Thursday, August 21, 2008

Science Fiction On Wall Street.....

"Wall Street Finest" are doing it again..... Click here to see the S&P calculation which would make even the BLS jealous...... Nice to see that the difference between "operating eranings" and "reported earnings" (GAAP) is spiking. In the fourth quater of 2006 operating earnings were $ 21,99 and reported $ 20,24.... The forecast for the fourth quarter of 2009 is $ 29,24 and $ 14,7......So don´t be fooled when they are coming up with an estimated PE close to 12.... Easy to calculate what this would be if they would use the real earnings number...... Blodget would be proud.......

Was uns hier von den sogenannten Experten aufgetischt wird verschlägt sogar mir fast die Sprache..... Schon dumm wenn man anscheinend keine anderen Kaufargumente mehr für den US Markt zusammenschustern kann. Wer herzhaft Lachen möchte dem rate ich here die Kalkulation von S&P anzusehen ( Warnung: bitte vorher den Kaffe aus der Hand nehmen.... ). Besondere Erwähnung muß die sich dramatisch ausweitende Spanne zwischen den sog "operativen" und den "ausgewiesenen" (GAAP) Ergebnissen finden. So war zum Beispiel im 4. Quartal 2006 die Spanne noch zu vernachlässigen ( 21,99$ zu 20,24$). Für die Q4 2009 Prognose ergibt sich ein Wert von 29,24$ zu 14,17$........Laßt Euch also nicht veräppeln wenn demnächst wieder die Schlagzeile dien Runde macht das der US Markt für 2009 ein KGV von 12 ausweist.... Unschwer zu erkennen wie hoch es nach "realen" Berechnungsmethoden sein müßte...... Kein Wunder das die Spinmaster aus der Finanzwelt (rund um den Globus) immer neue Bezeichnungen für die Gewinngröße "erfinden" müssen um dem Rest der Wert vorzugaukeln das die Märkte doch billig sind

Earnings Look Great, to Analysts Anyway Floyd Norris / NYT
Did you know that corporate America is going to post record profits in the final quarter of this year?

Neither did I. But that is the collective wisdom of the people who follow those companies for brokerage firms.

Howard Silverblatt, the market maven at Standard & Poor’s, has that amazing news on his blog today. It seems that the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 will post operating earnings of $24.61 per S.&P. unit in the fourth quarter. That would break the quarterly earnings record of $24.06 set in the second quarter of last year.

Since then earnings have been plunging, but the analysts have lots more good news. The financial stocks will return to profitability in the third quarter of this year, the one now nearing an end. And in 2009 the record annual earnings rate of 2006 will be smashed by 23 percent.

Those numbers are based on taking the consensus profit forecasts for each of the 500 companies and putting them together. Analysts are usually optimistic, but as Mr. Silverblatt says, “Let’s get real.”

It should be noted that these are operating earnings, which in practice still means companies can massage the numbers. (That’s not operating, it’s just a write-off of all those profits we never should have taken in years past.) Even so, it is one more indication that optimism runs deep in that crowd, no matter how pessimistic others may be.

> Here is one example of what will happen if you follow Wall Stett Finest without using common sense.....

> Hier kommt eines von vielen Beispielen was zwangsläufig passiert wenn man blindlings den sog. "Experten" folgt und nicht den gesunden Menschenstand benutzt.....

Brokers Trade Lower on Citi Call; Really?? Bespoke

Update via Barry Ritholtz Analysts' Profit Forecasts: Worse Than Ever!

finally the omnipresent Richard Bove ( "the citigroup dividend is safe"......) via FT Alphaville

This is Mr Bove’s forecasting record on Lehman this year: enthusiastic “buy” recommendations between February and April, capitulation in May, before moving to a neutral stance in June.

If the analyst believed it was a buy above $50 six months ago, it must be a screaming buy now the price has fallen 70 per cent.

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2 Comments:

Anonymous Clyde said...

Thanks for pointing out the fact set. Its a fluffed up world of misinformation out there. More money for me betting against these poseurs.

6:35 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Clyde,

indeed. The sad thing is that "Wall Street Finest" are everywhere.....

The estimates for the mainindex DAX are also from fantasyland.....

I assume this is true for almost every major market around the world...

9:41 PM  

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