angefachten kaufboom durch den illusion des reichtums dürfte um einiges höher liegen)

For much of the last five years, housing — along with health care — was also one of the only reliable generators of jobs. From the start of 2001, when the Fed began cutting its benchmark rate to steady a faltering economy, until early last year, the housing sector added 1.1 million jobs.

The rest of economy lost 1.2 million jobs over the same period, according to an analysis by Moody’s

Housing continued its rapid growth last year, and other industries began hiring in far greater numbers than they had been, creating the healthiest national job market since 2000. In the last few months, though, three pillars of the housing sector — homebuilders, mortgage lenders and real-estate agencies — have stopped adding to their payrolls, and overall job growth in housing has begun to slow.

The period of irrational exuberance we saw in ’04 and ’05 and the gold rush fever has gone away,” Mr. Restrepo said.

Still, building activity for single-family homes, condos, hotels and casinos in Las Vegas is vibrant enough that construction workers are not struggling to find work, said George Vaughn, a business manager for a local of the Laborer’s International Union of North America, which represents almost 5,000 workers in Las Vegas. “The boom is still on,” he said.
(muß satire sein! evtl. meint er aber auch das weiter fleißig gebaut wird obwohl die leerstände schon auf rekordständen sind und die zwangsvollstreckungen explodieren. je länger dieser "boom" dauert desto schlimmer wir unweigerlich der bust sein)



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