Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Spain Bubble & Recession Update

Finally the bursting of the housing bubble has arrived in Spain ( even for the permabulls ) . One of the biggest real estate companies in Spain in going under. Spain is going into a severe recession. Just look at the different charts or watch the clip and everybody with common sense ( doesn´t include economists, "Madrid´s Finest", politicians, management etc) should know that this is going to be very very nasty and not shortlived.......

Wenn einer der größten Immobilienkonzerne Konkurs geht sollte auch dem letzten Daueroptimisten klar sein das die Party vorbei ist. Es ist ausgemachte Sache das Spanien die nächsten Jahre in eine tiefe und langwierige Rezession abgleiten wird. Man braucht nur einen Blick auf die Charts und den Clip zu werfen. Warum diese Entwicklung keiner der "Experten" hat kommen sehen ist schockierend und zeigt einmal mehr das man am besten generell dem gesunden Menschenverstand vertrauen soll. Unabhängig davon was einem täglich von offizieller oder professioneller Seite eingeredet wird. Schließe da auch ausdrücklich alle Medien und sog. Anlegermagazine mit ein.....

When reading the next number it is important to note that France, Germany & UK have a combined population of 200 mio vs 46 Mio in Spain......

Beim Betrachten der nächste Zahl sollte man sich besonders vor Augen halten das Frankreich, Deutschland und England zusammen knapp 200 Mio auf sich vereinen. Spanien hat 46 Mio.....

For a decade, the Spanish housing sector enjoyed uninterrupted growth, as low interest rates encouraged borrowing. Average house prices have nearly quadrupled during the past 10 years. About 750,000 homes were built in Spain in 2006 -- more than in France, Germany and the U.K. combined. WSJ

Martinsa asks for creditor protection FT

Martinsa Seeks Bankruptcy Protection After Failing to Get Loan Bloomberg

In Spanien schlägt die Immobilienkrise durch FAZ (inklusive etlicher Charts )

When you now take into account that almost 10 percent of GDP is related to residential housing........

Wenn man jetzt bedenkt das in Spanien ca. 10 des BSP am privaten Wohnungsbau hängen.....

Make sure you watch this clip......

Hier ein reales Beispiel wie sehr die Blase das Leben der "normalen" Menschen bereits jetzt verändert hat.... Möchte nicht wissen wie das Update aussehen würde.....



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4 Comments:

Anonymous Brian Woods said...

Ireland had a larger residential and commercial price-bubble increase than Spain - over 300%.

You could realistically describe our current economic situation using an aviation analogy; Controlled Descent into Terrain.

The residential property market is declining fast, and the commercial market has faltered also. Bank stocks are down 70% YoY. VAT, Excise duties, Cap Gains and Income Tax revenues are all down; by 600 M Euro against the expected.

Interesting times!

Brian P

11:47 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Brian,

i totally agree.

The pricture in Ireland is indeed as bleak or even bleaker than in Spain.

I have vidited Ireland several times during the past few years and the building real estat frenzy was breathtaking.

But at least Ireland has the tasty Guiness to deal with the slump :-)

9:02 PM  
Anonymous eh said...

Spain has a rather soft economy. If you want to see a recession there, take away its EU subsidies.

1:39 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Eh,

even the greatest subsidies can´t save Spain from the coming slump.... :-)

1:49 AM  

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